Despite Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers being hesitant about owning Cole Palmer (£10.6m) due to the possibility of managed minutes, the goals and assists keep coming.

He’s started 11 of Chelsea’s last 12 league matches, culminating with a Gameweek 25 hat-trick and 12 points against Leeds United a few days later.

So it’s no wonder that hundreds of thousands are buying him now. However, is it too late?

After hosting Burnley on Saturday, the Blues’ fixtures toughen significantly.

So, in this article, we look at how Palmer usually fares in the so-called trickier fixtures.

RECENT PENALTIES

Firstly, let’s address the spot-kick situation. Five of his six recent goals were penalties, which feels unsustainable. Although that was probably also said last time!

Looking at the underlying stats, Chelsea’s tendency to receive them may not be a fluke. They rank near the top for take-ons, and only Aston Villa have won more fouls across the pitch than their 314.

Liam Rosenior’s side are up in fifth for touches inside the box (699), although the teams above have only had between two and four penalties, compared to their seven.

So, from now on, we’ll look at non-penalty numbers. And make them per 90 minutes, knowing he’s often being handled carefully.

PALMER’S NPXG DATA

This season, Palmer is actually underachieving for non-penalty expected goals (NPxG), scoring three times instead of 3.73.

Yet none of his goals took place against a fellow side from the ‘Big Eight’: Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa.

So far, he hasn’t exceeded 0.26 NPxG per 90 versus this level.

Looking at the next six post-Burnley opponents, Palmer’s reverse five meetings (highlighted in green) totalled 16 points and 1.19 NPxG (0.238 average). He missed the Arsenal encounter.

The England international was particularly quiet up at Newcastle and Man United.

DOES THIS FIT WITH 2024/25?

Last season, Palmer played every league match except the trip to Arsenal. Nobody throughout the league had more long-range shots (63), though he underachieved for xG (15 v 17.27) and NPxG (11 v 13.33).

None of his best eight NPxG per 90 numbers came against the ‘Big Eight’, instead having fun when facing Brighton and Hove Albion, Wolverhampton Wanderers, and relegated duo Southampton and Leicester City.

In 13 matches against the best, he delivered two non-penalty goals, three assists and a commendable average of 5.77 points. Even so, 10 of these outings came at 0.33 NPxG per 90 or lower.

In fact, six matches versus upcoming opponents (Newcastle, Man United, Everton twice, Man City twice) had no more than 0.08.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

Being on penalties is, of course, good news, and this shouldn’t be held against Palmer. Brentford’s Igor Thiago (£7.0m) has taken seven of them and remains an outstanding option.

But Palmer’s open-play numbers aren’t particularly good versus tougher teams.

Furthermore, once Champions League matches reappear for Chelsea, there could be a bunch of early substitutions.

Well done to managers who purchased Palmer at the right time but, as said in ‘Buy, Keep, or Sell’, it’s probably too late to buy him, unless you’ve banked lots of free transfers and earned the right to briefly punt on an explosive attacker.