Pro Pundits - Simon

The House’s Money: Why maintaining a good start to the FPL season is so difficult

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times …it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.”

  • Charles Dickens, ‘A Tale of Two Cities’.

Dickens may not have been speaking specifically about the opening Gameweeks of an FPL season (we’ll never know for sure) but his words are, nonetheless, fairly appropriate. While it has, indeed, been a tale of two Gameweeks thus far, there will be some who have done far, far better than others.

I love the start of a new FPL campaign as much as the next Fantasy manager but, I have to admit, it’s also among the most challenging parts to navigate successfully. Not only are we operating with very little information, but many of us also have to deal with the fact that some mini-league rivals have, somehow, already opened up what might appear to be unassailable leads.

Of course, this is the part of the season where we regularly preach patience and encourage people to avoid panic-driven decisions that they might later regret. Phrases like ‘it’s a marathon, not a sprint’ are commonplace on FPL forums and we might also comfort ourselves with our vague childhood memories of a story about a race between a tortoise and a hare.

This article, however, will focus on why those people who have shot to the front probably won’t stay there, and why those chasing shouldn’t panic, yet.

The House Money Effect

Gamblers and investors, in particular, may be familiar with the ‘House Money Effect’, a cognitive bias first popularised by Nobel Prize-winning economist Richard Thaler. 

Essentially, the House Money Effect draws off the principles of ‘mental accounting’; the idea that we categorise money and expenditures into different accounts in our mind, and we evaluate outcomes in relation to these. 

So, for example, we might have mental accounts such as ‘beer money’, ‘college funds’ or ‘holiday money.’

The House Money Effect often occurs when we receive money in an atypical manner. For example; winning a bet, receiving a bonus or profiting from an investment. 

Behavioural psychologists have observed that people take far greater risks with such sums than they would with their savings or regular earnings. They also find that people also tend to be more generous with such windfalls than they might otherwise be.

The proposed reason for this phenomenon is that, psychologically, people don’t perceive these sums to really be their money, it goes into a completely different mental account to money earned in the normal way. It’s the casinos or ‘the house’s money’ and, thus, we tend to treat it that way. At best, we make more money from the risks we take with it. And at worst, we end up with our original stake, no better or worse off than we were before and, because we think we’ll be okay with either outcome, we’re inclined to treat it as fun money.

I would argue that, due to their windfall of FPL points, Fantasy managers who do very well in the opening few Gameweeks are substantially more at risk of succumbing to the House Money Effect than normal. 

This might translate into them spending some of those points via hits, making riskier transfers, making transfers when it might have been objectively more sensible to save them or simply being less rigorous in their selections, captaincy or transfer decisions. 

Now, this isn’t to say that high-flying managers simply got there by luck, much in same as an investor doesn’t profit entirely by luck, it’s simply stating that, due to this cognitive bias, the extra points they have scored may seem like ‘house money’ to them, and they’re likely to be more inclined to risk them as a result. 

Essentially; if they blow their lead, they’re no worse off than their competitors and this, mentally, becomes their baseline.

How Spurs and Everton's new signings fared in their FPL Gameweek 1 debuts 1

There is some evidence that may support this having already occurred too. Between Gameweeks 1 and 2, the average number of points spent on transfers via hits by FPL managers was 2.28 points overall but, among the Top 10k, this rose almost 20% to 2.72. 

Rationally-speaking, the Top 10k should have had less cause to make any transfers, let alone take hits, based on Gameweek 1 but, instead, they made more transfers and spent more points on them. 

The Top 10k also scored fewer gross points on average than the overall (53.27 vs 59.55). Naturally, in a single gameweek, this could simply be luck, but it could also be a result of less rigorous decision-making caused by the House Money Effect.

So, for those chasing, the key lessons from this are to not panic, to not make the same mistakes that the people above you probably will, and to take advantage of these mistakes to close the gap. That means avoiding hits, risky captaincies and panic moves like Wildcarding unnecessarily. 

It is worth bearing in mind that many of those who held firm with their Gameweek 1 squad profited as a result in Gameweek 2. As Guns ‘n’ Roses singer Axl Rose once said, “All we need is a little patience” though, again, it’s unclear whether he was talking about FPL specifically.

Naturally, there is also a fairly obvious lesson in all of this for those FPL managers who are doing really well after two Gameweeks, which I suppose I could spell out, but, honestly, who really wants to help those people anyway?

My Gameweek 3 Team


Former Fantasy Premier League world champion and four-time finisher in the top 7k Simon March gives us the lowdown on his thinking for the new campaign.

2,796 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Cynical
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    A. Guaita and Foden
    B. Martinez and Zaha/Barnes

    1. kysersosa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B

    2. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Guaita and Zaha/Barnes

      1. Pep Roulette
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        And you solved his problem!

        1. FPL Daniel
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          He should downgrade somewhere else. Those 0.5m are surely worth imo

  2. Gnu
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    How many still haven't wildcarded?

    1. kysersosa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      We, but regretting it. I think I could of taken a -4 and been happy.

      1. Gnu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Holding off for another to see but it does seem contagious!

        1. DAZZ
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          A lot seem to be selling Werner, but as Son proved, a lot can change in one week

          1. Gnu
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Yep, I've got the scar to prove it.

          2. ilikewud
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Sell Werner at 9.5 buy at 9.4 easy

    2. DAZZ
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A lot seem to be using it around here.

    3. The Wanton Trader
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I’m holding mine.

      Too many options to choose from at present and I’m not confident enough to pick the right ones just yet...

      1. Gnu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        That's it in a nutshell, too much choice.

    4. Bobby Reds
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Aye man

      1. Gnu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Not on my own then, good.

  3. kysersosa
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    G2G?

    Ryan
    Keane, TAA, Saiss
    KDB, Bruno, Son, Podence
    Wood, (w)erner, Jimenez

    Nyland, Taylor, Mitchell, Romeu

    Plan will be Son and Bruno to Salah and 7.5 mid in GW6.

    TIA

    1. That Was Easy!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      It’s a nice team. I’d go Anguissa personally for the cheap mid spot.

      Like the Ryan pick, would prefer him over Martinez if I wasn’t going Lamptey. Your plan seems all well and good, just not confident on planning 2 transfers. One is sensible.

      1. kysersosa
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Thanks. Lamptey to Taylor is an option, double Brighton could work out great, never really going to be a disaster. Agree, I don’t like planning a double transfer. Another option is to go Greenwood over Bruno or Son to Rodriguez and have money ITB.

        1. That Was Easy!
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          For me, while there’s certainly less upside, this showcases why it might just be important to go Salah from the off. Throw in an injury or some spots loss and you’ll need to sacrifice bringing him in or not fixing the holes in your squad.

          For me that means going with Salah from the off and foregoing Son, but his appeal surely is there!

    2. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Why selling Son when the fixtures are still great

      1. FPL Daniel
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        ?

      2. kysersosa
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        That is a good point. I have to find a way to bring Salah in for the 2 home games. Maybe I can take money from the front line.

  4. Ninjaa
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Current team
    McCarthy Nyland
    TAA Egan Davies Justin Ferguson
    Salah Aubameyang JWP ASM Reed
    Werner Vardy Adams

    Agreed it ain't going well so far.
    2fts this gw. What should my 2 priority transfers be this week to start improving this lot? Thanks..

    1. ilikewud
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I would be tempted to WC tbh - McC, Egan, Davies, Auba, JWP, ASM and imho Adamn would go.

      With 2 ft - Auba to KDB or Sterling and Egan out for James?

  5. Flair
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Delap goal, gorgeous Foden assist. Absolutely killing the game right now

  6. That Was Easy!
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Going to go with Grealish as a 1 week punt in place of Barnes. Feels right.

  7. Flair
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Foden getting into plenty of offensive positions, even more advanced than Mahrez at times

    1. The Handsome Hunk
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Foden would be secure to start weekend? Mahrez also playing. Is Torres is threat ?

      1. Flair
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        We never know but I'm confident he'll start, especially if he's taken off early. Torres not a threat.

  8. FPL Daniel
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Watching the Tottenham game, Alli looks unfit

    1. ilikewud
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      true

  9. Kuzser
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Which combo on a WC guys?
    1) 3-5-2: Son Zaha Podence (Brewster)
    2) 3-4-3: Foden Barnes - Jiménez (Alzate)
    3) 3-4-3: Son Podence - Wood (Alzate)
    4) 3-4-3: Podence Foden - Jesus (Alzate)

    Martinez 4.0
    TAA Saiss Taylor (Justin Mitchell)
    KdB Salah XXX XXX XXX
    Dcl Werner XXX

    1. chilli con kone
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      3

  10. FPL Daniel
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Spurs concedes a screamer... Davies looks to me that will become a bench player

    1. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Basically he didnt react and left the space open. I am not sure that Jose will forget that

    2. The Handsome Hunk
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Would he be playing at weekend?

      1. FPL Daniel
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        I dont know. If I was an owner I would have been worried

  11. The Red Devil
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    How's this WC team?
    Ryan
    VVD James saiss
    Salah Kdb Son Zaha
    DCL Werner Mitrovic

    Steele Dunne Mitchell anguissa
    0.3 ITB

    1. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Template

  12. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Super confused on this

    A: Salah + Foden + Robbo
    B: Salah + Son + 4.5m def
    C: Sterling + Son + 5m def

    Already have Kdb if that makes a diff

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A

    2. chilli con kone
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A

    3. You've got red on you.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A

    4. Livinginapool - Top 100 Any…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A

  13. You've got red on you.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    WC opinions.

    Narrowed it down:

    a) Podence + Werner

    b) Son + Mitrovic

    1. That Was Easy!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      About as close as I’ve ever seen it. I think I’d go A.

    2. chilli con kone
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B

    3. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      a)

    4. That Was Easy!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      What do ya think here? Final questions on my WC.

      1) Ryan/Martinez or Guatia/Mendy (know I’d likely miss a game here)...have .7 itb I’m happy to spend on a 5.0 keeper
      2) Wood vs Foden. May hinge on if Foden gets hauled off early.
      1) 1 week placeholder for Barnes = Hamez, Zaha, Grealish, Mount

      1. You've got red on you.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        1) Ryan

        2) Foden (although I've not got the minerals

        3) Hamez

    5. The Red Devil
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B

  14. chilli con kone
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Probably been asked a few times already but...

    Auba > Kevin -4?

    1. ilikewud
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I would want Kevin a minus 4 is tough tho as Auba is going to play. I would say yes.

  15. Alexis Nonsense
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Play one:

    A) Ayling (Leeds leaky it seems, but ha attacking potential)

    B) Dunne (I fear Ings)

    1. chilli con kone
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A

  16. tabby98
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Should i WC?

    Mccarthy, (Nyland)
    TAA, James, KWP, Justin, (Mitchell)
    Salah, Auba, ASM, Bruno (Stephens)
    Werner, DCL, (Davis)

    1. chilli con kone
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      No

    2. Sanchit
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Just Auba to KdB and you're good to go

  17. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Is Son potentially a trap?
    I'm considering to take him in instead of Fernandes as part of a double hit.

    1. ilikewud
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      How is Son a trap? He gets a good return every year, he's no Zaha or Willian

      1. stat sifter 888888
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        So much competition for those positions now, Mourinho is unpredictable with his attacking players on top of that and Son has been questioned before for his defensive contributions.

        1. ilikewud
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Stop - He's nailed when fit. Just looking for a reason to not own him which is fine, but he's not a trap.

          1. stat sifter 888888
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Stop- people would have said the same with Alli before... Bale/Moura/Bergwijn/Lamela are all established and credible options. Son has been the attacker questioned the most about defensive contributions after Alli and Mourinho is hardly short of decent options in those positions.

            1. Teahupo'o
              • 12 Years
              3 years, 6 months ago

              This is absurd. Son is nailed. Alli hasn't been for a long time, whether under Poch or Mourinho.

            2. popey
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              3 years, 6 months ago

              are Moura, Bergwijn and Lamela actually credible optionsto replace Son though? I would say no chance

            3. Sonaldo Nazario
              • 8 Years
              3 years, 6 months ago

              Most absurd thing I have heard in a while.

      2. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Mourinho... Turning me of a little bit.

        1. Ajax Hamsterdam
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          trap might be a big word but i prioritise jimmy and werner over him, cant have them all

        2. ilikewud
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Thats fair - his tactics aren't known for being very attacking but Son will tick along like he does most years. Thats not to say that better options won't emerge but he's worth it when they have good fixture me think.

          1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Thank you! Probably getting him in.

    2. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      4 goal trap...I'd like to fall into it

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        When you put it like that, hah!

  18. Champions League Varane
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Reguillon? Chillwell?

    Anyone interested?

    1. chilli con kone
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Has Reg been priced?

      1. ilikewud
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        5.5

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Semedo for me

      1. Pep Roulette
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        This

    3. KayArch
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Is chilwell nailed !

  19. gonzalocampos
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    On WC, what do you think about this plan:

    Team A (Son to Sterling GW4 for free) - Son play United / Sterling play Leeds
    Martinez
    VVD - James - Saiss
    KDB - Salah - Son - Podence
    Bamford - DCL - Jimenez

    Team B (Keep Werner and change to Jimenez to save 1.2M)
    Martinez
    TAA - James - Saiss
    KDB - Salah - Son - Podence
    Bamford - DCL - Werner

  20. Ginkapo FPL
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    This is why I intentionally start badly every year

  21. davewg59
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Ignoring the price......
    Castagne or Saiss?

    1. The Red Devil
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Saiss
      Better CS chances

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      ndidi injured so saiss

    3. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Saiss for now

    4. Zimo
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Saiss has better fixtures

  22. The White Pele
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Anyone going with Mendy as GK?
    (have James).

  23. Will J 256
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Which three do you prefer?
    Son
    Calvert-Lewin
    Taylor

    Greenwood
    Richarlison
    R James

    1. You've got red on you.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I think the second lot

    2. ilikewud
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B if you think greenwood gets minus and you have a bench if he doesn't otherwise A

    3. stat sifter 888888
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      James over Taylor and DCL over Richi (even as a current Richi owner) and whoever in midfield.

      1. Will J 256
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Thanks mate!!

  24. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    thoughts on ollie watkins ? mitrovic a better option ? thanks

  25. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    How is Mahrez playing? Good enough to play rather than Foden? Or 1/2 of games as they did end of last season.

    1. ilikewud
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Either way they are both likely to be a rotation risk. I wouldn't go near them, way to unpredictable.

    2. Flair
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Foden is the best player on the pitch, running the game. Mahrez not that involved.

      1. Karan14
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        What position is he playing?

        1. FPL Daniel
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Mahrez plays CAM

        2. Flair
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Not entirely sure, RCM with freedom to roam to the left is what I'm seeing. Getting very advanced, higher than Mahrez at times.

          1. Karan14
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Sounds promising. Let's hope he gets subbed early and starts on the weekend.

  26. Dr Van Nostrand
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    4 nil already for Liverpool over stinking Lincoln

  27. The Red Devil
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    WC team-
    Ryan
    VVD James saiss
    Salah Kdb Son Zaha
    DCL Werner Mitrovic

    Steele Dunne Mitchell anguissa
    0.3 ITB

  28. finnish92
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    James Rodriguez or Harvey Barnes? (longterm)

  29. KGFC
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Guys, any update on Marcal injury?

    If he is out, does that make Vinagre an option??

    1. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Tomorrow

      1. KGFC
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Thanks

  30. FPL Daniel
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Son scores. Some lad above said he is a trap. Oh my