Spot the Differential
11 September 2025 315 comments
avfc82 avfc82
Share:

Spot the Differential highlights three players who all have an ownership of 5% or less in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).

This time, we have chosen low-owned picks from Aston Villa, Bournemouth and West Ham United, who we think have the potential to make an impact in Gameweek 4 and beyond.



HARVEY ELLIOTT

­­­FPL Gameweek 38 differentials: Eze, Trossard + Elliott 1

  • FPL ownership: 0.3%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW4-8 fixtures: eve | sun | FUL | BUR | tot

With Aston Villa in desperate need of creativity, it could be the perfect time to bring in budget midfielder Harvey Elliott (£5.4m).

It’s been a surprisingly slow start for Unai Emery’s side, who have failed to score in any of their first three matches (NEW, bre, CRY), having generated only 2.53 expected goals (xG).

However, the fixture outlook is very positive.

Villa visit the Hill Dickinson Stadium on Saturday, before taking on Sunderland, Fulham and Burnley in further favourable matchups before the next international break.

Saturday afternoon’s trip to Everton looks particularly promising from an attacking perspective. It’s still early days, but David Moyes’ side sit among the worst three sides for StatsBomb xG conceded this season:

As for Villa, the deadline day arrival of Elliott should add some much-needed quality and intensity to their attacking play.

Despite finding regular minutes hard to come by at Liverpool, Elliott often impressed, netting three goals in five UEFA Champions League appearances last season. He was also named the player of the tournament at the U21 European Championship in the summer.

Elliott isn’t 100% nailed-on to start in Gameweek 4, but he perfectly fits the profile Villa have been seeking this summer, and there is a strong possibility that he will feature off the right or in a No 10 role. Even if he starts wider, he’ll look to drift infield and get on the ball in more central areas.

“For me, now, it’s about kicking on as a player. The only way to do that is to play games and there’s no better place to do that than here, especially with the manager, his philosophy, the way he plays and his trust in younger players.” – Harvey Elliott

Notably, Elliott’s threat from distance could be key at Everton on Saturday – no side has conceded more shots from outside the box than the Toffees’ this season, with 21.

ADRIEN TRUFFERT

  • FPL ownership: 1.1%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW4-8 fixtures: BHA | NEW | lee | FUL | cry

Owned by just over 1% of Fantasy managers, Adrien Truffert (£4.5m) has made an impressive start to his Bournemouth career.

Slotting in seamlessly for Milos Kerkez (£6.0m) at left-back, he took up his most advanced position of the season so far during his recent home match against Wolverhampton Wanderers:

The fact that he received 19 passes in the final third, the most of any player except Antoine Semenyo (£7.4m), and attempted six crosses from open play provides further optimism, particularly with back-to-back home encounters on the horizon.

Crucially, Gameweek 4 opponents Brighton and Hove Albion have conceded a league-high 15 chances down their right flank this season, compared to just one on the left (see image below).

That is something Truffert and Semenyo will surely look to take advantage of.

“We have a good understanding and have been training since the start of pre-season. The boy can run!” – Antoine Semenyo on Adrien Truffert

“We believe a lot. He was playing against a player who is very good. I think he was exceptional. He was cramping at the end. He combined very well with Antoine on the left side.” – Andoni Iraola on Adrian Truffert, speaking after Bournemouth’s 1-0 victory over Tottenham Hotspur in Gameweek 3

Bournemouth’s clean sheet prospects look reasonably promising, too.

The Cherries have already shut out Wolves and Tottenham Hotspur this term, and in the 2024/25 season, conceded just 16 goals on home turf, the joint-fewest of any team in the Premier League.

Additionally, the fixture list remains kind for Bournemouth all the way up to the end of October, so Truffert appears a good option for the longer term.

LUCAS PAQUETA

  • FPL ownership: 2.4%
  • Price: £5.9m
  • GW4-8 fixtures: TOT | CRY | eve | ars | BRE

Another player who has been producing points over the past two Gameweeks is Lucas Paqueta (£5.9m).

The Brazilian scored a fine strike from outside the box against Chelsea in Gameweek 2, before rolling home a penalty in the 3-0 win over Nottingham Forest prior to the international break.

During this timeframe, Paqueta has racked up five shots and three key passes.

He’s also recorded 32 defensive contributions (DefCons) this season, which earned him two extra points in Gameweek 3.

Observing Paqueta, it is evident that a weight has been lifted from his shoulders after he was cleared of spot-fixing, and he is clearly coming into form after a disrupted 2024/25 campaign.

“He’s a player that we understand, we love, his quality is incredible. Our challenge is to help him bring that out to the best of his ability, to fit with what we’re trying to do. If we can do that he’s a massive asset for us.” – Graham Potter on Lucas Paqueta

Tottenham Hotspur could prove to be the ideal opponents for Paqueta in Gameweek 4. The Lilywhites have conceded 11 key passes from the middle-third this season, the second-most of any team.

The fact that Paqueta also faces Crystal Palace, Everton, Brentford and Leeds United in the next six Gameweeks makes him an interesting option, particularly with so many routes to points, including penalties, open play assist potential and DefCons.

With his ownership currently sitting at just 2.4%, Paqueta could be the perfect option for those looking for an Ismaila Sarr (£7.5m) replacement.  


315 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. rtrepa
    • 1 Year
    5 months, 18 days ago

    Would you Free Hit with this team? (All other chips left)

    1 FT, 1.8M ITB

    Sels (Dubravka)
    Muñoz, Murillo, Van der Ven (Diouf, Estéve)
    Salah, B. Fernandes, Gakpo, Reijnders, King
    João Pedro, Watkins (Wood)

    No injuries, but I'm unhappy with triple Forest and not worth transfering them out with the next GWs

    1. Bushwhacker
      • 6 Years
      5 months, 18 days ago

      I'm sticking, suggest you do too. Still in random returns era of FPL, everyone back from International break so anything could happen. Seems a waste of a FH.

      1. Magic Zico
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 months, 18 days ago

        This

  2. Zinadine_Gerrard
    • 8 Years
    5 months, 18 days ago

    Rogers and Mateta or Elliot/Reijnders and Gyokeres?

    1. HellasLEAF
      • 16 Years
      5 months, 18 days ago

      I'm going B and rolling the dice on Gyok. Arsenal typically will disappoint but I can't help myself.

    2. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 months, 18 days ago

      WC?

      1. Zinadine_Gerrard
        • 8 Years
        5 months, 18 days ago

        Yup, going Haaland no Salah

  3. _Greg
    • 15 Years
    5 months, 18 days ago

    Start King or Reijnders?

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 months, 18 days ago

      Reijnders

    2. HellasLEAF
      • 16 Years
      5 months, 18 days ago

      Coin flip this might be the fixture for King.

    3. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 months, 18 days ago

      King

  4. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 months, 18 days ago

    Bottomed. Happens a lot lately!
    Think I'll be doing the following:

    Sarr > Semenyo
    Guiu > Mateta
    Milenkovic > Munoz (-4)

    Not a fan of Forest defense just wasting away in my squad and this week feels as good to roll on it as any.

    Sanchez
    Porro Munoz Richards
    Salah Bruno Semenyo Reijnders
    Watkins Pedro Mateta
    Dubravka // Anderson Murillo Esteve

    Only choosing to sell Milenkovic over Murillo as the latter more assured starts? He probably would drop in price earlier though - what do you think, sell Milenkovic or Murillo?

  5. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    5 months, 18 days ago

    Have Sarr and Strand Larson ...
    Would you...
    A) Williams to Munoz and play Diouf vs TOT and play 442
    B) Sarr to Paqueta/Reijnders ( play Williams or Diouf)
    C) Both for a hit

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 months, 18 days ago

      A I would feel best about doing.
      B for a hit feels punty.

  6. Punty McPuntface
    • 9 Years
    5 months, 18 days ago

    Which Palace defender is best for the long term?

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 months, 18 days ago

      Munoz or Lacroix toss-up. Feels like you'd be more likely to 'play' Munoz's returns than Laxcrois's (DefCon but tougher fixtures). More fun pick too?

      Maybe Europe takes more of a troll on Munoz this year, however.

    2. HellasLEAF
      • 16 Years
      5 months, 18 days ago

      I want to believe Munoz is worth the extra, I am almost forcing myself to make space for him.

      Only to be outdone by an MG goal or assist and Munoz blank.

    3. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 months, 18 days ago

      I wonder if Guehi at 4.6m is decent enough

      1. HellasLEAF
        • 16 Years
        5 months, 18 days ago

        Probably is. But Munoz playing further forward, possibly more assists potential, is tempting me..

        1. Sun Jihai
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          5 months, 18 days ago

          Munoz definitely more exciting, I just wonder if the funds will be needed later on, I'm pretty sure I want to pivot to Haaland / Isak / JP or Gyokeres up top which is expensive!

    4. Haa-lala-land
      • 5 Years
      5 months, 18 days ago

      My heart says Munoz
      My head says Lacroix
      My wallet says Guehi

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        5 months, 18 days ago

        Wallet should say Richards 😛

      2. HellasLEAF
        • 16 Years
        5 months, 18 days ago

        LOL. Top post. And, exactly my dilemma right now.

    5. F4L
      • 11 Years
      5 months, 18 days ago

      Lacroix imo, and then add munoz if you're happy with the double up. for 5mil lacroix just too appealing

  7. Bushwhacker
    • 6 Years
    5 months, 18 days ago

    Onana on loan to Trabzonspor has to go down as one of the most bizarre sagas ever.

    1. _Greg
      • 15 Years
      5 months, 18 days ago

      At least he's getting more money for the Andre Onana Foundation.

  8. 420king
    • 11 Years
    5 months, 18 days ago

    In a spot of bother with Saka.
    If I sell, I would start the replacement and bench Reinjders - is that even worth it?
    On the other hand, don't think it makes sense losing more money, specially with WC intact.

    1. HellasLEAF
      • 16 Years
      5 months, 18 days ago

      Depends on his fitness early on.

    2. Bushwhacker
      • 6 Years
      5 months, 18 days ago

      Was training if not with the team ; I'd hold

  9. F4L
    • 11 Years
    5 months, 18 days ago

    why are Bournemouth CBs so good for defcon (iirc Huijsen wouldve been very good for them last season)? just lots of quick turnovers of possession in their matches?

    1. _Greg
      • 15 Years
      5 months, 18 days ago

      The press aggressively, so perhaps opponents try long balls and Senesi heads it away?

      1. F4L
        • 11 Years
        5 months, 18 days ago

        true, must play a part. bit like vvd maybe idk. just very different to palace/brentford/everton etc for their defcon beasts

    2. Haa-lala-land
      • 5 Years
      5 months, 18 days ago

      I'm trying to figure out if it's the opposition teams styles that they've been facing, rather than the Bournemouth defenders themselves, that cause it. Obviously I've got nowhere with this theory.

      1. F4L
        • 11 Years
        5 months, 18 days ago

        hmm maybe, not sure. think last season their cbs were solid throughout as well

        the fact senesi hit it vs 10 man wolves (for 45 mins) is abit wild

        1. Haa-lala-land
          • 5 Years
          5 months, 18 days ago

          Look at Adli, Bournemouths new wide man, he got 6 defcons in 24 minutes in GW2 and 11 defcons in 26 minutes in GW3, when he came on as sub. He's not even supposed to be defensive.

          1. F4L
            • 11 Years
            5 months, 18 days ago

            true, fair points. either way definitely promising signs from Bournemouth so far on the defcon front

  10. HellasLEAF
    • 16 Years
    5 months, 18 days ago

    Grealish or Dewsburry-Hall and funds to upgrade a 4.0.

    I mean, Grea is the flashy pick, but Hall could end up more involved in the returns or be just as steady and cheaper.

  11. Whiskerz
    • 12 Years
    5 months, 18 days ago

    How's the WC looking?

    Raya / Dub
    Guehi / Calafiori / Porro / Sensei / Gudmunsson
    Enzo / Semenyo / Eze / Gakpo / Elliott
    Ekitike / Haaland / Pedro

    Money itb for Ekitike > Isak when needed

    1. HellasLEAF
      • 16 Years
      5 months, 18 days ago

      A lot to talk about, but let me ask about Cala as am also on WC. All this talk of rotation incoming soon. Feel like one should have had and not chase?

      1. HellasLEAF
        • 16 Years
        5 months, 18 days ago

        I want to bring him in as well, over Gabriel, but fear his getting pulled at 54 min or something or coming off bench.

        1. Whiskerz
          • 12 Years
          5 months, 18 days ago

          I'd have to give up value elsewhere to move to Gabriel. Either dropping raya to pope/vicario or eze to xavi/6.5ish. And I dont want to make either of those downgrades. Based on that i think I'm willing to risk it, temporarily.

    2. Bushwhacker
      • 6 Years
      5 months, 18 days ago

      Nice

  12. The-Red-1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 months, 18 days ago

    Is Isak really expected to not get any minutes on the weekend? I've got him in my team, surely he will get some game time, and that could mean danger for tired legs!

    1. Bushwhacker
      • 6 Years
      5 months, 18 days ago

      Ten minutes max.

    2. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 months, 18 days ago

      15-20 minutes I would guess

    3. F4L
      • 11 Years
      5 months, 18 days ago

      he looked sharp in (albeit) highlights of liverpool training the other day

      think 15-20 mins is likely, especially if the match is already won by 65-70

  13. Soyland
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    5 months, 18 days ago

    Sels
    Porro, Cucurella, Konsa
    Bruno, Semenyo, Gakpo, Rejnders
    Haaland, J. Pedro, Watkins

    Dubravka, P.M.Sarr, Rodon, N.Williams

    Planed from the start to FH this round, getting Salah for cap, pool in general, arsenal and Palace. I'm not sure if it is worth it now because Haaland looks like a better cap these days. Thoughts?

    P.s. Also have 1 ft left and 1,5 itb.

  14. Sun Jihai
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    5 months, 18 days ago

    I think when I WC it would currently look something like this:

    Petrovic Dubravka
    Gabriel Lacroix VdB Tosin Rodon
    Mbeumo Semenyo Eze Xavi Elliot
    Haaland Isak JP

    But a little early, want Iask to be starting, to see what Xavi is like, Elliott etc. But that's my current thinking around say GW7.
    This year it really feels like who the best mids are is really uncertain, even the standout one so far (Semenyo) was frustrating to own for a lot of last season!

  15. Vazza
    • 5 Years
    5 months, 18 days ago

    Which combo is better lads:

    A. Semenyo • KDH
    B. Paqueta • Ndiaye (or Enzo)

  16. Punned It
      5 months, 18 days ago

      I'm kind of stuck. On WC, Raya or Vicario? Was dead set on the latter, but now the allure of Arsenal defence becons. The 0.5 doesn't really matter all that much right now.

      1. Vazza
        • 5 Years
        5 months, 18 days ago

        For me, Raya is a shoe in

      2. estheblessed
        • 11 Years
        5 months, 18 days ago

        Raya yea

        1. Punned It
            5 months, 18 days ago

            Cheers, chaps.

        2. Bushwhacker
          • 6 Years
          5 months, 17 days ago

          I may want three Arsenal outfield. Doubt that's the case with Spurs.

      3. Vazza
        • 5 Years
        5 months, 18 days ago

        Which combo is better lads:

        A. Semenyo • KDH
        B. Paqueta • Ndiaye (or Enzo)
        C. Xavi • Elliot

        1. Punned It
            5 months, 18 days ago

            I'm not a huge fan of either combo, but I do like the look of Semenyo, so A.

        2. estheblessed
          • 11 Years
          5 months, 18 days ago

          Captain:

          a) J Pedro
          b) Goykeres
          c) Bruno
          d) Salah

          1. Vazza
            • 5 Years
            5 months, 18 days ago

            D

          2. F4L
            • 11 Years
            5 months, 18 days ago

            salah

          3. RICICLE
            • 3 Years
            5 months, 18 days ago

            Salah

            1. estheblessed
              • 11 Years
              5 months, 18 days ago

              Thanks! Conclusive

          4. FPLCEO
            • 16 Years
            5 months, 18 days ago

            Salah

        3. Tonyawesome69
          • 7 Years
          5 months, 18 days ago

          Posted earlier that Palmer wasn't in today's training photos.

          Pedro wasn't pictured in training either, Estevao and Santos are there. All 3 played in Brazil's last game against Bolivia.

          (sort by newest)
          https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/photos/cobham-training-ground

          1. F4L
            • 11 Years
            5 months, 18 days ago

            Guiu time 😎

          2. iFash@FPL
            • 1 Year
            5 months, 18 days ago

            Is Pedro OK?

        4. thetommy14
          • 5 Years
          5 months, 18 days ago

          Thoughts on this GW4 WC?

          Raya
          Cucurella, Muñoz, VDV
          Wirtz, Xavi, Grealish, Semenyo
          Gyokeres, J.Pedro, Haaland

          Dubravka, KDH, Senesi, Rodon
          0,0m ITB

          1. Punned It
              5 months, 18 days ago

              Dunno about Wirtz and Xavi. Looks good otherwise!

            • estheblessed
              • 11 Years
              5 months, 18 days ago

              Can u get Sarr and Gakpo instead

            • Haa-lala-land
              • 5 Years
              5 months, 18 days ago

              With you future transfers in mind, the funds are perhaps spread a bit too evenly across midfield price points, meaning at least two transfers should you want to jump on say Palmer or Saka or Bruno or move Gyokeres up to Isak at any point.
              Won't be a problem though if you stay at 8 and below where there's more than enough good picks to choose from.

            • Sun Jihai
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 14 Years
              5 months, 18 days ago

              I wouldn't go for Wirtz from what I've seen so far

          2. StellaMan
            • 12 Years
            5 months, 18 days ago

            Salah/Thiago
            Or
            Wirtz/Pedro

            1. FPLCEO
              • 16 Years
              5 months, 18 days ago

              Salah a must have for the next 2 in my view.

          3. FPLCEO
            • 16 Years
            5 months, 18 days ago

            A: Elliot and Gykores

            B: Semenyo and Mateta

            Been flip flopping on this on WC all week.

            B feels safer but worried Palace maybe blunt in attack with Eze and Sarr out of the side.

            1. StellaMan
              • 12 Years
              5 months, 18 days ago

              I'd lean B too, agree with Palace view but Villa haven't been great so far

            2. iFash@FPL
              • 1 Year
              5 months, 18 days ago

              B for me.

            3. SligoRovers1928
              • 1 Year
              5 months, 18 days ago

              B

          4. iFash@FPL
            • 1 Year
            5 months, 18 days ago

            Mateta + (Cullen)

            Or

            Richarlison + (Paqueta)

          5. 1569Tippins
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            5 months, 18 days ago

            Reinildo OUT - Munoz IN
            Palmer OUT - Salah IN
            Saka OUT - Gakpo IN
            Gyokeres OUT - Muniz IN

            TC on Salah to offset the -12

            Easy this game!

            1. iFash@FPL
              • 1 Year
              5 months, 18 days ago

              Will you play Muniz?

              1. 1569Tippins
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                5 months, 18 days ago

                This week I would

                1. iFash@FPL
                  • 1 Year
                  5 months, 18 days ago

                  He seems to be starting ahead of Raul.

            2. iFash@FPL
              • 1 Year
              5 months, 18 days ago

              Aggressive, but could indeed pay off.

          6. Winnerr
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            5 months, 18 days ago

            Joao Pedro not in training pics but estevao is. Assume just rest but would shake things up if he’s out

            1. iFash@FPL
              • 1 Year
              5 months, 18 days ago

              Hmmm! Just brought him on WC. 🙂

            2. SligoRovers1928
              • 1 Year
              5 months, 18 days ago

              He won’t be unless he’s injured, they’re not gonna play guiu

          7. Letsgo!
            • 9 Years
            5 months, 18 days ago

            Start damsgaard
            Or sell for semenyo or iwobi?

          8. Cruyff's Eleven
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            5 months, 18 days ago

            Start Diouf or Rodon?

            1. Letsgo!
              • 9 Years
              5 months, 18 days ago

              Diouf of course

          9. SligoRovers1928
            • 1 Year
            5 months, 18 days ago

            Have dorgu, cunha, aina, sels, wood, dubravka and esteve
            Rest of my team looks good this week
            Wondering if I should wildcard/freehit/roll transfers this week
            Thanks

            1. SligoRovers1928
              • 1 Year
              5 months, 18 days ago

              I have wirtz as well

              1. Blueberg
                • 10 Years
                5 months, 18 days ago

                Eh?

                1. SligoRovers1928
                  • 1 Year
                  5 months, 18 days ago

                  Wondering if I should be playing a chip this week with aina and cunha injured, dorgu unlikely to play, triple forest and out of form wirtz and rogers

          10. Letsgo!
            • 9 Years
            5 months, 18 days ago

            Am gonna go with a differential capt this week
            . Watkins!

            1. Royal5
              • 14 Years
              5 months, 18 days ago

              Bit early to give up

              1. Letsgo!
                • 9 Years
                5 months, 18 days ago

                We will see lets come back to this chat after the game

          11. 1justlookin
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            5 months, 17 days ago

            Would your FH or WC this team?

            Sels, Dubravka
            Cucurella, Andersen, Konsa
            Salah, Semenyo, N'diaye, Rogers, Cunha
            J.Pedro, Watkins

            Subs:Dubravka, Milenkovic, Hartman, Guiu

            I have 2 FT's