Spot the Differential
15 January 2026 183 comments
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Our Gameweek 22 differentials column brings a trio of low-owned Fantasy Premier League (FPL) assets for your consideration.


KAORU MITOMA

  • FPL ownership: 1.9%
  • Price: £6.1m
  • GW22-26 fixtures: BOU | ful | EVE | CRY | avl

Facing a Bournemouth side that have desperately struggled away from home in 2025/26, we’re backing Brighton and Hove Albion’s Kaoru Mitoma (£6.1m) to deliver.

The Cherries have conceded 29 goals on the road this season, the most of any team.

They also rank bottom for StatsBomb expected goals conceded (xGC) per 90 minutes in away games:

Brighton, meanwhile, have been in very decent form lately, triumphing 2-0 over Burnley in Gameweek 20, before claiming a crucial point at Manchester City last time out.

They secured their place in the FA Cup fourth round with a 2-1 win against Manchester United, too.

As for Mitoma, he netted the all-important equaliser against Man City, and later struck the post, earning the praise of his manager in the process.

“We all know that he can make a difference in a game, that he can be a game-changer. He is still not 100%, but we need to push him to 100%, we need to get him involved more and more into our game.” – Fabian Hurzeler on Kaoru Mitoma

Fabian Hurzeler’s side also face Fulham, Everton and Crystal Palace over the next four Gameweeks, so Mitoma, whose ownership currently sits at just 1.9%, may be worth considering as a punt, particularly against Bournemouth, with right-back generally considered an area of weakness in Andoni Iraola’s squad.


DAN BALLARD

  • FPL ownership: 2.9%
  • Price: £4.6m
  • GW22-26 fixtures: CRY | whu | BUR | ars | LIV

It is the set-piece threat of Dan Ballard (£4.6m) that has seen us choose the Sunderland centre-back as our next differential.

The 26-year-old has already successfully scored twice from dead-ball situations in 2025/26.

He’s also had more attempts from set plays than any other Fantasy defender except Pascal Struijk (£4.3m), with 15.

Above: Defenders sorted by set-piece shots (Total) in 2025/26

Crucially, no team has conceded more goals from set plays than Crystal Palace this season.

Macclesfield Town’s Paul Dawson was the latest player to profit, heading in from a free-kick in the FA Cup last weekend. It was the 10th goal from a set-piece that Palace have let in out of the last 12 they have conceded.

“We can’t defend set plays. It is not acceptable, I need to find solutions… it is embarrassing.” – Oliver Glasner

Without a win in nine games across all competitions, Oliver Glasner’s team look vulnerable.

As for Sunderland, they have kept clean sheets in four of their 10 home matches this season, whilst ranking a very respectable eighth for xGC in front of their own fans (12.53).

And with fixtures against West Ham United (a) and Burnley (h) to follow, as well as Fulham (h) in Gameweek 27, there’s much to like about Ballard, who has banked 16 defensive contribution (DefCon) points in 2025/26.


HARVEY BARNES

  • FPL ownership: 1.4%
  • Price: £6.1m
  • GW22-26 fixtures: wol | AVL | liv | BRE | tot

A ‘proceed with caution’ pick due to his long-term rotation risk status, Harvey Barnes (£6.1m) nevertheless looks like a very solid differential in Gameweek 22.

The in-form winger was benched in midweek, but now appears poised for a start against Wolverhampton Wanderers on Sunday.

Even more so with Jacob Murphy (£6.0m) exiting the Carabao Cup encounter with a hamstring issue.

Barnes, who before Tuesday night had netted four goals in his last two matches against Leeds United and Bournemouth, leads all Newcastle United midfielders for minutes per shot in the box this season (45.9).

He is also Newcastle’s leading goalscorer across all competitions, having netted 11 times.

“It’s a brilliant return from someone who has always had the ability to score, always been a very, very good finisher, we see that in training consistently. It’s just great to see him getting the rewards on a game day.

“His two goals today were excellent and really pleasing for me because one comes off one side, one comes off the other, so he’s showing versatility.” – Eddie Howe on Harvey Barnes after Newcastle’s win over Bournemouth in the FA Cup

Sitting in just 1.4% of FPL squads, it suggests Barnes can provide a short-term solution in the mid-price bracket.

First up is Wolves, who, while showing recent signs of improvement under Rob Edwards, have still kept just one clean sheet all season.

Then it’s Aston Villa at St James’ Park, at which point Barnes could potentially be moved on for someone like Enzo Fernandez (£6.4m), when we’ll hopefully know a bit more about where Liam Rosenior plans to deploy him.


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  1. 1justlookin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    2 hours, 28 mins ago

    Cunha to Rice or wait another week?

    1. Atimis
      • 9 Years
      1 hour, 30 mins ago

      Just do it.

  2. Atimis
    • 9 Years
    2 hours, 27 mins ago

    Can't really find a mid that I would be sure about while buying this week, I considered all Enzo/Rogers/BrunoG...maybe roll a dice and get Wirtz at least for the next two?

    1. Essem
      • 8 Years
      1 hour, 22 mins ago

      Yeah me too. Between Enzo and Wirtz at the mo. Might end up with Rogers!

  3. Bucket Man
    • 7 Years
    2 hours, 24 mins ago

    Hi all. Any ideas 2FT. 0.4ITB.

    Could roll. Could do Gabriel in, Cunha/Bowen out, Thiago/DCL in.

    Sanchez
    Timber, VVD, Hall
    Cunha, Foden, Rogers, Bruno G
    Haaland, Ekitike, Bowen
    Dubravka, Andersen, Rodon, King

  4. Bobby_Baggio
    • 14 Years
    2 hours, 21 mins ago

    Evening all. 4FT & 0m ITB. Thinking Raya + Cunha > Pickford + Rice. Thoughts?

    Raya
    Andersen - Gabriel - O'Reilly - Richards
    Saka - Wilson - Foden
    Thiago - Haaland - Ekitike

    (Verbruggen) - Taverner - Cunha - Alderete

    1. Bucket Man
      • 7 Years
      1 hour, 41 mins ago

      Look good moves.

    2. Boxwoods
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 hour, 34 mins ago

      Like the move for Rice. Consider Roefs over Pick? Can play Verbruggen 25 and 26.

    3. Bobby_Baggio
      • 14 Years
      1 hour, 4 mins ago

      Cheers both

  5. FPLMACKEM
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 hours, 17 mins ago

    Raya
    Virgil, Gabriel, Hall
    Cunha, Wilson, Foden, Saka, Anderson
    Ekitike, Haaland (c)

    Dubravka, Andersen, Rodon, Guiu

    5ft 0.9 itb.

    Cunha to?

    A Bruno G
    B Gakpo
    C Enzo Fernandez
    D Rogers
    E Tavernier

    1. Brazooka
      • 13 Years
      1 hour, 16 mins ago

      A or C

    2. Bucket Man
      • 7 Years
      1 hour, 15 mins ago

      D. Think Bruno G fixtures turn soon. Enzo surely players deeper but some lovely fixtures.

  6. Kodap
    • 8 Years
    2 hours, 12 mins ago

    How is this WC looking? 0.8m in the bank currently.

    Sanchez
    Gabriel - Tarkowski - Chalobah
    Saka - Rice - Bruno F - Enzo - Semenyo
    DCL - Haaland

    Dubravka - Kroupi - Mukiele - Van de Ven

    1. Sam (Team Sam)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      1 hour, 35 mins ago

      Interesting.

      I can't decide between Saka and Timber as my third Arsenal.

      My Saka draft is this:

      Verbruggen, Dubravka

      Gabriel, Chalobah, Richards, Andersen, Mukiele

      Saka, Bruno F, Rice, Rogers, Semenyo

      Haaland, Thiago, DCL

    2. Ray85
      • 8 Years
      1 hour, 20 mins ago

      Maybe Senesi instead of Van Der Ven as Bournemouth have some good fixtures.

    3. dragen5
      • 7 Years
      1 min ago

      Two points: 1) Will Saka justify his price and arsenal spot? Not sure. 2) Will semenyo get the minutes? Otherwise nice.

  7. Il Capitano
    • 5 Years
    2 hours, 10 mins ago

    2FT 0.2m

    Raya Dubravka
    Chalobah O'Reilly Senesi Andersen Alderete
    Saka Foden Cunha Rogers Bruno G
    Haaland Ekitike Guiu

    O'Reilly + Cunha to Gabriel + Enzo?

  8. Albrightondknight
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 hours, 9 mins ago

    What’s up with the date sorting under all articles. On my iPhone 14th articles are displaying before today. Eventually got here.

  9. Sam (Team Sam)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    2 hours, 8 mins ago

    Gabriel and Rice are locks in my team.

    Is there a consensus on who is the best third Arsenal pick between Timber and Saka?

    They have the same points per game for the season so far.

    1. Boxwoods
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 hour, 53 mins ago

      I'm interested in views on this too. Feel like Saka has the greater upside going forward, plus he allows a pivot to any other mid bar Salah (and best facilitates a move for Mo if he ever regains relevance). Nice to be able to quickly jump on the likes of Bruno F, Palmer (if he can get more healthy/consistent), or Foden (if he can regain form), Mbeumo, etc. There are ample similarly-scoring alternatives to either Saka or Timber. One might make the case that Timber is better because cheaper, but I think, on balance, I prefer Saka for the above reasons.

    2. Ray85
      • 8 Years
      1 hour, 52 mins ago

      Saka. Arsenal not keeping as many clean sheets and with Ben White fit, Timber could be rotated with the fixture list Arsenal have. Trossard is a decent shout too.

      1. dragen5
        • 7 Years
        28 mins ago

        most clean sheets this season? But agree on white being a threat on minutes

        1. Ray85
          • 8 Years
          3 mins ago

          I meant recently, we conceded to Chelsea, Bournemouth, Villa and Brighton, Palace recently. I had the Timber and Gabi double up recently but probably sticking with just Gabi for now. Senesi and Munoz have some great fixtures coming up too.

    3. FPL Blow-In
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      1 hour, 13 mins ago

      If White becomes nailed at any point or Calafliori is out long term, I’m tempted to do Gabriel, White and Timber/Rice

      1. Ray85
        • 8 Years
        just now

        Hincapie will likely become LB and Timber back at RB

  10. Brazooka
    • 13 Years
    2 hours, 6 mins ago

    Who to start upfront?

    Foden, Semenyo, Szobo, Bruno G, Wilson
    Haaland, Ekitike, Woltemade

    1. Boxwoods
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 hour, 15 mins ago

      Bench Szobo

  11. Absolutely Muñozed
      2 hours, 5 mins ago

      Cunha to
      1. Rice
      2. Bruno F
      3. Keep FT

      1. Boxwoods
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 hour, 18 mins ago

        1 and look for Bruno in a couple of weeks.

      2. Brazooka
        • 13 Years
        1 hour, 16 mins ago

        Non-United

      3. Il Capitano
        • 5 Years
        1 hour, 16 mins ago

        1

      4. Ray85
        • 8 Years
        1 hour, 8 mins ago

        I'm going straight to Bruno F from Cunha

    • Sid07
      • 11 Years
      1 hour, 56 mins ago

      Cunha to
      1) Rogers
      2) Enzo
      3) Save

      1. Ray85
        • 8 Years
        1 hour, 23 mins ago

        Rogers

      2. Jet5605
        • 11 Years
        1 hour, 15 mins ago

        2

      3. F4L
        • 11 Years
        1 hour, 11 mins ago

        rogers

    • adstomko
      • 9 Years
      1 hour, 54 mins ago

      Thoughts on Branthwaite if on WC?
      I can easily have him as 15th player on bench.
      If he's on the bench tomorrow, is it worth it?

    • Ray85
      • 8 Years
      1 hour, 53 mins ago

      Foden to Enzo/Mitoma, or hold?

      1. JBG
        • 7 Years
        1 hour, 45 mins ago

        Mitoma

        1. Ray85
          • 8 Years
          1 hour, 44 mins ago

          Cheers. Reckon he'll definitely start? I think I've had enough of Foden now. He did reward me for those 4 weeks but 5 consecutive blanks now.

          1. adstomko
            • 9 Years
            1 hour, 29 mins ago

            I'm probably choosing Mitoma on WC. Rested in the FA Cup, for the most part.
            Also, the next 3 fixtures are teams with weak right sides of the pitch

            1. Ray85
              • 8 Years
              1 hour, 23 mins ago

              Yeah could be a decent cheap differential. Gives the option to upgrade elsewhere too. I think I'm leaning towards Mitoma over Enzo.

              1. adstomko
                • 9 Years
                1 hour, 14 mins ago

                I'm in the same boat.
                I have a sneaky feeling Santos is benched vs Brentford, meaning Enzo is deeper, but tough call.

      2. Boxwoods
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 hour, 44 mins ago

        Hold at least thru this week.

        1. Ray85
          • 8 Years
          1 hour, 44 mins ago

          Has the risk of not starting/playing quite deep now.

          1. Boxwoods
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            1 hour, 34 mins ago

            I know, and share your frustration. I'm giving him at least this one. Many would say hold thru Wolves.

            Yes, it's Pep so who knows (but early sub mid-week seem more promising than not for mins), and yes, he's been underwhelming, but can always pop up with a huge score and decent record against United (who've conceded to the likes of Wolves, Burnley, and Leeds of late). Sure Enzo or Mitoma could outscore him this week, but risk of a huge delta in their favor seems contained.

            If dead set to ship Foden, I'd probably pick Enzo over Mitoma.

            1. Ray85
              • 8 Years
              1 hour, 24 mins ago

              I can't see him playing against Wolves at all. That's a prime game to give minutes to the others, Marmoush is back as well.

              Kinda want to save a Chelsea spot for Palmer depending on where he plays. And if he's back then Enzo loses his pen/set piece appeal.

              1. Boxwoods
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                1 hour, 15 mins ago

                Sounds like you’ve decided then. Best of luck.

    • marpy016
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      1 hour, 48 mins ago

      Who to bench:

      A) Rice
      B) Thiago
      C) Bruno G
      D) Wilson

      1. Jet5605
        • 11 Years
        1 hour, 17 mins ago

        A

      2. JBG
        • 7 Years
        1 hour, 14 mins ago

        D

      3. F4L
        • 11 Years
        1 hour, 12 mins ago

        b

    • Jet5605
      • 11 Years
      1 hour, 48 mins ago

      Best option here? 1 FT and 0.8 ITB.

      A - Dorgu > Alderete (bench Gud)
      B - Other?
      C - Roll

      Pickford
      Gabriel - Timber - Gudmund
      Foden - Szob - BrunoG - Rice
      Haaland - Ekitike - DCL

      Dubravka - Cunha - Andersen - Dorgu

      1. F4L
        • 11 Years
        1 hour, 14 mins ago

        A

    • Amartey Partey
      • 6 Years
      1 hour, 47 mins ago

      Interesting write up about Carrick and how he might use Cunha in the 10 and play Bruno deep. This might make Cunha a decent option again. I’m holding him for now.

      1. Ray85
        • 8 Years
        46 mins ago

        Bruno usually plays deeper than Cunha anyways and still outscores him, on pens, set pieces and gets decent defcon. I'm going to make the change before price swaps I think.

        1. AC/DC AFC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          34 mins ago

          Cunha dropped last night

          1. Ray85
            • 8 Years
            5 mins ago

            I saw annoyingly as I was gonna make the transfer today

      2. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        46 mins ago

        Where?

        It's more likely that Bruno is in that role with 4 ATB.

        Cunha left wing and Mbeumo right with Sesko no. 9?

        1. Amartey Partey
          • 6 Years
          just now

          https://www.premierleague.com/en/news/4549172/analysis-how-will-man-utd-look-under-carrick

          That's what I think too, but it's not guaranteed, especially since Cunha isn't a very good winger. Maybe Carrick will surprise us all and get the best out of Cunha?

    • F4L
      • 11 Years
      1 hour, 45 mins ago

      Donna
      Gabriel Romero Senesi
      Saka Foden Rogers Rice Bruno g
      Haaland DCL

      Collins Tarkowski 2FT 0.2itb

      A - Save FT
      B - Tark to Ballard and bench Senesi
      C - B but also do Foden to Enzo. get some money itb for potentially bringing in Salah for Saka in a gw or 2.

      cheers

      1. Ray85
        • 8 Years
        1 hour, 42 mins ago

        A

      2. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 hour, 40 mins ago

        You're set to roll I think

        Give Foden one more go?

      3. F4L
        • 11 Years
        1 hour, 27 mins ago

        thanks both

    • ct mariner
      • 7 Years
      1 hour, 40 mins ago

      Start 1 - have Semenyo and Haaland:

      1. Foden (manu away)
      2. H. Wilson (lee away)

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 hour, 36 mins ago

        1

        But Wilson could smash one in again

        1. ct mariner
          • 7 Years
          1 hour, 33 mins ago

          Yep - bit of a coin toss which I tend to call wrong!

    • jonnybhoy
      • 13 Years
      1 hour, 38 mins ago

      Best Keane replacement for 5m? Cash?

    • NotsoSpursy
      • 8 Years
      1 hour, 36 mins ago

      Which one would you have ?

      A) Bruno F - Wirtz - Foden - Rice - Rogers
      Haaland - Watkins

      B) Wilson - Foden - Rice - Rogers
      Haaland - Watkins - Ekitiki

      1. Sam (Team Sam)
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        1 hour, 6 mins ago

        Is this just asking whether you go Wirtz and Watkins or Rogers and Ekitike?

        Toss a coin for that I reckon. Pretty similar

    • FPL Sanky
      • 2 Years
      1 hour, 36 mins ago

      GTG??

      Raya
      Gabriel Timber Alderete
      Gordon Rogers Wilson Foden
      Haaland (c) Thiago Ekitike

      Bench- Dub LeFee Senesi O'Reilly

    • IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 9 Years
      1 hour, 34 mins ago

      BB worthy?

      Dubravka (liv)
      DCL (FUL)
      Alderete (CRY)
      Tarkowski (avl)

      1. FPL Sanky
        • 2 Years
        46 mins ago

        Save it for blanks and doubles later on

        1. FPL Blow-In
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          6 mins ago

          Not going to be using BB in a blank surely

          1. FPL Sanky
            • 2 Years
            5 mins ago

            I meant save it for later when you have more info on blanks and doubles

      2. FPL Blow-In
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        46 mins ago

        Not even close

      3. The 12th Man
        • 12 Years
        41 mins ago

        you'll have better weeks later on.

      4. Thanks all!

    • The 12th Man
      • 12 Years
      1 hour, 33 mins ago

      Petrovic
      Gabriel,Senesi,VVD
      Cunha,Saka,Foden,Cherki,Wilson
      Haaland,Ekitike

      Dubravka,Dalot,Guiu,Keane 0.3m itb 2FT’s

      Which option?
      A) Petrovic,Cunha > Roefs,Rice
      B) Keane,Cunha > Timber,Enzo (means keeping Petrovic longer)

      1. FPL Blow-In
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        1 hour, 24 mins ago

        A

        1. The 12th Man
          • 12 Years
          1 hour, 23 mins ago

          Yeh probably makes more sense. Better keeper and would leave enough funds for Foden to Bruno F in 24.

    • AD105
      • 9 Years
      1 hour, 15 mins ago

      Best MID for next 2 weeks only?

      1. adstomko
        • 9 Years
        1 hour, 9 mins ago

        Wirtz or Mitoma

    • Nightf0x
      • 10 Years
      1 hour, 15 mins ago

      Alison (dub)
      Richards mukiele gabriel (clyne keane)
      Saka rice foden gordon (king)
      Tiago haland watkins

      Intial thoughts, 2ft, which ?

      A) saka clyne to wilson timber
      B) foden king to enzo wilson
      C) saka king clyne -4 to enzo wilson timber

    • Sam (Team Sam)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      1 hour, 9 mins ago

      Down to the final 3 spots on my wildcard.

      Verbruggen, Dubravka

      Gabriel, Chalobah, Guehi, ***, Mukiele

      ***, Rice, Bruno F, Rogers, Semenyo

      Haaland, DCL, ***

      For the final 3 spots I'm currently thinking of either

      A) Tarkowski, Saka, Kroupi
      B) Timber, Bruno G, Thiago

      What do you reckon?

      1. Jebiga
        • 13 Years
        1 hour, 6 mins ago

        I like b

    • Gandalf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      1 hour, 9 mins ago

      A. Go for Wirtz for the next few (BUR, bou), and then potentially change to Rice after

      B. Go straight to Rice

      C. Keep Cunha for another GW and re-assess next GW

    • Jebiga
      • 13 Years
      1 hour, 7 mins ago

      Who are the best 3 arsenal picks?
      Gabriel, Rice and?

      1. Timber
      2. Saka

      ?

      1. FPL Blow-In
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        1 hour, 5 mins ago

        It’s not Saka

      2. mixology
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        1 hour, 1 min ago

        1 but also warming up to Raya again

    • estheblessed
      • 11 Years
      1 hour, 4 mins ago

      a) Cunha to Wirtz
      b) Play Wilson and roll