The received wisdom has it that each season’s final day of Premier League action is a frenzy of attacking football.
As we enter Gameweek 38 of 2024/25, let’s see if Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers are right to expect a goal-fest.
If so, some exciting differential punts are about to look even more attractive.
But are these high-scoring climaxes just a myth?
Let’s study the goals and clean sheets of the last 14 season-enders, which is as far back as the data goes in our Premium Members Area.
FINAL DAY GOALS
| GW38 GOALS PER GAME | SEASON AVERAGE (PER GAME) | GW38 CLEAN SHEETS | SEASON AVERAGE (PER GW) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | ? | 2.94 (after GW36) | ? | 4.67 (after GW36) |
| 2023/24 | 3.7 | 3.28 | 4 | 4.13 |
| 2022/23 | 3.3 | 2.85 | 3 | 5.45 |
| 2021/22 | 3.9 | 2.82 | 2 | 5.58 |
| 2020/21 | 3.1 | 2.69 | 6 | 5.89 |
| 2019/20 | 3.3 | 2.72 | 3 | 5.45 |
| 2018/19 | 3.6 | 2.82 | 5 | 5.45 |
| 2017/18 | 3.1 | 2.68 | 6 | 5.95 |
| 2016/17 | 3.7 | 2.80 | 4 | 5.63 |
| 2015/16 | 3.5 | 2.70 | 2 | 5.66 |
| 2014/15 | 2.9 | 2.57 | 7 | 5.89 |
| 2013/14 | 2.8 | 2.77 | 4 | 6.11 |
| 2012/13 | 3.6 | 2.80 | 4 | 5.26 |
| 2011/12 | 3.2 | 2.81 | 4 | 5.42 |
| 2010/11 | 3.2 | 2.80 | 5 | 5.03 |
While acknowledging the small sample, there is seemingly some weight behind the theory. The final day of all 14 seasons contained more goals per game than that season’s average, with only 2013/14 being a close-run thing.
Each of the most recent nine campaigns has produced at least 30 goals on the final day, peaking at 2021/22’s 39.
It therefore follows that there is a lower-than-average number of clean sheets on the final day. On only three of the 14 final Gameweeks was the clean-sheet average exceeded.
Unlike last season, when a record 1,239 goals were scored, 2024/25 has not been quite as free-scoring. Nonetheless, we are on course to see more goals scored than each of the 13 campaigns prior to 2023/24.
It therefore follows that clean sheets are up on last year. There have been 168 shutouts after 36 Gameweeks (compared with 149 by the same stage last season), taking the goals conceded per game average up from 4.10 to 4.66. But this figure is down on the preceding seasons by a distance, demonstrating the growing trend of attacks increasingly getting the better of defences.
HIGH-SCORING MATCHES
These are the Gameweek 38 games that produced at least six goals:
- Manchester United 4-2 Blackpool – 2010/11
- Newcastle United 3-3 West Bromwich Albion – 2010/11
- West Bromwich Albion 5-5 Manchester United – 2012/13
- West Ham United 4-2 Reading – 2012/13
- Leicester City 5-1 Queens Park Rangers – 2014/15
- Stoke City 6-1 Liverpool – 2014/15
- Newcastle United 5-1 Tottenham Hotspur – 2015/16
- Chelsea 5-1 Sunderland – 2016/17
- Hull City 1-7 Tottenham Hotspur – 2016/17
- Tottenham Hotspur 5-4 Leicester City – 2017/18
- Crystal Palace 5-3 Bournemouth – 2018/19
- Leicester City 2-4 Tottenham Hotspur – 2020/21
- Arsenal 5-1 Everton – 2021/22
- Southampton 4-4 Liverpool – 2022/23
- Brentford 2-4 Newcastle – 2023/24
- Luton Town 2-4 Fulham – 2023/24
One of the most memorable final-day fixtures is surely Sir Alex Ferguson’s last match as Manchester United manager, when The Hawthorns played host to an epic 5-5 draw between that season’s champions and West Bromwich Albion.
Maybe there could be a similarly high-scoring affair this season, too, with United desperate to pull the plug on their most miserable season on record and Villa gunning for a top-five finish.
FPL managers will recall some big individual scores on Gameweek 38. Who can forget Kevin De Bruyne (£9.6m) bringing in two goals, an assist and 19 points during Manchester City’s 5-0 closer of 2019/20? Last season, Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.6m) fared even better still, giving his owners a memorable send-off with a hat-trick and 20 points in Crystal Palace’s 5-0 drubbing of Aston Villa. Also last season, Dejan Kulusevski (£6.2m) and Harry Wilson (£5.2m) piled the misery on relegated Sheffield United and Luton Town with respective 16 and 15-pointers.
GAMEWEEK 38 FIXTURES
Targeting the teams destined for relegation has been an ever more popular tactic this season, with managers exploiting the long, losing streaks of Leicester, Southampton and Ipswich. A similar ploy could prove fruitful on the final day this season.
Arsenal may still be looking to avoid a disastrous slip out of the top five when they visit Southampton (that’ll hinge on this Sunday’s result) and so will lay siege to Aaron Ramsdale’s (£4.4m) goal in Gameweek 38.
Attack-minded Bournemouth could also have fun at home to Leicester. Evanilson (£5.8m) and Antoine Semenyo (£5.7m) are good bets to get among the goals, while West Ham’s in-form midfielder Jarrod Bowen (£7.7m) will be looking to add to his scoring run at doomed Ipswich.
A similar approach should be considered for the opponents of Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, who have endured their most miserable ever Premier League campaigns. With the Europa League final having already been decided by Gameweek 38, assets from Aston Villa and Brighton could be in for an absolute field day. Ollie Watkins (£9.0m), Morgan Rogers (£5.7m) and Danny Welbeck (£5.5m) will all be rubbing their hands ahead of their final day outings.
All in all, everything suggests Gameweek 38 will be yet another goal bonanza.
1 month, 8 days agoNeed two differential defenders. Recommendations please?