Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly Q&A, giving his opinion on the best remaining chip windows, the defences of Crystal Palace, Manchester City and Newcastle United + more.
You can see his Gameweek 15 team reveal here.
Q: Do you still trust the Manchester City defence? They have been awful in the last two games, conceding four goals. I currently have Nico O’Reilly but I’m not sure if he is worth holding on to, plus he might get rotated during the weekend.
(via FPL Sanky)
A: Manchester City have adopted a different style this season, where they have less control of games and encourage teams to attack them so they can get more space for Erling Haaland (£15.0m) on the break.
As a natural effect of this, they are conceding more goals. As the below image shows, City are ranked fifth for xGC (6.84) over the last six Gameweeks but they have conceded a whopping 14 big chances; that’s over two a game. Only Spurs, Villa, Brighton (15 each), West Ham (16) and Burnley (20) have fared worse.
I think Nico O’Reilly (£5.2m) is still worth buying/holding into, as his stats are incredible. Among defenders, only Quilindschy Hartman (£4.0m, eight) and Maxim De Cuyper (£4.3m, nine) have created more chances than the left-back (seven) over the last six Gameweeks. No defender has created more big chances (three).
He is also top for shots in the box (eight) and big chances (three) amongst players in his position. His minutes should also improve with Rayan Ait-Nouri (£5.7m) departing for the African Cup of Nations soon.
Q: Should we really sell Antoine Semenyo? He’s nailed as they come, while the fixtures against Manchester United and Burnley in Gameweeks 16 and 17 hold promise for attacking returns.
Q. Priority sell: Enzo Fernandez or Antoine Semenyo?
(via Pompel + Drizzle)
A: I don’t think Antoine Semenyo (£7.7m) is a ‘priority’ sell at all. Nailed minutes monsters are rare to come by in the December period and Bournemouth also have no European football distractions, which means there is less rotation and fatigue.
His underlying figures have admittedly dropped recently but the Cherries’ overall numbers are still promising. The south coast side are ranked seventh for xG (9.16) over the last six Gameweeks.
I understand that most FPL managers are selling him for Phil Foden (£8.3m) and I can get behind that, given Manchester City’s kind schedule and Foden’s recent brilliant form. However, I would not be taking a hit to get rid of Semenyo and would also look at alternative routes to bringing in Foden.
Enzo Fernandez (£6.7m) is someone I would look to get rid of. Cole Palmer (£10.3m) is now back in the equation, so the Argentinian loses penalties. With Reece James (£5.6m) getting regular minutes now, he also loses a lot of set-pieces, so routes to points are more limited. He also has to do a lot more defensive work in midfield with Moises Caicedo (£5.9m) suspended for the next two matches.
Q: Is it too late to get a Crystal Palace defender?
(via @SRTFPL)
A: Palace have racked up seven clean sheets in 14 matches this season, which is very impressive given their limited squad size and fixture congestion.
Moreso, all their defenders offer appeal besides clean sheets – DefCon, attacking potential, bonus points etc. Bar Daniel Munoz (£6.1m), their prices are also all affordable and well below £5.5m.
The Eagles rank second for xGC (5.78) over the last six Gameweeks. That is even more impressive considering they have played Manchester United, Brighton, Brentford and Arsenal over that spell, all sides that rank in the top half for xG.
I don’t think it’s too late to buy a Palace defender. They offer such good value and points potential that I would be looking to bring in one of Maxence Lacroix (£5.1m), Marc Guehi (£5.1m), Munoz or Chris Richards (£4.6m), budget dependent, soon. Perhaps you can wait till Gameweek 17, when we have the luxury of more transfers and their game against Manchester City in Gameweek 16 is out of the way.
Q: Jean Philippe-Mateta Mateta to Igor Thiago this week? It saves a transfer down the line.
(via @Karan_G14)
A: With three transfers and not many fires elsewhere, this is a transfer I’ve made for my team. While Palace’s defence has been trending upwards, their attacking numbers have dipped significantly. The Eagles are ranked 17th for xG (5.60) over the last six matches, with only Burnley (5.25), Sunderland (4.83) and Spurs (4.44) faring worse.
Only West Ham (seven) have created fewer big chances than their eight, which is in sharp contrast from earlier in the season when the Eagles were topping these tables.
The fixture congestion has also seen Jean-Philippe Mateta’s (£8.1m) minutes managed, with Eddie Nketiah (£5.4m) often subbing on for him around the 60th minute. The loss of his strike partner Ismaila Sarr (£6.5m) to injury/AFCON is also likely to have a detrimental effect.
So, while the move could backfire this week with Mateta facing a Fulham side that just conceded five goals, I think Igor Thiago (£6.8m) is the long-term better pick. It’s a move you would want to make in Gameweek 16 anyway.
Q: Who is the best Newcastle defender to buy?
(via Albrightondknight)
A: I would like to recommend one of the full-backs Lewis Hall (£5.2m) or Tino Livramento (£4.9m) but given the fixture congestion and the injury layoffs for each of them, I am a little bit uncertain about their minutes in a busy December period.
Malick Thiaw (£5.0m) is the one. He’s clearly established himself as their first-choice centre-back and I can’t see him being dropped from Eddie Howe’s starting lineup, with Dan Burn (£5.1m)/Sven Botman (£4.9m)/Fabian Schar (£5.3m) likely to play alongside him, not instead of.
However, I have little faith in Aaron Ramsdale’s (£4.8m) shot-stopping abilities, so I would look to swerve their defence entirely.
Q: What’s happened to everyone’s defence? All the teams for good underlying data, bar Arsenal, look very leaky all of a sudden. Is xGC just a very fraudulent stat for FPL?
(via Tommy Template)
A: Personally, I am finding the recent goal glut a welcome departure from the dull, controlled and often direct football we saw earlier in the season.
Why is this happening? I would guess fatigue but I’m not really sure.
The defensive numbers are still good for most teams, however. The top five clubs for xGC are all still averaging close to 1.0 xGC per game. Unfortunately, bar Arsenal and Palace, they’re still conceding the odd goal, perhaps due to the opponent’s attacking quality.
I still think xGC is the best stat we have to quantify defensive strength. I do like to dive deeper and also look at big chances conceded and open-play goal attempts conceded.
You can access all of this in my Custom Stats Table in the Members Area.
Q: Which do you think is the better week to Free Hit: Gameweek 16 or 18?
Q. For those still with Free Hit and Triple Captain chips, when is the best Gameweek to play them?
(via Bod + @Brannoc51953439)
A: I think the Triple Captain week is Gameweek 17 when Haaland is home to West Ham.
For the Free Hit, it is largely team-dependent. If you have just one transfer this week, then I like Gameweek 15. The Newcastle United, Manchester City and Manchester United fixtures appeal, while you could choose to go without Arsenal who are away to a resurgent Aston Villa side.
If you’re loaded up on Man City and Crystal Palace, then Gameweek 16 also appeals. Here, you can leave out players from those two sides and load up on Arsenal and Brentford, with a sprinkling of Liverpool and Manchester United.
The problem is, though, that neither Manchester United or Liverpool’s attack inspires any confidence at present!
Q: Is selling Bryan Mbeumo, ahead of Wolverhampton Wanderers away, to get Phil Foden crazy?
(via @_Boom_Bap)
A: I think that’s a move you can make. Bryan Mbeumo (£8.6m) is a transfer out after Gameweek 16, while Foden should start against Sunderland. Wolves have been a bit better defensively under Rob Edwards, as well, but scoring goals continues to be a problem.
