The group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup was completed on Sunday morning, so thoughts turn to the knockout rounds.
Managers in the official Fantasy game now get unlimited transfers. Make them count, however, as the allowance drops back down from the Round of 16 onwards:
| TOURNAMENT STAGE | ALLOCATION |
|---|---|
| Before the Round of 32 | Unlimited free transfers |
| Before the Round of 16 | 4 free transfers |
| Before the Quarter-finals | 4 free transfers |
| Before the Semi-finals | 5 free transfers |
| Before the Final | 6 free transfers |
So, attempting to second-guess who will make it through the World Cup knockout rounds will be key when setting up your Round of 32 team. That goes especially so if you have no Wildcard remaining.
Remember, too, that the new Qualification Booster gives you +2 points for every player that makes it through to the next round.
With that in mind, we’ve rounded up the bookmakers’ odds for each country’s chances of qualifying for each subsequent round. We’ve stopped at the semi-finals, as even those who lose in the last four will still play in the ‘final’ round (aka the third-place play-off).
If you don’t know your Cabo Verdes from your Cote d’Ivoires, this should give you a guide as to the teams to target.
BOOKIES’ ODDS FOR EACH ROUND
We’ve divided the odds below into four tables, reflecting the four quarters of the draw.
Teams highlighted in bold are the bookies’ favourites to make it through to the next round.
FIRST QUARTER
| Team | To reach the last 16 | To reach the quarter-finals | To reach the semi-finals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 81.1% | 35.0% | 19.0% |
| Paraguay | 18.9% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| France | 84.2% | 55.6% | 42.7% |
| Sweden | 15.8% | 5.2% | 2.5% |
| South Africa | 27.1% | 5.4% | 1.3% |
| Canada | 72.9% | 22.8% | 5.7% |
| Netherlands | 62.0% | 45.7% | 19.0% |
| Morocco | 38.0% | 26.1% | 8.5% |
SECOND QUARTER
| Team | To reach the last 16 | To reach the quarter-finals | To reach the semi-finals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 68.2% | 30.2% | 20.2% |
| Croatia | 31.8% | 8.3% | 3.9% |
| Spain | 86.4% | 52.5% | 38.4% |
| Austria | 13.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% |
| USA | 81.1% | 45.7% | 15.2% |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina | 18.9% | 5.7% | 1.8% |
| Belgium | 62.5% | 34.9% | 12.1% |
| Senegal | 37.5% | 13.7% | 4.8% |
THIRD QUARTER
| Team | To reach the last 16 | To reach the quarter-finals | To reach the semi-finals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 71.8% | 45.6% | 25.1% |
| Japan | 28.2% | 14.5% | 6.7% |
| Cote d’Ivoire | 38.0% | 10.9% | 3.3% |
| Norway | 62.0% | 29.0% | 12.5% |
| Mexico | 62.0% | 22.8% | 11.7% |
| Ecuador | 38.0% | 13.0% | 5.2% |
| England | 84.2% | 58.0% | 33.4% |
| DR Congo | 15.8% | 6.2% | 2.1% |
FOURTH QUARTER
| Team | To reach the last 16 | To reach the quarter-finals | To reach the semi-finals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 89.4% | 73.9% | 56.1% |
| Cabo Verde | 10.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Australia | 43.1% | 10.2% | 4.7% |
| Egypt | 56.9% | 13.2% | 4.7% |
| Switzerland | 65.5% | 35.7% | 9.6% |
| Algeria | 34.5% | 7.5% | 2.8% |
| Colombia | 74.4% | 44.6% | 17.6% |
| Ghana | 25.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% |
