Making Sense of the Chaos

FPL managers are reeling from a start to the season that has delivered results that no one saw coming. The default reactions include a shrug of the shoulders, points-chasing transfers or cursing Lady Luck. 

However, I think a more interesting and productive approach is to try to build a mental model of why we’ve seen what we have. A theory that, if it contains some insight, can help us make successful predictions that others won’t see. The essence of FPL success.

The beauty of this approach is that if our model is wrong, and the bizarre results are purely randomness on steroids or are down to some other reason we haven’t yet understood, we can go back to the drawing board and try again. 

A mental model is simply a rule of thumb that helps you link what has happened in the past to what you expect from the future, and is at the heart of the FPL game.

A blindingly simple example would be captaining a high-scoring player from the prior year in a fixture with a favourable difficulty rating. As FPL managers know all too well actual results differ from our expectations for all sorts of reasons (like Jorginho‘s penalty miss against Liverpool robbing Timo Werner owners of an assist, or Andy Carroll heading a ball in injury time onto Eric Dier‘s arm to cancel his clean sheet). 

These sort of examples are part and parcel of every Gameweek. But this season’s weirdness is different: it’s not just the number of goals scored, it’s that the defences that are conceding them include those considered at the start of the season to be the among the best (such as Liverpool, Man City and Man United). Meanwhile, teams with “unfashionable” managers such as Tottenham, West Ham and Aston Villa are amongst those inflicting the damage.   

A New Approach

What could account for this? The mental model I’m building divides the clubs into three categories:

Category one I’ll call “The Perfectionists“. These are teams that use patterns of play that don’t vary too much by opponent. The focus of these teams is being exceptionally good at their chosen style. This includes the highly rated and fluid Liverpool and Man City, the aspiring-to-similar Arsenal, Southampton and Brighton, the more eclectic Sheffield United, Wolves and Leeds, and the efficient Burnley.

Category two I’ll call “The Predators“. These are teams whose approach tends to be customised to account for the perceived weaknesses of their opponents. Jose Mourinho at Tottenham is the Arch-Predator. Other teams that tend to operate this way include West Ham, Aston Villa and Newcastle. Leicester do this too, but tend to save it for when their opponent is considered strong.

Category three I’ll call “The Creatives“. Those that build their attacking structure around a talismanic creative force. Everton (around James Rodriguez) and West Brom (around Matheus Pereira) are the core members of this group.

I would consider Man United Perfectionist/Creative, and Chelsea Creative/Predator. I will loosely call Fulham Perfectionist, but their identity is the least well defined so far, and may be part of the reason they have struggled to adapt to the EPL so far.

How to use the model

My theory is that games between teams from within the same category will tend to be relatively orderly.

Two Perfectionists will know what to expect, and set up accordingly. For example, Man City vs Wolves in Gameweek 2 was of high quality but followed a relatively predictable path, with City running out 3-1 winners. Arsenal vs Sheffield United was a more dour game of few chances, but again resulted in a relatively predictable outcome (2-1 Arsenal).

Predator v Predator games are often cagey, as they will tend toward caution in the absence of predictability in their opponent. The Tottenham vs Newcastle game is a good example of this, where Tottenham withdrew Son at half time and didn’t press to increase their significant open-play advantage in the second half, slipping to a 1-1 draw.

Creative team’s fortunes are closely linked to the performance and quality of their talismanic player, with Rodriguez’s brilliance driving Everton to unexpected heights so far.

This season, it’s the clashes of the Perfectionists and the Predators that have produced the chaos.

I think the Southampton v Tottenham clash is particularly instructive. While the final score of 2-5 suggests a comfortable Spurs win, viewers of this game would have noted Saints were completely dominant right up until injury time of the first half. However, when things went against Perfectionist Southampton they refused to adapt.

Similarly, Man City started on fire vs Leicester (who were in full predator mode for this one) before also being routed 2-5.

Perhaps the biggest upset of all, Aston Villa vs Liverpool, (7-2 for those living on Mars) not only featured mega hauls for Aston Villa attackers, but also a very handy 13 points for Mo Salah owners. 

The point here is that Perfectionist v Predator match ups are not only unpredictable, they are inherently aggressive: Predators are going after their opponent’s weaknesses. This tends to be a high-risk, high-reward style that creates chances for the Perfectionists as well, who could well inflict their share of heavy beatings over hapless Predators in coming games.

Rather than targeting fixtures based on perceived opponent strength, it could be that embracing chaos by looking for Predator v Perfectionist match ups for your attacking assets could be the right approach for this season. 

– Homeandhosed

I think xG models (that suggest the number of goals scored is far higher than would be expected based on chances created) are missing this trend. For example, Son Heung-Min‘s six goals have come from an xG of less than two. However, a number of these goals were 1-on-1 with the ‘keeper (producing higher quality chances than xG can detect), as a result of Predator breaches of Perfectionist defensive lines. If nothing changes tactically, this sort of xG outperformance is sustainable.

Looking ahead

FPL managers intrigued by this line of argument should pay careful attention to the upcoming Tottenham v West Ham game. While both teams have been high scoring recently, my mental model would predict a fairly cautious game. If either team wins decisively, I will adjust up my rating of their primary attacking options significantly.

There aren’t too many chaotic match ups listed for Gameweek 5 unfortunately, with Chelsea v Southampton the most likely. The Crystal Palace / Brighton natural rivalry may keep that game conservative, while Leicester may revert to Predator type against Villa after their exploits last week. Overall I would expect goal numbers in Gameweek 5 to be down significantly compared to the last few weeks. 

Beyond this week, Villa and West Ham attackers look to have a far better run of fixtures than a glance of the FDR’s would imply, with plenty of Perfectionists on the horizon.  

Of course, this model is not a solution to the current season of FPL. In reality, the Klopp’s and Guardiola’s of the world didn’t get to where they are by refusing to adapt to their circumstances, and I would expect the craziness to settle down into a more natural order before too long.

In the meantime though, I would invite you to embrace the chaos!