This Tales of the Expected article explores the expected goals (xG) data from the last six matches.
We will assess each team from both an attacking and defensive perspective.
We will also examine the leading players for expected goal involvement (xGI), in order to gain a more accurate understanding of who is actively contributing in the final third.
TEAMS
OPTA EXPECTED GOALS (xG) – LAST SIX MATCHES
Chelsea’s attack has faltered recently, as they failed to find the net in Gameweeks 30 and 31, but in our six-match sample period, they have still created plenty of chances.
That said, their finishing has been poor, with only eight goals from 12.11 xG.
| Gameweek | Opponent | Goals scored | xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Leeds (h) | 2 | 3.13 |
| 27 | Burnley (h) | 1 | 1.99 |
| 28 | Arsenal (a) | 1 | 1.07 |
| 29 | Aston Villa (a) | 4 | 3.60 |
| 30 | Newcastle (h) | 0 | 1.39 |
| 31 | Everton (a) | 0 | 0.93 |
Joao Pedro (£7.8m), who has not scored in three of his last four matches, had merely two penalty box touches against Everton last time out, marking his lowest tally in a Premier League game under Liam Rosenior. The new Chelsea boss has already said he wants to use this break as a “reset”, with home encounters against Port Vale (FA Cup) and Manchester City (Gameweek 32) to come.
Fulham boosted their European hopes with a 3-1 win over Burnley on Saturday. In that match, they racked up 22 shots and generated 3.15 xG.
Arsenal slumped to a 2-0 EFL Cup final loss to Manchester City a day later, having created just 0.89 xG at Wembley. Recently, there have been a few below-par offensive displays in the Premier League, too, namely Brighton and Hove Albion and Brentford, when they generated under 1.0 xG on each occasion.
Leeds United, meanwhile, have scored just three goals in their last six matches, fewer than any other team, and none in their last four. In that time, they should have scored four more goals from their chances. Notably, Daniel Farke’s men rank mid-table for shots during this dry period, but only eight of their 74 attempts have been ‘big chances’, so the quality is often low.
| Gameweek | Opponent | Goals scored | xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Chelsea (a) | 2 | 1.44 |
| 27 | Aston Villa (a) | 1 | 1.35 |
| 28 | Man City (h) | 0 | 1.49 |
| 29 | Sunderland (h) | 0 | 1.15 |
| 30 | C Palace (a) | 0 | 1.12 |
| 31 | Brentford (h) | 0 | 0.52 |
Tottenham Hotspur’s performances have been dismal recently, and they’ve been desperately short of quality in the final third, having amassed only 7.01 xG in their last six matches.
Aston Villa’s attack has underwhelmed, too, but with John McGinn (£5.3m) and Youri Tielemans (£5.9m) back fit, they did look far sharper against West Ham United on Sunday. Prior to that, no team had scored fewer goals since the turn of the year.
OPTA EXPECTED GOALS CONCEDED (xGC) – LAST SIX MATCHES
