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Learning from the Great and the Good 20/21 – Gameweek 28 and 29

“Curiouser and curiouser!”

Curious indeed! The last couple of weeks have seen us well and truly through the looking glass with an injury strewn Gameweek 28 and a fixture deficit in Gameweek 29 leading us all to some strange destinations.

The fantasy wonderland of xG, otherwise known as Brighton, prompted a double or even triple up in their defence, with a frightening amount of Dunk vs Veltman analysis, whilst some went as far as hitching their armband to the Trossard train.

The poor performance of Spurs in the North London Derby and then in Europe left us screaming “off with their heads”, Aubameyang should probably invest in a pocket watch if he to address his tardiness and we all chased Lingard down the rabbit hole.

The managers in The Great and The Good are the Scouts Neale Rigg and Joe Lepper, Pro Pundits (Mark SuthernsAzLateriserFabio Borges and Tom Freeman ), FPL “celebrities”, FPL GeneralMagnus Carlsen and finally from the Hall of Fame we have Ville RonkaMatthew Jones and Sean Tobin

OVERALL PERFORMANCE

learning-from-the-great-and-the-good-20-21-gameweek-28-and-29 1

Az must be grinning like a Cheshire Cat after his audacious Trossard transfer and captaincy saw him as top scorer during the blank Gameweek with 73 points.

This took him out of the bottom three for the first time since Gameweek 10, although the writer should point out that it’s not just about points when it comes to membership of The Great and The Good. For example, bench wizardry is frowned upon and FPL General was guilty of this misdemeanour this week and the FPL Gods clearly agree as he slumped to 36 points.

Meanwhile, Mark and Fabio continue to fight it out for top spot with only 3 points separating the top two and worth noting that another alumni of The Great and The Good, Lets Talk FPL Andy is just 30 points ahead of Mr Sutherns now.

Magnus Carlsen made the headlines with his Wildcard this week but he also stole all the tarts in Gameweek 28 as he brought in and captained Vardy, this made it checkmate for the chess champion as he was top scorer for the week.

Matthew Jones also played the right cards in Gameweek 28 as he picked the correct Brighton defender with Dunk’s 10 points helping him to 66,000 sized green arrow.

WILDCARD

The Wildcard picks of Magnus left many of us as confused as by the tale of the jabberwocky with no United, no City and no obvious plan for the fixture swing in Gameweek 31. However, early results suggest we should beware of this formidable threat as he scored 72 points this week.

The full ins and outs are below:-

IN – Sanchez, Forster, Dunk, Veltman, Rudiger, Bale, Lookman, Lingard, Watkins, Antonio

OUT – Martinez, Steer, Dias, Stones, Kilman, Son, Gundogan, Smith-Rowe, Vardy, Calvert-Lewin

He did still have his Free Hit in hand so perhaps surprising he did use that chip instead, there is no doubt his Seagull gambit paid off this week and he can easily move some of his cheap options to the bench.

His faith in Alexander-Arnold and Salah remains and I suspect he hopes their push for the Champions League spots will drive better performances out of them, generally that is a trend with his squad selection as the majority have something to play for as we come to the end of this Premier League Tea party. We will watch with interest how this plays out for Magnus over the coming weeks.

TRANSFERS

Let’s check in on the transfers over last couple of weeks.

Az

GW28 – None

GW29 – Odegaard, Trossard, Dunk (Stones, Salah, Gundogan)

Fabio Borges

GW28 – Veltman (Mee)

GW29 – Kane, Lingard, Dunk (Cancelo, Calvert-Lewin, Salah)

Joe Lepper

GW28 – None

GW29 – Lingard, Dunk (Salah, Mitchell)

FPL General

GW28 – Bale (Barnes)

GW29 – Dallas (Justin)

Lateriser

GW28 – Bale, Havertz (Barnes, Sterling)

GW29 – Lookman, Regulion (Gundogan, Maitland-Niles)

Magnus Carlsen

GW28 – Vardy (Ings)

GW29 – Wildcard

Mark Sutherns

GW28 – None

GW29 – Dunk, Cresswell, Sanchez (Cancelo, Alexander-Arnold, Johnstone)

Matthew Jones

GW28 – Dunk (Johnson)

GW29 – Bamford, Tierney (Cancelo, Calvert-Lewin)

Neale Rigg

GW28 – Veltman (Mee)

GW29 – Dunk, Cresswell, Dallas (Cancelo, Robertson, Periera)

Sean Tobin

GW28 – None

GW29 – Kane, Bale, Dallas, Dunk (Stones, Calvert-Lewin, Salah, Robertson)

Tom Freeman

GW28 – None

GW29 – Welbeck, Veltman (Diagne, Maitland-Niles)

Ville Ronka

GW28 – None

GW29 – Bale, Dallas (De Bruyne, Stones)

*transfers out are in brackets

Mad Hatter moves all over the place last weekend with Brighton players top of the list with Tom benefiting from both Veltman and Welbeck’s inclusion, Mark also gained an edge from a South coast defensive double.

The Trossard transfer gave Az the advantage in this Caucus race but Odegaard also continues to show a high level of performance which should soon be followed by FPL points.

Meanwhile, Fabio and Joe were the latest to chase the White Rabbit of Lingard’s return to form, I wonder whether they are now going to follow him on Instagram?

There was limited activity in Gameweek 28, the move for Vardy by Magnus the only stand out and FPL General, Lateriser swam in a pool of tears as Bale failed to capture any kind of form in the North London derby.

TEMPLATE

The template for The Great and The Good is as follows with number in brackets showing how many teams in which they appear:-

Martinez (5), Areola (4)

Dallas (9), Dunk (8), Dias (5), Digne (5), Cancelo/Veltman (4)

Raphinha (10), Gundogan (9), Son (8), Bruno Fernandes (7), Salah/Bale/Lingard (5)

Kane (12), Bamford (8), Watkins (6)

“We’re all mad here” is the cry of The Great and The Good as Veltman and Dunk inclusion now means they prefer a double Brighton defence to a City one as Stones makes way.

Bale joins but his time on the bench against Villa made his new owners as sad as Mock Turtle, elsewhere Lingard and Watkins are welcomed to the template.

CAPTAIN CALLS

learning-from-the-great-and-the-good-20-21-gameweek-28-and-29

FPL General continues to top the Captaincy poll for the season with an average of 15.5, but whilst his favoured picks have been Salah and De Bruyne his score would have been even more fantastical had he pick Bruno and Kane more often as they have averaged higher returns for him.

Clear to see that Salah remains a firm favourite, it’s worth reminding ourselves that Bruno has 11 double-digit returns compared to Mo’s five. Fabio, who is the form manager when it comes to the armband, averaging 15.6 in the last ten weeks, has captained the Portuguese playmaker the most this season of these managers and has obviously benefited.

Az’s decision to go for more differential picks has proved he is no Tweedle Dum, he has had eight different captains in the last ten weeks and as result has moved his average from 13.7 in the first half of the season to 15.0, maybe we all need to be more courageous in our armband selection?

CONCLUSION

“It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!”. The last few weeks have been dominated by a strong template with a sense of little progress despite a lot of effort.

However, times are changing with the blank giving many, particularly the Free Hitters, an advantage plus there is an upcoming fixture swing and the end of the season always brings a change in motivation with a growing number of teams starting to eye up their summer holidays.

Opportunity awaits us but we will need to be brave and now is a time for us to challenge our identity as an FPL manager. Are we happy with a good season or do we want to take a few risks? Do we want to be a Dormouse or a Mad March Hare? Or maybe it just comes down as to whether we pick Alonso or Azpilicueta on our Wildcards?

Anyway, that’s all from me for now and remember don’t have nightmares.

For those affected by any of the topics raised in the above article then you can find me on Twitter at https://twitter.com/Greyhead19

31 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Make or Break Punts
    Rotation's Alter Ego
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 29 days ago

    Big thanks to Greyhead for writing the Community Article above, excellent as always.

    Reading through it, he makes an interesting point in it - is it now time to be brave? As we come into the final stretch of the season, plenty of people still have high hopes of top 10k finishes and ML wins but are still keeping their cards close to the chest. If you're chasing, now might be the time to try some differentials to aim for excellence... but who?

    Will be interesting to hear your thinking: if a manager, who is aiming for a top finish but is still a bit off their goal, is looking for an inspired punt, who would you suggest?

    Which players do you think will break the template and finish strong?
    Would you depend on brave captaincy calls?

    1. Rotation's Alter Ego
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 29 days ago

      In my heart I want to back some Chelsea attacker but I'm struggling to pick one that I'd be brave enough to punt on... so perhaps I'll back another attacker with a good fixture swing in Neto.

      When I'm looking for these late-season punts I want players who have something to play for and strong underlying stats. Admittedly, Neto hardly ticks either of these boxes but he does have a fantastic run of fixtures with plenty of teams capable of rolling over plus passes the eye test with flying colours whenever I see him.

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 29 days ago

        Chelsea attackers are head-wrecker!

        Personally I've given Werner so many chances since picking with him instead of Kane in GW25 to try to not be a boring Templatista and also to "get in on the ground floor" ahead of his return to looking something like a competent goalscorer...

        To say he's been a disappointment would be an understatement...

        At this stage I almost want him to blank vs West Brom to make the swap to Nacho easier 🙂

        1. Mouldmaster
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 29 days ago

          I’ve been planning Bamford to Werner for a few weeks now, but giving it another week to see how they both look.

          It would be perfect if he hit some form as there are not too many great forwards around.

          1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
            • 14 Years
            3 years, 29 days ago

            He's just not adapted to the new environment at all - physically or mentally - just looks absolutely lost pretty much every game... last season in Germany was probably waaaayyy too easy for him & he's carried a bit of that "just have to turn up to score" mentality into this season which has killed him

            Liverpool in GW26 was the game where he could have came of age, but he fluffed every chance he got & it's just weighed more & more heavily on his mind ever since

            A blank vs. West Brom would almost be preferential to a 6-8 pointer which would just prolong the "will-he won't he" for another GW

            1. Rotation's Alter Ego
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 12 Years
              3 years, 29 days ago

              I have seen really good improvement from him in recent weeks though - not in front of goal (still looks like Bambi, just can't sort his feet and lacks any sort of composure or confidence) but his movement is so much better, really working the channels well with good sprints in behind.

              Not sure I'm a fan of TT's rotation plans, just stops the forwards building any sort of confidence in front of goal, one good game and the next they're sat on the bench.

              1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                • 14 Years
                3 years, 29 days ago

                Yeah from a physical work rate perspective it's hard to be critical of him to be fair, as he definitely still puts a shift in - but the class & killer instinct he had (or seemed to have) last year has simply disappeared, he's much more prey than predator in the attacking third now

                Tuchel's rotation may ultimately make the entirety of that attack a no-go zone for FPL - but they definitely have the fixtures in the short term to score goals if they want them

      2. Nanoelektronicar
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 29 days ago

        Problem with Neto for me is who do I left out if I get him: another big hitter to go along Bruno, Lingard, Gundogan or Jota?

        1. Rotation's Alter Ego
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 29 days ago

          Yeah my midfield has been stuffed all season, it's hard to fit them all in especially if the likes of Salah (who I'm still backing, perhaps stupidly), Son, KDB and co find form. Gundogan I think is droppable now, even though he looks fantastic value I sold him last week as I couldn't see him starting more than 3 games in the next 6 gameweeks.

          Finding a nice forward before he explodes would be ideal for my team now.

      3. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 29 days ago

        Think I'm gonna go with Mount as an attacker with Mendy and Dave in defence on my WC which is currently active...

        1. Flair
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 29 days ago

          Mount love baffles me. Has 2 non pen returns in 8 starts under Tuchel with unimpressive underlyings. Fixtures may be there but I'm not convinced he carries much threat on his own.

          1. G-Whizz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 29 days ago

            It's either him for that spot in my team or Jota and Liverpool's attacking doesn't instill any confidence in me at all...

            Looked at Grealish too and even with the prospect of a DGW down the line he doesn't look like he'll be getting back into my team as Villa's fixtures look terrible imo...

            Hopefully the fixture run will produce some attacking returns and if it doesn't, I'll hope their defence can keep bringing me decent points in the meantime and with £££ in the bank, won't take much to replace him if need be.

            Will see how it all pans out but happy to go with him for now...

    2. Hooky
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 29 days ago

      Redmond could be a good differential for the next 3 fixtures

      1. Rotation's Alter Ego
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 29 days ago

        Interesting shout, starting to find some form now. Needs to keep getting starts, had some very rocky minutes recently despite injuries to Ings and co.

        Southampton definitely not safe yet, have to think they target the next 3 to pick up the points they need so they're not sweating right up to the end. Hadn't thought about their assets.

    3. The 12th Man
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 29 days ago

      Im looking at Havertz and Mahrez.
      Mahrez might not play every game but he's in the same boat as all the City attackers. Might as well pick the one with lower ownership and on form.

      1. Rotation's Alter Ego
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 29 days ago

        Yeah great shouts.

        I go back and forth on Havertz, one game I see signs that he might be finally getting his confidence back and then the next he looks off again. Pretty sure Tuchel has been told he needs to get Havertz back feeling good so he can start 21/22 fresh and unburdened so I would expect a good few minutes. Cracking stats though, if only he could shoot as well as our left backs.

        1. The 12th Man
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 29 days ago

          Yeh the only trouble is fitting him in with other options such as Saka,Jota,Neto,Maddison,Barnes etc.
          At the moment my WC midfield is :- Fernandes,Havertz,Mahrez,Lingard,Raphinia
          With money itb to get to KDB/Salah/Auba if needed.

        2. The 12th Man
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 29 days ago

          Might be shrewd to pass on Havertz and double or triple on defence. With Alonso,Rudiger and Mendy.

          1. Rotation's Alter Ego
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 29 days ago

            Yeah hadn't given triple defence much thought actually. Next few teams all pose a good aerial threat so I can see why Tuchel would want Alonso starting, but I should have a pretty decent bench anyways to cover any rotation risks. Mendy and Rudi both very high on my watchlist.

    4. Kroos Kontrol
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 29 days ago

      At the risk of sounding dullard, they don't necessarily have to be wild punts.

      The issue with mega-differentials is that they either need to be very consistent, or have Antonio vs Norwich type of hauls, to be rank-rising, because 11-2-6-5 is an above-average set of returns but often around a 5 point gain over other good options. You need something like 11-8-5-7 to really rise.

      Many people will hold onto one City mid (not zero, not two; when the money lies in which side you lie on; the side that they'll win 5-0 as other teams go to the beach, or still only 1-0 or 2-0 with heavy rotation). Many won't return to TAA or Robertson. Mostly no one will go for Mane. Very few will go from Kane -> Vardy in 32. Even if people go for Leicester or Liverpool, how many will actually double-up on them, which that might be the route if they pick up form. There is real value in a Lingard + Antonio double-up given their run in after a 2-week rest. What about Everton or Villa in their double (remember Aston Villa 3-3 QPR)?

      Now, not to dismiss brave calls. Neto is one. Che Adams is another (goals in each of his last 3 games, and facing BUR, WBA and CRY). But for a reason, they're brave. These guys can very easily blank in 2 out of 3 games, at which point patience wears thin. Or they can do with Adams or Iheanacho have done in the last few.

      By all means, they are there to pursue. But I don't think they're the only way to break clear. GW38 of last season was defined by those who went against the grain by captaining De Bruyne (19 points) over Sterling (8 points).

      Quite recently, my biggest gains have come from captaining Cancelo in GW28, and owning Shaw + Rudiger + Digne in GW26. Last season post-restart, it was doing Salah --> Martial, then owning all 3 of KdB Sterling Mahrez when City kept scoring 5 each week. Early this season (though I missed it), it was owning Kane and Son both.

      No-one really was a major differential, but they got big rises. Sometimes the best options are those premium assets who just had a bad patch and everyone moved on to a shinier toy in that same team.

    5. Rover
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 29 days ago

      I've switched up my defence completely through my WC and subsequent FTs:

      GK: Pickford + Martinez (to be sold soon)
      Def: Alonso/Rudiger, Shaw, Dunk, Dawson (with an eye on shifting Dunk to Wolves/Pool)

      Also targeting Havertz, Vardy, Jota in the short-term.

    6. Greyhead
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 29 days ago

      Cheers RAE, the good news is I think there are plenty of differential picks. Iheanacho, Regulion, Mendy is still under 10% owned and for the brave Lacazette and Moura who is passing the eye test.

    7. 3 A
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 29 days ago

      Rudi to have Cs and a goal

  2. artvandelay316
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 29 days ago

    Who are people thinking to replace Salah?
    So far thinking:
    A) Mahrez
    B) Rashford

    My gut instinct is Mahrez as he has earned a lot of points when he plays. Yes, there is the bench rotation threat, but if he continues with previous form when he does play, it would still be way more points than other regulars are earning. Alternatively Rashford would then allow another City defender (even though I just got rid of Cancelo), but I can't see him netting that many points in comparison.

  3. Fit_to_drop
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 29 days ago

    To the people who not only were able to field 11 on GW29 but also to the select few that also did a bench boost and scored points off it, hats off to you. On a week where averages were so low, Im sure a 70+ score resulted in a massive rank boost. Well done for having the fortitude and foresight to plan such a move.

    1. Sharkytect
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 28 days ago

      What? Surely anyone who bench boosted will have a team that was compromised for the weeks before and after this gameweek.

  4. snow pea in repose
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 29 days ago

    These articles are always insightful and, I think, overlooked. Thanks...

    1. Greyhead
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 29 days ago

      Thank you Snow Pea - always nice to hear when someone enjoys them.

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 27 days ago

        Nice work!

  5. Alberto Tomba
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 27 days ago

    Great to have this back and as a double, thanks Greyhead.
    Keep coming back to the comments here as they make a lot of sense.

    It doesn't feel like there's a narrow pool of players who are the best options for the weeks ahead, which creates opportunity. For those of us who arent on top of stats and watching gametime atm, this sub forum is fab.

    1. Greyhead
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 26 days ago

      Thank you Alberto!