It didn’t take long for Nuno Espirito Santo to find another Premier League job: just 18 days separated his Nottingham Forest dismissal and West Ham United hiring.
In fact, it was the Hammers’ shock Gameweek 3 win at the City Ground that hastened Nuno’s goodbye. Graham Potter didn’t last much longer either, seeing generally poor form evolve into a strange face-swapping viral trend that dominated social media for a few days.
Anyway, the eager Nuno has already taken charge of his first West Ham match, a 1-1 draw at Everton.
Let’s see what our past knowledge and Monday night observations could mean for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers.
WOEFUL UNDER POTTER
Appointed in early January, Potter picked up only six wins from 25 occasions, victorious in two of 12 at home.
It wasn’t all bad, as they won at Arsenal in February and beat Ipswich Town on the final day to secure 14th place. But, in reality, a lot of the final weeks were spent down in 17th.
In Football365’s league table of Potter’s tenure, West Ham ranked last of all sides that were neither promoted nor relegated.
Furthermore, over the whole of 2024/25, they allowed the second-most attempts (583), shots on target (186), big chances (103) and expected goals conceded (xGC, 60.60) of all 17 survivors.
None of them had fewer shots on target (140) in attack.
NUNO AT FOREST
Meanwhile, Nuno had Forest on the verge of Champions League qualification.
Hired in time for Gameweek 18 of 2023/24, his initial half-season showed much defensive promise. The Tricky Trees had the fourth-best xGC (27.75) over that period.
This became the bedrock to a stunning 2024/25, where Forest accumulated 57 points from the first 30 matches. They ended Gameweek 33 in a dizzying third place, before finally running out of steam and coming seventh.
Nuno’s team was based on a strong defence that liked to absorb pressure in a deep line, then unleash pacey counterattacks. Number two for restricting big chances (72), only champions Liverpool bettered their 13 clean sheets.
Indeed, Forest remain the sole team to stop the Reds from scoring in a league game under Arne Slot.
In this respect, it feels like West Ham are replacing Potter with the complete opposite – not always a great idea.
Yet the above graphic of high and deep defensive lines – taken from our ‘Moving Target’ piece on Ange Postecoglou – suggests that the Hammers could actually be a good fit for Nuno’s direct, pragmatic managerial style.
After all, this West Ham team aren’t good at building from the back and look brightest when in transition.
DEFENSIVE CONTRIBUTION POINTS
There’s seemingly a correlation between a team having low possession numbers and its players racking up defensive contribution (DefCon) actions – clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles.
When FPL announced this new points reward in mid-July, we discovered that Forest duo Nikola Milenkovic (£5.4m) and Murillo (£5.4m) would have been the game’s best two defenders had it been around last season.
During Nuno’s time in Nottingham, average possession was very low, and West Ham’s hasn’t been much higher.
That could be good for Max Kilman (£4.4m). He was last season’s sixth-best defender for DefCon actions (327) and was unlucky not to get more hypothetical points – the centre-back fell one short of the threshold on several occasions.
Above: Forest and West Ham defenders sorted by % of games in which they hit the DefCon threshold in 2024/25
This time, partner Konstantinos Mavropanos (£4.4m) matches Kilman’s two rewards, but from fewer appearances. It’s worth keeping an eye on how the duo develops under new management.
CLUES FROM MONDAY NIGHT
They started together at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, on a night when Nuno spoke about not immediately making big changes.
“Two training sessions, we try to keep it simple. Now is not the moment to make big changes. More important is that the team is compact and organised; this was the main message.
“I think that the players understand that we have to make things different, we have to become a team that is more organised, don’t leave gaps.” – Nuno Espirito Santo, speaking ahead of kick-off
That being said, Nuno used the four-man backline he’s recently preferred. But his spell at Wolverhampton Wanderers used the wing-back system, one which he’d sometimes revert to when Forest were winning a match. So his favourite formation with this crop of players is still to be determined.
As for personnel, Monday’s big exclusion was James Ward-Prowse (£5.8m). The midfielder started each of West Ham’s previous five but failed to impress Nuno when briefly loaned to Forest in 2024/25.
The head coach also preferred goalkeeper Alphonse Areola (£4.3m) to Mads Hermansen (£4.5m).
Pleased to leave with a point, the Hammers won the expected goals (xG) battle by 1.17 to 0.73. But there’ll be unease that they again conceded from a set-piece – Michael Keane‘s (£4.5m) goal is already the eighth time this has happened. And it could have been more, looking at Everton’s other chances.
WEST HAM’S UPCOMING FIXTURES
Match number two once again has West Ham on the road, this time across London against Arsenal. Can they win at the Emirates for a third successive time?
After this, the October international break gives Nuno time to formulate a coherent plan. The four subsequent fixtures look very appealing, versus Brentford, Leeds United, Newcastle United and Burnley.
That’s why the Hammers’ next six rank in the upper half of our Fixture Ticker, though they slide down when extending the sample size to 10.
FPL ASSETS TO CONSIDER
It needs noting that Forest massively overachieved in attack, according to xG Delta figures.
They scored 58 times, but it should have been a mere 46.57, helped by the ruthlessness of Chris Wood (£7.5m). Perhaps he sees similarities in Niclas Fullkrug (£5.7m), who he started up front against Everton.
However, West Ham’s undoubted talisman is Jarrod Bowen (£7.7m). He ended the last two campaigns on 193 and 182 FPL points, before somehow finding a way to score three goals in this poor side’s first six encounters.
On the other wing, Crysencio Summerville (£5.5m) is not only cheaper, but someone Nuno wanted to sign for Forest during the summer.
He combined well with El Hadji Malick Diouf (£4.4m) on Monday, as the attacking left-back made it four assists from six. If clean sheets get added to his repertoire, Diouf could become very appealing. Not that he boasts the DefCon potential of Kilman and Mavropanos.
Speaking of which, Lucas Paqueta (£5.9m) is a penalty-taking midfielder who has twice brought in DefCon points.
Get Gameweek 7 out of the way, and Nuno Espirito Santo’s West Ham could be worth some investment.
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