Spot the Differential
2 January 2026 653 comments
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Our Gameweek 20 differentials column brings a trio of low-owned Fantasy Premier League (FPL) assets for your consideration.


MARTIN ODEGAARD

  • FPL ownership: 2.1%
  • Price: £7.8m
  • GW20-24 fixtures: bou | LIV | nfo | MUN | lee

After scoring and providing an assist over the last two Gameweeks, Arsenal’s Martin Odegaard (£7.8m) looks like a great option for the Gunners’ trip to the Vitality Stadium.

The playmaker should certainly be full of confidence coming up against strugglers Bournemouth, having won possession to brilliantly set up Martin Zubimendi (£5.2m) against Aston Villa on Tuesday.

“He needed some consistency and some games. Obviously, he had two times the shoulder injury, then he had a big knee injury, and that takes a little bit of time.

“Now you can see that it’s flowing, that his energy level is back to where it is. He’s taking risks, he’s affecting the game in a great way and I think he was really, really good today again.” – Mikel Arteta on Martin Odegaard in Gameweek 19

Odegaard impressively ranks first among all players for chances created over the last six Gameweeks, with 20.

He is also joint-ninth in his position for goal attempts during the same timeframe (13).

Those underlying stats suggest Odegaard can continue his recent production against Bournemouth, as he comes up against a side that has failed to win since Gameweek 9, conceding 11 goals in their last four matches.

Andoni Iraola’s defence has admittedly performed better at home, but given Arsenal’s attacking output, Odegaard looks like an interesting differential prospect, particularly with Bournemouth conceding so many key passes from the left half-space.

Above: Bournemouth’s chances created conceded heatmap in 2025/26


FERDI KADIOGLU

  • FPL ownership: 0.3%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW20-24 fixtures: BUR | mci | BOU | ful | EVE

For those Fantasy managers who aren’t afraid to roll the dice, Ferdi Kadioglu (£4.4m) could be a player to back this week as Brighton and Hove Albion entertain Burnley.

The £4.4m full-back provided his first assist of the 2025/26 campaign against West Ham United on Tuesday.

Furthermore, Kadioglu ranks joint-third among all FPL defenders for chances created and joint-10th for shots over the past four Gameweeks.

Set-pieces could prove crucial on Saturday, as Burnley, who have allowed nine goals in their last five matches, have conceded 76 goal attempts from dead-ball situations this season – only Aston Villa are worse off in that respect.

So as Brighton’s main corner-taker, Kadioglu could be set to profit from that weakness.

And with Brighton’s upcoming schedule pretty decent (they sit fifth on our Season Ticker for fixture difficulty in Gameweeks 20-28), and considering Kadioglu has the potential to deliver points at both ends of the pitch, he could be a nice differential pickup with just 0.3% ownership.

Defensively, Fabian Hurzeler’s troops have kept four clean sheets in their last 10 matches, offering further optimism ahead of Gameweek 20.


MATEUS FERNANDES

  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW20-24 fixtures: wol | NFO | tot | SUN | che

West Ham have endured a difficult season thus far, picking up just 14 points from 19 matches.

However, the 2-2 draw against Brighton on Tuesday may provide the perfect springboard as they prepare for a favourable upcoming schedule.

In their next six matches, Nuno Espirito Santo’s side face Wolverhampton Wanderers, Nottingham Forest and Burnley, all of whom are currently ranked 17th or below in the table.

“What I want is to perform, compete and make this point [against Brighton] really valuable. If we achieve a good win there [at Molineux], a good performance, this is what we’re going to prepare.” – Nuno Espirito Santo

Budget midfielder Mateus Fernandes, who costs just £5.5m, has been a key creator for West Ham this season.

He’s created 14 chances since the start of November, the most of any Hammers player.

Furthermore, Fernandes has produced defensive contribution (DefCon) points in five of his last eight starts.

West Ham visit Wolves on Saturday.

Rob Edwards’ side have failed to keep a clean sheet so far this season and have looked particularly vulnerable at Molineux, conceding nine goals across their new manager’s four home games in charge.

Fernandes could act as a decent enabler, then, given West Ham’s favourable upcoming schedule.


Introducing The Eye Test 2

Introducing The Eye Test 2
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  1. Moneymar
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Which one would you do?

    A) Rice to Ødegaard
    B) Esteve to Lewis Potter

    1. teddy.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      B?

    2. Count Olaf
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 24 days ago

      I want to keep Rice even if he doesn't play tomorrow, so not A. B is a short term move, Lewis Potter might not start when Ouattara returns from AFCON.

      1. Moneymar
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        You got a point. I’d like to keep Rice as well. My thought’s on a short term, bc I would want to activate my WC soon.

    3. Yozzer
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      I'd go Collins

  2. Count Olaf
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Team in shambles. Rodon injured, Rice and O'Reilly might not start, Semenyo terrible fixture, Lacroix and Thiago poor form. 2 Free transfers.
    Semenyo is the easy sell, but not fully convinced on Rogers/Bruno G.
    Rodon to Alderete is an uninspiring way to spend a transfer for the 5th defender, but makes sense.
    Semenyo to Stach and upgrade Rodon is another option, but not sure who I'd buy (have Gabriel and Tarkowski).

    1. Yozzer
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Semenyo Vs Spurs home is intriguing and City play wolves not long after. Imagine if he actually starts that one for city

      1. Count Olaf
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Thanks!
        I have 3x City so if I keep him that long it means I won't be allowed to make any transfer in the meantime.
        Spurs are terrible but they don't concede much lately.

        1. Yozzer
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 24 days ago

          O'Reilly out to Hall ?

          1. Count Olaf
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 24 days ago

            Yeah, O'Reilly is a sell sooner or later, not sure about Hall. Too many games for Newcastle in a short period of time and he is injury prone.
            Thanks!

    2. Sun God Nika
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      I’m in similar boat
      Got esteve Rodon Bruno and rice ..

      But not many options seem appealing

      1. Count Olaf
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 24 days ago

        The uncertainty around Rice is the worst part. If I knew he'd play I could consider rolling, but I don't want to find mysefl playing with 10 players...

        1. Sun God Nika
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 24 days ago

          Ah I thought he was guaranteed not playing that makes choices even harder
          I think I was always going to keep him on the bench though

        2. Manani
          • 14 Years
          1 month, 24 days ago

          he most certainly won't play this week.

          but will be back soon I think

          1. Count Olaf
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 24 days ago

            There is a post on the last page that says he traveled with the squad and they will decide tomorrow.

  3. joeynse99
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Stuck on who to bench this week, current squad is;

    Donnaruma,
    Timber, Mitchell, Cash
    Saka, Paqueta, Cunha, Foden, Szoboszlai
    Haaland (c), Calvert-Lewin

    Subs: Dubravka, Thiago, Mukiele, Andersen

    1. Count Olaf
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Maybe play Mukiele and bench Mitchell ?

      1. joeynse99
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Thanks mate yeah gutted I benched Mukiele last game 11 point haul v city

    2. teddy.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      I'm playing Andersen for DCs and attacking potential. I'd bench Cunha.

      1. joeynse99
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Interesting pick man

        1. teddy.
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          1 month, 24 days ago

          This season is all about defenders. Pick defenders with quadruple threat - DCs, CS, BPs and attacking potential, play them every week and watch the points roll in. They're matching the top midfielders, outscoring strikers, cheaper than both and much more consistent.

        2. teddy.
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          1 month, 24 days ago

          Andersen has only blanked (2pts or less) in 5 out of 18 starts.

          1. Count Olaf
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 24 days ago

            This is a great point overall and I agree that's how you should play this season, but Andersen isn't the greatest example. He averages 3.9 points per game, there are 35 defenders that top this figure. And attacking threat is not there, he has 0 goals and 0 assists in 48 PL games for Fulham.

          2. Yank Revolution
            • 14 Years
            1 month, 24 days ago

            That's a weird way to measure output, teddy...Olaf's point below stands. Points per match, fixtures and form play a bigger role.

  4. abaalan
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Does odegaard take some set pieces off Rice when both fit?

    1. BR510
        1 month, 24 days ago

        He might take some corners tomorrow but not over Rice/Saka

    2. Eastman
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      You know Semenyo could do his chances of winning a title medal no harm with a performance against Arsenal. He could be up for it

      1. BR510
          1 month, 24 days ago

          Thinking just this. Incentive to perform well

        • Yozzer
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 24 days ago

          Yeah or he could pychologically not perform at his best in fear of injury

      2. BR510
          1 month, 24 days ago

          Already locked in Andersen and Timber to Tark and Gab.

          To fund this:
          1. Thiago to DCL
          2. Thiago to Obi and bank the 1.7 million for Foden/Cunha to Palmer/Bruno later on

          1. ball c
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 24 days ago

            I would keep timber if you can and find another way to get gab

            1. BR510
                1 month, 24 days ago

                See below!! Thanks though. Thinking about this all week but I think Rice will be lethal with Gab back

              • teddy.
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 16 Years
                1 month, 24 days ago

                Yeah, and I might also keep Andersen, although Tarkowski is worth getting.

                1. BR510
                    1 month, 24 days ago

                    My question earlier was

                    1. Timber, Rogers, Gab
                    2. Tark, Rice, Gab

                    1. teddy.
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 16 Years
                      1 month, 24 days ago

                      2 by a mile for me

              • Yozzer
                • 8 Years
                1 month, 24 days ago

                If you have vvd as most do id sell him over Timber

            2. Manani
              • 14 Years
              1 month, 24 days ago

              which 3 ARS for long term?

              currently got Timber, Rice, Saka,
              4 FT, thinking using it to reshuffle a bit

              1. BR510
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  Thinking about this all GW... Finally decided Gab, Rice, Saka. Getting Tark so route to double Ars defence and Saka/Rice downgrade later.

                • CoracAld2831
                  • 5 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  I think i'll go Timber, Gabriel & Saka myself.

                • Yozzer
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  I have no Saka . Timber, Rice and Gab.
                  Everytime they score I know Saka is probably involved but he's not worth the cash. It depends what you can do with the rest of it

              2. Letsgo!
                • 9 Years
                1 month, 24 days ago

                Wirtz to odegaard for -4 or to rogers for -4?

                1. JohnnyB10
                  • 1 Year
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  Rogers but why for a hit? Not worth it imo.

                  1. Letsgo!
                    • 9 Years
                    1 month, 24 days ago

                    But will wirtz start??

                2. Tree House
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 15 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  How’s your bench, avoid the hit if you can

              3. JohnnyB10
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 24 days ago

                Should I get rid of Reece James and Senesi for Gabriel/any 3.8 defender? I got Tark, VVD and Gudmondsson. Or just roll? 2ft.

              4. CoracAld2831
                • 5 Years
                1 month, 24 days ago

                Currently rising and dropping in price according to Livefpl (ownership more than 0,5%):

                Rising:

                Cherki - Gabriel - Mukiele - Bowen - Trossard - Alderete - Pickford - Garner - Schade

                Dropping:

                Rice - Thiago - Foden - Neto - Isidor - Rodon - Burn - Grealish - Senesi - Ballard - Eze

                1. teddy.
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 16 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  Selling Foden is very short-sighted. He's still looking super sharp.

                  1. FPL Blow-In
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 13 Years
                    1 month, 24 days ago

                    Won’t impact my SV luckily

                2. Count Olaf
                  • 1 Year
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  I have Rice, Thiago, Foden and Rodon. The only one I'm considering selling today is Rodon.

              5. Shmack92
                • 11 Years
                1 month, 24 days ago

                Who to bench fellow experts?

                Need to bench two:

                A) Gordon (CRY)
                B) Bowen (WOL)
                C) Lewis Potter (EVE)

                1. JohnnyB10
                  • 1 Year
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  C

                  1. Shmack92
                    • 11 Years
                    1 month, 24 days ago

                    Thanks! Need to bench another - struggling to decide! Wolves showing some signs of life last couple of weeks..

                    1. JohnnyB10
                      • 1 Year
                      1 month, 24 days ago

                      I agree but have faith in Bowen 🙂 Plus Everton defence… C good for bench

                    2. Yozzer
                      • 8 Years
                      1 month, 24 days ago

                      No point having Bowen if you not playing him home to Wolves

                2. CoracAld2831
                  • 5 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  C

                3. BR510
                    1 month, 24 days ago

                    BC

                  • Tree House
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 15 Years
                    1 month, 24 days ago

                    C not even close.

                  • Atimis
                    • 9 Years
                    1 month, 24 days ago

                    Can’t you play BB?

                  • teddy.
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 16 Years
                    1 month, 24 days ago

                    A & C

                4. BR510
                    1 month, 24 days ago

                    1. Timber, Rogers, Gab
                    2. Tark, Rice, Gab

                    1. JohnnyB10
                      • 1 Year
                      1 month, 24 days ago

                      2

                    2. Tree House
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 15 Years
                      1 month, 24 days ago

                      1 all day long

                    3. Atimis
                      • 9 Years
                      1 month, 24 days ago

                      1

                    4. CoracAld2831
                      • 5 Years
                      1 month, 24 days ago

                      1

                      1. BR510
                          1 month, 24 days ago

                          Cheers guys. 2 does allows 1.2 million itb but think I am going 1

                          1. JohnnyB10
                            • 1 Year
                            1 month, 24 days ago

                            Tark is just fine, why double up on ARS defence? Plus you get Rice!

                      2. Yozzer
                        • 8 Years
                        1 month, 24 days ago

                        2

                      3. TBL
                        • 4 Years
                        1 month, 24 days ago

                        2

                      4. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
                        • 9 Years
                        1 month, 24 days ago

                        2 for me

                      5. Mr. Sitter
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 9 Years
                        1 month, 24 days ago

                        1.

                    5. TBL
                      • 4 Years
                      1 month, 24 days ago

                      Would you do on WC (mainly to fund Gabriel)

                      Foden + Saka > Palmer + Rice

                      1. Tree House
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 15 Years
                        1 month, 24 days ago

                        Yes

                      2. teddy.
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 16 Years
                        1 month, 24 days ago

                        I think Foden + Rice banks the most points

                        1. TBL
                          • 4 Years
                          1 month, 24 days ago

                          thanks that's a not a bad shout actually

                    6. Tree House
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 15 Years
                      1 month, 24 days ago

                      Have two FTs

                      A) OReilly —> Tarko (BRE)
                      B) Semenyo —> Rogers (NFO)
                      C) Both
                      D) Roll

                      Thanks!

                      1. Atimis
                        • 9 Years
                        1 month, 24 days ago

                        C

                      2. TBL
                        • 4 Years
                        1 month, 24 days ago

                        c

                    7. Atimis
                      • 9 Years
                      1 month, 24 days ago

                      Far from ideal but avoid -4? Benching VVD as counting on HWilson and Dorgu attacking returns. Thoughts?

                      Verb
                      Gab/Timber/Dorgu
                      Saka/Foden/Cunha/HWilson
                      Haaland(c)/Ekitike/Thiago

                      Dub/VVD/Potts/Heaven

                      1. BR510
                          1 month, 24 days ago

                          gtg

                          1. Atimis
                            • 9 Years
                            1 month, 24 days ago

                            Thanks

                        • Tree House
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 15 Years
                          1 month, 24 days ago

                          Looks good

                      2. TochanMama
                        • 13 Years
                        1 month, 24 days ago

                        Who's going to end up scoring more over the next 3GWs?

                        Andersen OUT for
                        A) Thiaw (CRY home / LEE home / WOL away)
                        B) Tarkovski ( BRE home / WOL home / AVL away)

                        1. Yozzer
                          • 8 Years
                          1 month, 24 days ago

                          Tark. Although you could wait and if Keane is back. Get him next week

                        2. BR510
                            1 month, 24 days ago

                            B

                          • TBL
                            • 4 Years
                            1 month, 24 days ago

                            b

                        3. NABIL - FPL otai
                          • 13 Years
                          1 month, 24 days ago

                          Play
                          A. O'Reilly (CHE)
                          B. Mukiele (tot)

                          Thanks

                        4. Should have stuck with Golf…
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 15 Years
                          1 month, 24 days ago

                          Am I crazy to consider pulling the WC now and doing the big change, or should I just hold a week or two, build up some FT then make my moves?

                          Raya
                          Dorgu, O’Reilly, Guehi
                          Foden, Cunha, Wilson, Wirtz
                          Harland, Ekitike, Bowen

                          Vicario, Senesi, Rice, Mukiele

                          Plan currently is WC
                          Raya to Roefs
                          Vicario to Dubravka
                          O’ Reilly to Gabriel
                          Sensei to Timber
                          Rice to Bruno G
                          Wirtz to Semenyo
                          Wilson to M Fernandas then to B Fernandes once fit
                          Bowen to Barnes to allow for Fernandes

                          1. FPL Blow-In
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 13 Years
                            1 month, 24 days ago

                            Transfers were looking good until I got to the Rice move and then they turned to custard

                            1. Should have stuck with Golf…
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 15 Years
                              1 month, 24 days ago

                              Yeh,they kinda just got the better of me.
                              Thanks..

                          2. ZeBestee
                            • 11 Years
                            1 month, 24 days ago

                            I am in a similar situation. I am really thinking of WC'ing.

                            1. Should have stuck with Golf…
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 15 Years
                              1 month, 24 days ago

                              Yeah, it sucks, I had wanted to keep it in the pocket just in case but the damn emergency with the team appears to be now.

                          3. FC Hakkebøf
                            • 9 Years
                            1 month, 24 days ago

                            Why buy Semenyo now? I wouldnt wildcard btw.

                            1. Should have stuck with Golf…
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 15 Years
                              1 month, 24 days ago

                              Thought was that he would be handy to have, not before I head to the city and his price jumps. Not a great reason but still better than nothingñ

                        5. JabbaWookiee
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 11 Years
                          1 month, 24 days ago

                          Which is the better Tarkowski enabler move?

                          A) Semenyo to Cherki
                          B) Thiago to Calvert-Lewin

                          1. JohnnyB10
                            • 1 Year
                            1 month, 24 days ago

                            B

                            1. JabbaWookiee
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 11 Years
                              1 month, 24 days ago

                              Thanks. And who to ditch for Tarkowski?

                              A) Lacroix
                              B) O’Reilly

                              1. JohnnyB10
                                • 1 Year
                                1 month, 24 days ago

                                It has to be A!

                              2. JohnnyB10
                                • 1 Year
                                1 month, 24 days ago

                                O’Reilly still should be nailed.

                                1. JabbaWookiee
                                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                  • 11 Years
                                  1 month, 24 days ago

                                  Don’t like the 57th min sub on Thursday…

                          2. FC Hakkebøf
                            • 9 Years
                            1 month, 24 days ago

                            A

                        6. dillydally1982
                          • 16 Years
                          1 month, 24 days ago

                          Should I sell Hincapie or VVD for Gabriel?

                          1. Tree House
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 15 Years
                            1 month, 24 days ago

                            Hinc

                        7. abaalan
                          • 9 Years
                          1 month, 24 days ago

                          Quick 1:
                          A. Keane > Kadioglu
                          B. Hendersen > Verburggen

                          To free up funds to get Gabriel

                        8. Pickle juice
                          • 9 Years
                          1 month, 24 days ago

                          Is cherki, foden and halaand too much on city attack and safer to to take one of cheki/foden out

                        9. TochanMama
                          • 13 Years
                          1 month, 24 days ago

                          Who'd you get rid of for Tarkovski?

                          A) Andersen
                          B) Guehi

                          Timber - Andersen - Guehi - Alderete - Gudmundson

                        10. Pep Roulette
                          • 8 Years
                          1 month, 24 days ago

                          Odegaard on WC as a placeholder for Rice? Looks a good bet against Bournemouth?

                          1. FPL Blow-In
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 13 Years
                            1 month, 24 days ago

                            If like me you’ve prematurely ejactivated, you’re not going to want to plan transfer like that. Being able to save up to 5ft’s is our only saving grace. No placeholders for me.

                        11. BR510
                            1 month, 24 days ago

                            1. Thiago to DCL
                            2. Thiago to Obi +1.7 million for a rainy day

                            To fund Gabriel

                            1. FC Hakkebøf
                              • 9 Years
                              1 month, 24 days ago

                              Depends on your team and how you will use the Extra 1.7

                          • Gandalf
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 15 Years
                            1 month, 24 days ago

                            A. Ramsdale > Pickford -4
                            B. Ramsdale > Martinez
                            C. Play Dubruvka (bha) and re-assess next GW

                            1. FC Hakkebøf
                              • 9 Years
                              1 month, 24 days ago

                              I am doing C. Will likely get Sanchez in next week.

                          • Atwood
                            • 15 Years
                            1 month, 24 days ago

                            Rogers or Gordon?

                            1. Tree House
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 15 Years
                              1 month, 24 days ago

                              Rogers

                            2. FC Hakkebøf
                              • 9 Years
                              1 month, 24 days ago

                              Both

                          • TBL
                            • 4 Years
                            1 month, 24 days ago

                            is playing a WC just to avoid -8 ridiculous

                            1. Royal5
                              • 14 Years
                              1 month, 24 days ago

                              Why all the hits?

                            2. FPL Blow-In
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 13 Years
                              1 month, 24 days ago

                              Yes, WC worth more than -8 for me. -12 you need to consider it

                          • Manani
                            • 14 Years
                            1 month, 24 days ago

                            A. Thiago + Wilson > Guiu + Rogers
                            B. Thiago + Wilson > Bowen + Stach
                            C. neither

                            1. FC Hakkebøf
                              • 9 Years
                              1 month, 24 days ago

                              C

                          • Clintymints
                            • 16 Years
                            1 month, 24 days ago

                            Bowen > Ekitike worth a -4?

                            Otherwise can possibly add him next week

                            1. FPL Blow-In
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 13 Years
                              1 month, 24 days ago

                              Bowen is the better pick this week

                            2. FC Hakkebøf
                              • 9 Years
                              1 month, 24 days ago

                              It is still no.