With Gameweek 4 fast approaching, is now a good time to play the Free Hit chip? Here we take a look at the pros and cons.
PROS
GOOD LIVERPOOL + BRIGHTON FIXTURES THIS WEEK – NOT SO MUCH NEXT WEEK
With Liverpool facing Fulham next up, the overriding feeling is that the Cottagers are in for a shellacking. Fulham have conceded seven goals this season already, while their expected goals conceded of 6.24 is the second-worst in the Premier League. As for big chances conceded, their 14 is at least three more than any other team.
This clearly bodes well for Liverpool, whose goals are starting to flow. Only four teams have scored more than their six to date and Alexander Isak (£9.1m) is coming into form. The Swede is the joint-top scorer in the league with three goals, scored twice in Gameweek 3 and is a shoo-in to start. At his price point, Isak is hard to squeeze into your team without having to sacrifice Erling Haaland (£15.5m) or a premium midfielder like Cole Palmer (£9.6m). But it isn’t if you play the Free Hit chip.
Other Liverpool likely lads worth plumping for this week include Dominik Szoboszlai (£7.0m) and Victor Munoz (£6.5m). As the Reds’ penalty and set-piece specialist Szoboszlai represents excellent value, while Munoz, who has a goal and an assist to his name already, and has a great chance of adding to that tally against sorry Fulham.
Crucially, after Gameweek 3, the fixtures take a steep turn for the worse for Andoni Iraola’s side. According to the Fixture Ticker, only Brighton and Sunderland have a more daunting run over the next six fixtures. So, this Gameweek, managers can triple up on Liverpool players without being stuck with them for the rocky road ahead.
Hardest six fixtures GW4-9
Gameweek 4 is also a great opportunity to load up on players from the joint-highest scoring team in the league. Brighton take on a Coventry side who lie bottom of the division with no points and no goals scored.
Top five teams for xG
Maxim De Cuyper (£4.8m) would make an excellent signing, as a defender who is effectively deployed as a winger. He hauled in Gameweek 1 and took four corners against Leeds United, one of which assisted Luka Vuskovic‘s (£5.0m) equaliser. The Croat would also make a good option at the back against the shot-shy Sky Blues. Like De Cuyper, Vuskovic is a great bet to keep clean sheets and thrive at the other end. No defender has had more shots than his six – not even De Cuyper, who has had five. De Cuyper’s expected goal involvement (xGI) is unrivalled among defenders, at 1.90.
Other Seagulls of interest include Pascal Gross (£5.6m), who has a goal and an assist already and takes penalties and set-pieces, and Diego Gomez (£5.0m), who ranks joint-second among midfielders for shots taken (12)
Like Liverpool, the opponents become significantly more testing from Gameweek 5, with Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City among their next six matches. Few other managers will be so stacked with Liverpool and Brighton assets due to this fixture swing, so those who are could take a massive mini-league leap with their low-owned difference makers.
CHELSEA!
It would be reckless to go into Gameweek 4 without at least two Chelsea assets, and many will be trebling up on the free-scoring Blues for their encounter with Hull.
Those who currently own only one Chelsea player can save a transfer or two by playing the Free Hit to reach their desired three of Morgan Rogers (£7.6m), Cole Palmer (£9.7m) and Joao Pedro (£7.7m).
They can squeeze them in by sacrificing a premium asset like Erling Haaland (£15.5m) for just one week.
AVOID THE MANCHESTER DERBY
Further to that point, playing the Free Hit ahead of Gameweek 4 enables managers to dispense with players from Manchester United and Manchester City for a derby which could go either way.
Bruno Fernandes (£12.0m) and Bryan Mbeumo (£7.9m) can be relinquished for a week in a match in which they might struggle to return, while the ‘Enzo Roulette’ headache of which City player to pick can be eased by dispensing leaving them well alone.
The Manchester players would then come straight back into your side for Gameweek 5, when Man United can have a field day against faltering Fulham and Man City welcome Sunderland.
CONS
YOU’LL LIKELY WANT CHELSEA PLAYERS FOR THE LONGER TERM
Bringing in Chelsea assets is a must for this week, but their form and fixtures are so good, owning them for only one week is not really enough. From Gameweek 6, the Blues boast the third-best run of matches, and so managers will be loath to lose their star men after just a week or two.
Easiest fixture run GW6-11
WOULD TRIPLE CAPTAIN BE BETTER?
Another problem with breaking the emergency glass on the Free Hit chip is that doing so means you can’t use the other chips at your disposal.
This week is also a good Gameweek to use the Triple Captain chip. Joao Pedro or penalty-taking Cole Palmer are in fantastic form and will fancy themselves to break Hull’s resistance. The Tigers have yet to concede but that has been as much by good luck as good judgment. They actually have an expected goals conceded (xGC) of 5.87, and their luck has to run out at some point. Facing the division’s top scorers looks a likely starting point.
DO YOU ALREADY HAVE A LOT OF CHELSEA, BRIGHTON AND LIVERPOOL PLAYERS?
Managers who are already well stocked with Liverpool, Brighton and Chelsea players, plus a couple of Arsenal defenders, should think twice about playing the Free Hit.
There is very little upside to augmenting your team with a few players here and there or sideways moves, when you are already well covered with the assets likely to haul. Sometimes in FPL, doing nothing is the best course of action.
BETTER SAVED FOR ANOTHER GAMEWEEK?
The Free Hit chip might well be better served further down the line. In Gameweek 11, for example, when Liverpool play Manchester United, or the following Gameweek, when an even bigger headache could be solved when Arsenal face Manchester City.
GAMEWEEK 4 FREE HIT
Our Scout Picks is effectively a Free Hit team, so here’s what we’ve put together for the week ahead.
Explanations on the picks can be found here.