In his first article of 2025, two-time Indian Fantasy Premier League (FPL) champion Lateriser gives us his thoughts on chip strategy, transfers and long-term thinking.
First and foremost, wishing all of you a Happy New Year!
At the turn of a new calendar year, we tend to give an extra layer of thought to our moves and transfers as we begin thinking about when we plan to use the chips that we have at our disposal.
With that in mind, I thought I’d write an article with some basic thoughts on the chip ecosystem right now and more general information that could be useful. I feel like the more information we input into our minds, the more robust our plans around FPL can be.
1. Transfers are precious
The first and most important thing to note is that with chip season in play and blanks and doubles not far away, transfers are worth their weight in gold. This goes especially so in this season where you can carry up to five free transfers. The potential to use those accumulated transfers around a Wildcard or a Free Hit could help us navigate a lot of obstacles. So if you’re 50/50 about a certain transfer, waiting rather than going in might be more fruitful.
2. Balancing between points now and planning
There is a big case for this in the immediate future.
Let me cite it with the most relevant and current example. If you use the fixture ticker and load it right until Gameweek 30, Crystal Palace are on top for ease of fixture and Newcastle United are fourth.
Now you combine that with leg one of the Carabao Cup results and you will realise that because Newcastle United have taken a two-goal lead against Arsenal, they are, as per market odds, the favourites to go into the final of the Carabao Cup. This means they are likeliest to blank in Gameweek 29.
Now looking at the above image, it is very likely that Newcastle United (and Crystal Palace who they face) will blank in Gameweek 29 – and therefore double in Gameweek 33. I will talk about reverse-engineering the need for chips later but the point is there is every chance you might need the Free Hit chip to navigate through the period after Gameweek 30.
The talk about balance here is just because Newcastle United and Crystal Palace have a blank in Gameweek 29, do you ignore their in-form, ticker-topping prospects for the foreseeable? In my opinion, the answer in short is no. I am not saying get six players from Newcastle and Crystal Palace but if you’re looking to replace a defender and have a £5.0m budget, Lewis Hall and Daniel Munoz are comfortably two of the best options around. Similarly, the likes of Anthony Gordon, Eberechi Eze, Jacob Murphy and Ismaila Sarr are among the better picks available in the midfield bracket at the moment.
The one thing to also note is if you do Free Hit in Gameweek 29, the fixtures for Crystal Palace and Newcastle United immediately following Gameweek 30 are pretty good. Palace play Southampton (away) and Brighton and Hove Albion (home). Newcastle United play Brentford (home) and Leicester City (away). So keeping this in mind, you might just want to hold on to your players from these teams and maybe use the Free Hit chip in Gameweek 29 if need be. The two Manchester clubs have two of the juiciest fixtures in Gameweek 29.
Manchester United play Leicester City away whereas Manchester City host the Seagulls. A great couple of fixtures from a Free Hit point of view. It is worth noting that Manchester United also have a great run of fixtures until Gameweek 30 and definitely don’t blank in Gameweek 29.
The idea to cite this is because the other blank will either be Aston Villa v Liverpool (if Liverpool beat Spurs in the second leg) or Fulham vs Tottenham Hotspur (If Spurs beat Liverpool). The above teams also have a fair share of FPL interest.
3. Reverse Engineering and figuring where we will need chips
Now on paper, if you’re heavy on Newcastle United and Crystal Palace already (or are looking to buy from those teams), and if Liverpool also blank in Gameweek 29, there will be a strong urge to play the Free Hit chip in Gameweek 29.
The state of play is such that those teams that blank in Gameweek 29 will likely double in Gameweek 33. Teams that are in the semi-final of the FA Cup will blank in Gameweek 34 and then likely double in Gameweek 36.
Now, since the clubs that blank in Gameweek 34 are the same ones that will likely double in Gameweek 36, we might (or might not) need a Free Hit to navigate through the period.
The point is we still don’t know the schedule, who goes ahead in the FA Cup (as well as the Carabao Cup to be fair) and are far from establishing our chip strategies. We will have a lot more information by the time Gameweek 25 comes around:
- We will know if there is a double for Liverpool in Gameweek 24 or 25, if at all
- We will know the final blankers in Gameweek 29 and the doublers in Gameweek 33
- We will have more accurate FA Cup probabilities
You will have a clearer picture of chip usage after that. Some additional loose pieces of thoughts and information in my head are:
- The Assistant Manager chip has a very high upside so I would like to play it in a double and try getting extra points from an extra game. This means that I will likely use one of the Bench Boost/ Free Hit/Triple Captain in the other big double, which is why the other two chips need to be used in a single Gameweek or an earlier Double Gameweek.
- If Newcastle United do beat Arsenal in the Carabao Cup semi-final, the idea of cheap assets from Newcastle and Crystal Palace are appealing from a Bench Boost point of view in Gameweek 33
These are just some early building blocks while we add on and formulate strategies for the second half of the season. Nothing is set in stone but be patient with your transfers and pay close attention to the fixtures.
We discuss it in length on this week’s episode of The FPL Wire where Pras gives us a helicopter view of the same. You can view that below:
