In his latest article, two-time Indian Fantasy Premier League (FPL) champion Lateriser highlights some one-week punts for those on a Gameweek 31 Wildcard.
Right then, the end game is almost here. We’re about to be presented with a lot of information that is going to chart our paths in the next couple of weeks.
Based on the results of the FA Cup quarter-finals, as well as the subsequent fixture rescheduling, we will decide a lot of our chip strategy.
It is doubtful that we’ll get this information prior to Gameweek 30, which is why a lot of FPL managers are likely to Wildcard in Gameweek 31 (if we get the required information then).
This means that there are a lot of FPL managers in the market for a one-week punt, which is what I intend on focusing on in this article.
I will cover defence, midfield and attack with this piece.
WHAT THE MARKETS PREDICT
Let us have a look at Rob T’s graphic first and see what the markets are saying about Gameweek 30.
When it comes to goalscoring, the markets are predictably optimistic on Manchester City and Bournemouth. Both sides are at home to a bottom three club. Chelsea, Liverpool and Newcastle United are at 2+ projected goals as well. The team clocking the highest xG in the league in the last six weeks, Crystal Palace, are at 1.85 goals, despite facing the league’s most obliging team.
When it comes to clean sheets, Arsenal are at 50% despite facing a pretty good Fulham side. Liverpool, Manchester City and Newcastle United are above 40% clean sheet odds.
These are what the markets say but now let’s dive into some feelings and thoughts that I have with regards to the match-ups and one-week punts.
It is always worth noting that it is very difficult to get one-week punts correct as the results in a single Gameweek are pretty random. I did decently with my suggested Free Hit 29 team, however, so let’s give it a go.
KEEP AN EYE ON THE FA CUP
Given that three decent teams are facing the three promoted teams, this is where I’d want to punt if I could. It has proven to be a fruitful strategy of late.
One thing to keep in mind though is that all the three teams that we are talking about are playing in the FA Cup. If any of them are playing 120 minutes in the FA Cup (we’ve already seen Palace make it past Fulham without the need of extra time), we could expect some tired legs in the midweek fixtures.
CRYSTAL PALACE
With Crystal Palace, the top three picks are pretty straightforward.
Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.5m) and Daniel Munoz (£5.1m) are great options in their own right that don’t need a lot of explanation.
When it comes to the Eberechi Eze (£6.7m) vs Ismaila Sarr (£5.6m) debate, not only is Sarr cheaper but he also has more shots in the box and significantly more big chances.
While Eze has taken a lot more shots than Sarr, many of them are from outside the box. I still wouldn’t mind an Eze punt because the player is quality and hopefully he gets over his underperformance after two weeks off.
If you’re short of funds for Munoz, then it wouldn’t be a bad idea to go for his wing-back partner Tyrick Mitchell (£4.8m). He has created more chances than Munoz in the last six matches and has the same number of big chances as Munoz in the timeframe.
Unfortunately, I am in the market for a cheap defender (likely a Vitalii Mykolenko (£4.4m) replacement) and Chris Richards (£4.4m) from the Eagles’ backline is a pretty good shout. He has a significant set-piece threat and is good for minutes.
MANCHESTER CITY
When it comes to Manchester City, Erling Haaland (£14.8m) is a big doubt. So, where else do you go? I’ve been an Omar Marmoush (£7.3m) owner for a few weeks and do think there is significant upside. Phil Foden (£9.2m) and Kevin De Bruyne (£9.3m) are both threats to his game-time but Haaland’s injury potentially lessens the risk and I do think Marmoush presents the highest upside from all the attackers.
Manchester City have everything to play for in the league to secure a top-five place, so you would expect Pep to not rotate much.
In defence, Josko Gvardiol (£6.0m) hasn’t had much attacking threat of late due to the other full-back inverting but I do like the idea of a low-cost punt on Abdukodir Khusanov (£5.0m) if you can’t afford the Croatian.
That said, in defence I do prefer the Crystal Palace wing-backs as well as a rested Milos Kerkez (£5.2m), who is suspended for the FA Cup game against Bournemouth. They are all capable of points on both sides of the pitch.
OTHERS TO CONSIDER
A left-field shout that I do like is Kieran Trippier (£5.6m), who has put in two impressive displays in the last two games. He has even reminded us of his historic love for bonus points, accruing two in the last league match. I think he might be in the thinking of a fair few Wildcarders.
Chelsea play a Tottenham Hotspur team that is more than capable of scoring, otherwise Marc Cucurella (£5.2m) would be right towards the top of my list as. He almost looks like Chelsea’s likeliest goalscorer these days.
Speaking of Chelsea, I do fancy Cole Palmer (£10.8m) and Nicolas Jackson (£7.7m) to be in the starting line-up against a leaky Spurs team. There is some goalscoring potential in that game. The Blues have posted encouraging underlying numbers and I think a two week break will do Palmer (if fit) a world of good.
With regards to Chelsea team news, we will have to rely on local media as Enzo Maresca’s side don’t play before Thursday. It is very possible that we won’t have a Maresca press conference before the FPL deadline on Tuesday, therefore.
If we’re in the market for cheap attackers, the likes of Evanilson (£5.7m) and Justin Kluivert (£6.3m) are right up there in my opinion. They should be safe for minutes, as well, provided they don’t play 120 minutes against Manchester City.
Before I end this article, I do want to give one left-field shout: Jarrod Bowen (£7.6m). He’s my real gut-feeling pick for Gameweek 30. While West Ham United have shown more promise defensively than in attack (they are in the wrong half of the table for xG in the last six games), Graham Potter’s system got Bowen in all the right positions in their last run-out against Everton and he really caught my eye.
What also caught my eye was Wolverhampton Wanderers’ unimpressive display against Southampton. They were really lucky to come away with three points, conceding a fair few chances to the Saints. He’s the one midfield punt that is all ‘vibes’, despite four other teams facing more obliging opposition.
I hope this article helped. Good luck with the planning (and one-week flinging)!
