Spot the Differential
11 March 2022 760 comments
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Gameweek 29 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Arsenal, Everton and Liverpool, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

GABRIEL MARTINELLI

FPL Gameweek 17 review: Martinelli update, bargain Broja and Antonio's blank
  • FPL ownership: 2.8%
  • Price: £5.3m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: LEI + LIV | avl | cry | BHA | sou

Gabriel Martinelli (£5.3m) is back on the Fantasy radar after netting at Watford on Sunday.

Now, the cut-price midfielder presents an intriguing differential to Bukayo Saka (£6.6m), not least because his minutes-per-expected goal involvement (xGI) figure is better than all of the other Arsenal midfield regulars in 2021/22.

It’s also worth noting that Martinelli has an identical minutes-per-points average as Saka (15.7), which isn’t bad considering he costs £1.3m less, while his seven big chances from Gameweek 13 onwards is only bettered by Alexandre Lacazette (£8.3m) amongst team-mates.

Positional rival Emile Smith Rowe (£5.8m) will presumably be free from Covid-19 in time for the weekend, but Martinelli has started each of the last 11 Premier League matches he has been available for, producing four goals and two assists, which is encouraging for those backing the Brazilian winger to shine.

As for Arsenal, they have won their last four Premier League matches in a row, and now take on Leicester City (h) and Liverpool (h) in Gameweek 29, before facing Aston Villa (a), Crystal Palace (a) and Brighton and Hove Albion (h). In fact, their schedule right through until the end of the season is favourable, with two more as-yet-unannounced Double Gameweeks to fit in somewhere.

Martinelli offers a budget route into Arsenal’s attack for this double-header, and could be a useful differential in the coming weeks too.

DOMINIC CALVERT-LEWIN

Five-time top 1k FPL finisher Tom Freeman on Calvert-Lewin, Wolves and his Gameweek 2 plans 6
  • FPL ownership: 3.1%
  • Price: £7.7m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: WOL + NEW | – | whu | MUN | –

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.7m) has struggled for form since returning from injury, but now faces back-to-back home matches against Wolverhampton Wanderers and Newcastle United in Double Gameweek 29.

Everton’s problematic away form continued at Tottenham Hotspur on Monday, but it is worth noting that their Goodison Park performances under Frank Lampard have generally been good.

The former Chelsea man oversaw a convincing 3-0 victory over Leeds United in his first Premier League home fixture last month, seven days after beginning his reign with a comprehensive Goodison FA Cup success (4-1) against Brentford. Events conspired against them versus Manchester City in Gameweek 27, but there were many positives to take from their display.

As for Calvert-Lewin, he started the 2021/22 campaign in good form, scoring in each of the opening three Gameweeks, but then early momentum was halted after an injury that saw him sidelined up until January. Since his return, the England international has failed to find the back of the net in his six appearances, but has racked up 12 shots in the box, two big chances and 1.99 expected goals (xG), all team-leading totals.

Given their position – they are currently one place and one point above the relegation zone – these two home matches are crucial for Everton, and if they are to get back on track, there is a decent chance Calvert-Lewin will be central to it.

LUIS DIAZ

Returning Sarr among the FPL differentials for Double Gameweek 26
  • FPL ownership: 2.2%
  • Price: £8.0m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: bha + ars | – | WAT | mci | avl

Luis Diaz (£8.0m) has hit the ground running at Liverpool following his January move from Porto.

Since making his first Premier League start in Gameweek 24, the Colombian winger has racked up 17 goal attempts, 11 shots in the box, five efforts on target, two big chances and 37 penalty area touches. He has also created nine chances, whilst amongst all team-mates, only Mohamed Salah (£13.2m) has received more passes in the final third.

At this stage, we should emphasise the rotation risk associated with the player. With Roberto Firmino (£8.7m) nearing a return to action, it’s at least five players competing for three spots in attack, perhaps leaving the likes of Diaz and Diogo Jota (£8.3m), maybe even premium option Sadio Mane (£11.7m), open to a spot of rotation. However, Diaz’s ability on the pitch has been clear for all to see, and if he were to get 120-ish minutes across the two matches, that could be enough for him to haul.

Liverpool return to Premier League action in Double Gameweek 29 when they visit Brighton and Hove Albion and Arsenal, as they aim to keep the pressure on table-toppers Manchester City. That’s followed by a Gameweek 30 blank, although they do have an appealing Anfield encounter against Watford to follow. For those looking further ahead, the Reds will also have another Double Gameweek to come between now and the end of the season.

Adding Diaz to Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.5m) and Salah – both of whom are locked into most Fantasy sides – is an appealing move this week, and could pay off given Liverpool’s attacking firepower.

760 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Rog.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    A) Jota + Foden -> Salah + Kulu
    B) Jota + James -> Salah + Reg/Doherty
    C) Foden + James -> Salah + Reg/Doherty

    1. Rog.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Sorry for dull top post!

    2. Sun God Nika
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Any minuses involved?

    3. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Take a -8 and do all three moves

      1. Rog.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Thanks all for the replies!

  2. Gazza2000
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Will most likely doing James and Coutinho to Robertson and Kulusevski for a hit
    Worth another -4 to do Saiss/Digne to Doherty and bench Jimenez?

    Ramsdale
    TAA Robertson Tierney
    Salah Kulusevski Raphinha Saka
    Kane Broja Jimenez

    Foster Saiss Ramsey Digne

    1. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Sounds good

    2. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I don't think so, no

    3. Kaptenen
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I dont think so, do not really fancy Spurs for clean sheets. Wolves also looked good yesterday so would rather take Jimi + 4pts 🙂

  3. Bobby_Baggio
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Afternoon all. FH'ing in GW30. What moves to make please? Thinking DDG out, thoughts? 0.1m ITB only.

    DDG
    Lamptey - Cancelo - TAA - Rudiger
    Foden - Willock - Son - Saka - Salah
    Antonio

    (Foster) - Livra - Broja - Weghorst

    1. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      DDG to Ramsdale - yes you don't need him for 30 if you are free hitting but still want to be getting in a "til end of season" pick for GK unless you have a WC left

      1. Bobby_Baggio
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Yes have 2 x FH, WC and BB but plan was to use GW35/36. Would you still go for ramsdale?

        1. Biggsy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          I'd be less worried about getting a keeper to last until 38. But he still doubles this week and has good fixtures so not necessarily a bad move. You'd have to look at when you play your WC and work out best keeper until then ignoring the FH weeks

          1. Bobby_Baggio
            • 14 Years
            3 years, 9 months ago

            cheers

  4. Sun God Nika
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Bench 1 of these - Jimenez Broja or Rudiger ?

    1. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Broja

    2. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Jim

    3. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Unpopular, but maybe Rudiger. Newcastle no pushovers these days

    4. Kaptenen
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Broja

    5. Red Red Robins
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Have to say Rudiger

    6. Quan MisTaka
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Same boat. Been on Jimi all week but hard to ignore wolves last game. Newc could score..

  5. Skout
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Play Broja or Jimi

    1. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      On Jimi at the moment

    2. Sun God Nika
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Im in the same situation

      Leaning towards Broja but either could get something!!

    3. Kaptenen
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Jimi

  6. TeddiPonza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Ramsey and Digne to Kulusevski and Amartey for -4? Would mean I can bench Broja this week (seems due a rest)

    1. TeddiPonza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Amartey would be on the bench this week.

    2. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I'd fancy that not to pay off - maybe a tired West Ham from their European endeavours is a good game for Villa

  7. Biggsy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    A. JWP & Raph -> Saka & Kulu (play White)
    B. JWP & James -> Martinelli & Robbo
    C. Mount & James -> Saka & Robbo

    1. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      C

    2. ZimZalabim
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I like C

    3. Kaptenen
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      C

  8. Kaptenen
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Which move do you prefer?

    A) Jota & Livra --> Martinelli & VVD (-4)
    B) Jota & Livra --> Kulusevski & Doherty (-4)
    C) Jota --> Kulusevski

    Ramsdale - Dubravka
    TAA - Cancelo - Cash - RAN - Livra
    Salah - Jota - Coutinho - Saka - Raphinha
    Kane - Jimenez - Broja

    1. Kaptenen
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Not planning to use FH in 30 🙂

    2. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Supposedly VVD not spotted in training and Klopp made some cryptic comments about COVID so avoid A until you are sure VVD plays. However I think A over B. Would be tempted by C solely because Jota could do well (or he could be benched with Firmino coming back)

      1. Kaptenen
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Did not know that, thank you man! 🙂

    3. Pether
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      C

  9. fakelund
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    considering a BB this week… with this in mind:

    Watkins & Havertz > Kulusevski & Lacazette (-4)

    Would mean a team of:
    Dubravka
    Rudiger, TAA, Livramento
    Salah, Saka, Kulusevski, Raphinha, Gordon
    Kane(c), Lacazette
    (Sa, Broja, Cash, Saiss)

    Worth the transfer, and then worth the BB?

    1. Kaptenen
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Maybe not the strongest bench but if you don't have WC left I would probably still go for it.

    2. Mattski
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Not sure that bench is worth boosting, think there might be better opportunities to come where you can plan ahead to get DGW players on your bench.

  10. Pether
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Long term dilemma

    A) Son + Richarlison
    B) Kulusevski + Kane

    Spurs has form, Everton has 2 more games (as I am free hitting in 30)

    1. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      The one that doesn’t involve Everton

    2. Kaptenen
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      B by a mile

  11. CRAZY TRAIN
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    With 2 FH's in hand and the ability to put out a reasonable 11 in GW30 I am tempted to cash in on a FH this week. Aside from GW36 I don't see any better gw's to FH than this one and it enables a strong 11 of DGW players...something along the lines of:

    Ramsdale
    TAA Robbo Doherty
    Saka Salah Son Gordon
    Laca Kane Wood

    1. _Ninja_
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I'd rather keep them for 33 and 36

      1. Here is Cash, give McGinn
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        What happens 33?

        1. _Ninja_
          • 15 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Some teams double and some blank

      2. Biggsy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        This. 33 will have blanks and doubles. 36 should see 10 teams double. Attacking those will be much more than you'll make attacking this double (or 30)

        1. FourLokoLeipzig
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Me sentiments and plan too

          1. FourLokoLeipzig
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 9 months ago

            *my

        2. CRAZY TRAIN
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Sound advice, thanks

  12. My heart goes Salalalalah
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Hi. Need some input on who to bench. Assuming I do James to Doherty, my team will be as below. 2x FH & BB still in hand. Won't play FH in bgw30

    Dubravka*
    TAA* Doherty* Rudiger
    Salah* Willock* Saka* Raph Cout
    Kane* Jimenez
    Sa Dier* Broja Livra

  13. YoungPretender
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    With Sa, Broja, Jimenez & Saiss on bench…. would you BB?

  14. Malinwa
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Would you do this move: Cancelo > Doherty ?

    1. CRAZY TRAIN
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Quite a lot of people have I think

    2. Bobby_Baggio
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Depends what chips you have left. I would prefer the long term of keeping cancelo if you dont have WC

      1. Malinwa
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Still have my WC and I want to keep my FH for GW33.

  15. Mr.K
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    If I've already accepted transfers and taken a hit and now use a FH, will the -4 remain and the FH effect only the transfers I make after using it?

    1. _Ninja_
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      No, transfers made wouldnt be in your team next gw. -4 wiped out

      1. Mr.K
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Thank you!

  16. Here is Cash, give McGinn
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Bowen to A) Saka B) Kulu worth a hit?

    1. Quan MisTaka
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Yes either. A>B

    2. Bobby_Baggio
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Yep i like either one

  17. Malinwa
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Cancelo > Doherty?

    Lloris**
    Cancelo - TAA** - White** - Rudiger
    Raph - Salah** - Saka** - Jota**
    Laca** - Adams

    Foster-Livra-Bowen-Dennis

  18. HaffNanner
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Struggling to decide which players to drop for Kane.

    A. Jimenez, Coutinho > Kane, Martinelli

    B. Lacazette, Coutinho > Kane, Saka

    C. Broja, Son > Kane, Kulusevski

    D. Forget Kane. Digne, Ramsey > Doherty, Kulusevski

    Sa (Foster)
    Trent TSilva Tierney (Digne Saiss)
    Salah Son Coutinho Fraser (Ramsey)
    Lacazette Jimenez Broja
    1FT 2.9ITB

  19. Jinswick
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    What’s your current rank and target for the season?

    For me it’s:
    Current = 42k
    Target = Top 10k

    1. Bobby_Baggio
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Current - 100k
      Target - top 10k

    2. Je suis le chat
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Current 565k, target: 10k.

      1. Chris_H
        • 16 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        wow, like your optimism!

        1. Je suis le chat
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Need a Mo regression as I don't have him!

    3. Chris_H
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      600k
      150k

      #bangaverage 🙂

    4. BrockLanders
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      696k 🙁

      Top 250k

    5. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Current = 189k
      Minimum target = 100k
      Stretch target = 10k

      1. WVA
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Fair play bro but that's not happening lol

    6. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Current - 33K
      Target - 10K

      Pretty basic. I still have WC, FH and BB so I think it's definitely doable and a push into top 5K is also something I may set my sights on.

    7. Karan_G14
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Current - 10k
      Target - 1k

    8. WVA
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Just dropped from 70k to 90k with Salah C, all chips remaining bar TC though so will be disappointed not to make top 50k.

    9. Sulley
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      16K target 10K

      Don’t want to get too greedy now 🙂

    10. Josh.E
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Current: 140k
      Goal: 50k

    11. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Current top 30k
      Target: to win 😉
      Realistic target: top 10k

    12. dando89
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Current: 7k
      Target: 1k

    13. Forgetmeknot
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      5k
      Stay 5k

    14. internal error
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      current: 3.9k
      target: stay in top 5k

  20. BrockLanders
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Would you BB this?

    Ramsdale
    TAA, Doherty, Bavies, Robbo
    Salah (c), Son, Saka, Raphina
    Broja, Richarlson

    DDG, Jimenez, Digne, Ramsey,

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      No

      1. In a Rush
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Not for me

    2. Bobby_Baggio
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      no mate

      1. BrockLanders
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Cheers folks

  21. Bobby_Baggio
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Afternoon all. FH'ing in GW30. Have another FH, WC and BB (GW35/36) left. What moves to make please? Thinking DDG out, thoughts? 0.1m ITB only.

    DDG
    Lamptey - Cancelo - TAA - Rudiger
    Foden - Willock - Son - Saka - Salah
    Antonio

    (Foster) - Livra - Broja - Weghorst

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Arsenal and Spurs players should be high on your list

      1. Bobby_Baggio
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Who would you take out though. All those starting 11 have decent games

  22. Quan MisTaka
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Start 2

    A) Jimi
    B) Rudiger
    C) Broja

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      AB

      1. In a Rush
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Yes AB

  23. _Ninja_
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Is Ramsey to Martinelli worth a hit? or play one of Saiss/Digne?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I would take the hit

      1. _Ninja_
        • 15 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Cheers

    2. Miro
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      yes

  24. In a Rush
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    How am I looking?
    Transfers done can’t decide who to cap salah or Kane?

    Dubravka
    Taa rudiger Doherty
    Salah raphina martinelli cout son
    Maupay Kane

    Steele broja liveramento Jansen

  25. sirmorbach
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    I need your help, friends, please:

    Lloris
    TAA, Robertson, Cancelo, Rüdiger
    Salah, Foden, Coutinho, Saka, Raphinha
    Broja

    Foster, Watkins, Jimi, Cash

    A. Foden to Kulusevski
    B. Foden to Odegaard/Martinelli, Jimi to 4.5, Watkins to Kane (- 8)
    C. Foden to Gordon, Jimi to Hwang, Watkins to Kane (- 8)
    D. WC/Free Hit (one available)

  26. Fpl_Ludwig
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Son, Havertz, James, King —> Kane, Kulu, Robbo, Martinelli?

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      No.

      Too many moves and you're selling Son as one of them.

      1. In a Rush
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        This

    2. BeWater
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I have Son and there is no way I'm selling him for a hit to get Kane. United and Brighton will give him chances to do what he does best.

  27. vova
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Willock to Kulu

    yay or nay?

    1. In a Rush
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      No

    2. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Neigh

  28. Loðbrók
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    A) DCL + Martinelli
    B) Gordon + Lacazette

  29. Big W
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Would you BB this (No WC Left)

    Sa, Saiss, Digne, Ramsey

    1. BeWater
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      No.

    2. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Definitely no.

      1. In a Rush
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        What they said!

  30. TheDragon
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Would you bench boost:

    Foster, White*, BDavis*, Jiminez