Line-up Lessons

Which Arsenal players are most likely to avoid rotation during season run-in?

Ahead of an expected rush of Wildcards in Gameweek 31, Anna Woodberry analyses which players stand the best chance of beating Mikel Arteta’s rotation policy at Arsenal.


Arsenal sit second of our Season Ticker over the next five Gameweeks when clubs are sorted by ease of fixture. Mikel Arteta’s side face the four bottom Premier League clubs over this period, with a tough home match against Everton sandwiched in the middle.

For Fantasy Premier League managers on their Wildcard, or those looking to maximise their transfer(s) this Gameweek, these fixtures could yield good returns.

That said, Arsenal’s form this season and their quarter-final matches against Slavia Prague must be considered when choosing which assets to go for. 

We have weighed up their credentials in this latest article by considering recent performances as well as investigating which players are the most likely to play consistent minutes in the Premier League between now and Gameweek 38.

Arsenal have not impressed as many would have expected during Arteta’s reign. The Gunners had a particularly poor start to the league and found themselves languishing in fifteenth place after eleven Premier League matches. However, Arteta has managed to pull them back up during the second half of the season, where they are now flittering between ninth and eleventh position.

Source: Wikipedia

This is in spite of a tough run of fixtures in their last ten games, which saw them play both Manchester clubs, Leicester City, Tottenham, West Ham and Liverpool. They picked up 12 points from a possible 30 from these matches: winning three, drawing three and losing four. 

Yet they only managed one clean sheet during this period (and have zero in their last six) while conceding 15 goals in total, six of which came in their last two matches against West Ham and Liverpool. 

On the flip side, though they only netted 14 goals during the same period, the team scored two or more goals in four of the ten games and are in the top five for goals scored over the past six matches. Given that their upcoming fixtures are against bottom-half clubs with poorer defensive records, this is something FPL managers will be hoping Arsenal could replicate over the next few Gameweeks.

EUROPEAN DISTRACTION

Who has the best and worst upcoming FPL fixtures? 14

The biggest headache for FPL managers, however, will be factoring in Arsenal’s Europa League campaign. Their quarter-final first leg against Slavia Prague takes place on Thursday evening, three days before their Gameweek 31 match against Sheffield United. Meanwhile, the second leg is scheduled for the following week, in between Gameweek 31 and Gameweek 32 (Fulham). 

If they get through this quarter-final, the semi-final fixtures are pencilled to take place in and around their Gameweek 34 and 35 matches against Newcastle United and West Bromwich Albion, meaning the Gunners are facing the prospect of nine games in 30 days. So, while Arsenal are playing the four bottom Premier League teams, this is happening in amongst their European campaign, raising concerns over how much Arteta might rotate his squad to cope with this demand.

This concern is increased when considering which competition the Spaniard might favour going into the final part of the season as the Europa League arguably represents the best chance for the club to make it into the Champions League next season.

The Gunners are ten points off fourth place with eight Premier League matches to go but are battling a host of rivals to get there. Aston Villa, Everton, Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea are all above Arteta’s team, so the odds are stacked against them to win a European qualifying spot through domestic channels.

This could have ramifications for Arteta’s team selection in the Premier League over the next few Gameweeks. He utilised fringe players in the group stages of the Europa League, keeping his main stars – Kieran Tierney (£5.3m), Alexandre Lacazette (£8.2m) and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.4m) – for the league. This may change now we are reaching the latter stages of the competition, especially if this is Arsenal’s best chance of playing in Europe next year. 

TIME FOR THE ‘BIG GUNS’

If we compare the Arsenal players’ minutes for the group-stage and knock-out matches of the Europa League this season, we can already see a shift towards the more experienced group. 14 players – Bernd Leno (£5.0m), Tierney, Hector Bellerin (£5.0m), Gabriel (£4.9m), David Luiz (£5.4m), Thomas Partey (£4.9m), Martin Odegaard (£6.0m), Dani Ceballos (£4.7m), Granit Xhaka (£5.2m), Emile Smith Rowe (£4.2m), Bukayo Saka (£5.2m), Aubameyang, Gabriel Martinelli (£4.9m) and Willian (£7.5m) – have all featured more in the knock-out stages than they did during the group matches.

This is also reflected when looking at the starting line-ups. Leno, Bellerin, David Luiz, Gabriel, Xhaka and Aubameyang have started all four knock-out games so far, with Tierney, Ceballos, Saka, Odegaard and Smith Rowe starting three. Therefore, we would expect Arteta to turn to these players again for the two legs against Slavia Prague. 

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PREMIER LEAGUE

The issue this poses for FPL managers is whether these players will feature in the Premier League games either side of those quarter-final matches. Though hard to predict, we can see which players started a high number of league games in and around the Round of 32 and Round of 16 matches against Benfica and Olympiacos in February and March. 

Leno, David Luiz, Tierney, Xhaka, Saka, Odegaard and Aubameyang were the only players to start four or more games in the league, suggesting they would be the best bets to play against Sheffield United and Fulham. In contrast, stalwarts Bellerin and Gabriel only started two games each, so might see their league minutes similarly restricted if they play on Thursday.

However, injuries could change this completely. David Luiz looks set to miss the next couple weeks after undergoing knee surgery, leaving Gabriel (£4.9m) to shoulder the principal centre-back burden. In his absence, Arteta could turn to either Rob Holding (£4.2m) and/or Pablo Marí (£4.4m) to partner Gabriel in the Europa League and Premier League games. Both are budget-value defenders who could easily fill the fourth or fifth spots in any FPL team.

In addition, Arsenal fear that Tierney could be ruled out for a similar period to Luiz after limping off in the first half against Liverpool in Gameweek 30. If true, this leaves Cedric Soares (£4.6m) and Saka as the Gunners’ left-back options since Sead Kolasinac went on loan to Schalke in January. With this uncertainty, it means Leno is probably the most reliable way into Arsenal’s defence.   

In terms of midfield and attack though, Odegaard and Aubameyang are the safest picks, but whether they represent the best value for money compared to other players in those price brackets remains to be seen. They could be good differential picks if they start though.

For FPL managers feeling a bit risky, Nicolas Pépé (£7.6m) and Eddie Nketiah (£5.4m) were frequently used in the group stages of the Europa League to give the more established players rest. Arteta could utilise the two again but in the league this time, especially if the tie against Slavia Prague is still close after the first leg.

941 Comments Post a Comment
  1. TeddiPonza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Play one this week:

    Shaw (tot)
    Watkins (liv)
    Raphinha (mci)
    Coufal (LEI)

    Thanks

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Watkins.

      1. Big_Andy_GAWA
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        I'd go with the same myself, yeah.

      2. im1974
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        What is your rank? You offer a lot of “advice” that probably should be ignored

        1. Big_Andy_GAWA
          • 12 Years
          2 years, 11 months ago

          Who are you talking to?!

          1. Lord.
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            2 years, 11 months ago

            I think he’s talking about Camry, who has linked his team, and has an excellent track record (including four top 10k finishes, and one in the top 100), to add credibility to the advice regularly shared on this forum.

    2. FPL_DON
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      shaw

  2. DB_00
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Seeing a lot people going for Leicester players this gw but is no one worried about their cup semi before their game in gw32? What if it goes to ET and then he rotates in that fixture for example?

    1. DB_00
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Or even worse, if there’s an injury in that game itself, it comes after the deadline so wouldn’t be able to do anything about it either

  3. dshv
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    WC, wainting for advices

    Mendy (button)
    taa diaz coady (rudiger mitchell)
    Son bruno salah jota neto
    Kane iheanacho (davis)

    - thinking about dias or shaw .. shaw is not potential cs against spurs ..
    - advices please

    * no other chips
    * 0.4 itb

  4. fusen
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    I sort of want to try Lacazette on my WC, especially against Sheffield but the potential lack of minutes is a real worry

    1. Ange Ball
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      I have him I never knew he has lack mins

  5. Cheeto__Bandito
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Bench One

    A) Watkins vs liv
    B) Raphinha vs City

    1. TeddiPonza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Raph I think

  6. bigdip
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    So WC Team 1 or Team 2?

    1. Mendy Forster
    TAA, Rudiger, Coady, Stones, Shaw
    Fernandes, Gundo, Son, Jota, Neto
    Kane, Ihenacho, DCL

    OR

    2. Mendy Forster
    PHILLIPS, Rudiger, Coady, KONSA, Shaw
    Fernandes, Gundo, Son, Jota, SALAH
    Kane, Ihenacho, WEL BECK/SILVA

    1. Big_Andy_GAWA
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Is Rudiger the better pick over Christensen?

    2. FPL_DON
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      would love Gundo, maybe JLingz?

      1. FPL_DON
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        lose***

  7. ryacoo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Thoughts on Sterling captain this week on WC?

    Planning to sell him on to Son next week

    1. Ruth_NZ
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Dumbass move but the general idea is OK.

      1. ryacoo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Lol what

        1. Ruth_NZ
          • 9 Years
          2 years, 11 months ago

          The general idea of dealing with GW31 captaincy in that way is OK but Sterling(c) would require a number of dominos to fall just right. Sure, he'll probably start and if so that would be hurdle #1 jumped but he'd still have to deliver something worthwhile, which is hurdle #2.

          The guy below expecting 4 City goals is in fantasy land. City, with a much-changed team, will want to control that game above all and will be entirely happy with a safe 1-0 if they can get it. In addition, Sterling hasn't exactly been tearing it up even when he has played, his poor form is what got him onto Pep's naughty step in the first place.

          For the manoeuvre to work, Sterling has to bounce back with a bang exactly when you want him to. There's nothing to suggest he will and that's why I see it as a dumbass move. 🙂

    2. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Sounds good if on WC, Sterling has high upside, probably 4 ManCity goals in that game and he is likely to start. Sterling or Salah best option this week. I have neither and wondering if I should WC or not, see below, what would you do in my shoes?

  8. Big_Andy_GAWA
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Hi Folks,

    Rudiger or Christensen: who is the best pick? Who is more likely to start in Premier League games?

    Cheers.

    1. SAKA AND EMILE SMITH ROWE
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Gone for Christensen as both were benched vs WBA but Christensen came on after Thiago Silva was sent off

  9. S.Kuqi
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Thoughts about this move?

    Kdb -> Jota
    Bamford -> Aguero (c)

    In gw32 Aguero -> Vardy

  10. Mr. O'Connell
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Don't like the idea of booking in transfers, but I really don't fancy going into Spurs v United with Kane, Bruno and Son (yes I'm aware they all hauled in the reverse fixture).

    Spurs dgw in 32 making the wildcard feeling a bit like a poisoned chalice this week.

  11. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Mendy Meslier
    Dias Alonso Digne Coufal Veltman
    Bruno Gundo Jota Raphinha Lingard
    Kane DCL Bamford
    Stobbornness not to WC? Im somehow thinking about the possible DGW35 and use WC then to load up if 6-8 teams have DGW. Outside of too many Leeds I dont think its too bad. No Salah or Leicester is a worry. I will get Son next week for Gundo.
    So, WC or not to WC??

    1. FPL_DON
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      similar team to you and I hit the button, just felt like it had the most value now in terms of getting in future template players early.

    2. ryacoo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      That teams looks in fairly decent shape still tbf - I'd probably only make 4-5 changes on WC so might be worth holding until the GW35/36 schedule is confirmed

  12. JJeyy
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Wow look at city home defensive record recently. Can see Leeds getting at least 2

    1. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      At least.

      1. JJeyy
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Raphinha to score big

  13. FPL_DON
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Thoughts on keeping Bamford on WC? No other options really excite me other than my other two - Kane and Ineacho and Leeds can score against anyone.

  14. FPLMACKEM
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Current WC draft.

    Ederson, Forster
    Coady, Holding, Rudiger, Phillips, 4.9?
    Salah, Jota, Bruno, Neto, Son
    Bamford, Kane, Iheanacho

    What are peoples thoughts on this?

    I have gone a bit cheap in defence but I would feel very uncomfortable going without Kane, Salah, Bruno and Son.

  15. House Frey Wedding Planner
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    What's the best play here?

    A - Salah & Struijk out, Jota and TAA in
    B - Vardy & Jorginho out, Nacho & Jota in
    C - DCL & Jorginho out, Jota & Davis (4.2) in

    Martinez, 3.9
    Cancelo Dias Rudiger Struijk Shaw
    Salah Bruno Gundogan Mount Jorginho
    Kane Vardy DCL

    2FT, 0.7itb

    Cheers!

    1. Lav
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      B

  16. Ange Ball
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Currently on WC.

    Who should I have for one week punt to swap over to Son following week.

    Salah or KDB? Currently got Jota but do sees Villa and Leeds games being high scoring.

    1. Lav
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Raz. Was a sub at the weekend, didnt play today. He is set to start surely. Mahrez has not had a rest recently, Phil played the 90 today. If you want to protect rank then I guess KDB.

  17. Lav
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    18.8m to fill out four spots on WC and its tough. Want Raz on a 1 week punt before downgrade to Son for 32...

    Mendy Forster
    Shaw Stones x x Phillips
    Salah Bruno Raz Jota JLingz
    Kane x x

  18. Herman Toothrot
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Liking the idea of Sterling for this week before switching to Son.

    Current WC:

    Mendy
    TAA // Rudiger // Coady
    Salah // Sterling // Bruno // Jota // Lingard
    Kane // Nacho

    Foster // Vydra // Holding // Amartey

    Alternatively, ignore Sterling and keep Son to allow me:

    Sterling to Son
    Amartey to Shaw (Lots in defence)
    Vydra to Fabio Silva (Punt)

    Thoughts?

    1. Herman Toothrot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Coady to Saiss too

    2. Lav
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Have the exact same midfield on my WC + Kane. Different defense though. Coady is a shout and a player I may consider. You reckon TAA is still good even after today?

  19. Avery
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Best (C)aptain options - for this week

    A. KDB
    B. Bruno
    C. Kane
    D. Jota
    E. Vardy
    F. Maddison

    KDB most likely rested or limited mins after tonight’s showing right?

    1. Lav
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      G. Raz

    2. Hits from the Bong
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      H. Salah
      I. Lindgard

  20. Alcapaul
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    My team this week is:

    Pope
    Rudiger Shaw Dias
    Jota Gundo Bruno Son Lingard
    Bamford Kane

    Do you think it's worth a -4 to do Watkins out for Iheanacho? I would bench Bamford.

    1. FPL Theorist
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      No, Leicester's good fixtures don't start until 32.

  21. Lav
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Havent had Lingard yet this season, and wanted him on a WC, but I might even wait longer now. Leicester, Newcastle, Chelsea in their next three. I think it will be tough, even Newcastle away as they fight for survival. Reckon Neto could be an enabler for a midfield of Salah Bruno Raz Jota. Then Raz to Son and reshift team as we close out the season...

    1. Lav
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      This is me just typing my thoughts out lol

    2. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Fitness dependent, he’s the first name on the team sheet for me. Team has been solid and supplying chances, if Antonio is fit, he’s going to keep scoring

  22. Hits from the Bong
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Should I be wildcarding this week? I’m so undecided. I’m planning on TC in 32 and BB in 35. Took a -4 for this team, but now Antonio is a doubt.. Any input appreciated.

    Martinez Forster
    Stones AWB Dunk Dallas Coufal
    Salah Bruno Son Lindgard Jota
    Kane Antonio Bamford

  23. Letsgo!
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Do you think foden or kdb will start vs leeds?
    What about jota chances of starting vs aston?

    1. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Both
      Doubt it but could do, I’ll take 30

  24. Champions League Varane
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Thoughts on Gundo and Antonio to Kelechi and Jota -4? With exact cash. Antonio news sounds promising and Gundo has Leeds? Help would be appreciated thanks a lot.

    1. ExpressoMySonny
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      I would hold antonio is there any strikers you could move?

      1. Champions League Varane
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        He’s injured mate !

        1. The Suspended One
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          2 years, 11 months ago

          I wouldn’t hit Antonio out; he wasn’t seriously injured and has plenty of time to be declared fit. Hits are cancer late in the season

    2. Hits from the Bong
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Yeah, I would. Just done Gundo to Jota, he could well get a monster haul versus Leeds but can’t be doing with the roulette

      1. Champions League Varane
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Exactly that! Thanks would have to move tonight which is a shame

  25. Simon69
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Any love for an Aguero (c) punt? About 70 points behind the ML leader... Reckon I need to make a move soon.

    1. ExpressoMySonny
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Great shout

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Why not Jesus? Didn't play tonight.

      1. Simon69
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Believe the holy one played 30 mins but ya... Still likely to feature vs Leeds!

        1. Hits from the Bong
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 11 months ago

          I’d rather an overweight and unfit Aguero than Jesus any day of the week

          1. The Suspended One
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            2 years, 11 months ago

            This

      2. dunas_dog
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        He played - came on after 59 minutes for Bilva

    3. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Two pieces of advice to live by:

      No glove, no love

      No knee cartilage, no C

  26. ExpressoMySonny
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Raph or Gundo for Jota? Have no free hit and also have KDB in my midfield

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      I'd rather have Raphinha than Jota, tbh.

      1. Hits from the Bong
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Man City, Liverpool, Man Utd next 3 though

        1. ExpressoMySonny
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          2 years, 11 months ago

          Leaning towards getting rid of Gundo because of the rotation risk and gives me 11 for the blanks for gw33

    2. The White Pele
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Raph

    3. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      I did Raph, but I will buy back

  27. The White Pele
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    considering FH this week from :

    Fabianski
    Rudiger Veltman Coufal
    Bruno son Bale gundo Raphinha
    Kane Antonio

    DDG Watkins Konsa Dallas ,1ft, 4m itb

    to: Leno
    Alonso Rudiger Cedric
    Sterling Mount Salah Jota
    Aguero Ings Laca
    3.9 Gundogan Vestergaard Phillips
    thoughts? save for later?

    1. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Save

  28. The Suspended One
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    I wonder how it is that so many people identified this as the week to WC.. so much uncertainty and rotation. You guys know you aren’t required to do what “pundits” say, right?

    Monkey see?

  29. Lav
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    TAA or Salah to pair with Jota? Want all three, but it is impossible given I am punting on Raz for one week.

    1. The Suspended One
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 11 months ago

      Why? I think Peps messaging has been loud and clear...

      Mahrez same risk, much better form/ value

      1. Lav
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 11 months ago

        Raz did not play in the UCL and was benched at the weekend with a small cameo in which he got an assist. He plays given Pep going on about rotation. Phil played the 90.

        1. The Suspended One
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          2 years, 11 months ago

          It’s called Pep Roulette, not Pep takes turns

          Sterling has not played well this year and his game time has suffered; started 2 of last 6 in the prem since Pep went on his rant

          1. Hits from the Bong
            • 5 Years
            2 years, 11 months ago

            Yes, this

  30. Vazza
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 11 months ago

    Thoughts please gents

    A. Ayling >> Robbo (free)
    B. Veltman, Gundo >> TAA, Neto (4pt hit)
    C. Veltman, Watkins/Antonio >> TAA, Nacho (4pt hit)
    D. Something else

    Current team

    ——————Areola——————
    ———Veltman Dias Stones———
    —Bruno Salah Gundo Son Jota—
    ————-Antonio* Kane————-

    Bench: Forster, Watkins, Ayling, Struijk

    FH available for GW33