Newly Promoted Teams 2010-2018

This article examines the records of teams that have been promoted from the Championship to the Premier League since 2010 to assess how well they make the transition to the top flight.

For many teams a rude awakening awaits, as they find clean sheets and goals harder to come by.

But for some players adapting to the Premier League is made to look easy, as they buck the trend to become a great source of Fantasy points.

A Difficult Transition

To put the rough ride many teams face into perspective here’s a summary of some analysis I carried out looking at the averages for goals scored, goals conceded and clean sheets for the 24 teams promoted in 2010-2017. 

While they scored 77 goals on average as Championship teams, that figure dropped to just 42 in the Premier League.

For goals conceded their defences also struggled in the top flight. While they let in 44 goals on average in the Championship, that tally rose to 61 among England’s elite. This made clean sheets harder to come by with their average dropping from 18 to eight post-promotion.

This means that anyone expecting the three sides promoted in 2018 (Wolverhampton, Cardiff and Fulham) to get as many goals and clean sheets in the Premier League as they did in the Championship could be in for a shock.

Promotion Success Stories – Players

But it’s not all bad news. There have been some notable high performers from the promoted sides, particularly among the budget picks, so it does pay to invest in a good sprinkling of players from those coming up to the Premier League.

Here are some notable players who did well in the season after their team secured promotion, scoring at least 100 FPL points at 3.5 points per game (ppg) or better.

2010-2011

Charlie Adam (Blackpool) 192 at 5.5ppg

Andy Carroll (Newcastle and Liverpool) 135 at 5.2ppg

Kevin Nolan (Newcastle) 140 at 4.7ppg

Joey Barton (Newcastle) 131 at 4.1ppg

DJ Campbell (Blackpool) 138 at 4.1ppg

Chris Brunt (West Brom) 130 at 3.8ppg

2011-2012

Michel Vorm (Swansea) 158 at 4.3ppg

Bobby Zamora (QPR) 119 at 4.1ppg

Scott Sinclair (Swansea) 151 at 4.0ppg

Nathan Dyer (Swansea) 122 at 3.6ppg

2012-2013

Rickie Lambert (Southampton) 187 at 4.9ppg

Kevin Nolan (West Ham) 149 at 4.3ppg

Jussi Jaaskelainen (West Ham) 144 at 3.8ppg

Joey O’Brien (West Ham) 123 at 3.7ppg

2013-2014

Julian Speroni (Crystal Palace) 144 at 3.9ppg

Jason Puncheon (Crystal Palace) 131 at 3.9ppg

2014-2015

Charlie Austin (QPR) 176 at 5.0ppg

Danny Ings (Burnley) 139 at 4.0ppg

Tom Heaton (Burnley) 150 at 3.9ppg

Leroy Fer (QPR) 113 at 3.9ppg

Jamie Vardy (Leicester) 120 at 3.5ppg

2015-2016

Odion Ighalo (Watford) 175 at 4.7ppg

Troy Deeney (Watford) 166 at 4.4ppg

Heurelho Gomes (Watford) 157 at 4.1ppg

Wes Hoolahan (Norwich) 113 at 3.8ppg

Charlie Daniels (Bournemouth) 130 at 3.5ppg

2016-2017

Tom Heaton (Burnley) 149 at 4.3ppg

Alvaro Negredo (Middlesbrough) 130 at 3.6ppg

Victor Valdes (Middlesbrough) 102 at 3.6ppg

2017-2018

Pascal Gross (Brighton) 164 at 4.3ppg

Matthew Ryan (Brighton) 146 at 3.8ppg

Jonas Lossl (Huddersfield) 135 at 3.6ppg

Jamaal Lascelles (Newcastle) 116 at 3.5ppg

Securing more than 5.0 ppg is rare though, with only Austin in 2014/15 and Adam and Carroll in 2010/11 achieving this. Of these, Austin actually improved his goal-scoring tally from 17 to 18. Adam scored 16 in the Championship promotion season and an impressive 12 in the Premier League, while Carroll notched 11 in 19 matches, before injury and an ill-fated transfer to Liverpool scuppered his season. This measures up well compared to his 17 goals for Newcastle in the Championship the season before.

The above list includes nine goalkeepers, 11 midfielders and 10 forwards but only three defenders. (I may have overlooked a few other defenders from the earlier seasons).

Few defenders from newly promoted teams are likely to score enough points to justify playing them every week, but they may still be useful as enablers or in rotations.

Promotion Success Stories – Teams

Previous articles in 2015, 2016 and 2017 take a detailed look at the most successful promotion teams for Fantasy managers since 2010. Here I’ll highlight some key success stories.

The 2010/11 season proved an excellent time for promoted sides in terms of goals. Newcastle and West Brom both scored an impressive 56 goals in their first season back in the top flight. Blackpool too did well, scoring in all but one of their home matches.

Swansea proved the stars of the new Premier League class of 2011/12. They were promoted with an impressive defensive record at home, keeping 14 home clean sheets and only conceding 11 home goals. They also maintained their defensive form in the Premier League, keeping 14 clean sheets (nine of which were at home) and only conceding 18 home goals. Michel Vorm proved a shrewd purchase that year.

Southampton‘s strong attack on the road in the Championship was also maintained in the Premier League, where they scored in all but five of their away matches in 2012/13.

A change of manager proved pivotal to Crystal Palace who were back in the Premier League in 2013/14. After switching from Ian Holloway to Tony Pulis they ended the season conceding fewer goals in the Premier League (47) than in the Championship (62). They remain the only promoted side to achieve this feat since 2010. They also managed to keep 12 clean sheets in the Premier League compared with 11 in the Championship.

Huddersfield had been promoted in 2017 with a negative goal difference (-2) as a result of their policy of throwing caution to the winds whenever they went behind but being satisfied with narrow victories when ahead. Miraculously, they managed to retain their Premier League status and avoid their expected immediate relegation. Like Crystal Palace, they achieved this by tightening their defence, only conceding the same number of goals in the Premier League as they had  in the Championship (58).

Promotion Flops – Players

While Carroll and Austin succeeded in both the Championship and Premier League, the road to promotion is littered with poorly performing casualties who failed to take strong form into the top flight the following season.

Here are some of the biggest flops:

Adel Taarabt (QPR 2011): 19 goals in Championship, just two in Premier League.

Glenn Murray (Crystal Palace 2013): 30 goals in Championship, only 1 in Premier League.

Sam Vokes (Burnley 2014): 20 goals in Championship, none in the Premier League.

Jordan Rhodes (Middlesbrough 2016): 16 goals in Championship, none in Premier League.

Taarabt’s troubles  were not entirely unexpected, as his previous record in the Premier League was also not great. He played six times for Tottenham in 2007/8 without a goal, and only played one match for them in 2008/9 before being loaned out to Championship side QPR in March 2009.

The reason for Murray’s lack of goals in 2013/14 was quite different though. He had been out injured since the end of the 2012/13 season and was not fit to play till February 2014, after which he scored one goal in 14 matches. He was then sent on loan to Reading for the first half of the 2014/15 season, after which he returned to Palace and scored seven goals in 17 matches in the remainder of the season. He returned to the Premier League with Brighton in 2017/18, this time scoring  12 Premier League goals.

Vokes scored no goals in 26 matches in his first four Premier League seasons, but then redeemed himself by scoring 10 for Burnley in 2016/17.

Rhodes had been a prolific goal-scorer in the Championship, but failed to score in six Premier League games and was then sent out on loan to Sheffield Wednesday.

It is worth mentioning that 11 of the 24 players who had been among the ten highest scorers of the season in the Championship in 2010-17 did, however, manage to score 10 or more goals in the Premier League the following season. These 24 averaged 19.6 goals in gaining promotion from the Championship, but only 8.0 in the next season’s Premier League.

Furthermore, 12 of the 24 were new to the Premier League, averaging 9.5 goals each in their first Premier League season.

The other 12 (most of whom had not been that successful when previously playing in the Premier League) only averaged 6.5, so the Premier League newcomers performed about 46% better than the others on average.

Promotion Flops – Teams

The list of failures is far longer as my earlier articles showed.

Here are some of the poorest performers since 2010:

The slide in defensive statistics was particularly potent for QPR in 2010/11, as their goals conceded tally more than doubled after promotion and the number of clean sheets fell from 22 in the Championship to just seven. In the same season Norwich failed to keep a single clean sheet on the road, as did Reading in 2012/13.

Scoring on the road also proved tricky for West Ham, who saw their away goal tally drop from 40 to just 11 after securing promotion in 2011/12. Whether home or away Cardiff still struggled to score in the 2013/14 season, where they failed to find the net on a staggering 19 occasions.

Burnley in 2014/15 also proved poor in attack, scoring a mere 28 times and on just 14 occasions in front of their home fans. In 2015/16, Norwich failed to score on 16 occasions and Watford on 14.

All three promoted teams in 2016/17 struggled in their away matches, winning only one away match each. Burnley’s strong home form enabled them to avoid relegation, but Middlesbrough could only score a pathetic 27 goals and won just five matches, whilst Hull’s defence, which had only conceded 35 goals and kept 20 clean sheets in the Championship, was completely outclassed in the Premier League as they conceded a whopping 80 goals.

Clubs promoted in 2017

Newcastle maintained their Championship form in the 2017/18 Premier League, especially in their home matches which saw fewer goals scored and conceded than in the Championship. Their 17 goals conceded at home was the least number conceded by any newly promoted team in this study.

Brighton tightened up their away defence in the 2017/18 Premier League, and their five away clean sheets were a joint best for newly promoted teams.

Huddersfield miraculously retained their Premier League status by tightening up their defence and only conceding the same number of goals as they had in the Championship – the biggest defensive improvement since Tony Pulis’s Crystal Palace in 2013. This was vital to their survival given they failed to score in 21 matches.

Jamaal Lascelles, Jonjo Shelvey and Dwight Gayle (Newcastle), David Stockdale, Bruno Saltor, Lewis Dunk and Anthony Knockaert (Brighton) and Aaron Mooy (Huddersfield) had all been in the PFA Championship Team of the Season for 2016/17.

Gayle (23 goals in the Championship, six in his fourth Premier league season), Murray (Brighton, 23 goals in the Championship, 12 in his fourth Premier League season) and Knockaert (15 goals n the Championship, three in his second Premier League season) had all been among the top ten scorers in the Championship in 2016/17

Clubs promoted in 2018

Here I’ll take a look at the three teams promoted in 2018. As we have seen, Championship statistics can often be a poor indicator of Premier League success. Nevertheless let’s have a look at how they fared on their road to promotion.

Wolves won the 2017-18 Championship with a team that was strong in both attack and defence, keeping an impressive 24 clean sheets (12 at home and also 12 away). Star player: Ruben Neves (midfielder).

Cardiff were runners-up, thanks mainly to their strong defence. Star player: Sol Bamba (defender).

Fulham had a season of two halves. In their first 23 matches they won eight, drew eight and lost seven, but in the second half they won 17, drew five and lost just once. They scored almost as many goals in away matches (39) as they did at home (40). Star player: Ryan Sessegnon (left-back/left winger).

Diogo Jota (Wolves) with 17 goals and Sessegnon (Fulham) with 16 were both among the top ten scorers in the Championship – both will be newcomers to the Premier League.”

Conclusion

A comparison of the average promoted team’s performances in the Championship and Premier League should act as a wake-up call to anyone expecting players to be as successful in the Premier League as they were in the Championship.

Investment in successful Championship strikers should be treated with caution. Only about half of the players who had been among the ten leading scorers in the Championship will reach double figures in the Premier League. The deterioration in their individual performance may be far greater than that of their team, or it may be a cause of their team’s deterioration. In most cases, however, successful Championship strikers who are new to the Premier League tend to do better than those have been there before without great success.

Clean sheets are also harder to come by, but good goalkeepers from promoted sides can expect to see a significant increase in save points.

Goalkeeper John Ruddy, defender Willy Boly and Neves of Wolves, Bamba of Cardiff, and Sessegnon, defender Ryan Fredericks and midfielder Tom Cairny of Fulham were all in the 2017/18 PFA Championship Team of the Season, but history suggests that they won’t all be successes in the Premier League.