The received wisdom has it that each season’s final day of Premier League action is a frenzy of attacking football.
As we enter Gameweek 38 of 2025/26, let’s see if Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers are right to expect a goal-fest.
Are these high-scoring climaxes just a myth?
Let’s study the goals and clean sheets of the last 15 season-enders, which is as far back as the data goes in our Premium Members Area.
FINAL DAY GOALS
| GW38 GOALS PER GAME | SEASON AVERAGE (PER GAME) | GW38 CLEAN SHEETS | SEASON AVERAGE (PER GW) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | ? | 2.75 (after GW36) | ? | 5.22 |
| 2024/25 | 2.40 | 2.93 | 5 | 4.68 |
| 2023/24 | 3.70 | 3.28 | 4 | 4.13 |
| 2022/23 | 3.30 | 2.85 | 3 | 5.45 |
| 2021/22 | 3.90 | 2.82 | 2 | 5.58 |
| 2020/21 | 3.10 | 2.69 | 6 | 5.89 |
| 2019/20 | 3.30 | 2.72 | 3 | 5.45 |
| 2018/19 | 3.60 | 2.82 | 5 | 5.45 |
| 2017/18 | 3.10 | 2.68 | 6 | 5.95 |
| 2016/17 | 3.70 | 2.80 | 4 | 5.63 |
| 2015/16 | 3.50 | 2.70 | 2 | 5.66 |
| 2014/15 | 2.90 | 2.57 | 7 | 5.89 |
| 2013/14 | 2.80 | 2.77 | 4 | 6.11 |
| 2012/13 | 3.60 | 2.80 | 4 | 5.26 |
| 2011/12 | 3.20 | 2.81 | 4 | 5.42 |
| 2010/11 | 3.20 | 2.80 | 5 | 5.03 |
While acknowledging the small sample, there is seemingly some weight behind the theory. The final day of 14 of the 15 seasons contained more goals per game than that season’s average – and that run was only busted on a disappointing final day last year!
Nine of the 10 recent nine campaigns has produced at least 30 goals on the final day, peaking at 2021/22’s 39.
It therefore follows that there is a lower-than-average number of clean sheets on the final day. On only four of the 15 final Gameweeks was the clean-sheet average exceeded.
HIGH-SCORING MATCHES
These are the Gameweek 38 games that produced at least six goals:
- Manchester United 4-2 Blackpool – 2010/11
- Newcastle United 3-3 West Bromwich Albion – 2010/11
- West Bromwich Albion 5-5 Manchester United – 2012/13
- West Ham United 4-2 Reading – 2012/13
- Leicester City 5-1 Queens Park Rangers – 2014/15
- Stoke City 6-1 Liverpool – 2014/15
- Newcastle United 5-1 Tottenham Hotspur – 2015/16
- Chelsea 5-1 Sunderland – 2016/17
- Hull City 1-7 Tottenham Hotspur – 2016/17
- Tottenham Hotspur 5-4 Leicester City – 2017/18
- Crystal Palace 5-3 Bournemouth – 2018/19
- Leicester City 2-4 Tottenham Hotspur – 2020/21
- Arsenal 5-1 Everton – 2021/22
- Southampton 4-4 Liverpool – 2022/23
- Brentford 2-4 Newcastle – 2023/24
- Luton Town 2-4 Fulham – 2023/24
One of the most memorable final-day fixtures is surely Sir Alex Ferguson’s last match as Manchester United manager, when The Hawthorns played host to an epic 5-5 draw between that season’s champions and West Bromwich Albion.
It doesn’t always follow that the goal-fests arrive in carefree dead rubbers.
Looking at the recent examples, Luton Town v Fulham and Southampton v Liverpool were. However, Newcastle were gunning for a European spot in their 4-2 win over Brentford, while Arsenal were aiming for Champions League qualification in their 5-1 victory over Everton. So too were Leicester City, when losing 4-2 to Tottenham Hotspur.
FPL managers will recall some big individual scores on Gameweek 38. Who can forget Kevin De Bruyne bringing in two goals, an assist and 19 points during Manchester City’s 5-0 closer of 2019/20? In 2023/24, Jean-Philippe Mateta fared even better still, giving his owners a memorable send-off with a hat-trick and 20 points in Crystal Palace’s 5-0 drubbing of Aston Villa.
THIS SEASON’S GAMEWEEK 38 FIXTURES
Might we be disappointed again this year?
Targeting the teams destined for relegation is always a popular tactic for managers on the hunt for big hauls.
But this season’s two whipping boys, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley, meet each other on the final day.
Perhaps the two clubs distracted by European finals (Aston Villa and Crystal Palace) can provide obliging opposition to the two title rivals – if the race is still on in Gameweek 38. Villa and Palace now have nothing to play for domestically, too. One side may be hungover come next Sunday, the other with their attention on the following midweek.
