Spot the Differential

In-form FPL differential Watkins set for favourable fixture run after Foxes test

Gameweek 4 saw one of our differential picks, Leandro Trossard (£6.0m), deliver for his owners, while former column favourites Raheem Sterling (£11.5m) and Ryan Fraser (£5.9m) also registered attacking returns.

There’s no shortage of candidates to consider this week, either.

This time, we’ve selected differentials from Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Manchester United, who we like the look of for Gameweek 5 and beyond.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Ollie Watkins

Making Sense of the Chaos 1
  • FPL ownership: 3.5%
  • Price: £5.9m
  • GW5-9 fixtures: lei | LEE | SOU | ars | BHA

Ollie Watkins (£5.9m) has got off to a flying start at Aston Villa, having arrived in Birmingham last month for a club-record fee of £28m.

After scoring in a pre-season friendly against Manchester United, he has since bagged a goal on his debut against Burton Albion in the Carabao Cup and hit a hat-trick in the 7-2 win over Liverpool. It’s now five goals in six games in all competitions, and you get the feeling he’s just getting started.

The 24-year-old, who scored 26 goals in the Championship last term, has very few weaknesses to his game. He is a quick, strong and extremely hard-working forward, who is equally comfortable holding up the ball or offering a threat in behind. The breakdown of last season’s goals also backs up his all-rounder tag: 16 were scored from inside the penalty area, eight from inside the six-yard box, with two coming from long-range. He is also capable with both feet – he netted 10 with his right foot, seven with his left foot and eight with his head.

Since making his debut in Gameweek 2, Watkins ranks joint-fourth for shots in the box, joint-second for big chances and third for chances created amongst forwards, which suggests points will arrive from both goals and assists.

He now faces a Leicester City defence that has conceded seven goals in their last three league outings, and may be without key centre-back Çaglar Söyüncü (£5.5m). The real appeal, however, lies in what’s to come, with an appealing schedule that runs right up until Gameweek 15.

Priced at just £5.9m, Watkins was recently labelled “undefendable” by Jürgen Klopp. If he can now kick on and build on that performance against Liverpool, he may well be the pick of the budget FPL forwards.

Vicente Guaita

  • FPL ownership: 4.6%
  • Price: £5.0m
  • GW5-9 fixtures: BHA | ful | wol | LEE | bur

After arriving from Getafe in summer 2018, Vicente Guaita (£5.0m) has gone on to establish himself as one of Crystal Palace’s most influential players.

The 33-year-old was the Eagles’ stand-out performer last season, combining 10 clean sheets with 16 bonus points and 27 save points. As a result, his total of 137 points was bettered by only six goalkeepers.

Although far from the most attacking of teams, Roy Hodgson has done a good job making Palace one of the most organised sides around. His players are well drilled and understand their roles, which has ensured a steady stream of clean sheets over the years.

This season, a win against Southampton on the opening day was followed by another victory at Manchester United, which showcased their defensive qualities and threat on the counter-attack. Even in the defeat at Everton there were positives. However, their 4-0 defeat at Chelsea last time out felt like a throwback to their terrible form during Project Restart. Still, six points on the board, considering their schedule, is a good enough start.

Palace welcome Brighton and Hove Albion this weekend. The M23 derby is usually a tight affair, with the last three league meetings separated by one goal or fewer. After that, their fixture run looks promising, with a decent-looking sequence of matches right up until mid-December.

Guaita’s numbers consistently rank amongst the best goalkeepers in the league, and with his outstanding shot-stopping ability, he could be a nice differential for those on the lookout for a new keeper.

Mason Greenwood

should-we-be-planning-for-manchester-united-fpl-attacking-players 5
  • FPL ownership: 5.0%
  • Price: £7.3m
  • GW5-9 fixtures: new | CHE | ARS | eve | WBA

Having made a huge impact towards the end of the 2019/20 season, Mason Greenwood’s (£7.3m) reclassification to a midfielder by FPL was met with widespread enthusiasm in the community, and understandably so.

He netted five times in just eight league starts post-lockdown, helping Manchester United secure a top-three finish and Champions League football.

However, so far this season, things haven’t quite gone to plan.

Greenwood, a product of United’s academy, has made four appearances for the Red Devils, with his only goal contributions arriving in the Carabao Cup. Playing out on the right wing, he has often looked isolated, leading him to snatch at shots when he has had an opportunity.

An error of judgement with England resulted in Gareth Southgate leaving him out of his latest squad, which has meant he has been able to rest these last couple of weeks, and the hope is now that the break will have done him good, providing the physical and mental respite needed.

This weekend, a trip to Newcastle United gives United the chance to get back on track, and with Anthony Martial (£8.8m) and Edinson Cavani (£8.0m) unavailable, we could see Greenwood leading the line as a central striker. Marcus Rashford (£9.5m) and Odion Ighalo (£6.3m) are other options but it would seem to make sense that Greenwood is moved to play in his natural position with either Daniel James (£6.4m) or Juan Mata (£5.9m) playing from the right.

A skilful forward who has excellent finishing abilities, Greenwood can become a top number nine in years to come, and if given an opportunity to put forward his credentials this weekend, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him get on the scoresheet.


475 Comments Post a Comment
  1. I Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Play Justin (AVL) or Lamptey (cry)?

    1. The Road to Turfdom
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Justin

  2. Amey
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Good pick Tom 😎

    By chance he's in my FPL team & another draft team as well !

    1. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Olie Watkins*

    2. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Looks quality doesn't he, massive upgrade on what we had.

      1. Amey
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Grealish always creates chances.
        Looks like Villa finally got a Striker who can take some of them. I've got him this GW after that display.

        Thing i liked was he was getting loads of chances.

  3. Mackans
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Play Saiss (lee) or Adams (che)?

    1. The Road to Turfdom
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Adams

    2. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      (Che) Adams

    3. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Saiss

  4. Puncheon Guly
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Who's the best sub-6.8 striker?

    Wilson
    Maupay
    Bamford
    Watkins
    Antonio
    Mitro

    1. Samwise
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      big ant or willy Wilson

    2. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Antonio

    3. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Maupay

    4. Yankee Toffee
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Bam

    5. Tingate
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Next four i'd say Watkins

      1. Puncheon Guly
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        haha, thanks all. nice to see a complete lack of consensus!

        1. Silecro
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Wilson...here you go

  5. Ajaxeeding
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Is James Justin in danger of losing his starting spot?

  6. Hotdogs for Tea
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Brewster

    “Breath of fresh air. He’s given us a spark. The decision to start him or not is a big one. He’s been working extremely hard, undoubted natural talent.” The Gaffer on Rhian Brewster

    1. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Even if he starts then, unlikely to get full 90 minutes?

    2. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Starting him then.

      Sheffield got nothing else up front, the rest are mid table Championship quality at best.

      1. Hotdogs for Tea
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Brewster has mainly played mid table Championship football 😉

        1. Nomar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Yes, but that’s not his ceiling, is it.

          1. Hotdogs for Tea
            • 8 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            maybe it is ?

            If he starts I will no doubt buy him 🙂

  7. FER FUSCH AKE
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Is Kdb Captain a good option this week? It's either him or Salah.

    1. Samwise
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      who knows

    2. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      If fully fit, then definitely a good option

  8. jam sandwich
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    RMWCT

    Martinez - Steer
    Robertson - Chilwell - Saiss - Lamptey - Branthwaite
    Salah - Son - Pulisic - Rodriguez - Bissouma
    Kane - DCL - Maupay

    1. TheSteel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Is it early yet for Puli? I guess not on WC, but im considering him for this week.

      1. Stormbringer22
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Given that the lad is on a WC, I would say Pulisic is almost a must. I wouldn't spend an FT to bring him in though just yet.

        1. jam sandwich
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          I can confirm I am on a WC, and I am most definitely a lad

          1. Stormbringer22
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            😀

            1. TheSteel
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              3 years, 5 months ago

              Cheers fellas

    2. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Rodriguez -> Grealish
      Robbo -> TAA

      Just my two cents

    3. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Is Kane going to become Kun in the future? Is that the Man City plan?

      1. FC Hakkebøf
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Kane + rod -> KDB + Antonio could be the route later on

        1. Stormbringer22
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          I love that. Antonio is a must from me in a couple of GWs

          1. Stormbringer22
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            3 years, 5 months ago

            for*

        2. jam sandwich
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          something like that around GW9

  9. Catalan Rangers
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Hello!

    Anyone knows if Mané is gonna play? Worth selling to Son?

    Thanks!

    1. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Mane back fit and in training. Given that it is the derby, I would definitely expect him to play.

    2. yosim
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Mane usually scores in the derby

  10. bobwils
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Any news on De Bruyne?

    1. TheSteel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Pep presser later today

    2. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Press conference at 1.30 mate.

  11. aapoman
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    wildcard thoughts?

    Martinez
    Robbo Lamptey Ayling
    Salah Sterling/KDB Hamez Grealish Trossard
    Kane DCL

    Forster; Brewster, KWP, Kilman

    1. TheSteel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Very good

    2. StoichkovFPL
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Very good team! Just Ayling to Dallas imo.

    3. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Beauty. At least this week. Next week would probably be an entirely new "template" team the way things are going.

    4. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Much better than the last one you posted. Maybe aim for Son + Maupay over Kane + Trossard so you can upgrade KWP to Saiss

      1. FC Hakkebøf
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Or Hamez to Puli

        1. Konstaapeli
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Now why would you do that?

  12. trimpos
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Pls help

    To start:
    Podence or Bamford

    Captain:
    Bruno or KDB or Kane

    1. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Bamford. Kane

    2. NUFCAndrew
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Bamford Kane

      1. The Mighty Whites
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        This

  13. Brehmeren
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Not sure if posted already, but apparently Said Benrahma failed the medical at West Ham.

    1. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Fornals party ?

  14. NUFCAndrew
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Does this need a WC? Justin & Mitchell reaching the end of their time and a few pressing issues. 0.8 ITB

    McCarthy Steer

    Trent Saiss Justin Mitchell Branthwaite

    Salah KDB Bruno Soucek Bissouma

    Ings DCL Mitro

    1. Zrinkec
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      No WC, do next week Bruno to Son and JUstin to somebody like Chilwell.

  15. Openboxman
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Who we captaining.

    On salah atm. Tempted by pulisic

    Martinez
    James - saiss - TAA
    Pulisic - Salah - Foden - KDB
    Watkins - jimmy - DCL

    Podence - lamptey - Mitchell

    1. NUFCAndrew
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I think I’ll captain KDB

    2. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Pulisic would be uber-differential. GL if you do it. Salah for me or Kane if I had him

  16. Blue&White85
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Which option please?

    A. Sterling & Watkins

    B. Grealish & Kane

    I own Son.

    1. korbendallas82
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      B

      1. Blue&White85
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks.

  17. Baines on Toast...
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    I do think Greenwood could be the latest player to make that week's wildcards look silly. A lot of Grealish/Hamez > Greenwood next week.

    1. Blue&White85
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      He’s certainly got potential to do very well and is a good price. They have a tough run though.

      1. Baines on Toast...
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        United better in big games though generally

  18. korbendallas82
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Pretty similar to other teams here, in terms of yellow flags.
    I think i stick to my plan, and save ft, so i have 2 for next gw. Worked pretty good so far.
    I would prefer to own Grealish, but i think Maximin has given me reason to keep him.
    KDB could be out, but that transfer would be -4. And Mane And Sterling are only 2 who look to fit in for him. I dont think its woth -4, and a tighter transfer freedom next week.
    Any suggestion?

    Mccarthy ( Nyland)
    Robertson Chilwell* Justin Taylor ( KWP)
    Salah KDB* Son Rodriguez. ( Saint Maximin*)
    Maupay DCL

    1. korbendallas82
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Forgot Davis on last bench spot, Forward.

  19. JONALDINHO
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Thoughts on this WC? Pretty set on it

    Martinez
    Robertson • Semedo • Dallas
    Salah • KDB • Son • James
    DCL • Maupay • Watkins.
    (4.0 / KWP / Masuaku / 4.5).

    Will do KDB to Sterling if he’s not fit and have 0.5ITB for easy swaps over the next few weeks

    1. Blue&White85
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Looks good.

  20. sergioaguero67
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Keep or sell Sterling?

    I could replace him with Son. Will Sterling start this weekend? 75% injury status

    Please help.

    1. Traction Engine Foot
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I think Sterling will play

  21. Ronnies
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Did Wilder give any indication he might start Brewster Vs Fulham?

    I can't find any information on his presser.

    Thanks.

    1. My heart goes Salalalalah
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Look up...

    2. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      See Hotdogs for Tea's post further above

  22. My heart goes Salalalalah
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Armband?

    A) Son
    B) KdB
    c) Salah

    1. Traction Engine Foot
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A

    2. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Listen to your heart, which apparently goes Salalalalah. That's my intent this week as well

      1. My heart goes Salalalalah
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        My heart has been way off this season mate LOL. Only got Salah this week, I know...

  23. tim
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Start Mitchell or Doherty?

    Both need sorting out next week!

    1. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Neither may start this GW

      1. tim
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Time for a hit? Lamptey in?

  24. Boyhowdy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Difficult to decide who to start in the back this week:

    Martinez (lei) or Ryan (cry)

    TAA + 2 of Dallas (WOL), Saiss (lee), Lamptey (cry)

    Who do you reckon?

  25. ChickenTikkaMoSalah
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Kane or Son captain?

    1. gaurava1216
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Son for me

  26. gaurava1216
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Maupay or watkins ?

    1. ViperStripes
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Read the article above

  27. Qaiss
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Didn't notice the Digne injury, whats going on here?

  28. The Mighty Whites
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Start Saiss or C Taylor (I'll be starting Bamford)

  29. ViperStripes
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Who's the current 4.0m keep of choice?

    1. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I'd say Button in that he's the most likely to become a first choice.

  30. hustler7
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Stuck on my WC between these 2:

    A) Grealish & Maupay
    B) Trossard & Watkins

    Leaning towards A currently.

    1. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      A due to penalties... But B frees up funds

      1. hustler7
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah will go with A. Thanks!