This article examines the records of teams that have been promoted from the Championship to the Premier League since 2010. This reveals how many of them struggled to make a successful transition from the second tier to the top-flight, with clean sheets and goals far tougher to come by. I will also look at some of the players and teams who bucked the trend to become great sources of Fantasy points.
A Difficult Transition
To put that rough ride into perspective here’s a summary of some analysis I carried out looking at the averages for goals scored, goals conceded and clean sheets for the 30 teams promoted in 2010-2019. While they scored 76 goals on average as Championship teams, that figure dropped to just 40 in the Premier League.
For goals conceded their defences also struggled in the top flight. While they let in 44 goals on average in the Championship, that tally rose to 61 among England’s elite. This made clean sheets harder to come by with their average dropping from 18 to 8 post-promotion.
This means that anyone expecting the three sides promoted in 2020 (Leeds United, West Brom and Fulham) to get as many goals and clean sheets in the Premier League as they did in the Championship could be in for a shock.
PROMOTION SUCCESSES
Players
But it’s not all bad news. There have been some notable high performers from the promoted sides, particularly among the budget picks, so it may pay to invest in a few of the players coming up to the Premier League.
The following 23 players from the 30 newly promoted teams all scored at least 100 FPL points at 4.0 points per game (ppg) or better in the season after securing promotion:
2010-11: Charlie Adam (Blackpool) 192 at 5.5ppg; Andy Carroll (Newcastle -> Liverpool) 135 at 5.2ppg; Kevin Nolan (Newcastle) 140 at 4.7ppg; Joey Barton (Newcastle) 131 at 4.1ppg; DJ Campbell (Blackpool) 138 at 4.1ppg.
2011-12: Michel Vorm (Swansea) 158 at 4.3ppg; Bobby Zamora (QPR) 119 at 4.1ppg; Scott Sinclair (Swansea) 151 at 4.0ppg.
2012-13: Rickie Lambert (Southampton) 187 at 4.9ppg; Kevin Nolan (West Ham) 149 at 4.3ppg.
2013-14: None.
2014-15: Charlie Austin (QPR) 176 at 5.0ppg; Danny Ings (Burnley) 139 at 4.0ppg.
2015-16: Odeon Ighalo (Watford) 175 at 4.7ppg; Troy Deeney (Watford) 166 at 4.4ppg; Heurelho Gomes (Watford) 157 at 4.1ppg.
2016-17: Tom Heaton (Burnley) 149 at 4.3ppg.
2017-18: Pascal Gross (Brighton) 164 at 4.3ppg.
2018-19: Raul Jimenez (Wolves) 181 at 4.8ppg; Diogo Jota (Wolves) 139 at 4.2ppg; Neil Etheridge (Cardiff) 154 at 4.1ppg.
2019-20: Dean Henderson (Sheffield United) 160 at 4.4ppg; John Lundstram (Sheffield United) 144 at 4.2ppg; Jack Grealish (Aston Villa) 149 at 4.1ppg.
Securing more than 5.0 ppg is rare though, with only Austin in 2014/15 and Adam and Carroll in 2010/11 achieving this.
John Lundstram is the only ‘defender’ in this list. Few defenders from newly promoted teams score enough points to play them every week, but they can still be useful as enablers or in cheap rotations.
Teams
Previous articles in 2015-2019 took a detailed look at the most successful promotion teams for Fantasy managers since 2010. Here I’ll highlight some key success stories.
The 2010/11 season proved an excellent time for promoted sides in terms of goals. Newcastle and West Brom both scored an impressive 56 goals in their first season back in the top flight. Blackpool too did well, scoring in all but one of their home matches.
Swansea proved the stars of the new Premier League class of 2011/12. They were promoted with an impressive defensive record at home, keeping 14 home clean sheets and only conceding 11 home goals. They also maintained their defensive form in the Premier League, keeping 14 clean sheets (nine of which were at home) and only conceding 18 home goals. Michel Vorm proved a shrewd purchase that year.
Southampton‘s strong attack on the road in the Championship was also maintained in the Premier League, where they scored in all but five of their away matches in 2012/13.
A change of manager proved pivotal to Crystal Palace who were back in the Premier League in 2013/14. After switching from Ian Holloway to Tony Pulis they ended the season conceding fewer goals in the Premier League (47) than in the Championship (62). Only two newly promoted sides have achieved this feat since 2010.
Huddersfield had been promoted in 2017 with a negative goal difference (-2) as a result of their policy of throwing caution to the winds whenever they went behind but being satisfied with narrow victories when ahead. Miraculously, they managed to avoid immediate relegation. Like Crystal Palace, they achieved this by tightening their defence, only conceding the same number of goals in the Premier League as they had done in the Championship (58).
In 2020, Sheffield United became the second newly-promoted side to concede fewer goals in the Premier League (39) than they had done in the Championship (42).
PROMOTION FAILURES
Players
While Adam, Carroll and Austin all succeeded in both the Championship and Premier League, the road to promotion is littered with poorly performing casualties. Here are some of the biggest flops.
Adel Taarabt (QPR 2011): 19 goals in Championship, just 2 in Premier League.
Glenn Murray (Crystal Palace 2013): 30 goals in Championship, only 1 in Premier League.
Sam Vokes (Burnley 2014): 20 goals in Championship, none in the Premier League.
Jordan Rhodes (Middlesbrough 2016): 16 goals in Championship, none in Premier League.
The failure by Adel Taarabt was not entirely unexpected, since his previous record in the Premier League was not great. He had played 6 matches but failed to score for Spurs in 2007/8 and only played one match for them in 2008/9 before being loaned out to Championship side QPR in March 2009.
The reason for Glenn Murray’s lack of goals in 2013/14 was quite different though. He had been out injured since the end of the 2012/13 season and was not fit to play till February 2014, after which he scored 1 goal in 14 matches. He was then sent on loan to Reading for the first half of the 2014/15 season, after which he returned to Palace and scored 7 goals in 17 matches in the remainder of the season. He returned to the Premier League with Brighton in 2017/18, this time scoring 12 Premier League goals.
Sam Vokes scored no goals in 26 matches in his first 4 Premier League seasons, but then redeemed himself by scoring 10 for Burnley in 2016/17.
Jordan Rhodes had been a prolific goal-scorer in the Championship, but failed to score in 6 Premier League games and was then sent out on loan to Sheffield Wednesday.
13 of the 29 players who had been among the ten highest scorers of the season in the Championship in 2010-19 did, however, manage to score 10 or more goals in the Premier League the following season.
The 29 averaged 20.0 goals in gaining promotion from the Championship, but only 8.0 in the next season’s Premier League.
15 of the 29 were new to the Premier League, averaging 9.1 goals each in their first Premier League season.
The other 14 (most of whom had not been that successful when previously playing in the Premier League) only averaged 6.9, so on average, the Premier League newcomers performed about 32% better than the rest.
Teams
The list of failures is far longer as my earlier articles showed. Here are some of the poorest performers since 2010:
The slide in defensive statistics was particularly potent for QPR in 2010/11, as their goals conceded tally more than doubled after promotion and the number of clean sheets fell from 22 in the Championship to just 7. In the same season, Norwich failed to keep a single clean sheet on the road, as did Reading in 2012/13.
Scoring on the road also proved tricky for West Ham, who saw their away goal tally drop from 40 to just 11 after securing promotion in 2011/12. Whether home or away Cardiff still struggled to score in the 2013/14 season, where they failed to find the net on a staggering 19 occasions.
Burnley in 2014/15 also proved poor in attack, scoring a mere 28 times and just 14 times in front of their home fans. In 2015/16, Norwich failed to score on 16 occasions and Watford on 14.
All three promoted teams in 2016/17 struggled in their away matches, winning only one away match each. Burnley’s strong home form enabled them to avoid relegation, but Middlesbrough could only score a pathetic 27 goals and only won 5 matches, whilst Hull’s defence, which had only conceded 35 goals and kept 20 clean sheets in the Championship, was completely outclassed in the Premier League, conceding 80 goals.
Fulham in 2018/19 were also outclassed, scoring only 32 goals compared to 79 in the Championship and conceding a whopping 81.
But the biggest disaster was by Norwich (again). In the 2018/19 Championship, they had scored 93 goals and scored in all but 3 matches, but in the 2019/20 Premier League they scored only 26 goals, failing to score in 20 matches, and not winning a single away game.
CLUBS PROMOTED IN 2019
Norwich scored 93 goals in winning the 2018-19 Championship, scoring in all but 3 matches and thus equalling the record set by Leicester in 2014 – but they also conceded 57 goals, so we expected plenty of goals at both ends of the pitch. Their 2019-20 Premier League season was a disaster though. They only scored 26, the lowest of any team in this survey and by far the biggest deterioration too. They failed to score in 20 matches, which was also by far the biggest deterioration. And they were also the first team in this survey not to win a single away game, drawing 3 and losing the other 16. Star player: Teemu Pukki.
Sheffield United were runners-up, their defence and attack both being about average for a team winning promotion. But in the 2019-20 Premier League season their defence was outstanding, conceding only 39 goals, the lowest number in this survey. They were only the second team in this survey to concede fewer goals in the Premier League (39) than they had the previous season in the Championship (42). The other team to achieve this was Tony Pulis’s Crystal Palace in 2013-14. Star player: Dean Henderson.
Aston Villa had a strong attack that scored in all but 5 matches, only one of which was at home. Their defence over the season was very weak, conceding 61 goals, 36 of them at home, and only keeping 12 clean sheets. However, Dean Smith replaced Steve Bruce as manager after 12 matches and then strengthened the defence further by bringing in Mings for the last 17 matches, with the result that their defensive record in away matches after this was now outstanding. Their home defence also improved in the 2019-20 Premier League, only conceding 30 goals, but their away defence got worse, conceding 37 and not keeping any away clean sheets. Star player: Jack Grealish.
Jamal Lewis, Max Aarons and Teemu Pukki of Norwich, Oliver Norwood and Billy Sharp of Sheffield United and Jack Grealish and Tammy Abraham of Aston Villa had all been in the 2018/19 PFA Championship Team of the Season.
Teemu Pukki (Norwich) with 29 goals, Tammy Abraham (Aston Villa) with 24 and Billy Sharp (Sheffield United) with 23 had all been among the top ten scorers in the Championship.
Pukki was a newcomer to the Premier League; Abraham has been there twice before, scoring 5 goals in 34 matches in 2017/18, and Sharp once before, scoring no goals in 2 matches in 2012/13 before going out on loan.
Pukki scored 11 goals in the 2019/20 Premier League, Abraham returned to Chelsea and scored 15, and Sharp scored 3.
CLUBS PROMOTED IN 2020
Here I’ll take a look at the three teams promoted in 2019. As we have seen, Championship statistics can often be a poor indicator of Premier League success. Nevertheless, let’s have a look at how they fared on their road to promotion.
Leeds United won the 2019-20 Championship with a strong defence that kept 22 clean sheets but only an average attack; they scored more goals in away matches (40) than they did at home (39). Star player: Luke Ayling.
West Brom were runners-up. Their attack was also only average, while their defence was weak at home, where they conceded 27 goals and only kept 5 clean sheets, but stronger in away matches, where they only conceded 19 goals and kept 9 clean sheets. Star player: Matheus Pereira.
Fulham were below average for a newly promoted team and will need to strengthen if they are not to go straight back down. Star player: Aleksandar Mitrovic.
The PFA awards including the Championship Team of the Year for 2019/20 should have been announced in April but were cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Aleksandar Mitrovic (Fulham) with 26 goals and Patrick Bamford (Leeds United) with 16 were both among the top ten scorers in the Championship.
This will be Mitrovic’s 3rd Premier League season. He scored 9 goals in 34 matches for Newcastle in 2015/16 and 11 in 37 for Fulham in 2018/19.
It will also be Bamford’s 3rd season in the Premier League. He only scored 1 goal in 27 Premier League appearances for Crystal Palace, Burnley and Middlesbrough.
CONCLUSION
A comparison of the average promoted team’s performances in the Championship and Premier League should act as a wake-up call for anyone expecting players to be as successful in the Premier League as they were in the Championship.
Investment in successful Championship strikers should be treated with caution. Fewer than half of the players who have been among the ten leading scorers in the Championship reach double figures in the Premier League the next season, and the deterioration in their individual performance can often be greater than that of their team. In most cases, however, successful Championship strikers who are new to the Premier League tend to do a little better than those have been there before without great success.
Clean sheets are also harder to come by, but good goalkeepers from promoted sides can expect to see a significant increase in save points.
tl;dr: Most newly promoted teams and individual players will find life far more difficult in the Premier League than it was in the Championship, so don’t set your expectations too high!
All earlier articles on this topic from previous seasons can be found below.
2010-15 | 2010-16 | 2010-17 | 2010-18 | 2010-19
RedLightning.
3 years, 9 months ago
Thank you for this RL, these are always excellent - can't see myself being that interested in the teams coming up, purely depends on FPL doing us a favour and pricing some of these players very, very kindly!