Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly Q&A, giving his opinion on the best defenders, Nick Pope (£5.2m) and Ismaila Sarr (£6.6m) replacements, Triple Captain opportunities and more.
Q: Which goalkeeper would you pick, bearing in mind that Nick Pope’s situation is unclear? Could Aaron Ramsdale (£4.8m) be a good option, given that most managers already have defenders from Arsenal and Crystal Palace?
(via Atimis)
A: First off, if you have Martin Dubravka (£4.0m) and a limited number of transfers, I would try to delay a ‘keeper move until Gameweek 16, when we get the free transfer top-up, due to the limited upside. I would steer clear of Ramsdale; that could be another potential transfer you have to make further down the line.
However, if going down to Bart Verbruggen (£4.4m) gets you the funds you need for say, Sarr up to Bruno Fernandes (£8.9m) or Phil Foden (£8.1m), then I can get behind it.
Looking at the different price brackets, if you own Dubravka and are looking to go cheap, the rotation between Verbruggen and the Burnley shot-stopper is excellent. You’re pretty much guaranteed a home fixture every week, and the run of opponents is really quite good till Gameweek 20, as shown below.
Additionally, if you already own Robert Sanchez (£4.8m) like me and have a spare transfer lying around, the move from Dubravka to Verbruggen also appeals, particularly next week, as shown below. You get to avoid Bournemouth (a), Newcastle United (a) and Manchester City (a).
Sanchez is a good option in the mid-price bracket. Chelsea’s fixtures do toughen up a bit, but there’s
still some decent home games in there, and the Blues have shown signs of defensive improvement.
As the image below shows, Chelsea are ranked fourth for non-penalty expected goals conceded (NPxGC) over the last six Gameweeks and have allowed just eight big chances. A caveat here, of course, is that Moises Caicedo (£5.9m) is unavailable for their next three league games, which does dent their defensive ability.
And of course, the obvious one is David Raya (£5.9m). With Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.3m) out of the picture, and Jurrien Timber (£6.4m) and Bukayo Saka (£10.1m) the two obvious Arsenal picks, there’s no clear third option at the moment, especially if you don’t fancy going for Declan Rice (£7.0m). It’s a lot of money, though, and with some more expensive midfielders like Fernandes, Foden, Saka and potentially Cole Palmer (£10.3m) on the radar soon, I don’t like the idea of locking up that much money.
Q: Who is the best Sarr replacement around the same price, and if you have the money to go up a price bracket?
(via FPL Virgin)
A: I think if you’re looking to go cheaper than Sarr, there are three options. In order of preference: Yankuba Minteh (£6.2m), Elliot Anderson (£5.4m) and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (£4.9m). The first two are decent play every week options, but Dewsbury-Hall would be someone I prefer having as a first sub option rather than a regular starter.
Minteh’s run of fixtures is incredible. Brighton and Hove Albion play West Ham United (twice), Sunderland and Burnley in four of their next seven games.
Anderson is just delivering points consistently with a four-point floor and good underlying creativity numbers as well. Additionally, the price is attractive, as it enables upgrades elsewhere.
If you’re looking to go up, I think Enzo Fernandez (£6.7m) is an avoid with Palmer back now. Cody Gakpo (£7.5m) could miss one of the next two games, having played 90 minutes back-to-back. The underlying stats are great, but I think it’s one I would go to after Mohamed Salah (£14.1m) departs for the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON).
Foden’s underlying numbers have shown improvement, even before his brace against Leeds United. He’s currently ranked sixth for non-penalty expected goal involvement (NPxGI) among all players over the last six Gameweeks, and Pep Guardiola has mentioned in the past that when Foden is on a good run, he needs to be played regularly to flourish.
Fernandes is also an obvious one, with many routes to points and a good run of fixtures for
Manchester United. The Newcastle United midfielders are an avoid with the threat of rotation.
Personally, I would just go for Minteh. The underlying numbers, team form, fixtures and price are all just too good to ignore.
Q: Is it better to hold Marcos Senesi (£5.0m) or replace him? Who are the best replacements for those without spare funds?
(via Bod)
A: Senesi has been a defensive contributions (DefCon) monster and looks to be starting every game with four points, but Bournemouth’s defensive numbers are worrying. As you see in the image posted earlier, they are in the bottom six for NPxGC over the last six Gameweeks and have a poor run of fixtures.
This obviously depends on your bench, but I think the likes of Joe Rodon (£4.1m) or Joachim Andersen (£4.5m) are okay to cover this week and should get 3-4 points at the minimum. It also depends on what price you got Senesi at; if it was around £4.5m, then I think as a bench option, he could still be useful. However, if you paid £5.0m like me and intend to play him every week, I think he needs to go.
As the above image shows, Nico O’Reilly (£5.2m) is the standout replacement at a similar price. He is top for shots in the box (10), big chances (three) and big chances created (four) among defenders over the last six Gameweeks. Yes, he may miss a game in this busy period, but the upside is huge when he does play, despite Manchester City’s porous defence.
However, if you can afford to spend a bit extra, then Timber is still significantly ahead. Arsenal’s
defence is a level above everyone else, and I think the rotation risk for him is reduced now, with injuries elsewhere in Arsenal’s backline. Mikel Arteta will not want to change it around too much.
Daniel Munoz (£6.0m) has the looming threat of suspension with four yellow cards, and Oliver Glasner has spoken about how fatigued Crystal Palace’s squad is. He’s still a pick you’d be happy to hold for a while, though, so I wouldn’t put anyone off him. There has been a drop in his attacking output, though. If you take out the game against Wolves, he hasn’t managed over 0.1 expected goal involvement (xGI) in three of his last four matches.
Jack Paul van Hecke (£4.4m) appeals, particularly if you have Nordi Mukiele (£4.2m). The latter covers his tougher fixtures in Gameweeks 16 and 18. Malick Thiaw (£4.9m) is another option. Newcastle United have two decent home games next, and he is good for DefCon/goal threat too, apparently as Nick Woltemade (£7.4m) has been training him on headers.
Reece James (£5.6m) is an easy avoid with Chelsea’s schedule. Andersen is a decent option if you can rotate him in and out of your squad and need to free up money.
Q: What are the best triple captain opportunities in the remaining weeks for those without Erling Haaland (£14.9m) and no plans to get him?
(via Deulofail))
A: It’s difficult to go with a Liverpool player despite their attractive fixtures. So I think you have to target someone playing Burnley or West Ham. Antoine Semenyo (£7.8m) in Gameweek 17 appeals. I’d have said a Newcastle attacker in Gameweek 15 too, but I have some concern for rotation/minutes management there as they play in the Champions League after, where their position isn’t spectacular. Maybe Foden in Gameweek 17? Maybe a Manchester United attacker this week, although I don’t like that as much.
Q: Buy Fernandes or Saka? I already own Mbeumo and Rice.
(via @Glasscola)
A: There are two ways to look at Fernandes, keeping in mind Mbeumo and Amad Diallo‘s (£6.3m) departure to AFCON. It’s likely to make Manchester United worse, but I think Fernandes’ goal share goes up. Either way, I don’t think it necessarily makes him a better pick, but he continues to have reliable minutes, routes to points and great fixtures. He’s also over £1.0m cheaper than Saka, so of the two, I’d go for him.
However, seeing that you already have Mbeumo, you could make a case that you would get Bruno in
when the Cameroon international departs for AFCON. Personally, though, I would rather double-up
on the Manchester United attack for West Ham, Wolves and Bournemouth.
Arsenal’s fixtures don’t scream loads of goals over the next three; Wolves appeals in Gameweek 16, of course, but I am expecting some rotation and potentially managed minutes for that one.
Q: If you were on Free Hit 14, would you rather have Gakpo or Foden in your team? Would you stick with Haaland at Fulham? Would you favour Newcastle United or Arsenal midfielders for a double-up? Which one Chelsea player would you also recommend?
(via AC/DC AFC)
A: First of all, I think Gameweek 14 is a dangerous week to Free Hit as the template players of Saka,
Semenyo, United midfielders, Crystal Palace and Liverpool all have good fixtures this week. I would be wary of taking them out.
If you have decided, though, I wouldn’t include Gakpo as I think the rest could be coming. It’ll likely
be this one or Leeds United away. I would include Haaland. With Arsenal, you might get managed minutes or rotation given the tight turnaround, so I would double up on their defence, with Riccardo Calafiori (£5.8m) and Timber. Munoz and Virgil van Dijk (£6.0m) would make it as well.
