Gameweek 38 offers Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers a final opportunity to identify a differential, which could help inspire a final push up the rankings.
This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Arsenal, Brighton and Hove Albion and West Ham United, who we think have the potential to make an impact.
To qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less.
RICCARDO CALAFIORI
- FPL ownership: 1.3%
- Price: £5.8m
- GW38 fixture: sou
While Arsenal’s attack has faltered this year, their defensive record remains resolute.
Indeed, Mikel Arteta’s side have the meanest defence in the Premier League, conceding just 33 goals in 37 games, seven fewer than champions Liverpool.
With that in mind, we’ve turned to Riccardo Calafiori (£5.8m) as our headline selection.
The Italian’s debut season in north London has been hampered by injuries, but when on the pitch, he’s shown promise, with his front-footed approach and technical ability catching the eye.
Compared with other Arsenal defenders in 2024/25 (minimum five starts), Calafiori is placed first for minutes per shot (94.7), while his ability to step out of the defensive line and into midfield underscores his playmaking potential.
With William Saliba (£6.5m), Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.1m) and Jurrien Timber (£5.6m) ruled out due to injury, Calafiori is likely to start against Southampton in Gameweek 38.
The Saints have scored just two goals in their last six matches, a period which has seen them generate only 3.43 expected goals (xG), the fewest in the division, so the omens for defensive returns appear strong.
Simon Rusk’s side also rank poorly for headed opportunities conceded over the same timeframe, which could play into the hands of Calafiori, who is a serious aerial threat from dead-ball situations.
Offering the chance of both defensive and attacking returns in Gameweek 38, Calafiori could therefore be a real difference maker on the final day.
BRAJAN GRUDA
- FPL ownership: 0.0%
- Price: £5.4m
- GW38 fixture: tot
Brajan Gruda (£5.4m) is an intriguing differential option for Gameweek 38.
The 20-year-old attacking midfielder has had a tough first season in England, but it finally feels like he is starting to acclimatise to the pace of the Premier League and, perhaps most importantly, Fabian Hurzeler’s demands.
Gruda caught the eye against Liverpool on Monday, claiming the assist for Yasin Ayari’s (£5.0m) equaliser, as he combined four shots with five chances created and nine penalty box touches.
“Yes, I think it was an impressive performance. Now he’s starting to get the reward for his hard work in the training sessions, for the sacrifices he has made during the season. He has to adapt to the culture, he has to adapt to a different country, to a different intensity. He had to sacrifice but he never gave up. He worked hard, he deserved to play today. I’m very happy for him.” – Fabian Hurzeler on Brajan Gruda
Prior to that, Gruda netted his first goal for the club at Molineux in Gameweek 36, which followed last month’s pair of assists against West Ham United.
Above: Brajan Gruda’s key passes and assists in just 112 minutes of football over the last four Gameweeks
Opponents Tottenham Hotspur, whose UEFA Europa League trophy parade through the streets of north London will take place on Friday, have conceded 16 goals across their previous six matches, the most of any top-flight team.
The Lilywhites are also among the worst two sides for big chances conceded over that period, with 20.
As for Gruda, perhaps we’ll hear if he starts amongst all the pre-deadline mayhem on Sunday. If he does, the youngster fits the profile of a potentially explosive differential.
MOHAMMED KUDUS
- FPL ownership: 2.5%
- Price: £6.2m
- GW38 fixture: ips
After producing an attacking return in each of his last two away appearances, Mohammed Kudus (£6.2m) could be a powerful differential in Gameweek 38.
West Ham boss Graham Potter is likely to use the Ghanaian as a mobile split striker in a 3-5-2, a tactic he tends to deploy on the road.
It’s a system that seems to suit Kudus, who has racked up 15 shots across his last six matches, the most of any Hammers player.
Above: Mohammed Kudus’ shot map over the last six Gameweeks
Kudus’ minutes per shot (37.6 to 34.7) and minutes per chance created (90 to 83) are both up from last season, when he supplied eight goals, nine assists and 137 points.
He also ranks second in the division this season for successful dribbles, with 91.
Owned by just 2.5% of managers, Kudus could therefore be a key influence against relegated Ipswich Town on Sunday.
The Tractor Boys are the only club yet to keep a clean sheet in 2025.
They are also bottom for key passes conceded from their right flank in that period, which amplifies Kudus’ assist potential.
So for Fantasy managers who perhaps can’t afford Jarrod Bowen (£7.9m), or maybe just want to try something different, Kudus could prove particularly appealing.
