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Eliteserien – Looking towards GW6 is everything right where it belongs?

Before ‘Runde 6’ begins, I’d like to have a quick look at the league table, well, not a quick look, something more akin to an inspection of sorts, to make sure we really know what’s going on across the North Sea.

Bodo/Glimt have made it five wins out of five, already starting to break away from reigning Champions Molde who are now two points behind them after drawing 2-2 with Kristiansund. Brann took full advantage and saw off bottom of the table Sarpsborg 1-0 to move up into third, while Mjondalen scored an uncharacteristic hat-trick of goals away to whipping boys Aalesunds to keep up the pace with the leading pack.

Haugesund, Stabaek and Viking all won to nil against IK Start, Stromsgodset and Sandefjord respectively, and despite last year’s Golden Boot winner Torgeir Borven completing his move to Rosenborg, it wasn’t enough to get them a much-needed win in their clash with Valerenga, as two of the biggest clubs in Norwegian football had to each settle for a point in their 1-1 draw.

So, after five games, I want to figure out what exactly these results and this table aren’t telling me right now. It’s all far too easy to pay a quick glance over a column of sixteen teams and from that information immediately infer that top means best, bottom means worst, and it goes down in that order. I’m not too sure that’s 100% accurate (apart from Bodo/Glimt, they really are the best, it’s not even up for debate, at all) and so I created six other league tables using the following sets of data:

1) Goals For – Fairly simple really: Is there a correlation between goals scored and league position. Instinctively you would assume the more goals scored equals a higher position in the league. This is incredibly primitive analysis but it’s a good place to start as we’ll be able to see who is scoring pointless goals compared to those teams who are nicking points left, right and centre

2) Goals Against – Again, pretty simple: A better defence should equal a higher position in the table. One of the reasons this is, like the ‘Goals For’ table, somewhat enlightening to look at, is because it can show us which teams are able to concede more but still manage to do enough to avoid losing. There should be a decent amount of correlation, but it’s more likely to show some teams out as having leaky defences who only get away with it because they’re able to score so many

3) Total Shots – I want to see if there’s any direct correlation between total shots and league position and from there, look into why there is or isn’t. Depending on the results, we’ll be able to see if there are any standout teams that are simply kicking the ball around hopelessly in search of a goal and by the same token, get an overall idea of creativity

4) Shooting Accuracy – This is where we start to take a look at what all those shots mean. As mentioned above, are there teams who have a lot of shots but actually most of them aren’t very good? Or is the opposite true, and we have teams who maybe shoot far less but are twice as accurate as those shooting twice as much?

5) Goals Scored before Conceding – This is a very specific table but is quite important. As you can gather by the name, this will show us how many goals a team will score on average before conceding. This kind of analysis is important because it gives us more of an insight into how beatable certain teams are that we just don’t get from looking at the other correlations of data

6) Comparison of Conversion Rates (Goals For/Goals Against) – Basically, if the number is equal to 1, this means there is an equal likelihood of that team letting in a goal from the same number of shots as they are to score from that number.

My aim is to be able to identify any under/over-performing teams at this early stage and what that might mean for them moving forward throughout the season. I also want to see just how much correlation we have – is this data accurate and telling enough for us to be happy with the actual league positions and how understanding what all of this means can mean for us regarding Fantasy Football assets. I will not spend too much time on each table as the overall picture is where the most difference can be appreciated.

1) GOALS FOR

Eliteserien - Looking towards GW6 is everything right where it belongs? 1

No surprises at the top as Bodo/Glimt and Molde are 1 and 2 with 19 and 14 goals respectively. Kristiansund and Brann swap places in 3rd and 4th but perhaps rather surprisingly we see Odd jump up the table into 5th, joint on 10 goals with Brann but decidedly ranked beneath them due to efficiency/accuracy. They move up from 10th place to 5th, and also rather surprisingly, Aalesunds move up from 15th to 9th. The rest of the table is pretty much as is, with a couple of teams moving up and down a place or two.

Odd and Aalesunds have scored more superfluous goals than any other teams in the league. This means they are scoring goals that aren’t winning them matches – not necessarily a bad thing for Fantasy Managers, but it is rather telling that these teams are underperforming in regards to making those goals count for something.

Taken at face value it’s helpful to know because Aalesunds have quite cheap players and if they’re scoring, that represents good value for money. It’s also worth remembering that since Torgeir Borven has left Odd, it would be quite reasonable to expect Odd to score less goals over the coming weeks relative to what they already have done.

2) GOALS AGAINST

Eliteserien - Looking towards GW6 is everything right where it belongs?

This is where things start to change somewhat. Going explicitly by Goals Against (the smaller the value being more valuable) we get a new order to the teams at the top of the table. As ever, we will always differentiate between places even if the values are the same. For example, Mjondalen and Brann have both conceded the fewest number of goals so far this season (4), but Mjondalen ‘top the table’ by virtue of the fact they have faced more shots.

The next four teams are Rosenborg, Stabaek, Molde and Bodo/Glimt. What’s interesting about this is why Bodo/Glimt are bottom of this grouping – it’s due to their rather high against conversion rate (ACR). They may have only faced 37 shots (the lowest in the division, no less) but they’ve still conceded 6 goals. That may not sound too bad, after all only two teams have conceded less, but in relative terms it’s somewhat enlightening. They have an ACR value of 16.2%. To put this in perspective it’s not quite as good as Sandefjord’s but slightly better than IK Start’s.

The only team to remain in exactly the same place in both the ‘data table’ and ‘actual table’ is Stromsgodset who place 7th in not only the Goals For Table, but the Goals Against Table too. Talk about consistency. The rest of the teams are somewhat rearranged but there’s nothing too telling here, other than Sarpsborg placing outside of the relegation zone as four teams have actually conceded more goals.

3) TOTAL SHOTS

Eliteserien - Looking towards GW6 is everything right where it belongs? 3

If you never take a shot you’re never going to score. The universe is only has a few own goals to hand out, and that usually happens around Christmas time, ready for the ‘Bloopers’ videos to be watched in the background during the festivities. But seriously, football is, by and large, a numbers game and if you are spending too much time holding on to the ball or rely on playing direct counter attacks without actually being able to counter, how can you ever expect to score?

It should follow, then, that the more shots you have, the more goals you score, and therefore the higher your league position? Not quite. In fact, there’s only two teams that are where they should be. Bodo/Glimt stay firmly seated on their perch with a whopping 91 shots in just 5 games. That’s truly ridiculous but not as counterintuitive as which team is only just behind them on 87 shots… Sarpsborg 08. Yes. This is not a typo. They have scored the fewest goals in the league but have had the second-highest amount of shots. In order for them to be able to score a single goal, they will need to get through about 30 shots beforehand. This is the worst for conversion rate (FCR) in the league – 3.4% – and is actually quite a helpful piece of information. They are underperforming. By quite some way. Perhaps this can be taken as good news by Fantasy Managers as surely the slump can’t go on forever and when things start to click there should be goals not too far off. Perhaps.

Kristiansund and Molde round off the top 4 with Brann dropping down to 8th overall. Only three teams (Bodo/Glimt, Molde and Kristiansund) have better FCRs than Brann, however. IK Start move up from 14th to 5th and Odd once again jump from 10th to 6th. Two teams showing how being so wasteful in front of goal can directly influence league position. There seems to be a running theme as we move through these tables – Odd are absolutely, without doubt, underperforming. In every single analysis they’ve placed higher in the data tables than actual tables.

Once again, somewhat bizarrely, Stromsgodset are unmoved. Mjondalen, Viking, Rosenborg and perhaps surprisingly FK Haugesund prop up the table with 47, 47, 46 and 45 shots taken respectively. This is in great contrast to the real-life strugglers who all managed to escape the throes of a relegation battle in our data table.

4) SHOOTING ACCURACY

Eliteserien - Looking towards GW6 is everything right where it belongs? 2

Total shots can only mean so much. After all, as Sarpsborg and Start have shown us, if you’re really bad at shooting, you’re not going to score many goals, regardless how many shots you have. Shooting accuracy should give us a more accurate representation of a team’s worth along with their overall standing in the league. All things being said, if every single team had the same amount of shots, we shouldn’t see too many surprises.

Once again, this is where looking back at multiple tables, allows us to better understand what this table actually means. Haugesund, Mjondalen and Viking are our top 3 teams. All this means is that from their low number of total shots they have been able to score a fairly decent number of goals. All three teams have only scored 6 goals, way behind the top five highest scoring teams in the league. Could this mean if they invested in more adventurous football they would see more goals? Maybe. It’s something to consider when looking for differential/’under the radar’ Fantasy picks without a doubt.

Sarpsborg and Aalesunds move up a few places but what’s most interesting is Bodo/Glimt plummeting into 11th place. On the flip side of this is the fact they have had 91 attempts – which is such a ridiculous number in the first place, it’s no wonder they’re so far down in this data table. Stromsgodset drop into 14th place with just 27.4% of their shots on target while Sandefjord prop up the table with just one out of every five shots on target.

While there is some movement it’s not wholly representative of what is actually going on and the difference in % accuracy between 1st and 9th place is just 6.6%.

5) GOALS SCORED BEFORE CONCEDING

Eliteserien - Looking towards GW6 is everything right where it belongs? 5

As we might’ve expected, this is where true correlation lies. Seven teams stay exactly where they are, and the majority of movement is restricted to just a position or two. As ever there is one outlier – Odd. After scoring 1.3 goals, they will tend to concede. Only the actual top five teams in the league have more impressive records which begs the question – what on Earth is going on?

Even though we’re all aware that Rosenborg are not up to scratch this season, it’s not because they are statistically underperforming at all, they’re just not playing very well. The difference between themselves and Odd is that Odd are faring quite well in most of our data tables, compared to their actual position in the league. This could potentially be explained by a couple of Borven-inspired results, and thus we are dealing with skewed data. I feel like this is probably the more logical explanation as to what we are seeing, the following game weeks should result in a gradual drop-off where Odd’s expected position starts to fall back in line with their actual position.

The bottom four stay exactly where they are, the only other notable movement being Haugesund dropping down to 12th. This table is probably the most important table we have – the fidelity is almost exact. It shows us what to expect going forward and tends to suggest who we could envisage as being favourites in certain matchups. Of course, for this to be more valuable to us we would want more time to have elapsed, but as ever it’s indicative of trends that are beginning to ring slightly truer.

6) COMPARISON OF CONVERSION RATES

Eliteserien - Looking towards GW6 is everything right where it belongs? 4

Mjondalen and Bran have almost identical conversion rate comparison values (CRCV) of 1.98 and 1.96. To explain further, this means Mjondalen are almost twice as likely to convert one of their own chances, as they are to letting in an attempt on goal. This could be invaluable information if proven to be accurate and meaningful but is only truly useful if combined with the other tables and more information.

Granted Mjondalen may not concede many goals but it doesn’t mean they won’t lose games – they already have done this season – rather it shows us how likely they are at minimising the threat of shots on their goal. Consistency speaks volumes and if we look back at these tables at the halfway stage and see Mjondalen still near the top, I would fully expect to see them in a similar position in the actual table.

Eleven of the eighteen teams have a CRCV of 1 or more. Bodo/Glimt are actually only 6th most capable in the league of being more likely to score from one of their own shots than to prevent a goal from an opposition attempt. This shouldn’t be too surprising as they are a far more attacking team than Mjondalen or Brann. What it does tell us about Mjondalen and Brann, though, is just how clinical, ruthless and efficient these teams are, and that while Bodo/Glimt are marauding their way through the division, they can be scored against, you’re just probably not going to win because of how many chances they create and goals they ultimately score.

Once again, the Borven effect is real. Odd’s CRCV is 1.59 (4th) best in the league, but as we’ve probably already established, this is more than likely being skewed by Borven’s performances.

CONCLUSION

If you’ve made it this far – thank you for bearing with me! While these tables can certainly be seen as being premature in their creation, they at least provide us with some kind of blueprints from which we can draw some assumptions as well as use to plan ahead:

• Odd are potentially a team in transition, possibly even more so than we think – is the Borven effect real or are they seriously, seriously underperforming?

• I hate to break it to you, but yes, Sarpsborg really ARE that bad. The only thing we’ve been able to prove is they absolutely hopeless at shooting

• Rosenborg aren’t as unlucky we may have thought. They are probably right where they should be. Despite having a decent defence, they’ve not really done much else to suggest they should be much higher up the table

• Stromsgodset are incredibly consistent and have almost perfect overlap from their analysis to real life positioning. This is exciting because it shouldn’t really happen and shows us that sometimes these things work out a bit better than expected. They’re a middle of the road, straight-edge, no-frills, ‘probably won’t get you loads of points but every now and then might surprise you’ kind of a team

• Bodo/Glimt are the real deal. Their stats are scary and even if they can be scored against, they will ALWAYS score more

• Molde are right behind Bodo/Glimt, just not quite as good. That’s all. They’re just not quite as good

• The most likely cause for Haugesund’s data to be ‘interesting’ is their heavy 7-2 loss to Kristiansund, which could in turn explain why Kristiansund fair so well in certain parts of this analysis

 

This exercise is not and has not been exhaustive but I hope it’s opened your eyes a little bit to the patterns that are constantly being created and shaped by the beautiful game of football, right beneath our noses week in, week out, and perhaps when we are a bit further down the line we can revisit this analysis and see how much things have changed.

I hope at the very least it’s been an interesting read, and if you can take something more than that from it, then great. I am happy to provide in full the tables if anybody wants that information, please just request this in a comment if you are interested.

When we hit the halfway stage, I will be in a position to provide a lot more information regarding teams’ stats and performances. These will duly be represented in the form of multiple articles during the break.

ReindeerHotdog ESF: https://en.fantasy.eliteserien.no/entry/12433/event/17 Follow me on Twitter: @ReindeerHotdog

336 Comments Post a Comment
  1. ReindeerHotdog
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Trondsen with ANOTHER assist. HMM.

  2. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Strand Larsen, Saletros, Islamovic, Zachariassen all amongst the points this gw. Pre season bandwagons finally starting to come good

    1. ReindeerHotdog
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      I would say it's somewhat worrying that Rosenborg have scored 3 and Borven has not been involved at all.

      Zachariassen is one of the best players in the league in my opinion - if he starts getting some goals/assists in he goes.

      I do think Trondsen is absolutely running the show, though. He's looked good all season and if he was in a team like Glimt or Molde, he'd have far more attacking returns.

      1. El Puqi
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 8 months ago

        I’m really thinking about bringing in Zachariassen for Sandberg. Fixtures for Rosenborg look very good, unlike Haugesund.

        Could be solid ”differential”.

        Also, Rosenborg defender could be good.

        1. ReindeerHotdog
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          I was thinking something similar. I like the look of their upcoming games.

          Very tempted:

          Edvardsen & Sandberg for Zachariassen and Trondsen for -4.

          Not expecting Kristiansund to give much away to Stabaek, but I could see Rosenborg destroying Stromsgodset.

          Something to think about anyway. Only way I can get Zachariassen in, is by taking a hit.
          (I'm not shipping the best player in the league - Zinckernagel - just to get him).

          1. El Puqi
            • 4 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            Could be interesting if you’re willing to take the hit. Triple RBK is very risky but with those fixtures I’d be surprised if they don’t produce.

        2. Alan Watts
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          Salsvik at 5.9 looks a great option if we knew he keeps his place over Hovland

          1. Alan Watts
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            *Valsvik

  3. ReindeerHotdog
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 8 months ago

    Are ESN genuinely saying that first goal was a Helland assist? On what planet is that a Helland assist? Surely has to be changed.

    1. El Puqi
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 8 months ago

      I just don’t understand... How blind can a man be to tell that’s an assist by Helland and not Borven.

    2. MTPockets
        3 years, 8 months ago

        Didn't see it but definitely Helland's assist

        1. ReindeerHotdog
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          Well that's good enough for me then.

          1. MTPockets
              3 years, 8 months ago

              This is what they've come out with (I'm not claiming it's correct): https://twitter.com/OffisiellESF/status/1279891645018882048

              "After another review of the video images, Opta has concluded that Sandberg boxed the ball in the head of Valsvik on the 1-0 score to RBK. Therefore, the points remain unchanged as they are now.

              Ps. The round will close and the automatic switches will be made as soon as Hansen's point is removed."

              1. ReindeerHotdog
                • 3 Years
                3 years, 8 months ago

                At least they finally changed the assist to Borven. I get how they missed it but it was quite clear after seeing a couple of replays he headed it into his face hah.

                I know it's only 3 points but I'll take all I can get!

                (And my reply to you was in jest. Apologies if my sarcasm cos across more sardonic than jovial, twas nothing serious).

                I saw that tweet and wasn't too sure what that meant regarding Borven.

                1. MTPockets
                    3 years, 8 months ago

                    No worries, I took it as jest.
                    Mistakes are regularish in this game, but they almost always get corrected eventually. I think the problem is Opta aren't as exacting with Eliteserien stats so takes a while and/or they have to manually override.

        2. ReindeerHotdog
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          Hope everyone had a good week!

          We have an entire week before the next game so we'll have at least one new article between now and then, maybe more.

          And by the way: my -8 resulted in me losing just 3 points. So I'll take that. I might've broken even if Adekugbe didn't get sent off. You win some, you lose some.

          Captaincy is a tricky thing to nail down. There's a lot to be said about it - it's a very, very decisive weekly chip. If, like me, you've blanked yet again but made a good, sound logical decision - don't be frustrated. It happens. It seems to be that Glimt are stealing all the points at the moment!

          1. Willmissudimitrypayet
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            Who are you captaining? Eikrem? Nailed it with Junker myself 🙂

            Looking forward to the article!

            1. ReindeerHotdog
              • 3 Years
              3 years, 8 months ago

              Wow nicely done. Junker/Zink seem to be fixture proof!

              Brought in Berisha and captained him. Wasn't to be.

              Suppose you can't go wrong with Glimt, like you couldn't with Borven when he was at Odd!

          2. Onz
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            Guday all. Slept through all the excitement as I stayed up to watch Burley - Sheffield so will watch Stabaek- RBK and one other match today. I am not working atm as just had surgery so plenty of time for my WC and the weather is not great in New Zealand this week.
            Eikrem K fail to ponder on, that money goes a long way but having to hide behind the sofa each week is not much fun.
            Thanks for the articles, they have been fun to read while the body heals.

            1. ReindeerHotdog
              • 3 Years
              3 years, 8 months ago

              Rest and heal up mate. Surgery is never fun.

              I'm in a position to write these articles due to something life-changing that happened to me last year, so I can at least somewhat relate to how a life-altering condition (lifelong or just temporary) can mess with you.

              I intend to keep the articles coming so hopefully you'll have more content to enjoy. Hopefully this year we can get more people interested in one of the most entertaining leagues in the world (in my opinion!) and keep adding to a great fan base.

              1. Onz
                • 6 Years
                3 years, 8 months ago

                🙂

        3. Alan Watts
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          Do we reckon there will be dgws ?

          If not next week could be a great shout for 2 captains Bodo vs AAFK.

          Also a chance they could lose some players over the season.

          1. Ramboros
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            I think GW12 is confirmed as DGW.

          2. ReindeerHotdog
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            As far as I'm aware, like Ram says, GW12 should be a double:

            Sandefjord vs Molde
            IK Start vs Mjondalen
            Molde vs IK Start

            So it would appear having multiple Molde players would be a good idea when dealing with that week.
            It's yet to appear on the website but pretty certain it'll be official.

            1. Onz
              • 6 Years
              3 years, 8 months ago

              Thanks it is shown on the Molde and Start sites in their fixture lists.

            2. Alan Watts
              • 5 Years
              3 years, 8 months ago

              Cheers...

              Good fixtures for Eikrem, but likely reduced minutes.

              Also Molde forward rotation. Not keeping CSs at moment.

              Hmm in current form Glimt next week might be best 2 captain option.

          3. Onz
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            DGW12 is the first confirmed. Will post the fixtures when my typing hand gets better.

        4. Team Cruel
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          3 Valsvik
          2 Åsen
          1 Islamovic

          In case anyone's wondering

          1. Onz
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            Thanks. I have not watched the game yet but the fans on the RBKweb page rated Asen highly and said he was much improved.

            1. Alan Watts
              • 5 Years
              3 years, 8 months ago

              Any word on what's happening with Valsvik/Hovland in that CD position?

              1. Onz
                • 6 Years
                3 years, 8 months ago

                It is Valsvik's place to loose now imo. He is respected by the fans for his performance and effort. Hovland is not atm.

                1. Alan Watts
                  • 5 Years
                  3 years, 8 months ago

                  Cheers... Valsvik started the first 2 games, did well.

                  Then Hovland the next 3, and RNK conceded .

                  Wasnt sure it was injury
                  related or rotation.

                  With template attackers and Glimt perma captains, gaining rank might come down to defender transfers

        5. Hotdogs for Tea
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          Is Eikrem too expensive to hold if he isn’t our captain ?

          1. Mullered in Maenam
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            I just sold him and a 4.5m mid for Pellegrino and Koomson. I'll wait until nearer GW 12 to which Molde to bring in for the DGW. With the BG guys in such form I find it hard to have a 12.5m player I won't captain.

          2. ReindeerHotdog
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            I remember suggesting he'll get reduced minutes this season and that idea was widely renounced.

            That was just my opinion and that's one of the reasons I've avoided him but I suppose the argument is that he could come on and play - similarly to Mahrez - for 30/40 minutes and still have the potential to haul.

            I'm not so sure I buy into that, though. I think he's overpriced compared to what else you can get, but his underlying stats are pretty good.

            But, minutes are telling as are results and the form of other players.

            I'd say it's perhaps too early to make too many judgements regarding this - Bodo/Glimt are potentially going to lose multiple players so there's that element to consider. I'm not sure I'd be getting rid of him if I had him, but I wouldn't be making any plans to bring him in. That's me erring on the side of caution, though.

            We're only a fifth of the way in - a lot can happen and it's hard to read too much into what's happened thus far.

            1. Mullered in Maenam
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              3 years, 8 months ago

              I remember you saying RHD and I took the punt on him anyway which hasn't worked out - see, you're not the only one that has decisions back-fire on them!

              One of the things I've picked up on and taken on board from the FPL restart is to only think two games ahead, so every second gameweek with the two free transfers (given no long term injuries) is to go with the best two players I can afford for the following two GWs, even if that means selling the 'top player'.

              In FPL I've just transferred out Salah today and I'm taking that approach with Eliteserien and Allsvenskan this season to see how it works out. Throw everything you have at this week and the next and worry about the other GWs later. Maybe by mid-season I'll have to revise that and play more steadily but I think it's worth exploring.

              I got off to relatively poor starts in Eliteserien and Allsvenskan so I wanted to take a different approach to how I usually play, which is usually quite conservative/safe. What's your thoughts?

            2. Hotdogs for Tea
              • 8 Years
              3 years, 8 months ago

              i am not too bothered about a bit of rotation, it’s more to do with the risk of not captaining a highly owned and perma captained player (Salah, Kane etc in the past) with an EO over 100% in your relative league position

              Alternative captains have now developed so Eikrem is not as essential as he may have been if Junker et al are the go-to players for the arm band.

        6. Hotdogs for Tea
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          contrary to general Fantasy Football protocol I often go early with my Eliteserien transfers to hopefully build up a bit of team value ... good or bad idea ?

          1. Men in green tights
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            Do the same thing , must be because that's the way I play FPL does not always work but at the end of the day suppose to be a bit of fun

          2. Men in green tights
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            What TV have you got already , I used my WC to help a lot with mine as it is up to 103.1

            1. Hotdogs for Tea
              • 8 Years
              3 years, 8 months ago

              just 101.6, but not played my WC

          3. Mullered in Maenam
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            Good idea for me, I do the same, it backfires once or twice a season but I do like to have as much TV for the 2nd WC as possible, played first WC already TV = 102.6

          4. Onz
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            My SV is only 101.6 atm but I usually make my transfers early due to time constraints and short deadlines. It also usually helps with accruing value but I am a bit punty and do not pick last weeks form as much as some do.
            On WC this week because I am not working and have the time.

            1. Hotdogs for Tea
              • 8 Years
              3 years, 8 months ago

              Is there some transfer deadline or something this week that will see some of the BG players leaving ?

            2. ReindeerHotdog
              • 3 Years
              3 years, 8 months ago

              2nd overall has SV of 101.1 and 0.6 itb. That's basically the same.

              The money you get isn't completely decisive, it's how you use it. Sounds obvious and almost a bit facetious to say, but it's true. If you focus too much on catching rises on the wrong players, well, then you'll have the wrong players.

              It is nice to catch those rises and make a bit of profit especially if you buy a player with the aim of selling him on for a bit of profit, in the meantime make use of the points he'll bring.

              It's hard not to get sucked in though.

        7. Men in green tights
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 8 months ago

          When does JPH move takes place , anyone knows
          Cheers

          1. Hotdogs for Tea
            • 8 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            no idea but it’s now a -4 for me if it’s this game week 🙂

          2. Onz
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            Bodo nu have the headline "Jens Petter Hauge postpones the Belgium transition: - What happens here that matters" I am not able to read the article but I assume he is not going just yet. It will hit the press and fan pages soon.

            1. Onz
              • 6 Years
              3 years, 8 months ago

              Quote from nrk.no " The plan was for me to go down to Belgium tomorrow, but I will be a few more weeks, he says.

              The young player is so happy at home in Bodø that he does not want to leave the club. Glimt has won the first six matches of the Elite Series this year and is leading the table.

              - I'll put it down for a while. Now it floats here at home, and I really enjoy it. It's good to be me by day, he says.

              The young boy has three goals and three goals in six games.

              Where others in the Glimt camp would rather downplay the talk of serial gold, Jens Petter Hauge is a little more outspoken. When asked if the nesting grounds are good enough to end the season at the top, he is ready to speak.

              - I think we have been showing for over a year and a half now, so it does not surprise me that we are all up there. We are good enough to win gold".

              1. MTPockets
                  3 years, 8 months ago

                  cheers

            2. Team Cruel
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              3 years, 8 months ago

              Had an interview last week. Basically was saying that he really wants the move but there's no urgency at the moment considering the circumstances (corona uncertainty + Glimt flying high)

          3. TAT
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 8 months ago

            How do I upgrade Edvardsen to Pelegrino for a hit? It will have to be a Hanche-Olsen downgrade, right? 1.8m itb.

            Sandberg
            Daland - Gregersen - Hopmark
            Salétros - J Hauge - Wolff Eikrem - Zinckernagel - Edvardsen
            Børven - Junker
            (Granlund - Hanche Olsen - Hustad - Bojang)

            1. Hotdogs for Tea
              • 8 Years
              3 years, 8 months ago

              if Hauge leaves you may want Berg ?

              1. Onz
                • 6 Years
                3 years, 8 months ago

                See above re Hauge.

                1. Hotdogs for Tea
                  • 8 Years
                  3 years, 8 months ago

                  ah ok, maybe he is safe for a few game weeks.

                  1. Onz
                    • 6 Years
                    3 years, 8 months ago

                    the translation is not great but I get the idea he will stay maybe on loan for the season.

                    1. TAT
                      • 6 Years
                      3 years, 8 months ago

                      If Hauge stays for more than just a few gameweeks, he's staying in my team. Will have to look elsewhere for the downgrade, I think.

            2. Eytexi
              • 5 Years
              3 years, 8 months ago

              Has to be Hachne-Olsen that goes imo. That said, I really like the look of Edvardsen & won't be selling for the next 4.

              1. TAT
                • 6 Years
                3 years, 8 months ago

                He might be the one that has to go. I'd rather keep him, but the upside in getting Pellegrino is huge.

              2. TAT
                • 6 Years
                3 years, 8 months ago

                Re. Edvardsen, I'd rather keep him too, but the price jump from Salétros to Pelegrino is too big for it to be a possibility.

            3. MTPockets
                3 years, 8 months ago

                Yeah looks like you need 0.9m so it's either him or one of the big guns

                1. TAT
                  • 6 Years
                  3 years, 8 months ago

                  Yes, and I don't think I dare transfer out Børven or Eikrem now that I have both of them. Missing out on Børven points before his move to Rosenborg did enough damage!

            4. ReindeerHotdog
              • 3 Years
              3 years, 8 months ago

              Sandberg dropped 0.1.

              Eurgh. People getting scared about Molde fixture? Weird. He's cheap, on pens and scoring. Molde's defence is dodgy at the moment. Surely Haugesund score.

              Everyone kneejerking to get Pellegrino in that's what it is.

              How inconsiderate is that? Taking money off me is not much fun.

              1. Team Cruel
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                3 years, 8 months ago

                It's 3 blanks in a row and his two first goals were penalties that probably shouldn't have been awarded. Last midweek they failed to score for 90 minutes with him on set pieces, 10 seconds after he's subbed off they score from the following corner. I'm keeping for now but I can totally see why he's on the chopping block. At the moment he's the first mid I'd sacrifice if someone new emerges in midfield (rest of the mid is Eikrem-Zink-Hauge-Pelle).

                I wouldn't say Pelle is a kneejerk transfer. Guy has 17 goals in his last 2000 minutes. I mean he has scored more on his own in 330 minutes than the entire Haugesund team has in 540 mins. He would have been in most teams already if not for that minor injury.

                Haugesund are really lacking fluidity and spark, that's why I don't understand why Stølås isn't starting. Surely he's fully fit by now. If not then how on earth is he fit enough to make the bench every week? If he doesn't start soon I'll just have to bite the bullet and get Desler.

                1. ReindeerHotdog
                  • 3 Years
                  3 years, 8 months ago

                  If Sandberg wasn't on pens I doubt he'd still be in my team, I agree.

                  Pellegrino has the stats to back him up - he's taken his chances when they've come to him even though he has played far less minutes.

                  Kneejerk was probably the wrong term - I didn't mean it to suggest it was an unfounded move, I just meant people have probably looked at both players and gone "swapsies" and that's led to Sandberg dropping.

                  Big attraction of Sandberg is his price. Not many midfielders that price in a relatively good side on pens. It's a big sticking point for me. That might be clouding my judgement in wanting to hold.

                  Pellegrino is an exciting player. I do like him. I'm not sure if he's fixture proof yet. I try not to let form from last season be a factor when rationalising these things - that was a while ago and shouldn't affect how he's playing now. Still, as you say he looks good on that basis.

                  The biggest annoyance is doing the transfers so early. We have an entire week to wait and now it's going to be a case of how much is Pellegrino going to rise, and is Sandberg going to freefall? That was the biggest gripe - it's brought about this uncertainty which creates more doubt. I'd rather not make any moves just yet but already losing 0.1m is of course less than ideal.

                  1. El Puqi
                    • 4 Years
                    3 years, 8 months ago

                    Pellegrino statistically looks incredible. Already 7 goals but only 1 assist from 4 big chances created (most in the league). 1.4 key passes a game isn’t amazing but he has rarely had full games and tbf that is still 22nd highest in the league. 2.4 shots a game is 5th best in the league as well. Also, he plays in a very decent side and is their talisman. 9.3 or whatever is a bargain. Considering Eikrem is 12.7.

                    I’m not sure what to do with Sandberg tho. I kinda want to keep him for the reasons you said above, but I’m really tempted to switch to Zachariassen. Fixtures look very nice.

                    And I got to agree with you about early transfers. I was thinking about moving Sandberg on yesterday but thought to myself that nah it’s still early and I could easily change my mind with possible team news etc. But surprise surprise, Sandberg’s price already goes down straight after weekend games end. Bs.

                    1. ReindeerHotdog
                      • 3 Years
                      3 years, 8 months ago

                      Yeah I'm aware of his stats. He does look good. For me, I want more data to make a decision on him.

                      I'm more inclined to go for Zach. I think he's a better player in a team that should be better than KBK.

                      So, it's one of those things for me to give some time.

                      I said at start of season I think Eikrem is over-priced. I think some of these prices are a bit iffy.

                      I'm expecting Rosenborg to step up now and press on.

                      Only sub I've made for this week is bringing Sormo in. 4.5m defender who likes a run.

                      I may ship Sandberg for Zach for -4. Think that's such a borderline decision. On paper Sandberg is underperforming as Cruel says.

                      If Pellegrino was 8.2 I'd bring him in. But to get him I need to make another sub. So that ties in with waiting a bit.

                      Main reason I've not got him is Berisha as I have 3 expensive forwards. Hopefully that pays off this week.

                      1. El Puqi
                        • 4 Years
                        3 years, 8 months ago

                        Yeah fair.

                        Long-term Berisha -> Pelle will be a good move. Maybe to do in the next couple of weeks.

                        Who is Sormo?

                        I’m also thinking about a new defender, for Holmgren Pedersen I think.

                        1. El Puqi
                          • 4 Years
                          3 years, 8 months ago

                          Sormo with 5 key passes and 2 big chances created in the last game, damn.

                          1. ReindeerHotdog
                            • 3 Years
                            3 years, 8 months ago

                            I like the idea of having two KBK defenders that cost me 9m in total. I think that's insane value especially as one plays in midfield and potentially on pens, and the other is quite attacking. I liked Sormo from the first game I saw him play (vs Rosenborg at start of season). His name kept getting mentioned but I didn't follow up.

                            Bringing him in for Adekugbe has given me 1m back and lets me grab Zachariassen this week for -4 if I feel the urge. I think it's just a matter of time until Rosenborg find a groove. I don't want to miss Zach's points especially as most people will overlook and go for Pelle. It's obviously a risk to some extent but meh, I have Hanche-Olsen, Hauge, Zinck, Koomson, Borven, Junker, Sandberg - I have majority of the good players already.

                            I really want to see how Pelle does over the next few weeks and go from there.

                            1. El Puqi
                              • 4 Years
                              3 years, 8 months ago

                              Sounds good. I was looking at Aasbak as he was on FK’s and corners but is now out injured. Aasbak & Sormo could be the thing for me. Then Solheim and hopefully fully-fit Stolas next to them. Or Eggen Hedenstad.

                              Yeah I really fancy bringing in Zachariassen.

            5. MTPockets
                3 years, 8 months ago

                Borven assist added

                1. Hotdogs for Tea
                  • 8 Years
                  3 years, 8 months ago

                  nice, auto subs next ? 🙂

              • Hotdogs for Tea
                • 8 Years
                3 years, 8 months ago

                updated

              • Eytexi
                • 5 Years
                3 years, 8 months ago

                Back-to-back 1.2k green arrows, now from 2.3k > 1.1k.

                Ohi > Børven already done, Zinck (K) vs. AAFK.

                1. ReindeerHotdog
                  • 3 Years
                  3 years, 8 months ago

                  I think it's almost impossible not to cap Zinckernagel for this GW tbh.

                  Junker is in 55% of teams. That's insane.

                2. ReindeerHotdog
                  • 3 Years
                  3 years, 8 months ago

                  And nice one on rank btw. Impressive stuff.

              • El Puqi
                • 4 Years
                3 years, 8 months ago

                64 (-4) points this week with OR of 1.1k.

                Risky moves of Eikrem, Salvesen & Bamba to Pelle, Borven & Berisha (K) worked out nicely, apart from captain.

                Better captaincy pick and possibly another green arrow but not this week.

                Playing Attack! Attack! -chip next week. Anyone else thinking about it?

                I hope everybody had a nice week and good luck with future moves!

                1. ReindeerHotdog
                  • 3 Years
                  3 years, 8 months ago

                  Nice one mate. Good stuff. Captaincy is a bit of a lottery - as long as you're happy with the original decision it makes the outcome mean less.

                  They were good moves - I think I'd prefer Borven over Eikrem for the rest of the season and especially for the week just gone, you brought in the better options.

                  I thought Berisha was a solid captaincy pick. Just unfortunate it didn't come off. On the flip side - when is it ever a bad idea to captain a Bodo player? They're insane.

                  Attack! Attack! is tempting. I have the same front three as you: Borven, Junker, Berisha. They all have favourable fixtures. It could definitely pay off. Something to think about definitely.

                  1. El Puqi
                    • 4 Years
                    3 years, 8 months ago

                    Cheers.

                    Yeah I’m very happy with those moves. Worked out this week and overall, like you said, Borven over Eikrem.

                    Should just captain Bodo players every week. Zinck & Junker so consistant but still very explosive. Perfect captaincy picks.

                    Attack! Attack! for me personally, is a chip I’d like to use early to have no pressure in terms of having a strong forward line in a double GW or something. I see the value in midfield and rather have big 5-man-midfield with a 4.5 striker than big 3 up top. And the fixtures are pretty damn good, like you said. Maybe Bamba over Berisha would have been better but Berisha (ODD) is not bad either. Could be the way to have a big boost in OR.

                    1. ReindeerHotdog
                      • 3 Years
                      3 years, 8 months ago

                      Definitely something I'll think over. I might bring in Zach for -4 and play that chip. Try to double down on Rosenborg for some even more points.

                      At least we have a week to think it over. Don't need to rush our decisions for a change!

                      And I agree with you re: midfield. I'd rather have the 5 man midfield than 3 attackers - but as you say, trying to take advantage of fixtures earlier on then migrate into that formation. I might even wait until the break to drop my 3rd attacker. It'll depend on the fixtures going forward and when I think is the right time to commit to it.

                      If Lauritsen starts getting goals for Odd then that's potentially problem solved.

                    2. Men in green tights
                      • 5 Years
                      3 years, 8 months ago

                      This is the transfer I have done for this week Bamba out and Berisha in expecting a better return
                      Cheers

              • Sebinhooooo
                • 6 Years
                3 years, 8 months ago

                What is the equivalent of a top 100k finish in FPL to the Eliteserien?

                1. Men in green tights
                  • 5 Years
                  3 years, 8 months ago

                  Guess about in the he top 1000

                  1. Team Cruel
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 8 Years
                    3 years, 8 months ago

                    I get your logic but imo there's a higher percentage of hardcore players (relative to total players) in ES than in FPL.

                    I'd say top 3k. Finishing top 100k in FPL and top 3k in ES are both fairly straightforward imo if you follow the template. I'd have it somewhere around:

                    100k = 3k
                    10k = 500
                    1k = 50

                    1. Men in green tights
                      • 5 Years
                      3 years, 8 months ago

                      See where you are coming from as in FPL there are loads of dead teams as well just generated to win for the week or month awards.
                      But you have also got a lot of new players to this league now as I only started halfway through last season so this is really my first .

                    2. ReindeerHotdog
                      • 3 Years
                      3 years, 8 months ago

                      Second season for me.

                      My captain fails are the only reason I'm not top 2k. Literally. The points difference between top scorer in my team per week and K have cost me more than 10k places.

                      This league is far more unpredictable than FPL imo. Very hard to follow unless you really know all the players and teams etc...

                      I'd happily say I'd be hitting top 1-2k within the next couple of seasons but probably going to run into more trouble this time around.

                      I finished within top 9k last year and I only played half the season.

                      Only thing I needed to do differently was Start with Borven like I planned to (but decided against due to chatter about Odd/Rosenborg) and I'd be well up there.

                      I suppose there is that element of the game too. Smaller margins in ESN. You can pinball all over the place.

                      1. Men in green tights
                        • 5 Years
                        3 years, 8 months ago

                        Had no idea it was only your second season as you come across in all your posts as someone who has been following the league for years especially with your insight into the players .So well impress with the information you pass onto us all.
                        Many thanks

                        1. ReindeerHotdog
                          • 3 Years
                          3 years, 8 months ago

                          Aha thank you.
                          I hope that's a good thing more than anything.
                          I've always been interested in that side of the game so I jumped at the chance to be more involved when it came to writing about it.
                          I love Norwegian football. That's what it boils down to.
                          I know the quality is sometimes lacking but it's a great league with football played for scoring goals.
                          And I think this side of FFS has more players interested in stats, analysis and discussion than the other.
                          If what we write about is useful, that's great.

                          1. Men in green tights
                            • 5 Years
                            3 years, 8 months ago

                            Very useful ,
                            Especially beginning of season about the BG players and others gave me a good start and then advice on which players were playing well which helped with transfers .Also like the punt shouts of yours as I have done one of them for this week with bershia for Bamba.
                            Cheers

              • Just-In-Cider
                • 5 Years
                3 years, 8 months ago

                Ended up with 84 points after playing my WC, Pellegrino (C)
                Went from OR 247-95
                Hope to keep climbing upwards

                1. Men in green tights
                  • 5 Years
                  3 years, 8 months ago

                  Nice game week for you

                2. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 9 Years
                  3 years, 8 months ago

                  Nailed it! Well played!

              • Sandstorm
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                3 years, 8 months ago

                Thanks El Puqi for the nice list of defenders! Ended up doing Ruud -> Thomassen, his heatmap was tasty indeed.

                1. El Puqi
                  • 4 Years
                  3 years, 8 months ago

                  Glad if it was helpful! Also, I’d like to add Aasbak/Sormo to that list.

                  1. El Puqi
                    • 4 Years
                    3 years, 8 months ago

                    Oh I had Aasbak there already, my bad.

                    Eggen Hedenstad is a brilliant option as well.

              • J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                3 years, 8 months ago

                Going for it this week, Attack attack is live!

                Myhra

                Gregerson, Kitolano, Kristiansen

                Pelle, Hauge, Zinc, Koomson

                Bamba, Junker, Borven

                Hopefully it pays off, we’ll see.....

                1. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 9 Years
                  3 years, 8 months ago

                  Hove, Ulvestad and Daland as subs.

                  1. ReindeerHotdog
                    • 3 Years
                    3 years, 8 months ago

                    Hove is such a lovely player to have as a sub. Another 5.5m mid I like the look of is Hoff. When Odd recover from their loss of Borven he could seriously be someone that's almost necessary to have in your team. (Although I hate to assume there's any one essential player).

                    Bamba, Junker and Borven have brilliant fixtures. I have Berisha rather than Bamba but both have nice games. Bamba obviously with the easier one. Just depends how Brann respond to that humiliation. I'd expect them to be fine though.

                    It's as good as a week as any barring any potential DGWs in which you think your players will get two bites at the cherry in favourable fixtures.

                    And yeah, all round nice team. I like it. Good luck bud.

                2. El Puqi
                  • 4 Years
                  3 years, 8 months ago

                  My guy, Attack! Attack! live as well. Altough I own Berisha instead of Bamba.

                  Lets hope it pays off!

                  1. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 9 Years
                    3 years, 8 months ago

                    Fixtures are so inviting aren’t they !

                    Good luck mate, hopefully it works out...

                    1. El Puqi
                      • 4 Years
                      3 years, 8 months ago

                      Yeah so good, especially for Borven & Junker. Bamba too tbf!

                      1. Men in green tights
                        • 5 Years
                        3 years, 8 months ago

                        On this chip does that mean your Captain pick gets 4 times as many points or is it a case of just double as the chip is being used.
                        Cheers

                        1. Mince n Tatties
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 10 Years
                          3 years, 8 months ago

                          All 3 attackers get double points - you don’t get a stand alone captain when playing this chip.

                          1. Men in green tights
                            • 5 Years
                            3 years, 8 months ago

                            Thanks

                  2. Paul Psychic Octopus
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 13 Years
                    3 years, 8 months ago

                    Playing 3-5-2 each week, with Ostensen on the bench, so Attack, Attack! will have to wait until I am prepared to undertake major surgery and do 2FTs involving a pricey midfielder (and lose TV as a result).

                    Can't think of any sub-8.0m forwards anyone would be excited about using the Attack, Attack! chip on.

                    1. ReindeerHotdog
                      • 3 Years
                      3 years, 8 months ago

                      That's a really good point. Who knows what is the best way to use that chip? Do you plan weeks if not months in advance, or do you just naturally gravitate towards a good week to play when you have 3 forwards?

                      Someone suggested this week and I'm massively tempted. I'm not too sure about DGWs. Every time I've tried to plan my GW around them in FPL it ends horribly. I'm not too sure that's the best mentality to adopt.

                      I have Borven(SiF), Berisha(ODD) and Junker(aafk) so this week may not be a bad week to use it at all.

                      I'm still tossing and turning regarding bringing Zachariassen in for a hit (Sandberg to make way). I think Rosenborg will start to turn a corner and they have some lovely fixtures coming up for them to be given the chance to get into a groove.

                      That being said, Molde have let in 6 goals in their last 4, notably conceding twice away to Start. You would say Haugesund are a much better side than Start with players more capable of scoring goals. Haugesund have only scored one more goal than Start but still, they have a better shots to goal conversion rate (10.91% - 9.09%) and almost twice the amount of shots they have are on target compared to Start (34.55% - 19.48%).

                      It's easy to make a comparison such as that and arrive at the conclusion that "because of a, then b is more likely to happen, therefore I will assume that it will and thus either decide to make a sub/leave it as it is." That's my main dilemma - I have it in my head that Start shouldn't have scored twice but they did so Haugesund should score and Sandberg is most likely to. Flip it around and it may just be that "Start shouldn't have scored but did; Haugesund shouldn't and won't."

                      And it's the same thing for Attack! Attack! You can plan and use stats all you like. You can come up with the best time to use these chips and best subs to fit a pattern you've designed to navigate through each gameweek and then an anomaly or even just a slight variable happens and that plan looks to be a waste of effort.

                      But yes, obviously don't use Attack! Attack! when you only have 2 forwards aha.

                3. Onz
                  • 6 Years
                  3 years, 8 months ago

                  Saving my first chip for GW12 and will bring in a Start forward ( Bringaker maybe ?) if I play the Attack Attack. It may be better to save that as I am hoping the season extends into the winter and we get a few weather cancellations and DGW's as a result. The rich uncle or attack chips will be best then. Two captains may be better as you say in a single GW but I will hold foe now. If my OR is good enough without using it until closer to the season end I can really go hard then and get a decent OR. On the other hand if I fall too far in OR before then I will play it early just to maintain interest and artificial boost my OR. Good luck and have fun, that is the most important motivation.

                  1. Onz
                    • 6 Years
                    3 years, 8 months ago

                    PS it looks like the cup may be cancelled so no blanks and doubles due to that.

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