Pro Pundits

Is Antonio a keep or sell and is Alonso a good Chilwell replacement in FPL?

We are now approaching the business end of the season and the Gameweeks will come thick and fast. As Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers, we need to react and absorb information over a short period. There is no room for passengers.

Speaking of passengers, I want to start off this article talking about FPL’s top-scoring forward – Michail Antonio (£8.2m).

It’s just one goal in the last six matches for the West Ham United striker, so let’s have a look at his numbers.

MICHAIL ANTONIO: KEEP OR SELL?

Above: Forwards sorted by expected goal involvement (xGI) in Gameweeks 1-6

Antonio notched 47 of his 63 points in the first six Gameweeks, despite missing one game due to suspension.

He topped the numbers for forwards in that period, with a whopping 21 shots in the box, 11 chances created and seven big chances. He was also top for expected goal involvement (xGI) (5.21) by some distance.

Above: Forwards sorted by expected goal involvement (xGI) in Gameweeks 7-12

A look at the last six weeks sees a significant drop in his numbers. While his chance creation has actually gone up (12 from 11), his shot volume has dropped massively (10 shots in the box vs 21 earlier). There have been only two big chances, too, which sees his xGI fall to just 2.39, less than half of his Gameweek 1-6 total. Again, it’s worth mentioning he played one game fewer in the previous sample. 

We discussed the merits of premium wing-backs in our latest episode of The FPL Wire. With Chilwell’s injury, you can easily substitute Alonso into the conversation. I highly recommend watching it. 

Good luck and see you next week. 

466 Comments Post a Comment
  1. AD105
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Chilly/Mbuemo/Foden > James/Gallagher/Jota for a -4?

    1. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Hard to say no. What is your concern here?

    2. Fish up a tree
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Would hold the Mbeumo to Gallagher move as Mbeumo has a better fixture for me this week

    3. TheDragon
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Personally I don’t think the Mbuemo -> Gallagher move is worth the -4

  2. TheTinman
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Can anyone confirm the situation with regards to prices for Chilly and Alonso?

    When do we expect Chilly to drop?

    Is it correct that Alonso is price locked until he plays this week, having had a red flag? I think somebody mentioned this previously.

    1. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Courtesy of Hazz to one of my posts earlier today:

      When a player is injured (0% chance of playing), suspended or on loan his price can still change in value. However, once his status has changed again his price will be "locked". Here are Alonso's recent status changes: Injured! Alonso #CHE - [Ankle injury - Unknown return date] - #FPLSU https://twitter.com/FPLStatus/status/1456622646708293632 Now Available! #FPLSU Alonso #CHE [+ Others] https://twitter.com/FPLStatus/status/1461665847219568648? Alonso's price will unlock at the start of next Gameweek. Usually, a player’s price remains locked when he becomes available to play in the immediate GW after returning from a suspension/injury layoff and FPL notifies his status as 100% fit for the next match. This simply means that a player can change in price when he is injured, suspended or goes off on a loan. But, once his status changes, prices will be locked until the start of the next GW. Source: https://allaboutfpl.com/2021/07/fpl-price-changes-explained-fpl-guide/ Therefore that is why if you click Alonso's name on FPL Statistics is says "Unlocks: 27 Nov 11:20 AM, GMT"

    2. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Alonso is locked, on fplstats you can see it if you click on the plus icon, it says he unlocks on 27 Nov at 11.20 (so just after the game updates once the deadline is up essentially)

      Chilwell is dropping fast so he's likely to drop at least once before deadline, likelihood is the severity of his injury will be revealed tomorrow officially so he'll then be red flagged which will mean there's a higher sales threshold that will need to be met for him to drop. If he manages to survive without dropping tonight, it's possible that that could hold off a drop until after Saturday but I'd say that's unlikely

  3. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Is Livra/Foden to Cancelo/Bilva worth -4?

    Sanchez Steele
    TAA, James, Rudiger, White, Livra
    Salah, Jota, Foden, Raphina, Sissoko
    Kane, Jimenez, Broja

    1.2 in the bank

    1. JBG
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      If you did Livra to Cancelo, would you start him over Foden?

  4. dshv
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Can plat Antonio over Foden and safe foden.. what do you suggest??

    1. Cruyff's Eleven
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      You stop drinking?

  5. Gizzachance
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Thoughts appreciated
    2ft. 1.0 itb

    Ransdale
    James cancelo chillwell •
    Salah son saka raph•
    Toney Vardy Antonio
    Foster livramento luiz • manquillo

    Raph to jota
    Chillwell to alonso /rudiger
    To get taa would have to downgrade somewhere ?
    Many thanks

    1. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Chillwell + Antonio > TAA + King/Dennis/4.5
      Chilwell + Saka > TAA + fodder

      1. Gizzachance
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Cheers for input
        I have d luiz as fodder, and injured currently, bit of a dilemma!
        First option is one I considered also
        Thanks

    2. Not again Shirley
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      What’s wrong with Saka?

      1. Gizzachance
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Nothing, has a good fixture this week, will be keeping , cheers

  6. tbos83
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    0ft, 0.0 itb. Can I limp through on this or would you take a -4 somewhere?

    Sanchez
    TAA Cancelo White
    Salah Gallagher ESR Benny
    Toney Ronaldo Antonio

    Steele Livra Gray* Chilwell*

    1. Gizzachance
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Ronaldo and free up funds

  7. highsguy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Hi all, I did Azpi to Chilwell before the injury… 1FT left, should I hold?

    James TAA Cancelo
    Saka Salah Mbeumo Raph
    Kane Toney Antonio

    Foster Duffy Brownhill Chilwell

    (Also - play Duffy or Antonio?)

    1. Jimmers
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I'd hold. Having 2 FT for the gameweek starting Tuesdy could be handy.
      I'm starting Antonio - he's due. 🙂

      1. highsguy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Yep thinking the same, nice one

      2. Not again Shirley
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Maybe due not not necessarily against City away

  8. KUNingas
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    2FTs and 2.7 ITB

    A) Mbeumo/Raphinha -> Jota
    B) Dias + Brownhill/Mbeumo/Raphinha -> Alonso + Jota

    Ramsdale
    TAA, Cancelo, Dias, James
    Salah, Son, Raphinha, Mbeumo
    Toney, Hwang

    Foster, Antonio, Livramento, Brownhill

    1. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Mbeumo > Jota

    2. Konstaapeli
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A. Mbeumo

  9. Pegboy
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Is Dias still nailed? Do we know why he was benched against Everton?

    1. Kryptonite666
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I think he was rested for PSG. He’s still first choice. Although with Laporte and Stones, he could miss out an odd game every once in a while.

    2. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      How can he be nailed if he was benched?

  10. Konstaapeli
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    I've backline of TAA - Cancelo - Chilwell - James - Livra.

    Chilly to Alonso with my FT, right?

    1. TheDragon
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      It’s the FPL community approved transfer it seems.

      Reguillon is worth considering (and Rudiger)

    2. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Depends on the rest of the team. I'd consider rolling the FT.

      1. Konstaapeli
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Have yellow Foden and Raph in there so might need some depth.

  11. C'mon the Fylde
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    I have James.
    Alonso or Reguilon for Chilwell?

    1. Konstaapeli
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Alonso for me.

  12. cigan
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Who would you prioritize getting this week, Cancelo or James?

    Thinking Cancelo cos of better fixture + I already have Rudiger

    1. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Tough one. Probably Cancelo, as long as you can get James in next GW.

      1. cigan
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Would have done both but 0.1 short of my ideal move White+Semedo+Foden > Them 2 + Gallagher (-4) so I'm looking at getting James next week for a hit (though not entirely sure who is the other player to make way)

    2. cigan
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Also, who would you sell first, White or Semedo?

      Both are likely to be gone for the above mentioned pair anyway so it's only a matter of a week or 2 - reckon Semedo simply because I prefer his next 2 fixtures

    3. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I swapped Dias to Cancelo earlier this week mainly because I owned Chilwell, now getting both!

      Would get Cancelo first yes

    4. The Mentaculus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Arguably James has the better fixture. Keep Semedo over White for next 2

      1. cigan
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Hard to disagree tbf - would probably get James first if I didn't have Rudiger already

  13. pakornk
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Reguilon or Alonso?

    1. Van der Faart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Probably Alonso until we see more of Reguilon, easy switch thereafter anyway

  14. Kryptonite666
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Is Foden a doubt this week ?

    Will need to transfer Chillwell to Alonso for free if yes.

    1. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      He's a doubt but we'll hopefully know more soon.

  15. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    A. Jesus & Mbeumo
    B. Bernardo & Benteke (-4)
    C. Mbeumo & Benteke

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      D. Gallagher & Jesus (-4)

      1. Konstaapeli
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        This one.

    2. The Mentaculus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B

  16. Well you know, Triffic
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Tempted to jump off Foden as theres quite a lot of games coming up for City and I'm not sure he's immune from Pep roulette.

    Jota is the obvious replacement.

    1. The Mentaculus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Doubt there'll be that much difference in mins between Foden/Jota, assuming Foden knock is minor

      1. Lanley Staurel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Not sure. Jota should get 70+ but Foden might just sit this game out completely.

        1. The Mentaculus
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 2 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Yeah, this GW, but I think Harry means over the next month or ao

          1. Lanley Staurel
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            Ah OK then yes agree with Foden

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      If fit, I think he is clear first choice in the 11. However, I am tempted to move to Jota as it allows me funds to upgrade Duffy to Alonso in GW14

  17. Van der Faart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Any need for a hit here?

    Doing Dias to James as one move.

    Sanchez/Foster
    Dias* TAA Rudiger (Duffy Livra)
    Salah Gallagher Raph Jota (Bissouma)
    Hwang Kane Antonio

    1. The Mentaculus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Gtg

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Depends what hits you are considering

      1. Van der Faart
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Possibly Antonio to someone to free up funds for Cancelo next week. Not worth a -8 to get him this week I feel.

        1. Tonyawesome69
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          yeah not worth the -8

  18. Kryptonite666
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Would you roll or transfer Chilwell to Alonso ?

    Guiata
    TAA Cancelo James Chilwell* (Livramento)
    Salah Son Foden ESR (Mbeumo)
    Vardy Toney (Perica)

    If Foden is out as well, will need to play Livramento against Liverpool which isn’t great.

    1. Van der Faart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Do the move yeah

    2. The Mentaculus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I'd make the move even for -4 if playing Livramento v Liverpool is the other option

      1. cigan
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Yup

    3. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Depends if it is for free or a hit. For free then yes. I would lean towards playing Mbeumo over taking a hit to bring in Alonso v United.

      1. The Mentaculus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 2 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        I think Mbeumo is filling in for Foden already

        1. Tonyawesome69
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Yeah you are right, take the hit

  19. internal error
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Good to see Bamford training, as a Raphinha owner

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Not part of group training yet but definitely positive

  20. N00B
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    I have James, Reguilon and Kane.
    2 FT and no money left itb.

    And I think I will do:
    - Livramento and Son out
    - Alonso and Jota in

    So:
    A) Do it! No brainer, bring Goalonso and mini Salah in your squad.
    B) Dont't do it moron! Son has good fixtures and never sell Livragod.

    1. The Mentaculus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

      Im also ditching Son early

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Probably B. but tough one

    3. cigan
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Might just do the Jota move

    4. TopBinFc
        2 years, 4 months ago

        B, Son could haul next few weeks

    5. tbos83
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      If I fh does it undo all my transfers this week? I've had a shocker

      1. C'mon the Fylde
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        All the transfers you made this week, will become free, as part of the free hit.

        Your team will revert to your original team after this gw is complete.

      2. Tonyawesome69
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Yes it will undo the moves and revert back to the team in the previous GW

      3. The Mentaculus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 2 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Haha I'm considering the same. Made early moves & now stuck with injured Chilwell & Foden.

        Only other thing to consider (as I was advised) is that you wont have Free Hit for Blank GW

        1. tbos83
          • 3 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Yeah this is my worry - I've ended up taking a -8 to undo my Chilly transfer and still don't like my team :-/

    6. C'mon the Fylde
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A) Mbeumo to Jota -4
      B) Davis to Jiminez -4
      C) Save

      Ramsdale
      Cancelo TAA James Alonso
      ESR Raphinha Salah Son Mbeumo
      Toney

      Foster Wilson Livramento Davis

      3.8m itb

      1. cigan
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        No hits needed imo

        1. C'mon the Fylde
          • 8 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Cheers.

      2. TopBinFc
          2 years, 4 months ago

          No hits, nice team

      3. CapK
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Slightly confused about price rises;

        if im 0.1m short of chillwell > james, when kane / jota + maybe some others rise tonight, is it possible i make that 0.1 up in team value and then am able to do chillwell > james tomorrow (of course without chillwell or anyone else dropping or james rising etc)

        Thanks for any insight

        1. GreennRed
          • 12 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          No. You need Chilwell's price to rise, which won't happen.

        2. Tonyawesome69
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          You will only get that 0.1 increase to the budget if you sell that particular player that gets the price rise and it increased selling price.

          Go to Transfer tab on FPL then change from Pitch to Player view to see the Selling Price (SP)

        3. CapK
          • 3 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Thanks all

          Guess im going alonso for now then

      4. ZTF
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Maddison to ESR or hold? Feel like Mads is surely due another start with Leicester looking so poor, and it’s a good fixture

        1. Tonyawesome69
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Lose Maddison

        2. TopBinFc
            2 years, 4 months ago

            Perhaps hold for one more week

          • GreennRed
            • 12 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            Yes.

            1. ZTF
              • 9 Years
              2 years, 4 months ago

              Yes to the move?

        3. UnitednationsXI
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Best moves here worth 2ft and 1m

          Ramsdale
          Taa James Cancelo --- Duffy Livramento
          Salah Jota Foden Mbeumo -- brownhill
          Kane Antonio Toney

          1. Tonyawesome69
            • 5 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            Upgrade Duffy to rotate 1st sub and roll 2nd FT

          2. House Frey Wedding Planner
            • 5 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            Duffy and Toney to Alonso and Hwang/King

        4. TeddiPonza
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Got 1FT and 0m in bank. Midfield of Salah Son Jota Raphinha Foden.

          Roll transfer or ship out Foden if he is out? Antonio is currently my 1st sub.

          Thanks.

          1. Tonyawesome69
            • 5 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            Roll

          2. The Mentaculus
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 2 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            Play Antonio unless Foden injury turns out to be more than a little knock

        5. Cruyff's Eleven
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Why is Jiminez not an option to replace Antonio, with a swap to Josh King in GW16?

          1. Tonyawesome69
            • 5 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            He is but we tend to pick long term options, minimum 4GWs.

            1. Cruyff's Eleven
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              2 years, 4 months ago

              Ah, fair enough. Yes. Jiminez for 2 weeks, then move on...

              Thanks mate.

          2. The Mentaculus
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 2 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            He can be if you're looking very short term. Probably want to move him out again before Liverpool, City, Chelsea

          3. Black Knights
            • 12 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            He is an option.

          4. GreennRed
            • 12 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            He's a good option. Josh King is Josh King though, not in the way that Ronaldo is Ronaldo.

            1. Cruyff's Eleven
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              2 years, 4 months ago

              There's a 6 million difference in price. Exactly in the way that 6 million is 6 million (i.e. the price of one Gallagher)

            2. Pompel
              • 10 Years
              2 years, 4 months ago

              Exactly - confidence player , and now he has it ,until he faces another draught.

              1. GreennRed
                • 12 Years
                2 years, 4 months ago

                Played 10, scored in 2. There's better forward picks around 6m even at Watford.

        6. Erez Avni
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Ramsdale
          TAA Rudy Cancelo White
          Salah Raphi Foden Son Mbuemo
          Jimenez

          Foster Antonio Livra Broja

          A. Foden to Jota
          B. Foden & White to James & ESR/Gallagher (-4)

        7. dbeck
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          g2g?

          Guita
          Alonso James Trent Cancelo
          Mbeumo Salah Foden Jota Son
          Toney

          Foster Antonio Livra Davis

          Plan is to move mbeumo to bowen to double up on west ham for the fix swing, potentially funded by Toney to King at GW16

        8. FF Dirtbag
          • 12 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Hows it looking? Ready for the weekend?

          Steele
          Rudiger James Cancelo
          Salah Jota Bernardo Gallagher
          Jimenez Antonio Ronaldo

          Sanchez; Livra, Williams, sissoko