FPL Gameweek 23 differentials: van Hecke, Bailey + Jesus

Spot the Differential puts the spotlight on three players who all have an ownership of 5% or less in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Brighton and Hove Albion, Aston Villa and Arsenal, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

JAN PAUL VAN HECKE

• FPL ownership: 2.6%
• Price: £4.0m

While it’s been Pervis Estupinan (£5.1m) who has attracted most of the Fantasy attention in recent times, fellow Brighton defender Jan Paul van Hecke (£4.0m) could be worth a look as a cheaper alternative.

The Dutchman, who is available at just £4.0m in FPL, has started 12 Premier League games in a row and looks to be second-choice centre-back behind Lewis Dunk (£5.0m), so should start against Crystal Palace in either a three or four-man backline.

Although he’s failed to register any attacking returns so far this season, van Hecke offers a threat from set-plays. In his last 11 appearances, he’s recorded seven goal attempts inside the box, two of which were big chances.

He also picked up two bonus points in the recent scoreless draw at West Ham United, thanks in part to how he dominates his area – from Gameweek 11 onwards, he has posted team-leading totals for aerial duels won, interceptions, recoveries and clearances.

The Brighton centre-half is currently sitting in just 2.6% of FPL squads, and with Brighton’s fixture list kind all the way up until Gameweek 29, barring the trip to Tottenham Hotspur, there’s much to like about van Hecke as an enabler.

Roberto De Zerbi’s men slipped up at Kenilworth Road on Tuesday but have kept clean sheets in two of their last three matches, so further defensive returns could be on the cards over the coming period.

LEON BAILEY

• FPL ownership: 3.6%
• Price: £5.7m

After making a significant impact off the bench in Tuesday’s 3-1 defeat to Newcastle United, we’re taking a gamble on Leon Bailey (£5.7m) ahead of Aston Villa’s plum away fixture at Sheffield United.

The Jamaican led all Villa players for chances created in Gameweek 22 (five), despite only playing 28 minutes as a substitute, and registered an assist for Unai Emery’s men.

That was his 12th attacking return of the season, so we think he could get the nod at Bramall Lane on Saturday evening. That would hand him the opportunity to add to his tally against a Sheffield United side that have conceded 10 goals in their previous four matches.

The Blades have also failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six, so the omens for a return to form for Villa look good.

Bailey is currently priced at £5.7m in FPL and is settled in just 3.6% of FPL squads, despite being Villa’s most in-form player right now.

Investment does carry a risk with John McGinn (£5.5m), Moussa Diaby (£6.6m) and Matty Cash (£4.7m) alternatives on the right wing, but with Sheffield United so porous and with Villa in need of a big performance, it could be worth turning to Bailey in Gameweek 23.

GABRIEL JESUS

• FPL ownership: 4.4%
• Price: £8.0m

While Arsenal team-mate Bukayo Saka (£9.1m) has hogged the limelight from a Fantasy perspective so far this season, Gabriel Jesus (£8.0m) is a player who could warrant a gamble.

The Brazilian may have only managed four goals and four assists so far this season, but he leads all forwards for total shots in the box over the last six Gameweeks with 20.

He isn’t usually a clinical forward, contributing more in general play, but is now placing greater emphasis on getting into the box and scoring, something he discussed in the aftermath of Tuesday’s 2-1 win at Nottingham Forest.

“I have been living with this [pressure] all my life — in Brazil with the national team, at [Manchester] City and now. I am close to 100 [goals] in the Premier League, that’s not easy! Then in the Champions League I am scoring a lot, in the national team I score.

“Sometimes, like I say, I am not focused on that [scoring goals] and that’s I think my mistake. So now, I think I change my mindset and I will be in the box more — and I try everything to score.” – Gabriel Jesus

He also offers solid assist potential, having created three big chances over the last four Gameweeks, more than any other Arsenal player.

Jesus is currently owned by just 4.4% of FPL bosses but looks like an intriguing option in the coming weeks, with promising matches against West Ham, Burnley and Sheffield United in the next five.

Furthermore, the last three Premier League meetings between Arsenal and Liverpool have produced 11 goals, so while Jesus is perhaps not a name on everyone’s lips right now, he is certainly a viable option for those seeking out a differential.