Spot the Differential
19 April 2025 618 comments
Skonto Rigga Skonto Rigga
Share:

Gameweek 33 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us but there’s still time to pick out three more differentials.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Manchester City, Aston Villa and Fulham, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

To qualify, the player should have an ownership of 5% or less.

We’ve slightly bent the rules this time on Kevin De Bruyne (£9.3m), who was owned by under 4% of managers when we earmarked out differentials earlier this week but who has attracted nearly 400,000 transfers in since.

KEVIN DE BRUYNE

­­­FPL Gameweek 15 differentials: De Bruyne, Paqueta + Enzo 3

  • FPL ownership: 8.3%
  • Price: £9.3m
  • GW33-35 fixtures: eve + AVL | – | WOL

Given that he’s not in the Scout Picks, it felt remiss not to cover De Bruyne in some capacity this week.

Be it sentimentality or just desperation to tap into the City attack ahead of their Double Gameweek 33, the veteran Belgian is back in vogue.

The third-most-bought midfielder of the upcoming Gameweek, he’s more than doubled his ownership in the process.

De Bruyne was sublime in Gameweek 32, securing a 12-point haul in Manchester City’s 5-2 win over Crystal Palace.

He topped both the shot and key pass tables in that match, too:

Speaking after his starring role, the City stalwart said he was pain-free for the first time in a long time.

“It’s been a hard year. You know, having a hernia wasn’t fun but I think now I would say I’m basically pain-free for the last six weeks and that’s a massive difference playing with pain or no pain. It was hard but now I feel free, I’m able to do a lot of training sessions and I feel I can do a good job.” – Kevin De Bruyne

Currently, he’s operating in a roaming ‘false nine’ capacity – possibly to limit the amount of hard yards he has to put in, something he would be doing in a more orthodox central midfield role. The two wingers on either side of him are playing narrower and running beyond him:

There are two schools of thought.

One, that Guardiola is going to get as much out of De Bruyne as he can before the Belgian departs in the summer and give him a fitting, prominent farewell.

Or, the 33-year-old playmaker is just another pawn on Guardiola’s moving chessboard. The slippery City boss could go back to ‘wide wingers’ and an orthodox striker at the drop of a hat and/or merely manage his veteran midfielder’s minutes.

We can’t even guarantee two starts in Gameweek 33 (a start and a substitute appearance would be our best guess) but that may well be the case for most City attackers and indeed a lot of the Villa and Arsenal midfielders.

At least we know that when De Bruyne gets on the grass, he’s capable of the special.

YOURI TIELEMANS

­­­FPL Gameweek 6 differentials: Tavernier, Savinho + Tielemans 1
  • FPL ownership: 1.3%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW33-35 fixtures: NEW + mci | – | FUL

The ‘undroppable’ status of Morgan Rogers (£5.7m) has been widely discussed in recent weeks but there is another Aston Villa midfielder who has logged even more minutes than the England international in 2024/25.

Youri Tielemans (£5.5m) is the only Villan to start all 32 league matches for his club, completing 90 minutes on 25 of those occasions.

Unai Emery discussed both players’ durability last weekend.

“Some players are showing us their consistency, playing minutes and recovering. It is not easy to play at the level we demand in matches in a row without being injured.

“Youri and Morgan, they are being very important and consistent. I am always analysing if we can take some minutes to rest them, but until now they are being consistent and playing the demands we need.” – Unai Emery

Minutes aside, Tielemans is not the most glamorous of picks. He’s never managed more than 10 attacking returns in a single season, and is currently on eight for 2024/25.

Two of those have arrived in the last two Gameweeks, at least.

Tielemans’ recent underlying numbers haven’t been bad, either. Over the last six Gameweeks, he’s Villa’s leading chance creator (CC, below) and joint-second for shots (Tot, below):

differentials Gameweek 33

With Gameweek 33 opponents Newcastle United and Manchester City possessing two of the higher, more aggressive defensive lines in the division, Tielemans could find ample space in behind for his superb through-balls from central midfield.

differentials Gameweek 33

The Belgian is also on a share of set plays.

RYAN SESSEGNON

  • FPL ownership: 0.6%
  • Price: £4.1m
  • GW33-35 fixtures: CHE | sou | avl

Ryan Sessegnon (£4.1m) might be a pick that some FPL managers will want to hold fire on, with the really good stuff – Southampton (a) – not until next weekend. He could enter the Gameweek 34 Free Hit conversation in particular.

If you’re going early on the budget Fantasy defender, Chelsea aren’t exactly formidable foes right now. After nearly losing to Championship-bound Ipswich Town, the Blues fell to a 2-1 loss at home to Legia Warsaw on Thursday.

Enzo Maresca’s side are also winless in their last eight Premier League matches on the road.

differentials Gameweek 33

Above: Chelsea are bottom of the eight-match away form table

The Cottagers even turned over their neighbours at Stamford Bridge in December, winning 2-1.

Why Sessegnon? If you’ve not watched Fulham in the last few weeks, you may have missed the former Tottenham Hotspur defender playing ‘out of position’ on the right wing.

differentials Gameweek 33

After successive returns off the bench in Gameweeks 29 and 30, Sessegnon was rewarded with a start in the last home match against Liverpool and turned in a superb showing, scoring for the third time in five matches.

He unsurprisingly kept his place on Monday at Bournemouth. Don’t be spooked by his early withdrawal: that turned out to be a touchline admin error, something that sent Marco Silva apoplectic.

Those two starts have brought six shots in the box, a Fulham high over that period:

differentials Gameweek 33

Sessegnon has also had more than twice as many penalty area touches (16) as any teammate in the last two Gameweeks.

There’s obvious risk involved with Fulham well stocked with wingers but Sessegnon seems to hold the upper hand for now.



618 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Atimis
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Tempted to just roll the dice on Saka (c), City with not that easy fixtures and Marm yet to score away

    1. Super John McGinn-
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Think I’m going to do it, even if don’t start both got good chances to return

    2. Croaker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      That’s my plan. I think Saka has a higher ceiling with his fixtures and am crossing my fingers that he gets the minutes

    3. COYR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      I'm with you! Hopefully fortune favours the brave

    4. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Neale has benched Saka.

  2. JUST ONE LOMBARDO...
    • 8 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Only 3 players and one of them KDB. Hardly illuminating. Come on FFS.

    1. Skonto Rigga
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      It doesn't get more rock'n'roll than Youri Tielemans, haway

  3. Super John McGinn-
    • 13 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Decision for final transfer, bench boosting this week

    Raya,
    Gvardiol, Munoz, Kiwior
    Salah, Saka (C), Foden*, Rogers, Sarr
    Marmoush, Mateta

    Areloa, Isak, Kilman, Burn*

    1 FT 0.8 ITB

    A) Burn > Bradley/Konsa
    B) Foden > KDB
    C) Both for -4
    D) Other

    1. My heart goes Salalalalah
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      A with Bradley

    2. FantasyClub
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      C

    3. FantasyClub
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      With Bradley

    4. Fantasyfreaks
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      C with B

  4. FF Dirtbag
    • 14 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Savinho and Glasner -> Rashford and Pep worth a hit?

    Got 3x Mci, 3x arsenal and Rogers

    1. Atimis
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Would say so

      1. FF Dirtbag
        • 14 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Thansk atimis

    2. FantasyClub
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      I would say no since Rashford
      Isn’t exactly safe from rotation either and his fixtures are tough

      1. Atimis
        • 9 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Yeah so maybe someone else but overall not sure it’s worth keeping Glasner and Savinho a big minutes doubt as well

    3. Bggz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      yep

  5. FPLMACKEM
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Raya,
    Gvardiol, Munoz, Gabriel
    Salah, Palmer, Sarr, Murphy
    Isak, Mateta, Marmoush (c)

    Martinez, Burn, Rogers, Konsa

    3ft 0.3 it

    I'm thinking Palmer, Burn and Gabriel to Saka, Kiwior and Dias.Then play BB.

    What do you think? Yes or no?

    1. Hank Scorpio
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Seems ok to me.

    2. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Yep, looks good

    3. thom830g
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Nice

  6. Maddamotha
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    We sure Dias will play both in the double? Akinji back in training.

  7. Hank Scorpio
    • 13 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Triple captain dilemma between Saka and Marmoush....

    Saka has the fixtures, but doubts over full minutes.

    Marmoush is nailed to play, but games are tricky.

    I'm leaning towards Saka and hoping he gets plenty of game time to make the most of the fixtures.

    1. FantasyClub
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      What’s the rest of your team?

      I know you know but Sakas a big mind risk so it would put me off…

    2. FantasyClub
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Mins*

    3. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Marmoush

  8. FantasyClub
    • 4 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Lads I have Malen…

    Considering he couldn’t even get a start after no involvement in the UCL, is he a sell for a hit even ?

  9. sttewwizza
    • 14 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    A: Mbuemo
    or
    B: Luis Diaz

    1. DavvaMC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Diaz by a mile.

  10. Heavy Cream
    • 10 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Raya
    Saliba Munoz VVD
    Rogers Salah Saka Sarr Murphy
    Isak Marmoush

    Pedro

    Do I take a -4 to bring in Savinho for Murphy?

    1. Urban Cowboy.
      • 14 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      I wouldn't do it. Savinho not guaranteed to start.

  11. Bullet Eder
    • 10 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Is Kerkez to Munoz and Glasner to Pep worth a hit?

    1. Count of Monte Hristo
      • 12 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Arteta/Emery over Pep

      1. FF Dirtbag
        • 14 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Arteta I get. Why emery though?

  12. XX SMICER XX
    • 7 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Struggling to decide on 5th defender for BB. Trying to balance GW33 with fixtures for 35-38.

    Who would you go for out of this list?

    A. Hold Livramento - Newcastle in fine form
    B. Forest Defender - all to play for, underwhelming fixture to Spurs away
    C. West Ham defender - solid fixture in GW33
    D. Brentford Defender - decent fixtures, but on the beach?
    E. Villa double up - not the best fixtures and rotation (own Konsa)

    1. abaalan
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      A or C of those.
      Otherwise Konate (or Bradley)?

  13. pl4y8oi
    • 3 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Can someone help to advice, Watkins vs Mateta again? Based on the latest news...

    Many thanks! 😉

    1. Count of Monte Hristo
      • 12 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Don’t think either are great options but understand going for one since they double. Watkins is not getting the minutes so I would lean towards Mateta.

    2. XX SMICER XX
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      I’m on Mateta as I already own, if I had the luxury of transfer then I would consider Watkins over him

    3. Gizzachance
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Mateta getting subbed before 60, Watkins not getting starts, both don’t have great dgw
      Tough

    4. pl4y8oi
      • 3 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Thanks everyone, all great inputs, leaning now slightly towards Mateta then :))

  14. JBG
    • 7 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    On FH, who'd you rather have? (Already have Eze and Rogers)

    A) Mateta
    B) Watkins

    1. Maddamotha
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      A

    2. Count of Monte Hristo
      • 12 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      A

    3. XX SMICER XX
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      B

    4. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      A

  15. Gizzachance
    • 11 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    A livra to saliba
    B livra to kiwior
    1.8 difference, saliba will only leave 0.2 itb
    Have raya

    Cheers all

    1. XX SMICER XX
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Depends what you do with the money
      For example, B is better if you need cash for AM chip

  16. Weasel Boy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Any chance Diaz starts this week?.

    1. XX SMICER XX
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      For Liverpool? I would say 95%

  17. Halftime
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Any players worth a -4 this week?

    1. mookie
      • 12 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Salah and Marmoush are definitely worth a hit, don't know about the rest. Guess it depends who is one selling.

    2. FC Hakkebøf
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      If your chasing then yes, if not, then no. Except for maybe Saka and KDB.

    3. Halftime
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Thanks, I didn't sell wood or Isak for Marmoush since I might be short of players in the next GW.

  18. thom830g
    • 8 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    2 FT on BB
    A) Burn + Murphy -> B Johnson + Rogers
    B) Burn + Sarr -> Rogers + 4,5 def
    C) other?

    Team is
    Raya - Areola
    Burn - munoz - Gvardiol - Timber - konsa
    Savinho - Sarr - Murphy - salah - Saka
    Isak - Marmoush - mateta

    1. FC Hakkebøf
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      A

  19. FC Hakkebøf
    • 8 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Cash, Konsa or Digne?

  20. Nightcrawler
    • 6 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    FHing in 34

    A) Quansah ---> Kiwior for -4

    B) Start Milenkovic instead

  21. Seaman
    • 2 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Play Robinson or Saliba/Kiwior (-4)?

    GL

  22. Urban Cowboy.
    • 14 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Do you think Trent comes back in or plays bench cover for Bradley for the next few weeks?

  23. Return of the FF
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Why is Bradley an option? Surely TAA back?

    1. XX SMICER XX
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Good option for this week only

    2. mookie
      • 12 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Some will WC in 35 or don't need to play him for the rest of the season.

  24. AD105
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    G2G?

    Have 1 FT and 0.6 ITB but do not have a FH to use next week, otherwise I’d bin Palmer for Saka/KDB

    AM - Arteta

    Raya
    Munoz Konsa Gvardiol
    Salah Palmer Sarr Rogers
    Isak Marmoush Mateta

    Areola Murphy Kerkez Gabriel*

    1. Eze Come, Eze Go
      • 1 Year
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Looks good. I’d save the transfer.

      1. AD105
        • 9 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Would you roll or consider either of the below?

    2. AD105
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Other options are

      Gabriel > Saliba
      Palmer > Bowen

  25. Eze Come, Eze Go
    • 1 Year
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Thoughts? All GTG? Would you swap out any on the bench to start?

    Henderson
    Saliba - Gvardiol - Ait-Nouri
    Bowen - Saka - Salah - Murphy
    Mateta - Marmoush (C) - Isak

    Arteta / Fabianski - Elanga - Milenkovic - Robinson

  26. Connor's Calling
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Come on then....Decision time. Who to (C)? I'm chasing 100 point deficit. They don't have Saka.

    A) Saka. Prob gets 90-100mins over ips CPL
    B) Marmoush. Prob gets 150mins+ over eve AVL

    1. WVA
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Salah with 90 v Leicester!?

      1. Connor's Calling
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        going to roll the dice on a doubler i think

    2. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      A

  27. abaalan
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Bb active, fh34 2 ft, 3.6 itb
    A. Murphy > rashford
    B. Murphy > Bowen
    C..livra > Dias
    D. Livra > konate
    E. Both

  28. Count Olaf
    • 1 Year
    7 months, 21 days ago

    My plan was to captain Marmoush, but the fact he is leading the captaincy poll makes me have second thoughts, even though I understand this site represents a small sample of FPL managers.
    I'm chasing, so is that enough of a reason to captain Salah (no interest in Saka or DeBruyne) instead or do you think captaincy will be divided and gains can still be made with Marmoush captain?

    1. MADCHESTER UTD
      • 10 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      I’m thinking of totally going rogue and captaining trossard. I reckon he plays striker vs Ipswich and will play similar mins to saka

      1. Count Olaf
        • 1 Year
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Interesting differential. I don't have him, but could turn out great.

  29. thom830g
    • 8 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Last one.
    A) Savinho + Burn -> Rogers + Bradley
    B) Burn + Murphy -> Rogers + B Johnson

    2 FT

  30. TSN
    • 8 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Will use AM this gw, who should i pick?

    1. MADCHESTER UTD
      • 10 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Arteta if haven’t already got triple Arsenal. Boring pick but should get decent points