­FPL Gameweek 18 Scout Picks: Liverpool + Arsenal triple-ups

Merry Christmas, one and all!

Squiffy on mint Baileys (that would explain a few selections), we have chosen our best Fantasy Premier League (FPL) players for Gameweek 18 ahead of Boxing Day’s 11:00 GMT deadline.

As usual, we are limited by certain restrictions in our selection:

• An £83.0m budget for our starting XI
• An overall squad limit of £100.0m
• No more than three players per team

GAMEWEEK 18 SCOUT PICKS

GOALKEEPER

In goal we have given the nod to David Raya (£5.6m), as Arsenal host second-from-bottom Ipswich on Friday. Although Ipswich have won two of their last three away matches, those victories came against Spurs and Wolves sides prone to kamikaze defending. 

By contrast the Gunners have the joint-best defence in the division, are unbeaten at home this season, and have not conceded in their last three appearances at the Emirates. 

Raya also weighs in with big saves. Only two goalkeepers have picked up more bonus points than the Spaniard, and only one has picked up more clean sheets.

DEFENDERS

Despite conceding eight goals in their last three matches Liverpool still have the joint-best defence in the Premier League. No team has kept more clean sheets and they can be trusted to keep out a woeful Leicester side this Gameweek. The Foxes have the third-worst away record and since Ruud van Nistelrooy took over have been the fifth-lowest scorers in the top flight. 

Virgil van Dijk (£6.5m) should therefore be able to help Liverpool keep their eighth clean sheet, while also posing an aerial threat at the other end. Only seven defenders have had more headed goal attempts than Virgil’s eight. Meanwhile, Leicester have allowed more headed and set-piece chances than any other team.

The thinking here is also that Arne Slot could feasibly manage the minutes of Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.1m) in this three-game week, where van Dijk is about as nailed as you can get in the English top tier.

Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.3m) continues to shine at the back for Arsenal. Since returning from injury he has picked up back-to-back returns – a clean sheet and maximum bonus in Gameweek 16 and an assist in Gameweek 17. 

No defender has had more headed goal attempts than Gabriel’s 13 or scored more headers (three) and his set-piece threat remains alive and well even in the absence of Bukayo Saka (£10.5m). Last time out, after Saka had gone off injured, the Brazilian thundered a Martin Odegaard (£8.3m) corner against the bar.

Manchester City’s travails are well known but Josko Gvardiol (£6.0m) can at the very least bring home defensive returns at home against Everton. Sean Dyche’s side have frustrated Arsenal, Chelsea and Brentford in recent matches, keeping five clean sheets across the last six Gameweeks, but they are not scoring many. 

They have failed to score in six of their last seven matches, and their focus will again be on defensive resolve rather than attacking enterprise. Gvardiol can help break that obduracy with his potent goal threat. Among defenders no one has scored as many goals, only Pedro Porro (£5.5m) has had more than his 23 shots and only two players have attempted more headed goals than the City man. 

MIDFIELDERS

Jarrod Bowen (£7.5m) has once again been West Ham’s highest-scoring player this season and his visit to rock bottom Southampton represents an opportunity rack up more returns. The south-coast side did manage to hold out for a draw at Fulham in Gameweek 17 thanks to a masterclass from Aaron Ramsdale (£4.4m), but Fulham’s 15 shots to Saints’ five should have translated into a victory for the Cottagers.

Over the last four Gameweeks, only three midfielders rank higher than Bowen for expected goal involvement (xGI) – 3.05 – and only four have attempted more than his 13 shots. In that timeframe Southampton have conceded 77 shots – the second-most in the league.

The West Ham midfielder is top at his club for crosses (17), chances created (nine) and shots and, owned by only 7.2 per cent of managers, is a nice differential.

A large number of managers shipped out Bryan Mbeumo (£7.6m) in Gameweek 14 due to Brentford’s fixture swing, but the Frenchman continued to deliver producing the sixth-highest points tally among midfielders across those four Gameweeks. Mbeumo consistently plays 90 minutes, takes corners from both sides and is on penalties.

He takes on a Brighton side who are winless in five matches, have won only three times at the Amex this season and in the last four Gameweeks are joint-top for errors leading to goals. They are also without a clean sheet in nine.

Some FPL managers may even be contemplating using their Triple Captain chip on Mohamed Salah (£13.5m) this Gameweek. Since the start of the season only two midfielders have attempted more shots than Salah, who has produced the most goals (15) and joint-most assists (11) of any player. 

In the last 11 Gameweeks the Liverpool midfielder has posted eight double-digit hauls, averaging 11.6 points per match, while in the last two Gameweeks no player has had more than his 11 shots. Leicester, meanwhile, have conceded 10 goals in four matches, and will seriously have their work cut out containing FPL’s most-owned asset.

Luis Diaz’s (£7.4m) exceptional performance against Spurs in Gameweek 17 leads us to believe he will be kept in Arne Slot’s starting XI to inflict more damage upon Leicester’s flimsy defence.

Part of the reason why we’re willing to take the risk is that Cody Gakpo (£7.1m) has started the last three matches in league and cup in an area of the field where rotation and managed minutes are commonplace. Diaz, by contrast, got a rest as recently as a week ago. A risk in the medium term but a short-term gamble with a high upside.

Most goal attempts by midfielders GW17

The big omission here is Cole Palmer (£11.3m) but his price tag was prohibitive. Opponents Fulham are tricky customers, too, holding Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur in recent weeks. With the likelihood that they’ll have at least one defensive midfielder fit (we would have thought again had the Cottagers been short of Messrs Lukic and Berge), going without the England international is a begrudging sacrifice we’ll have to make on our meagre budget – especially with Arsenal and Liverpool having excellent fixtures.

FORWARDS

Nottingham Forrest have achieved their highest Premier League points for this stage of the season, and this is in no small part down to the performances of Chris Wood (£6.6m), who is having the season of his life. The former Burnley forward is the joint-second highest scoring forward in the division with 10 goals and we fancy his chances of adding to that haul against Spurs.

The north London side are without both first-choice centre-halves and their first-choice goalkeeper, while their first-choice full-backs are running on fumes. That, combined with Ange Postecoglou’s insistence on “giving it a go, mate”, has made them very vulnerable at the back.

The Lilywhites have shipped 10 goals in two of the last three Gameweeks and could well come unstuck again against a Forest side who have won four of their last five, and four of their last five at home. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side love to play on the counter-attack so this match-up should suit Wood, who also takes penalties, down to the ground.

Fresh from scoring a hat-trick last time out, Alexander Isak (£9.0m) can add to his 10 goals this season against an Aston Villa side who struggle to keep goals out, managing only two clean sheets so far in 2024/25 – neither of which have been on the road.

The Newcastle forward has produced attacking returns in seven of the last nine Gameweeks and produced six goals and two assists in the last four. Since Gameweek 14, he also boasts more shots on goal than any forward in that time period. Unsurprisingly he is the most transferred-in player this Gameweek.

Most goal attempts by forwards Gameweeks 14-17

Gabriel Jesus (£6.8m) is reborn – just in time for Christmas –  and so makes our final entry into our Scout’s XI. Fresh from scoring a hat-trick against Crystal Palace in the EFL Cup last midweek, the Brazilian scored two more against the same team three days later. He looks, sharp, fast and dangerous in front of goal and can make the most of his rediscovered form at home against a struggling Ipswich side.

It remains unclear exactly where Jesus will play as Mikel Arteta is trying to work out how to reconfigure his side in the absence of the injured Saka. But Saka’s injury only strengthens the forward’s case for inclusion, and, having scored five goals, hit the post and missed a sitter in the course of the last two matches, Arteta will almost certainly station him where he can continue delivering end-product.

SUBSTITUTES

• Lukasz Fabianski (£4.1m): A cheap deputy but a goalkeeper facing the division’s lowest scorers this week.
• Tosin Adarabioyo (£4.2m): The former Fulham man should once again deputise for the injured Wesley Fofana (£4.4m) at centre-back for Chelsea. He’s had four shots in three starts since returning to the Blues XI in Gameweek 14.
• Dean Huijsen (£4.3m): Two goals in four starts for the budget Cherries defender, who has helped shut out Man Utd and Spurs already this month.
• Archie Gray (£4.6m): Not much left in the kitty for an attack-minded budget midfielder so our remaining budget is used up on Gray, a nailed starter while Spurs’ centre-halves are crocked. Listed as a midfielder, he’ll at least not be punished for the inevitable goal concessions.

THE CAPTAIN

We chose the Scout Picks captain using a vote between our Scout Squad panel.

• Neale: Salah, Diaz, Jesus
• Tom: Salah, Isak, Bowen
• Marc: Salah, Jesus, Isak
• Sam: Salah, Isak, Bowen

We’re handing Mohamed Salah the armband, with Alexander Isak our vice-captain.

COMMUNITY CHAMPION

A Fantasy Football Scout community member takes on the Scout Picks each week.

The community member who beats our team by the largest margin will win a £100 Amazon voucher. They’ll also get a place in our Moderators and Contributors League for the following season.

Boleyn Boy’s 80-44 victory in Gameweek 6 gave them the biggest win (36 points difference) of 2024/25 so far.

Our champion this week is FPL Blow In, who has gone for: Fabianski, Alexander-Arnold, Gabriel, Gvardiol, Salah (c), Fernandes, Bowen, Jota, Martinelli, Isak, Jesus.

FOLLOW THE SCOUT’S WEEKLY TRANSFER PLANS

We’re running a Scout FPL community team this season, with regulars like TopMarx, Tom Freeman, Marc Jobling and more contributing to the weekly decisions.

And we’re not just looking one week ahead like we are with the Scout Picks but instead planning in advance for the weeks and months to come.

You can follow our team via the Premier Fantasy Tools Pro Planner, which you can read more about here.

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