FPL Q&A: Chip strategy, Liverpool players + best defender

Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Q&A ahead of Gameweek 23. The topics include the top Liverpool picks, Triple Captain, wider chip strategy and best defenders outside of the two doubling Merseyside clubs.

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Q: Do you think it’s worth hitting the Triple Captain chip on Mohamed Salah at Bournemouth and Everton, or are you tempted to wait for a future opportunity and Double Gameweek?

Q. What are your thoughts on the best chip strategy to approach the upcoming doubles and blanks for someone who has all the chips remaining?

(via AC/DC AFC/STUCK IN THE MUDRYK)

A: I have all my chips remaining – Triple Captaincy, Bench Boost, Free Hit and Assistant Manager.

Let’s discuss the Assistant Manager chip first. I like the idea of using it on a lower-placed team to get the positional bonus rather than use it on somebody like Arne Slot in Gameweek 24. The upside feels higher and, I don’t think the fixtures from Gameweeks 24-26 are particularly easy to call from a result/clean sheet standpoint. I think Liverpool will score goals against Bournemouth and Manchester City but could end up drawing or even losing those games as well. If I went for Slot, I would probably use a transfer to avoid the Manchester City fixture in Gameweek 26. It all feels a bit much, especially when I think the fixtures in Double Gameweek 24 are still good for attacking returns from Salah. So, I plan to use my Triple Captain on the Egyptian international that week.

The picture for blanks in Gameweek 29 (caused by the Carabao Cup final) is still a little bit hazy. Yes, Newcastle United and Liverpool are favoured by the bookies to progress but as we know, anything can happen in football and I think it is too early to set in stone plans with that uncertainty in mind. That picture becomes clearer by Gameweek 25 so for the short term I am thinking just about the upcoming double. Only after that will I start making plans on when I want to Free Hit/Bench Boost and use my second Wildcard.

That being said, if I need to bring in an enabler to free up funds for say Joao Pedro (£5.6m) to Cody Gakpo (£7.5m), I would be more inclined to go for a player with an attractive fixture in Gameweek 29 – say Justin Kluivert (£5.6m) against Brentford or Anthony Elanga (£5.3m) against Ipswich Town.

There is some temptation to keep the Triple Captain for later but with all the chips to play and only so many weeks to play them, it feels right to use it now and keep the others open. We don’t know for sure if Liverpool will have another double and I am quite keen to use it on Salah this season. 

Q: Best Liverpool third asset after Mohamed Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold with the Double Gameweek in mind? Also other than Jordan Pickford, is anyone from Everton even worth considering?

Q. Is a third Liverpool asset essential?

(via CoracAld2831 and @Khokkosh1)

A: Liverpool are top for goals scored (19) over the last six Gameweeks and I just want to provide some context for how far and ahead their attacking numbers are from everybody else over that period. 

The Reds are first for shots (144); in second place are Chelsea with 104. They are top for big chances (33); Manchester City are second with 22. They are top for shots on target (51); Man City are second with 40. Finally, they are top for xG non-penalty (18.15); Newcastle are second with 12.43. The differences are absolutely massive. They have almost 50% xG more than the second-placed team!

They are top of the defensive charts as well with 4.06 non-penalty xG conceded but Arsenal (4.62), Brighton and Hove Alibon (5.22) and Fulham (5.59) are not too far off. 

So from the above numbers, you’d say maxing out on Liverpool assets is, while not ‘essential’, certainly appealing for a fixture run that reads Ipswich, Bournemouth & Everton, and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Right after that is Manchester City, who have their own defensive issues. 

Gakpo was an unused substitute in the UEFA Champions League and with Diogo Jota (£7.2m) ruled out for a short period, you would expect the Dutchman’s starting spot is secure at least in the short term. Yes, there is a possibility that Slot fields Darwin Nunez (£7.0m) at centre-forward with Luis Diaz (£7.5m) on the wing, but the chances of that are pretty slim.

As the below table shows, Gakpo’s expected goal involvement (xGI) numbers are not too far off popular picks like Anthony Gordon (£7.7m), Cole Palmer (£11.4m) and Bryan Mbeumo (£7.8m). The big chance involvement is still a bit lower than I’d like (four big chances + two big chances created) but he offers a mix of both goal threat and creativity.

The question is: how secure is his spot long term? If Jota can regain fitness (I know it’s a big if), then the potential for rotation especially when the Champions League knockout stages start increases. It doesn’t feel like a pick that you are going to be confident about long term. Still, I feel the upside over the next three Gameweeks is enough to justify the transfer. 

The next conundrum is do you do it this week, or wait for Gameweek 24? Liverpool have the highest goal projections this week (3.40 as per @robtfpl) and after the rest midweek, Gakpo should start. Liverpool’s kickoff being close to the FPL deadline also means we might get a potential leak. I think it makes sense to move this week and maximise your chance of catching that haul. I do understand the merit in waiting though. You get one, maybe two (if Liverpool play first-choice players in their UEFA Champions League dead rubber before Gameweek 24) matches’ worth of information to make a more informed decision. I guess it depends on who you would be selling. 

The defence also holds some appeal but of course, the third spot largely depends on your team structure. If you have David Raya (£5.6m), moving to Alisson (£5.5m) is an easy switch that doesn’t require funding. You might need another playing goalkeeper in Gameweek 29; Lukasz Fabianski (£4.1m) is starting now but we don’t know if he will be come mid-March. I’m just not a fan of premium goalkeepers though. 

Ibrahima Konate’s price point of £5.1m is also quite accessible if you’re selling someone like Antonee Robinson (£5.1m). The recent comments about painkillers and his past injury record worry me but it also emphasizes how much Slot distrusts Jarell Quansah (£3.9m) that they chose to rush Konate back. 

Virgil van Dijk (£6.4m) is a tougher one with his price tag. He’s ranked seventh for shots in the box (14) amongst defenders this season. That’s just two fewer than Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.4m), who we consider a significant goal threat. He’s scored just once but has landed five shots on target, the same as Gabriel. 

I like the Gameweek 23 (Ipswich) and 25 (Wolves) fixtures for clean sheets and maybe Everton away as well. Bournemouth, not so much. The appeal of van Dijk is he’s a set-and-forget pick with good fixtures all the way till Gameweek 33. For someone like me, with Gabriel and Alexander-Arnold already, it feels like a lot of money spent in defence. 

So if I were to rank them, apart from Salah and Alexander-Arnold, it would be Gakpo, van Dijk, Alisson, Diaz and Konate in that order. The defensive options appeal if you’re looking at a longer horizon.

With Everton, the switch to a back three – although it is only a one-game sample size – does appear to have given them more attacking impetus. Usually, when a new manager joins a struggling side, the first priority is to shore up the defence but in Everton’s case, that’s not really an issue. So I think David Moyes will try to add goals to the team and improve the service to Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.4m).

Now I’m not suggesting you bring in DCL with a view to play him every week. Far from it. He should only be an eighth attacker, somebody you can rotate in and out. For example, Ismaila Sarr (£5.8m) has Manchester United away in Gameweek 24, Fulham away in Gameweek 26 and Newcastle away (potential blank) in Gameweek 29). In those weeks, Calvert-Lewin has the Dounle Gameweek, Manchester United at home and West Ham United at home. I would like to watch Everton against Brighton this week before committing to that move though. Maybe it was just Spurs being Spurs last weekend. 

Apart from that, I wouldn’t be buying Vitalii Mykolenko (£4.3m) unless you can afford to hide him till Gameweek 29. The fixtures on the other side of Double Gameweek 24 are quite rough from a defensive standpoint. 

Q: Which defender to buy other than those from Liverpool and Everton?

(via @only_FPL_)

A: Daniel Munoz (£4.8m) is second for shots in the box (20) amongst defenders this season and top for big chances (eight). He’s been unlucky not to get any attacking returns over the last few matches and the potential for a haul very much exists. There is the possibility of a blank in Gameweek 29 but I wouldn’t let that put me off necessarily.

Dean Huijsen (£4.4m) is also interesting, with the fixtures for Bournemouth improving from Gameweek 25. 

Q: In Gameweek 24, would you use extra transfers to move Joao Pedro to Cody Gakpo or just do Chris Wood to Gakpo?

(via @iandavis101)

A: I don’t like the idea of selling Chris Wood (£7.1m), even with the difficult fixtures from Gameweek 25 onwards. He’s a talisman and on penalties for a side that are sitting third in the Premier League. Nuno Espirito Santo is channelling his inner Heisenberg – he is the difficult fixture.