The first major surprise of the World Cup knockout stages happened in Boston as Paraguay dumped Germany out in the Round of 32.
The South American nation dug in for 120 minutes and progressed after a nutty penalty shootout, throwing away two ‘match points’ but finally prevailing in sudden death.
Here are our Scout Notes from the game, featuring match stats from our World Cup Toolkit page.
GERMANY 1-1 PARAGUAY (3-4 PENS)
- Goals: Havertz | Enciso
- Assists: Wirtz | Galarza
- Shot on target bonus: Havertz
- Tackle bonus: Galarza, Bobadilla, Cubas
- Top points scorers: Enciso (9), Galarza (7), Havertz (7), Wirtz (5), Gill (4)
TEAM STATS
PLAYER STATS
SCOUT NOTES
- It was clear what Paraguay’s game-plan was from the outset: sit deep, defend like warriors, and spring the odd break. Los Guaraníes ceded over 75% of the possession, were 7-21 down on shots, and trailed 0.42-1.49 on xG. It made for a pretty terrible spectacle – not that Paraguay will care. Gustavo Alfaro’s side doubled down on their defensive efforts when they scored completely against the run of play, with Julio Enciso ($6.6m) nodding in a recycled corner.
- Paraguay’s other forays forward were few and far between, although Enciso came close to doubling the lead when pouncing on a Joshua Kimmich ($5.5m) error. The former Brighton man was, by design (see the quote below), at the centre of what attacking Paraguay did. It was also from Enciso’s corner that Junior Alonso ($4.1m) nearly scored.
“The key is how we had to work, for me, in the centre of the field and how we had to attack through Julio Enciso’s area, behind Joshua Kimmich.” – Gustavo Alfaro, via Futbol Fantasy
- A worry, then, will be Enciso’s early, enforced departure before the hour mark. All three of Paraguay’s goals at the tournament so far have either been scored or assisted by the Strasbourg attacker.
“Julio Enciso… he ended up having problems with his adductor and everything else, that’s why he came off.” – Gustavo Alfaro, via Futbol Fantasy
- The real stars of the show were further back, however. Three of the starting midfield four delivered tackle bonus, underscoring the rearguard effort. Matías Galarza ($4.8m) supplemented his defensive efforts with an assist, his second attacking return of the tournament. That’s 25 points in three starts for him.
- Bargain-bin goalkeeper Orlando Gill ($3.5m) collected two save points and made two vital stops in the shootout, but probably pipping him to the Man of the Match award was centre-back Jose Canale ($3.6m). He was only in the starting XI because Omar Alderete ($4.1m) was unfit, and he may well drop out again if the Sunderland man recovers for the Round of 16. We didn’t get a fresh update on Alderete after full-time but he hadn’t trained with his team ahead of the Germany match due to knee discomfort. Canale made 15 clearances among 23 defensive contributions, putting his body on the line in a heroic display. Fittingly, he scored the winning spot-kick.
“José Canale played like he had 100 caps for the national team, and he played against Germany, marking the toughest strikers on the planet.” – Gustavo Alfaro, via Futbol Fantasy
- We’ve talked plenty about Paraguay but, really, the big winners from Germany’s exit are France. Assuming Les Bleus defeat Sweden, they’ll face Paraguay next – not a German side 31 places higher in the FIFA Rankings. Fantasy managers will surely be tempted to stock up on more players from Didier Deschamps’ side. The bookies’ implied odds on France reaching the semi-finals fell from evens to 8/15 after last night, with their path looking more favourable now:
Above image from the BBC
- We won’t dwell too long on Germany, who are now an irrelevance from a Fantasy perspective. They never truly convinced after their opening-day 7-1 win over Curacao, having been fortunate to beat Cote d’Ivoire in Round 2 and then lost to Ecuador (admittedly in a dead rubber, but with a full-strength XI) last time out. They didn’t have any real answers to Paraguay’s deep block here, and most of their good chances came from hopeful crosses and corners flung into the box.
- Kai Havertz ($7.8m), arguably their standout attacker this summer, bagged his third goal of the tournament here. True to what we said above, his goal – and two other good headed chances – came from crosses. Florian Wirtz ($7.8m) claimed his third assist of the World Cup in setting up Germany’s equaliser.
- Kimmich led the way for shots in this match (five), although most were innocuous efforts from distance. Jonathan Tah ($5.3m) owners can count themselves very unlucky, meanwhile. The centre-half was a threat from set-pieces, seeing one header saved and then narrowly missing contact on another delivery. He found the net with another effort, only for that to be contentiously ruled out. Some owners would have been looking at a 13-point haul (goal, Scouting Bonus, Qualification Bonus) – but ended up with two thanks to VAR!
