Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly Q&A, answering your burning questions. He shares his opinion on Crystal Palace players, Arsenal attackers, differential captains and more.
You can read his Gameweek 36 team reveal here.
Q: Zero, one or two Crystal Palace defenders for this week? Would doubling up on Arsenal’s defence actually be better until the end of the season?
Q: If you don’t have any Crystal Palace players, is it worth getting any in? We have no idea who will start both games and, when it comes to the league, they are well and truly on the beach.
(via Connor’s Calling and FPL Virgin)
A: With most of us already tripled up on Manchester City, the big question this week is how many Crystal Palace players do we get, if at all.
Using myself as an example, I’m sitting here with four free transfers. I can’t remember the last time I had this many and was considering investing zero in a team that doubles. Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs really set the blueprint for this last season: ignore the league and focus completely on Europe. This is a mantra that Palace appear to be following in the final few weeks.
First up, let’s look at their attackers. I don’t think any of them are worth investing in. Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.6m) looks to be managing an injury issue; he’s been subbed off around the 60th/70th-minute mark in each of their games against Shakhtar and benched in the subsequent league game. It’s a pattern we can expect to continue, which effectively makes both him and Jorgen Strand Larsen (£5.9m) redundant picks.
Ismaila Sarr (£6.4m) is slightly more tempting. He could start both in the double but that is really an extremely optimistic view, with the Senegalese international benched in both of their league games after a European night. He played the full 90 minutes against Shakhtar last night, too, so a start against Everton is far from guaranteed. His minutes in Gameweeks 37-38 look dodgy, as well, so I don’t think he is worth investing in either.
The defence is still worth a shout, although I think this is very dependent on how many transfers you have and what moves you want to make in other positions over the remaining weeks. After this week, you wouldn’t want to play your Palace defender in Gameweeks 37 and 38. Therefore, it is really a luxury move that would give you some upside just for this week.
Some rotation is possible in the backline as well. We think Maxence Lacroix (£5.2m) is the safest of the lot to start both games but could he get his rest against Everton with the others rested against Bournemouth last week? It’s possible.
Daniel Munoz (£5.9m) played only 45 minutes in the last game, and perhaps that could be his rest done. If you do have the budget, I still like going for him over Lacroix just because of the attacking upside. However, the French international is still likely to get DefCon points in both games if he does start, so that has its appeal as well.
My order of preference, if you are keen to invest, is: Munoz, Lacroix and Chris Richards (£4.4m). But I would completely be fine with skipping them and playing, say, a Bournemouth defender instead. They should get 3-4 points away to Fulham.
Everton have shown over the last few weeks that they are very capable of scoring, so a clean sheet at the weekend is far from guaranteed. Then, the second fixture is away at title-chasing City. You would really need to spike an attacking return from the defender, which is possible but less than likely. Everton have shown some frailty in defending aerial set-pieces, at least.
Q: Both Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Joao Pedro could do well this week but at the same time, they are template picks, so you are really not gaining anything anyway. Would you already sell either player for Viktor Gyokeres or, alternatively, take a wild punt on Richarlison, Benjamin Sesko (if fit) or another forward?
(via Atimis)
A: Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.8m) is top amongst all players for big chances (eight) over the last six Gameweeks. Despite this, he has found the back of the net only twice. If West Ham lose to Arsenal on Sunday, Leeds will be safe by the time they play Spurs on Monday.
So, there is a small possibility that Leeds rotate over the remaining two games to give their fringe players a chance – or they could just continue to keep playing the same XI and perhaps score more goals, with less focus on defence. You could spin it both ways. Either way, Calvert-Lewin has scored double digits only twice this season, at home to Palace in Gameweek 17 and away to Wolves in Gameweek 5, so his ceiling is a bit limited, on that evidence.
With Joao Pedro (£7.5m), he looked to be the only Chelsea player interested in scoring against Forest. The Blues do have something to play for, with European spots still open for contention, and I think the ceiling is higher with the Brazilian.
So, if you can sell Calvert-Lewin instead of Joao Pedro to fund Viktor Gyokeres (£8.9m), I would prefer that. However, for most people, that isn’t possible, given the vast difference in price.
I’m personally looking to upgrade Calvert-Lewin to Danny Welbeck (£6.3m), with money freed up by moving Cole Palmer (£10.4m) to Bukayo Saka (£9.9m). However, I’m already doubled up on the Arsenal defence, so Viktor Gyokeres isn’t an option for me.
I do like Welbeck for these last three fixtures. Brighton are realistic contenders for a European spot and all three teams they play over the next three Gameweeks are likely to have nothing to play for: Wolves, Leeds and Man Utd. It’s only one game a week, so starts should still be good.
So, perhaps the question is: is Calvert-Lewin to Welbeck likely to yield more points than Joao Pedro to Gyokeres? I think so!
Benjamin Sesko (£7.3m) is a decent shout. United’s games could all be high scoring now with their Champions League hopes sealed, and the emphasis on Bruno Fernandes’ (£10.4m) assist record. With Richarlison (£6.3m), it’s worth mentioning that Spurs are still in the bottom five for xG under Roberto De Zerbi, and Dominic Solanke (£7.1m) is perhaps back before the end of the season. If you do want to replace Calvert-Lewin and, say, are tripled up on Brighton already, then I would prefer Sesko – if it’s confirmed he’s fit.
Q: If you have triple Arsenal defence, would you stick, and target a differential from another team, or sell one to bring in Bukayo Saka or Viktor Gyokeres?
(via Conners)
A: There is no other team that I’d back to keep three clean sheets over the run-in other than Arsenal. Racking up goal difference against Burnley may not even be a priority, depending on how the results over the next few matches go. Stick with the triple defence.
Q: If you only had one Arsenal slot left, who would you go for Viktor Gyökeres or Bukayo Saka?
(via FPL Virgin)
A: Gyokeres has shown immense form of late, both domestically and in Europe, but I just trust Saka more. Kai Havertz (£7.3m) is back in the squad, and could eat into the Swedish international’s minutes. It also depends on who you are selling. For example, Palmer is more sellable than Joao Pedro, in my opinion. Gyokeres is still an excellent shout, and if you prefer dumping a forward instead, I wouldn’t put you off him.
Q: Play Bart Verbruggen (WOL) or David Raya (whu)? West Ham have scored considerably more goals at home than Wolves have managed away this season. I have a defender from Brighton and Arsenal playing too.
(via Sheffield Wednesday)
A: In terms of clean sheet odds, Brighton are even ahead of Arsenal this week, but I just trust the Gunners to keep it tight more than I would anyone else. Despite the more difficult opponent, I would go with David Raya (£6.1m) over Bart Verbruggen (£4.5m). For clean sheets, I feel the strength of the defence is more important than the strength of the opposition.
However, Arsenal’s defence is more widely owned, and if you are looking to make up ground, then double Brighton defence is more of a rank boost. There’s not that much to split them this week.
Q: Do you trust Aston Villa to send out a strong enough selection to defeat Burnley after their endeavours today?
(via Sheffield Wednesday)
A: Villa have still not mathematically secured Champions League football for next season, but a win against Burnley would do so. Doing that would mean that they can rotate without any concerns in Gameweeks 37 and 38, around their Europa League final. So, it makes sense that Unai Emery tries to clinch it against the struggling Clarets.
Q: With three Gameweeks to go, how many points behind your target rank would warrant a differential captain? For example, this week, should I captain someone other than Erling Haaland? 25 points behind? 50 points behind?
(via FPL Virgin)
A: I’m in a similar position, needing to make up about 20 points to finish in the top 100k. I will use a cricket analogy here.
I’m a fan of the Indian cricketer MS Dhoni. His speciality when chasing a mammoth total was to leave the assault till the final few overs, rather than try to attack in the middle overs. Keep yourself alive longer to have one big swing. If you need to make up 25 points, I think you can do it over three weeks rather than try to get a nitro boost in one. If you go hard now, there is a risk of having nothing to play for by Gameweek 38.
However, if you spot a poor bowler bowling prior to the closing overs, you must seize that opportunity. Do you see someone who could deliver you a big captain haul in Gameweek 36? Then it could be worth chasing. Somebody like Nico O’Reilly (£5.2m) or Rayan Cherki (£6.6m) could get you that boost you need.
If you examine the fixtures with the most haul potential from now till Gameweek 38, there are just a few. It’s Man City’s double this week, Brighton against Wolves, and Arsenal against Burnley the week after. That’s it.
So if you are close to 50 points behind, I think you go with the differential captain this week. If it’s something like 25, then a few picks against the template – eg Saka, Welbeck, Jack Hinshelwood (£5.1m), Cherki etc – could give you a ‘steadier’ boost with less risk while retaining the popular captain.
Q: I know you guys did the Joao Pedro v Dominic Calvert-Lewin transfer out priority on The Wire, but who would you ship out between Igor Thiago and Calvert-Lewin this week?
(via aurom1986)
A: I think Igor Thiago’s (£7.3m) fixture in Gameweek 37 is huge for points potential. Liverpool can be leaky on their day, as well. Brentford still have everything to play for, so rotation and giving minutes to fringe players is unlikely. I would clearly side towards keeping Thiago.
You can check out answers to these questions and more in this week’s episode of the FPL Wire
