Pro Pundits - Simon

Why impatience can be a virtue in Fantasy Football

Former FPL world champion Simon March discusses when the laissez-faire approach might not be the best one when it comes to Fantasy management.


I sometimes talk in these articles about what I see as the importance of patience as an attribute among Fantasy managers and, while I stand by those views, I’m going to use this article to confuse things a little and suggest that a lack of patience can also be a virtue among Fantasy Premier League bosses, in certain circumstances.

There’s an old Wall Street saying that goes: “Cut your losses and let your winners run.” That basically means: “Sell your losing shares and keep the ones that are making you a profit.” Applied to FPL, this principle would recommend that we sell the blanking or underperforming players and hold onto the ones who are scoring us points. This makes obvious intuitive sense; if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. However, following the ‘let your winners run’ principle too dogmatically can also backfire, and here’s why.

Our tendency as humans to not want to change something that is working is a fairly natural mindset. Even in the world of actual Premier League management, there is a commonly accepted maxim that you should ‘never change a winning team.’ Indeed, in FPL, it’s very difficult to get rid of a player who has been delivering for you. I’m almost certain that anyone who has played this game for any amount of time has, at least once, brought in a player for a set run of good fixtures and ended up keeping them long after that run had ended because they’d done well during that time. This is an example of ‘letting our winners run’.

Obviously, it’s difficult to justify getting rid of a player when they appear to be ‘in form’ but jumping off players at the right time can be as important as bringing them in at the right time in this game. To help illustrate why, consider the following.

Say you created a ‘dead team’ last season (i.e. one you make no changes to over the whole campaign) and all 11 of your starting players averaged 175 points – a very strong return per player that year (almost the equivalent of 11 x Andy Robertson). With captain points doubled, that would equal 2,100 points overall. Let’s be extra generous and chuck in another 50 points for choosing your captain extra well and another 100 points from your chips. That’s 2,250 points which, last season, would have got you approximately a 125k finish. Not bad by any means, but still about 100 points short of what would have been needed to break the aspirational top 10k.

The point here is that, in FPL, you can make really good player and captain choices and still not trouble the top 100k. To do really, really well, you’ll also need to transfer players in and out in an effective manner, to exploit their peaks and to avoid their lows.

So, short of being extremely lucky, how do you do this? Obviously none of us have a conclusive answer (yet) but we each have our own ways of determining a player’s expected return. Some of us, for example, look at fixtures and assume that players will score better in easier than harder matches. Others look at underlying stats with the belief that, if a player is delivering high numbers in a certain attribute, they are worth investing in. Alternatively, we sometimes bring a player in because they are, perhaps temporarily, playing out of position and their scores benefit as a result of that.

The key thing here is that, whatever your objective means of predicting player performance, if you believe it works, then you should, logically, stick to it both with respect to bringing players in, and in moving them out. If your system is successful in predicting that a player will score well, then it stands to reason that it should also be successful in predicting when that player will stop scoring as well. When this happens, it is time to move the player out. The temptation, as discussed, will be to ‘let your winners run’ but the consequences of this may not only be to hold on to a player whose performance subsequently dips but, also, missing out on the opportunity to bring in a player who may outperform them.

So, in summary, while patience in FPL is a virtue when the conditions are right for the player in question to do well, impatience can be equally virtuous when those conditions change to their detriment. Knowing when to make changes is only half the battle; FPL managers need also to be willing to execute those changes and that might mean transferring out previously high performers.

As Charlie Chaplin once said (probably about FPL): “This is a ruthless world, and one must be ruthless to cope with it.”


Simon is a former FPL world champion, claiming the coveted price in 2014/15. But there is more to this man than one season of good fortune. Since 2009, Simon has finished in the top 7k four times, only ending up outside the world’s top 60k once in an 11-campaign career.

737 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Steve The Spud
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Coady > Saïss

    1. Valar(Keith)
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yes I would do that move 🙂

  2. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Lovely finish from Coady!! I had him in my team last time he scored.... own goal away at Burnley!! The only week I’ve owned him!!

  3. KDB4PREZ
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    On W/C would you keep richarlison or ditch for DCL?

    1. Hulk Smash
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Swap for DCL. It looks like the handball penalty fad is over now and Richarlison is injury prone.

      1. Third Eye Vision
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Does injury-prone just mean ‘he’s gets kicked a lot’? He misses very few games in a season, so not injury-prone in my opinion.

        1. Bushwhacker
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Yeah I wouldn't confuse dives a lot and spends an awful lot of time rolling around on the ground with "injury prone".

      2. Tinkermania
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Has handball rule changed? Am I missing something?

  4. Hulk Smash
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Beckham-esque delivery from Trippier for the goal

  5. Fred54
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    This was Conor Coady's 3rd shot in 135+ games.

    1. circusmonkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      He took it with his wrong foot, lucky.

  6. Steve The Spud
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Wales defending well

    1. Fred54
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Danny Boy O doesn't care.

  7. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Nice to see my two strikers have scored

    1. Hulk Smash
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Same

      *Cancels wildcard*

    2. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Same mate!! And Jiménez last night too!! Would have preferred their goals to have been against West Brom and Fulham last weekend tho!! Haha

  8. mrodgers91
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Danny ings showing why he should have been on the pitch for the last 3 England games. Couldn't be happier for the lad

    1. Hulk Smash
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      It's nice to see players in form given a deserved chance. Happy for Pope, Ings, DCL and Grealish.

  9. Danstoke82
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Which one long term To partner DCL?

    A) Ings
    B) Jimenez

    1. Danstoke82
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Or C) Wilson

    2. Brosstan
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A

    3. mrodgers91
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Be tempted for all three the way goals have been going in this season

      1. Danstoke82
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Tough to choose isn’t it!

    4. Free Hat
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Maupay or Antonio to make it even more difficult!

    5. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Neither. Long term Antonio but will keep Jimenez 2-3 weeks more

      1. mrelpea
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Same. 3 more and he’s gone for me too

  10. mrodgers91
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Forgot about FPL for the last week and the transfers I was going to do already have me £0.8m down on if i did it earlier =(

  11. thehodge
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    I may be overthinking here but I did an early transfer of Werner - Kane and not I kind of regret not doing Werner and Klich - Maupay and Klich - Son for -4.

    What’s done is done now but is Klich to Trossard worth -4? Have the exact .4 for the move.

    Any thoughts appreciated

    1. Seanigula
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Reread that first sentence and see if it makes any sense

    2. Breaking FPL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Kane could work out mate, he's a differential in the sense that most will go for Son.

      I wouldn't take a -4 for Trossard personally, would just wait and do next week

    3. Gingerman
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      -4 to get Trossard, nah.

  12. 03farmboy
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Jorginho or Barkley?

    Both looking like good cheap options

    1. Breaking FPL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Don't like Jorginho has an option, even on penalties, would never get him in personally

      1. Bushwhacker
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah IF he starts and IF Chelsea get a penalty . . he won't score 2 pts.

  13. Ci Siamo
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Which combo is best for the WC?

    a) Mane, Son, DCL, Pulisic

    B) Salah, Kane, Rodriguez, Zaha

    1. Seanigula
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Salah, Son, DCL, Rod.

      1. FPL_trail_runner
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Agreed.

      2. FC Hakkebøf
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Pulisic > Rodriguez

  14. Aaa
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    A - Werner and Adams -> DCL and Maupay

    B - Adams and Davies -> Watkins and Saiss

  15. Tinkermania
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    It's so refreshing to see an England striker working their socks off and showing plenty of movement and scoring goal/s instead of waiting for a penalty. I would watch England more if we had these.

  16. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Those with Foden. What is your plan? Uograde to Grealish this or next week or have faith?

    1. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Or transfer to someone that isn't Grealish.

    2. Gunners in Haaland
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I'll decide next week...

    3. onceuponatyne
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Injury/Suspension/Covid aside - he's in my side for the season.

      That price point for Man City minutes?
      Even if he only gets cameos at times (like everyone else bar KDB, Laporte and Ederson), he'll still get points in those minutes. The rest of the time, plenty of threat.

    4. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I’d keep faith a little longer.

    5. mrelpea
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yep,I’m keeping him in longer. Mainly because I have next three weeks transfers mapped out but also a lot of it is what onceupontyne said: he will get rotated but also points and threaten

  17. SteJ
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Interesting article. Sums up part of my poor performsnce post xmas last season when I kept Leicester players, who had form and fixtures, but who failed to perform. Saw my 30k rand drop to the 300k's

  18. Bubz
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Where was Kane tonight?

    1. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      He was watching in the stands. Just rested to watch the experimental team.

      1. Bubz
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Ah, cheers

  19. FPL_trail_runner
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Anyone looking at the fixture swing around week 10 for city and how to target it?

    Im looking to get to the below with transfers over following weeks
    5: Jimenez to Antonio , maybe Barnes to Son to save 0.2mil
    6 Justin to 3.9mil
    7 Biss to Stephens
    8
    9
    10 Saiss & Son to KDB and 4mil

    All are pretty rotation proof or should be.

    Meslier
    Ayling Robbo TAA
    Sterling KDB* Salah Hamez
    Dcl Antonio Brewster

    4M stephens, 4m, 3,9m

    Reckon its worth the risk with one sub for 6 weeks prior to the next wildcard, brewster can be just left in the 11 from week 9 until 2nd wildcard

    KDB i dont have currently, antonio is my transfer in this week, And I may get son since money is tight and moving a week early would give me 0,1- 0,2 for future. Since the above team is just affordable currently

    1. AYLD28
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I put money in GW7 you will not have a free transfer to make to save 0.1m

      Can’t plan than far imo

  20. Epic Fail
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Southgate stuttering talking about Grealish trying not to praise him. Absolute cretin.

    1. Reeker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      What's been said?

      1. Epic Fail
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        It's what wasn't said. The interviewer asked him about a few players. The compliments flew off the tongue with ease until it came to being asked about Grealish and he turned into a bumbling mess barely saying anything positive at all.

        1. GreennRed
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          What's the deal with them. He said a few weeks ago that he couldn't find a place in an England squad for him but picked inexperienced mids nowhere near as good as him. An ex-Villa player himself maybe Grealish isn't boring enough for him?

    2. SuperG
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Thought the same thing.

  21. Quan MisTaka
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Souek or Jorginho

    5th mid keeper?

    Who do we think?

    Jorginho on pens but Souek cheaper and better underlying stats???

    Both are nailed riiight?

    1. Bushwhacker
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Soucek is.

    2. Quan MisTaka
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      SouCek.

      Muchos pardons

  22. GreennRed
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Penalties!

    1. Ógie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      We should have had it wrapped up already.

      Coin flip now.

      1. GreennRed
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah, plenty of chances, no cutting edge. Starting to play nice ball under Kenny though.

        1. Ógie
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Sick result. 🙁

          1. GreennRed
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            Onwards and upwards Ógie. No doubt there'll be clowns on Journal.ie asking for Kenny to resign. The Slovak 4th penalty was class 🙂

            1. Ógie
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              3 years, 5 months ago

              That wouldn't surprise me,the Journal.ie comment section is a horrible place.

              1. GreennRed
                • 12 Years
                3 years, 5 months ago

                Tony Hoolihan has advisors on it! How are you keeping Ógie? Difficult to see any intercounty hurling or football championships in 2020.

                1. Ógie
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 11 Years
                  3 years, 5 months ago

                  I've been better,ive been worse i guess.

                  Was pretty busy the last few months but things have just grinded to a halt now.
                  This latest round of restrictions are a kick in the teeth that we all could have done without.

                  Hopefully they can get the football and hurling up and going but right now it does not look good.
                  Bleak winter ahead if they cant get things up and running and not even Christmas to look forward to.

  23. AD2110
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Who do I get long term?

    Ings or Jiminez

    Have DCL and Wilson as other front 2

    1. Quan MisTaka
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      For me

      Eye test says ings and sou over jimi and wolves. But stats say jimi. Id hold one more week tben reasses

    2. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Ings but tight call. Jimenez has no European distractions.

    3. FPL_trail_runner
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Brewster for longerterm punt and money in the midfield

      Or Antonio.

      Im selling Jimi this week

      1. GreennRed
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Wilson. Are you selling Jimenez purely to upgrade midfield?

    4. FFSbet.com
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Maybe wait and see for Cavani,could be bargain

  24. SuperG
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Jimmy has terrible fixtures after GW8. And he’s done Jack during good fixtures.

    1. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      You think he's unlikely to score against Arsenal, Leicester and Liverpool?

  25. FPL Blow-In
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Ireland 🙁

    1. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yeah. Republic out. Would have been a tasty playoff v The North.

      1. FPL Blow-In
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        In Belfast too. I’m absolutely gutted. As far as ROI 0-0 draws go, that was an entertaining game and probably their best away performance for a long long time. Had the chances to win it too. That Hourihane miss 😳

  26. Brosstan
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Doherty no longer on pens. Unlucky owners

  27. PocketZola
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Is it dangerous to go mancityless?

    martinez
    rob chilwell castange
    salah son grealish jrod
    dcl vardy wilson

    subs, steer, jorginho, mitchell, dunn

    1. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Not in defence the way they're playing. De Bruyne should remain a good if expensive pick. Aguero when fit always good. If Foden or Mahrez were nailed on then definitely worth investing.

    2. FFSbet.com
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Some went Salahless in GW1,i think going without City attack will be big mistake.

  28. Ci Siamo
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Any chance Mane will drop in price again? Could just complete my WC team

    1. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Can't you rejig the other 14 to fit him in?

  29. Top Lad Dakes.
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    God it’s tough supporting Scotland. Come on.

    Selections always baffle me though. Dunno who the CB options are, nobody great - though the 2 lads were okay today. But Tierney either RB or even LCB (or Robbo) with a big man as the other CB to help with size in the box. 3 from McTominay McGregor Christie McGinn Fleck McClean playing as a midfield 3, set up differently depending on opposition. Fraser out left, Russell out right and Forrest up top? Armstrong another option attacking mid or out right.

    If only we still had the quality of Griffiths/Naismith/McFadden/Miller up top.

  30. FPL_Hazards
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Welcome back Kepa