We’ve reached the last 16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
A whopping 14 favourites made it through the Round of 32, with just two ‘underdogs’ progressing. Even then, one of the so-called long shots was Morocco, a top 10-ranked nation who aren’t exactly bona fide outsiders.
In this article, we’ll look at who the bookies (in this case, bet365) fancy to progress to the quarter-finals and the semi-finals.
We’ve done this for two reasons:
- The new Qualification Booster gives you +2 points for every player that makes it through to the next round. Managers playing this chip, or weighing up when to activate it, will want to target players with a good chance of progressing.
- There are limited transfers in each round – so you’ll want to make them count. Morocco, for instance, have a good chance of making it through the Round of 16 but look set to meet France in the quarter-finals.
| TOURNAMENT STAGE | ALLOCATION |
|---|---|
| Before the Round of 16 | 4 free transfers |
| Before the Quarter-finals | 4 free transfers |
| Before the Semi-finals | 5 free transfers |
| Before the Final | 6 free transfers |
We’ve stopped at the semi-finals, as even those who lose in the last four will still play in the ‘final’ round (aka the third-place play-off).
BOOKIES’ ODDS FOR EACH ROUND
We’ve divided the odds below into four tables, reflecting the four quarters of the draw.
Teams highlighted in bold are the bookies’ favourites to make it through to the next round.
FIRST HALF
| Team | To reach the quarter-finals | To reach the semi-finals |
|---|---|---|
| Paraguay | 8.7% | 2.7% |
| France | 91.3% | 72.6% |
| Canada | 29.9% | 4.0% |
| Morocco | 70.1% | 20.7% |
SECOND QUARTER
| Team | To reach the quarter-finals | To reach the semi-finals |
|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 34.5% | 22.6% |
| Spain | 65.5% | 45.3% |
| USA | 50.0% | 18.1% |
| Belgium | 50.0% | 14.0% |
THIRD QUARTER
| Team | To reach the quarter-finals | To reach the semi-finals |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 68.2% | 31.7% |
| Norway | 31.8% | 14.7% |
| Mexico | 43.1% | 19.0% |
| England | 56.9% | 34.6% |
FOURTH QUARTER
| Team | To reach the quarter-finals | To reach the semi-finals |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 82.8% | 58.6% |
| Egypt | 17.2% | 6.0% |
| Switzerland | 41.3% | 22.5% |
| Colombia | 58.7% | 12.9% |
France, Argentina and Morocco, in that order, are the biggest favourites in their respective last-16 matches.
France and Argentina also have the highest percentage chance of reaching the semi-finals.
If you’re looking at ‘set and forget’ players to buy now, the two 2022 World Cup finalists are the clear stand-outs.
By contrast, USA and Belgium can’t be separated by the bookies in their Round of 16 tie! A veritable 50/50 match.
England, too, are only marginal favourites for their ‘away’ clash with Mexico.
While the bookies think the Three Lions will make the last four (along with France, Argentina and Spain), there’s less conviction with the England projection than there is with the other three.
