With Fantasy Premier League (FPL) on hold due to the November international break, now is an ideal time to explore the expected goals (xG) data from the last six Gameweeks.

We will assess each team from both an attacking and defensive perspective.

We will also look at the top players for expected goal involvement (xGI) in order to gain a more accurate understanding of who is actively contributing in the final third.

TEAMS

OPTA EXPECTED GOALS (XG) – LAST SIX GAMEWEEKS

CHERRIES ON THE UP

Bournemouth rank second for xG over the last six Gameweeks, behind only Manchester City.

Having failed to win any of their first six Premier League games, the Cherries have since won all four of their subsequent matches, with nine goals scored and only one conceded.

In that winning streak, when they have faced Sunderland, Manchester United, Leeds United and Ipswich Town, they have generated 9.9 xG!

Bournemouth have forced eight errors leading to goals in 2026/27 so far, twice as many as any other team, as Marco’s Rose intense pressing approach starts to bear fruit.

With Eli Junior Kroupi (£7.3m) and Alex Scott (£5.9m) both back to fitness, the outlook is positive on the south coast.

VILLA’S OVERHAULED ATTACK

Aston Villa also made a slow start, with one draw and three defeats in their first four matches.

However, Unai Emery’s men are unbeaten since, with the Villans finding their rhythm from an attacking perspective after a major summer overhaul.

Nicolas Jackson (£7.1m) and Johan Manzambi (£6.2m) have recorded 12 attacking returns between them over the last six Gameweeks, with a promising partnership starting to develop between the pair.  

Above: Players sorted by goals + assists over the last six Gameweeks

Investment in Aston Villa could pay off in the coming weeks, with three of their next four opponents in the bottom five for expected goals conceded (xGC) in the table below.   

WHAT’S HAPPENING WITH BRIGHTON?

Brighton and Hove Albion were top for xG when we last looked at this table after Gameweek 5, but have since dropped to eighth.

They have still netted the joint-most goals in our sample period (13), but given their underlying attacking data, could we soon see a bit of regression?

If their current output continues, that will likely happen, but it is also important to consider the fixtures.  

Over the last six Gameweeks, Fabian Hurzeler’s side have faced Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool and Brentford, as well as Sunderland and Crystal Palace. They consequently ranked bottom of the ticker for fixture difficulty.

Upper mid-table for xG is actually pretty good, then, given the opposition faced.

In contrast, Albion now top the ticker right the way through to the turn of the year.  

CHELSEA NEED PEDRO BACK

Chelsea are joint-seventh for goals scored over the last six Gameweeks (nine), but only 15th for xG, with 7.53.

Having failed to find the net against Sunderland and Tottenham Hotspur recently, their lack of creativity has been amplified by Joao Pedro’s (£7.6m) injury.

Indeed, in three of the four matches the Brazilian has missed in our sample period, Xabi Alonso’s side have failed to create more than 0.9 xG.

In the other, at home to Manchester United, their xG tally of 3.01 was only really swelled after Lisandro Martinez’s (£4.8m) red card just after the hour mark…

Even with Pedro available, it is far from flawless, but his absence is clearly affecting the team’s output in the final third. The sooner he returns to full fitness, the better it will be for those Fantasy managers relying on the Chelsea attack.

THE XG UNDERPERFORMERS

As shown in the table above, Crystal Palace, Sunderland and Nottingham Forest should each have scored four more goals from their chances over the last six Gameweeks.

Sunderland have been awarded two penalties in that time and move down to 12th for non-pen xG – a position that is probably more in line with expectations.

But are Forest owed some luck?

Their xG of 9.54 is well above the five actual goals they have scored, with Dan Ndoye (£5.5m) and Liam Delap (£5.3m) missing seven Opta ‘big chances’ between them.

That said, there are similarities with Oliver Glasner’s Crystal Palace side, who significantly underperformed their xG in both full seasons he was in charge at Selhurst Park. Rushed shots and wayward finishing are trends to monitor as we move forward, then.

Leeds United meanwhile have scored just three times from 6.77 xG over the last six Gameweeks.

OPTA EXPECTED GOALS CONCEDED (XGC) – LAST SIX GAMEWEEKS