Spot the Differential
10 December 2021 1458 comments
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Gameweek 16 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Everton, West Ham United and Manchester United, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

ABDOULAYE DOUCOURE

  • FPL ownership: 1.6%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: cry | che | LEI | bur | NEW

Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.4m) has impressed under Rafael Benitez this season, bagging two goals and four assists in just 11 starts. As a result, the 28-year-old is averaging 4.6 points per match, which is more than team-mate Demarai Gray (£5.5m) and only fractionally below Jarrod Bowen’s (£6.5m) 4.7 total.

Having missed a run of four matches from Gameweek 9 onwards with a broken metatarsal, he has since returned to Everton’s engine room alongside Allan (£4.5m). During that period, he has registered six shots in the box, a figure only Diogo Jota (£8.0m), Mohamed Salah (£13.1m), Hakim Ziyech (£7.3m) and Gabriel Martinelli (£5.2m) can better amongst all midfielders.

The Toffees have been plagued with injury problems all season, with some of their most influential players – including Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.9m) – all spending time on the sidelines at various points. However, the crisis does now seem to be easing, which coincided with an important 2-1 win over Arsenal on Monday night, when Doucoure was a little unfortunate not to produce an assist, with Richarlison’s (£7.4m) goal from his pass narrowly ruled out for offside by VAR.

Now, they take on a Crystal Palace side who have had real issues defending set-pieces in 2021/22, which could be good news for Doucoure, one of Everton’s key aerial threats, while between Gameweeks 18-26, they sit top of our Season Ticker for ease of fixture.

Doucoure was predominantly used in a deeper midfield role last season, but has thrived after being handed more attacking responsibility by his new manager, and could be an effective differential in the coming weeks.

VLADIMIR COUFAL

Is it time to sell Antonio and Benrahma in FPL? 5
  • FPL ownership: 3.9%
  • Price: £4.7m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: bur | ars | NOR | SOU | wat

Vladimir Coufal (£4.7m) has been a solid performer for West Ham United since joining from Slavia Prague in 2020, and is now back in the starting XI after losing his spot through injury and the fine form of Ben Johnson (£4.0m).

The right-back has now started back-to-back Premier League matches, which has seen the Hammers beat Chelsea and draw with Brighton and Hove Albion. During that time, amongst all team-mates, only Jarrod Bowen and Michail Antonio (£7.9m) have attempted more shots in the box, while his three successful crosses is a team-leading total. That’s important, too, given that this weekend’s opponents Burnley have allowed 184 crosses from their left flank this season, at least 18 more than any other side.

This season alone, David Moyes’ team have managed league victories over Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur, while they are also through to the last-16 of the UEFA Europa League after topping their group. Now, they have the opportunity to kick-on, with one of the kindest fixture schedules on offer, with games against Burnley, Norwich City, Southampton and Watford before the end of the year. In fact, they will face only one side currently nestled in the top six right up until March.

Having dropped £0.3m from his initial starting price, Coufal now offers a cheap route into West Ham’s defence, and could be a solid set-and-forget option given their appealing fixtures.

HARRY MAGUIRE

  • FPL ownership: 4.9%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: nor | bre | BHA | new | BUR

Harry Maguire (£5.4m) has endured a difficult start to the season at Manchester United, but the appointment of Ralf Rangnick could prove a turning point.

In his first game in charge, the German tactician opted for a 4-2-2-2 formation, with Scott McTominay (£5.4m) and Fred (£4.9m) effectively screening the back four. As a result, United conceded just eight shots and 0.75 expected goals (xG), while they also kept their first Old Trafford clean sheet since all the way back in April, ending a run of 15 games without one there.

As for Maguire, he remained assured and composed throughout, with his distribution from the back particularly impressive. In fact, the England international played 15 successful passes into the final third on Sunday, more than any other player on the pitch, which could be key moving forward, with a new, more direct approach being implemented.

The schedule should also allow Maguire to thrive. On paper, the fixtures for Rangnick’s first couple of months are about as good as it gets, especially in December, with no matches against the current top six to worry about. Looking further ahead, it’s notable just how appealing that run is, right through until March, with just one game against West Ham United the only red blob on our Season Ticker.

With uncertainty around who will be United’s long-term first-choice full-backs, Maguire could be a solid under the radar pick, with an ability to contribute points at both ends of the pitch.

  1. Bubz
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Was Jesus just not mentioned then?

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I'm selling anyhow i think.

      He's flagged at 75% with a knock too.

  2. Assisting the assister
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    On wc

    A. Bench Jota .3 lost if I ship him
    B. Bring in Mount

    Any help appreciated

  3. Scots Gooner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Jota to Mount worth an additional -4?

    1. Sterling Archer
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Nah i dont think so, what if Jota makes it for mid week and Mount is rested

    2. BremerHB
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Nope!

  4. g40steve
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    ESR, Jota, Toney & possibly Vardy all doubts, Sitting on -4.

    A, GTG?
    B, Another hit!

    DDG,
    Rudiger, James, Cancelo, Trent,
    Salah, *Jota, Bernardo, Gallagher,
    *Vardy, Dennis

    Steele, *ESR, Livramento, *Toney,

    .5

    1. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Depends how adverse to hits you are.

      In your shoes, I'd honestly consider Vardy/Jota to CR7/Bowen.

      1. g40steve
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Wow, that would be my first -12!

        1. Scots Gooner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Lots of hits this week.

          Just accept your team has been unlucky and fix the gaps.

          Bowen/CR7 are players everyone will want for the coming weeks.

          1. g40steve
            • 7 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            Yes I know what you mean, just Vardy has NewC they are hopeless at defending & Jota has nice run of fixtures.

            Defo worth considering - 12 going to take some pulling back if week has more Covid-19 cases & low scoring!

            1. HammersXI
              • 13 Years
              4 years, 1 month ago

              I myself brought in jota and am considering replacing Vardy for Ronaldo for a hit esp since he played last night

        2. Shineonme
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          -16 oncoming 🙁

          1. Shineonme
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            Incoming #

            1. g40steve
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 1 month ago

              Wow what you doing?

              I was think a -12 was a lot!

  5. Steve The Spud
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Start jota or rudiger (starting Alonso)

    Looks to me like it’s one of those where jota will either start or not feature at all

    1. g40steve
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      The one not flagged

    2. Shineonme
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Jota out no ?

  6. The Reptile
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    I've got Sanchez + Foster in Goal - 0.2 ITB

    Worth Foster > Bachman for free?

    Also have Jota & ESR so not sure what to do

  7. Dthinger
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Do I need to take a hit, or am I okay as is?

    Bachmann
    TAA Cancelo Alonso Henry
    Salah ESR Gallagher
    Ronaldo Pukki Dennis

    Steele Livra Brownhill Son

    Concerned about ESR, but I suppose Livra subbing on wouldnt be that bad.

  8. RamaLangaDingDong
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Goalkeeper fix required: 0FT and 0.3 ITB

    Gunnarson (3.9m) to Bachmann (4.2m)
    OR
    Sanchez (4.5) to Guiata (4.6)

    (- I had actually earmarked the cash to do Livramento to Dalot, but you can't spend it twice...!)

    Ditching Gunnaarson gives me two playing goalkeepers over the Festive period but I'm not sure how much I trust Watford to keep clean sheets...?

    Plus, BHA and CRY have pretty similar defensive stats so it would be a pretty sideways move if I lose Sanchez.

    Anything I am missing here, or do I bank the transfer and keep Sanchez for his double...?

    1. Dthinger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      gunnarson to bachmann looks great to me.

  9. Pompey5
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Who would you get?
    A: Bernardo
    B: Bowen

    1. SpaceCadet
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      A

    2. Cheeky Onion
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Silva, but try to get both in

      1. Pompey5
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Having to take a hit for 1. Not sure its worth -8 this week to get both now.

        1. AC Yew
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Cant decide between them both so I'm taking a -8!

          1. Pompey5
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            😀

    3. Dthinger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      b

  10. Botman and Robben
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Start one:
    A. Jota
    B. ESR
    C. Gallagher

    1. SpaceCadet
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      A

  11. AC Yew
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Are these moves worth a -8.
    Sanchez, Son, Normann ----> DDG, Bilva & Bowen?

    1. SpaceCadet
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Yes

      1. AC Yew
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks!

    2. Pompey5
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Yes

      1. AC Yew
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks!

    3. Dthinger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      yes

      1. AC Yew
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks!

  12. Kane Train
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Sissoko or Gilmour for bench cover

    1. Gentle_Turks
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I have Sissoko.

    2. Dthinger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      gilmour

  13. Gentle_Turks
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Do we know if Jota trained today? Klopp said he may train today and then be in contention for Saturday.

    1. Gentle_Turks
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Anyone?

  14. Cheeky Onion
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    On WC with a midfield of:

    Salah - Silva - Jota - Bowen - Gray

    Would you do Jota (SV 7.8) > Mount?

    Would likely bring Jota back in soon enough. Also have 2 capable bench players as cover

    1. Pompey5
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      just bench

    2. BremerHB
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Nah I’d hold on to Jota. See if he plays or is on the bench this week. If not can ship then. If he’s just missing one game he’s too good an option not to have on WC. If you have a bench option for this week I wouldn’t take the risk.

    3. Gentle_Turks
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Very tricky. Jota could start the midweek game.

    4. Cheeky Onion
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Cheers all, think I'm going to hold. He's probably going to be the best value FPL player once AFCON comes around

  15. BremerHB
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    A) Son -> Bowen
    B) Son, Alonso, Wilson -> Bowen, Dalot, Ronaldo (-8)

    Ramsdale
    TAA Cancelo Alonso James
    Jota Salah Son
    Antonio Wilson King

    Foster Raph Livra Brownhill

    1. Pompey5
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      A

      1. BremerHB
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks. Would do the other two for the next GW. Not taking hits this week might be a big help.

  16. George James
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Play Livramento or Sissoko?

    1. BremerHB
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Reckon Livra has a higher ceiling. Sissoko if you need every point you can scrape.

    2. Gentle_Turks
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Sissoko.

    3. HD7
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I have Cornet doubtful. Livra first ok bench. Sissoko 2nd

  17. BobB
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    With Salah and Mane soon to leave for the ACL Jota will be essential. Hold.

    1. HD7
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Will Liverpool be so good without them though

    2. BremerHB
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Agreed. Especially if it’s only one game out.

  18. fc_skrald
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Anyone getting Richarlison in this gw? Hope he can do the job...

    1. The 12th Man
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Thought about it briefly for Toney but decided against.
      Maybe after the Chelsea game.

  19. Kodap
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Which of these would you do for a -8?

    1. Sanchez > DDG to ensure I can field at minimum 10. (ESR and Jota both doubts)
    2. Son > Bowen/Mount (Field 10 maximum as have Sanchez & Steele)

    1. Pompey5
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I'm not taking a hit to change Sanchez. You will need a clean sheet and even then you will only be up 2 points. One lucky goal and you are down 2 points. Not worth it for me.

  20. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Sterling (c) 🙂 or Cancelo, James.

    1. BrockLanders
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      You don't own Salah??

    2. BremerHB
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Way too much risk for my liking! Probably Sterling out of them. Not a fan of captaining defenders.

  21. BrockLanders
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Arteta on ESR:

    Emile has trained today and he was feeling much better after losing him for the last game and hopefully he will be available to play. The rest [of the squad] is okay.

    1. Philosopher's Stones
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      "available to play. The rest [of the squad] is okay."

      Sounds like he'll come off the bench.

  22. mcginnntonic
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Would you do sanchez to bachman for -4? more favorable fixtures over next 3 and essentially only a -2 this week

    1. BrockLanders
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I would

  23. El_Gigante
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Bottomed

    WC team, 0.0itb

    Ramsdale
    TAA | James | Cancelo
    Salah | Bowen | Bernardo | Mount
    Ronaldo | Antonio | King

    (Gunnarsson | Dalot | Gilmour | Amartey)

    Good to go?

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I know the forward position is tough.

      Is Antonio the best option still?

      1. BobB
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Yes. WH create loads of chances, and he is the focal point.

        1. El_Gigante
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Can downgrade to Watkins or Richarlison in a few weeks if it does not work out

    2. BrockLanders
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Yes. Looks good

  24. Return of the FF
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Not fun this week, is it!? Thoughts on this please?

    A. Semedo to TAA -4
    B. Raph to Bilva
    C roll

    Bear in mind I also own ESR, Jota and Raphina. My bench opponents mean I need to play the above 3 as well, unless I take a hit.

  25. Jeremy Corbyn
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    I was an idiot selling Son when the FFS RMT still gives him 4.5 expected points.
    Why do I pay my membership if I can't be bothered checking.

  26. FPL Scoop
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Just done Jota to Bernardo, sod it. 0 FT 1.9m ITB. Not ideal but we okay?

    Ramsdale
    TAA Cancelo James
    Salah(c) BSilva ESR Gallagher
    Vardy Dennis Jimenez
    (Foster** Livramento Reguilon** McArthur**)

    1. g40steve
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Looks sweet

  27. Releasebreaks
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Which one for long term?
    Money no problem

    A - Bernardo Silva
    B - Jota

  28. tim
    • 16 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Dias to Dalot
    Jota to BSilva
    Toney to CR7
    Son to Bowen

    -8

    Yay or Nay?

    Cheerio!

  29. Philosopher's Stones
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Do we think Jota comes on if he's benched?

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Not if he's not match fit.

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        So if he's benched he's got to be fit to play.

    2. Shineonme
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      maybe but only for 10 to 15 min i guess

  30. OneDennisBergkamp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Would you do Lamptey > Rudiger for -4

    Already had to take a -4 to field 11 but now Jota injured would only have 10 players unless I do the above…