Spot the Differential
10 December 2021 1458 comments
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Gameweek 16 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Everton, West Ham United and Manchester United, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

ABDOULAYE DOUCOURE

  • FPL ownership: 1.6%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: cry | che | LEI | bur | NEW

Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.4m) has impressed under Rafael Benitez this season, bagging two goals and four assists in just 11 starts. As a result, the 28-year-old is averaging 4.6 points per match, which is more than team-mate Demarai Gray (£5.5m) and only fractionally below Jarrod Bowen’s (£6.5m) 4.7 total.

Having missed a run of four matches from Gameweek 9 onwards with a broken metatarsal, he has since returned to Everton’s engine room alongside Allan (£4.5m). During that period, he has registered six shots in the box, a figure only Diogo Jota (£8.0m), Mohamed Salah (£13.1m), Hakim Ziyech (£7.3m) and Gabriel Martinelli (£5.2m) can better amongst all midfielders.

The Toffees have been plagued with injury problems all season, with some of their most influential players – including Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.9m) – all spending time on the sidelines at various points. However, the crisis does now seem to be easing, which coincided with an important 2-1 win over Arsenal on Monday night, when Doucoure was a little unfortunate not to produce an assist, with Richarlison’s (£7.4m) goal from his pass narrowly ruled out for offside by VAR.

Now, they take on a Crystal Palace side who have had real issues defending set-pieces in 2021/22, which could be good news for Doucoure, one of Everton’s key aerial threats, while between Gameweeks 18-26, they sit top of our Season Ticker for ease of fixture.

Doucoure was predominantly used in a deeper midfield role last season, but has thrived after being handed more attacking responsibility by his new manager, and could be an effective differential in the coming weeks.

VLADIMIR COUFAL

Is it time to sell Antonio and Benrahma in FPL? 5
  • FPL ownership: 3.9%
  • Price: £4.7m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: bur | ars | NOR | SOU | wat

Vladimir Coufal (£4.7m) has been a solid performer for West Ham United since joining from Slavia Prague in 2020, and is now back in the starting XI after losing his spot through injury and the fine form of Ben Johnson (£4.0m).

The right-back has now started back-to-back Premier League matches, which has seen the Hammers beat Chelsea and draw with Brighton and Hove Albion. During that time, amongst all team-mates, only Jarrod Bowen and Michail Antonio (£7.9m) have attempted more shots in the box, while his three successful crosses is a team-leading total. That’s important, too, given that this weekend’s opponents Burnley have allowed 184 crosses from their left flank this season, at least 18 more than any other side.

This season alone, David Moyes’ team have managed league victories over Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur, while they are also through to the last-16 of the UEFA Europa League after topping their group. Now, they have the opportunity to kick-on, with one of the kindest fixture schedules on offer, with games against Burnley, Norwich City, Southampton and Watford before the end of the year. In fact, they will face only one side currently nestled in the top six right up until March.

Having dropped £0.3m from his initial starting price, Coufal now offers a cheap route into West Ham’s defence, and could be a solid set-and-forget option given their appealing fixtures.

HARRY MAGUIRE

  • FPL ownership: 4.9%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: nor | bre | BHA | new | BUR

Harry Maguire (£5.4m) has endured a difficult start to the season at Manchester United, but the appointment of Ralf Rangnick could prove a turning point.

In his first game in charge, the German tactician opted for a 4-2-2-2 formation, with Scott McTominay (£5.4m) and Fred (£4.9m) effectively screening the back four. As a result, United conceded just eight shots and 0.75 expected goals (xG), while they also kept their first Old Trafford clean sheet since all the way back in April, ending a run of 15 games without one there.

As for Maguire, he remained assured and composed throughout, with his distribution from the back particularly impressive. In fact, the England international played 15 successful passes into the final third on Sunday, more than any other player on the pitch, which could be key moving forward, with a new, more direct approach being implemented.

The schedule should also allow Maguire to thrive. On paper, the fixtures for Rangnick’s first couple of months are about as good as it gets, especially in December, with no matches against the current top six to worry about. Looking further ahead, it’s notable just how appealing that run is, right through until March, with just one game against West Ham United the only red blob on our Season Ticker.

With uncertainty around who will be United’s long-term first-choice full-backs, Maguire could be a solid under the radar pick, with an ability to contribute points at both ends of the pitch.

  1. Baron Penguin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    I haven't asked for (much) advice all season or taken a hit, but I am stuck!!!

    Ederson
    Cancelo TAA Alonso
    Mount Foden Salah Gallagher
    Dennis King Antonio

    Foster Jota Livramento Reguilon

    1FT 1.2 ITB, happy to bench Jota. Considering Cancelo (C)!

    1. Reguilon to Dalot, bench Gallagher/Dennis
    2. Reguilon to James, bench Gallagher/Dennis
    3. Gallagher to Bowen
    4. Ederson to Ramsdale, Gallagher to Bernardo/Gundo next GW

    Thanks all

    1. Salan
      • 16 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I would not bench Jota.

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      3

  2. Johan Queef
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Son to...

    A) Bowen
    B) Foden
    C) Bernardo

    I'll either get a city mid now or next GW so it's more city mid Vs Bowen this week.

    Thanks!

    1. thepuntmaster
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      C

    2. Gizzachance
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Same, think I’m going bilva

    3. Baron Penguin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I wouldn't risk B this GW, then we're in coin toss territory.

    4. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      A or C. I like A

      1. Johan Queef
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks guys. Might just do both!

  3. Arteta
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    (C)ristiano anyone?!

  4. TopBinFc
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Just took a -8, dirty feeling

      1. Conners
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        -12 here. Written the GW off already, ha.

      2. Scots Gooner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Who'd you transfer?

        1. TopBinFc
            4 years, 1 month ago

            Son, Duffy & Toney -> Bilva, Cancelo & King
            Felt I had to as I also have Dier and Jota so either that or play with 9 players.

        2. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Dirty week.
          Time to boost up your immune system and play in the mud.

      3. thepuntmaster
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Which pick:
        A) Tierney
        B) Tomiyasu
        C) Coufal

        1. dynamike
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          I think c

        2. ChampChomp
          • 13 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Tomiyasu seems most nailed of the three. The other two are more likely to get attacking returns. I don't trust Tierney as he's very injury prone and West Ham might not be as solid defensively with their injuries so I'd go with Tomi

      4. Conners
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        -12 squad... Where are you!?

      5. Blue Moon Rising
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Get rid first:

        A) Toney
        B) Jota
        C) Foden?

        1. RAFA THE GAFFA
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          A

        2. Gizzachance
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          A as we know he’s out, others may be back for m week games

        3. Baron Penguin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          A

      6. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        -4 team G2G? Tough call but decided to keep my WC for now.

        DDG
        TAA. Cancelo. Alonso
        Salah. Jota*. Raph. ESR*
        Ronaldo. Antonio. King
        (Foster. White. Livra. Gilmour)

        1. RAFA THE GAFFA
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Looks like Jota could totally miss out from @anfieldedition.

          Hmm…

        2. Shineonme
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          I don't think jota or ERS start

          1. RAFA THE GAFFA
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            I think ESR does personally

        3. Bobby Crush
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Right call

      7. TheYogaDaddy
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Captain CR7 or Salah?

      8. hjc13
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Any help for this gameweek ?

        Ramsdale
        TAA coady alonso livra
        Salah jota* foden* esr*
        saintmax king

        Only 10 players with flags to jota / foden / esr and son and lamptey no game

        Used transfer bringing in king earlier in week

      9. Salan
        • 16 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I do think only one bench (Livra) not enough to cover Jota/James/BSilva/Antonio. The latter two are more nailed this week I know.

      10. Mind över Mata
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Afternoon gents, worth a hit here? Can do Raph -> 7.5 mid (Bowen, Mount, Gundo) (-4)

        Ramsdale
        Cancelo, TAA, James, Alonso
        Salah (c), Jota*, ESM*
        Ronny, Antonio, King

        4.0; Raph, Livra, Brownhill

      11. Harvey Specter
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Should I start Jota or Gallagher? Or is there no chance Jota starts?

      12. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
        • 15 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I was going to bring in Jota and Foden, what now?

        1. Blue Moon Rising
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Bowen seems popular

        2. Conners
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          A little tricky to say without seeing your team.

      13. Saka White Rice
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        A) Raphinha to Bowen/Gundogan for a hit?
        B) Bowen or Gundogan?

      14. OverTinker
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Chasing big
        Is Ronaldo(c) over Salah too risky?

        1. Fit_to_drop
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          No, I dont think its overly risky. Esp when Ronaldo is on penalties, with very pacy wingers, playing a weak side

      15. Galactic_Koopa
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Gallagher-> Bowen -4?

        1. Galactic_Koopa
          • 4 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Or Toney-> Antonio instead

          1. Galactic_Koopa
            • 4 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            I was also thinking about Jota -> Bowen but I dont think its worth getting rid of Jota rn

        2. Snevitz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          What's wrong with Gallagher?
          The Toney move looks good but not for a hit if you have a decent team this week.

          1. Galactic_Koopa
            • 4 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            Thanks I see your point, theres no real need to get rid of Gallagher. The Toney move would allow me to take Jota off this week

      16. Old Wulfrunian
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Any news on Johnson?

      17. FFFoxy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Jota > mount -4 (-12 total lol)
        Or leave jota in with ESR first on bench?
        Livramento 2nd

        1. Taegugk Warrior
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Nope

        2. vova
          • 15 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          leave it IMO

      18. Thinkering like a Boss
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Laporte or Walker?

        1. Pepeye
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Walker

      19. winchester
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        GTG or anything worth a hit? cheers.

        ramsdale
        taa - cancelo - james - livra
        salah(C) - bernardo - jota
        antonio - dennis - hwang

        (foster - gilmour - reguilon - son)

        a) GTG
        b) jota -> bowen -4
        c) son -> mount/bowen? -4
        d) hwang -> watkins -4

        1. Bobby_Baggio
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          C bench Hwnag

      20. Bobby_Baggio
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        There seems to be little love for Mount is that purely for non guarantee of starting?

      21. Snevitz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Would you bench:
        A) Rudiger vs LEE
        B) Gallagher vs EVE?

        1. Bobby_Baggio
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Gallagher

          1. Snevitz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 16 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            Thanks

      22. Taegugk Warrior
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        For -4
        A. Sanchez to ddg ( to fullfill starting 11)
        B. Raph to B.Silva
        C. Raph to Bowen

        Also start jota with livra is the only bench player

      23. AF90
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Livramento, Jota & Toney-> Cancelo, Bowen, Dennis -4?

        1. lewis274
          • 4 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          get king

      24. lewis274
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        for a -4?

        raphinha to bowen
        or
        vardy to ronaldo

      25. thomashl
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Best route?

        A) Jota Sanchez -> Bowen DDG (-8)
        B) Wilson Sanchez -> King DDG (-8)

        Sanchez
        TAA Cancelo James
        Jota Salah Gallagher Raph
        CR7 Wilson Anto
        (Foster - Livra Manquillo Brownhill) 0itb

      26. Jet5605
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Zero ITB and already used my FT.

        A - Take -8 hit and do Son & Sanchez > Bowen & Ramsdale
        B - Just take -4 hit and do Son > Bowen and go without GK
        C - No hits, let Gilmour come in for Son and have no GK

        Sanchez
        TAA - James - Cancelo - Livra
        Salah (c) - Son - Jota - Bilva
        Antonio - Wilson

        Foster - Gilmour - Duffy - Perica

      27. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
        • 15 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        what's so good about Bowen? Less points than Gallagher who is cheaper, only 2 points above Smith Rowe and 6 points more than Gray who is 1m cheaper

        1. vova
          • 15 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          better form/fixtures coming up, playing in a more advanced position. Gallagher is playing a bit deeper now.

        2. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Moyes for one, better team also.
          Spam top four on the cards.
          Has turned into a top manager and a top fella in my book.

        3. Cok3y5murf
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          He was crap at first. Can't look at the past. Gallagher playing deep now.

      28. Bojam
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        First sub for this GW?

        A. Pukki (vs Man U)
        B. Livramento (vs Arsenal)

        Might well be needed if Jota is out.

        Thanks!

        1. Snevitz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Pukki

          1. Bojam
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            Cheers. Was leaning that way.