I want to start the article on this strategy by saying I am not a new player to Fantasy Premier League, but I am always looking for a new tactic, something else to spice up the season.
My best OR was 15,133 in 2013/14 but since then I haven’t really enjoyed it. I’ve been too stressed out in the first 10 weeks by the pressures of not being able to have all of the good players and not instantly being in the top 20K that I’d quit by Xmas, leaving my sad, hit ridden team to meander towards the finish line through a forest of red arrows.
Last season was really bad (I was so furious when any player I didn’t have scored points that I took out a 20+ point hit rage on two occasions) and I changed my strategy almost daily to the point of obsession that I swore I wouldn’t play again this season.
Yet here we are.
When the abundance of premium midfielders was announced I quickly set up a draft that included the most expensive midfield ever assembled. But, I soon realised that I couldn’t have all of these players – not just because my squad needed balance, but because it needed 15 players in it. But, I knew that I’d curse (and likely rage transfer) when a premium midfielder scored highly in a game and a thought popped into my head, what if I could have all the premium midfielders and at the same time not beat myself up because I was sticking to a strategy?
So, I devised The Aggressive Premium Transfer Strategy – TAPTS. It’s a strategy that uses fixture judgement more than stats and form, but you could apply stats and form to it (and probably be more successful than I will be). I just prefer to play the game based on my own eye test and targeting weak teams, but TAPTS is so flexible, you can play it in lots of ways.
Firstly, a warning. THIS IS NOT FOR THE FAINT HEARTED. It goes against most of the FPL principles that many teach and learn from this very website and others like it. However, it COULD be very rewarding and you have an excellent get-out clause at any time with the Wildcard. My game plan is not to use the Wildcard until GW 16 to set me up for the blank/DGW of GW18/19 but it’s a great option to have up my sleeve.
The tactic is designed to maximise the scoring I get from my premium midfielders ONLY, rather than any marginal gains from lower-valued players. To do that, I am going to pick the best two premium midfielders based on their fixtures that week and make sure I have them both by only using my free transfer to move a premium midfielder in and out, with no exceptions. It also means I won’t have to take any hits to get them in.
To set up a solid base for this you need to select 13 players and keep £25.0m in the bank – this covers any 2 midfielders with £1.0m ITB for any price changes. These 13 players should almost all be nailed on starters for their team and provide a steady flow of points. I have divided up the money as follows:
2 GK – £8.5m
5 DF – £27.5M
3 MF – £22M (With 2 free spaces)
3 ST – £17M
Leftover – £25M
But, you can spread the money however you like across the positions where ever you see good value. Just make sure your selections WILL start and provide a steady flow of points. The cheapest guaranteed value starter in each position is a good place to start – I’ve gone with Luke Ayling (£4.5m), Tomas Soucek (£5.0m) & Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.0m) as they’ll start every week. I’ve also got a Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) and Andrew Robertson (£7.0m) double up at the back as I thought they’d give me more value than any other £7.5m/£7.0m player. Then, I favour Chris Wood up front as the best long term value £6.5m striker, but again, you can choose whoever you want.
Out of the 13, one player can be bench fodder but try and have at least one of your bench players, if not two, as a regular starter who can get some points in case of injuries and suspensions so you don’t have to take a hit. My bench currently has one player that will play – a £5.5m midfielder (who I can rotate in and out of my squad), one that could play – a £4.0m defender and one that probably won’t play – a £4.5m striker (If Rhian Brewster goes on loan to a Prem club then he is an excellent option here, but I want to save my last Liverpool space for Mohamed Salah (£12.0m) or Sadio Mane (£12.0m)). The point is to have cover to save you taking a hit for a 1/2 week absence. Longer absences may require you to take a hit, but hopefully, you won’t need to. I’m also set up to play 4-4-2 so that if a defender doesn’t play my midfielder can come in.
In the 13, choose one premium player that you’d like to lock into your side for the whole season, for me it’s Kevin De Bruyne (£11.5m), but maybe you’re Team Fernandes or Team Salah or Team Werner – Strikers aren’t included in this rotation, so if you really want a striker, get them in the 13.
Make sure you choose these 13 players wisely as they are locked into your team FOREVER (Well, until you bottle it and play your Wildcard in week 2).
Now, the fun part: I have identified the teams with premium midfielders that I believe will get me the most points throughout the season – the beauty of this is that you can add or remove teams to suit your personal preference, but for me currently it’s: Arsenal (Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang), Liverpool (Salah, Mane), Manchester City (KDB, Raheem Sterling), Manchester United (Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford), Chelsea (Christian Pulisic, Hakim Ziyech, Kai Havertz?). These teams for me have the midfielders who have the potential to score big points in a single game week.
Then, I went through the fixtures up until GW16 (the wildcard deadline) and identified which two of these teams had the most favourable fixtures in those weeks – For this, I mostly targeted sides lower down in the division that I personally think are going to be poor this season. This can and probably will evolve as the season goes on but for now, the teams I’m targeting are; Brighton, Aston Villa, Fulham, WBA, West Ham, Newcastle, Crystal Palace. With that in mind, the list of most favourable fixtures for me to target are:
GW 1 – ARSENAL (Ful A) / CHELSEA (Bri A)
GW 2 – ARSENAL (Wha H) / MAN U (Cry H)
GW 3 – MAN U (Bri A) / CHELSEA (Wba A)
GW 4 – LIVERPOOL (Avi A) / CHELSEA (Cry H)
GW 5 – CHELSEA (Sou H) / MAN U (New A)
GW 6 – MAN CITY (Wha A)*
GW 7 – LIVERPOOL (Wha H)*
GW 8 – ARSENAL (Avi H)*
GW 9 – MAN U (WBA H) / CHELSEA (New A)
GW 10 – LIVERPOOL (Bri A) / MAN CITY (Bur H)**
GW 11 – MAN CITY (Ful H) / MAN U (Wha A)
GW 12 – LIVERPOOL (Ful A)*
GW 13 – MAN CITY (Wba H)*
GW 14 – LIVERPOOL (Cry A) / CHELSEA (Wha H)
GW 15 – LIVERPOOL (Wba H) / MAN CITY (New H)
*Only one I’m really keen on identified
**Burnley’s normally excellent defence included here as historically City have hammered them.
Then, I worked out a transfer strategy of which premium midfielder to keep and which to transfer out in these game weeks – I’ve included one player from a team in each one, but it can easily be any premium midfielder from that team (i.e Pulisic could be Ziyech or Havertz). It might be crazy to say 2 weeks before the season starts but, these will be my transfers:
GW 1 – Start with Aubameyang and Ziyech
GW 2 – Transfer Ziyech to Rashford (still got Aubameyang)
GW 3 – Transfer Aubameyang to Pulisic (still got Rashford)
GW 4 – Transfer Rashford to Salah (still got Pulisic)
GW 5 – Transfer Salah to Fernandes (still got Pulisic)
GW 6 – Transfer Pulisic to Sterling (Still got Fernandes)
GW 7 – Transfer Sterling to Mane (still got Fernandes)
GW 8 – Transfer Mane to Aubameyang (still got Fernandes)
GW 9 – Transfer Aubameyang to Sterling (Still got Fernandes)
GW 10 – Transfer Fernandes to Salah (still got Sterling)
GW 11 – Transfer Salah to Rashford (still got Sterling)
GW 12 – Transfer Rashford to Mane (still got Sterling)
GW 13 – Either Keep Mane and Sterling or swap one for another Liv/Man C players***
GW 14 – Transfer Sterling to Pulisic (still got Salah)
GW 15 – Transfer Pulisic to Sterling (still got Salah)
***If you don’t use this to swap premium midfielders use the transfer on your other 13 players if you need to.
You can see that I do keep some premium midfielders for a run of 3/4 weeks some times, so make sure you choose the one you think will do best for all of those fixtures.
Selecting which midfielder from the team (e.g. Salah or Mane) will come in the week of the transfer still gives me choice and allows me to look at stats or form if I want. It also means I can move between players like Salah and Mane if I wanted to if one was horribly out of form.
If, at some stage, the original premium midfielder in the 13 that you chose is doing terribly and you want to keep one player that you’ve originally planned to transfer out, you do have the flexibility to swap them at any point. So, if KDB is out of form or injured for GW5, I can keep Salah in my team instead and transfer KDB out.
Now, this obviously relies on avoiding injuries and suspensions to your original 13 players, but if you have enough cover on your bench it could be very profitable. It might be that you want to Wildcard early so you know the cheaper players who are nailed on starters and offer good value, then employing this tactic. This could be something I do in the first few weeks if too many of my 13 players aren’t regulars, as I’ve said before do whatever works best for you.
If you want to TAPTS please do and do it your way, use stats, add more players (Son could feel aggrieved to have missed out on mine, but I’ve been let down way too many times by him), use other fixtures, target other teams (I didn’t target Leeds as I’m a Leeds fan and have an unwavering belief that we’ll be excellent this year).
Remember the point of this is to have all of the premium midfielders positively affect your season so you can enjoy each and every one of them, knowing that even if they score big and you don’t have them, you’ll have them in soon. No regrets.
That’s it for this year, I’m all set. Well, until I come up with an even better strategy tomorrow.
FPL_Polecat
3 years, 7 months agoLove some different thinking and different strategies!
I wonder if this relights the old form vs fixtures debate - whilst fixtures act as a multiplier to premium player's scores, should it be valued higher than form? You mention that you can adapt your transfers based on form, I just wonder where I personally would draw that line.
Really interesting idea though! Looking forward to seeing how it plays out, don't think I'm brave enough to try myself!