With the Gameweek and Wildcard deadline approaching at pace, it’s time to chew the fat with Paddy Power to see if his odds can sway our thinking when it comes to last minute tinkering.
Complete with some double Gameweek specials, a United vs City preview and a tempting Money Back Special on the early kick-off at Old Trafford, here’s this week’s Paddy rundown…
Who Will Keep a Clean Sheet?
- Arsenal 1.83 (WOL) dgw
- Liverpool 1.83 (WIG)
- Chelsea 2.25 (ful)
- Man United 2.37 (MCY)
- Blackburn 2.75 (NEW)
- Birmingham 2.80 (STK) dgw
- West Brom 3.00 (WHM) dgw
- Stoke 3.10 (bir)
Even off the back of a home win against league leaders Man United, Wolves are fancied to draw blood against Arsenal this weekend. A poor average of 0.75gsa (goals scored away) this campaign agrees with Paddy’s prediction, however Arsenal’s defence at the Emirates has been prone to a lapse and, if Arsene Wenger rests Johan Djourou for the midweek clash with Barcelona, the home cleanie looks less secure. The smart money says that the Gunners will hold their nerve after being on the receiving end of Newcastle’s record-breaking comeback and if Djourou starts, they look well placed for a fifth shut-out in six league matches.
Liverpool are tied at the top of Paddy’s odds and sport an impressive run of form at the back, with a healthy 0.77gch (goals conceded at home) to boot. Opponents Wigan appear to pose little threat with a mere 0.83gsa and, despite their goal glut in the win over Blackburn. Liverpool meanwhile have amassed four cleensheets in a row, the most recent of which came at Stamford Bridge. Paddy’s odds look pretty sound then, with Martin Kelly (if fit) set to continue to as a strong budget option at the back.
Chelsea and league leaders Man United feature next, both a shade over even money, both facing stern competition. On the road, Chelsea have only attained 3 cleansheets, in comparison to their 8 at home, and face a Fulham side seeming increasingly settled under manager Mark Hughes. This one looks shaky to us – Mark even tipped a home win on the ScoutCast this week. While I’m not sure about that, Chelsea’s cleanie does look vulnerable.
Man City travel down the road to Old Trafford for the second Manchester Derby of the season in the early kick-off. The first clash was a drab affair, offering little for the neutrals. Will we get the same again? Rio Ferdinand’s absence at the back for United will provide City with a few more chinks of light and significantly Paddy’s odds lengthened from 2.20 to 2.37 overnight – perhaps a low-scoring draw is the most likely outcome here.
Anytime Goalscorer
- R Van Persie 1.44 (WOL) dgw
- L Suarez 1.72 (WIG)
- D Bent 1.83 (blp)
- M Chamakh 1.90 (WOL) dgw
- C Fabregas 2.00 (WOL) dgw
- A Arshavin 2.00 (WOL) dgw
- N Bendtner 2.00 (WOL) dgw
- D Kuyt 2.25 (WIG)
- D N’Gog 2.25 (WIG)
- P Odemwingie 2.30 (WHM) dgw
- F Torres 2.30 (ful)
- D Drogba 2.30 (ful)
- T Walcott 2.40 (WOL) dgw
- W Rooney 2.37 (MCY)
- D Berbatov 2.37 (MCY)
- C Vela 2.50 (WHM) dgw
- DJ Campbell 2.50 (AVL) dgw
- J Defoe 2.50 (sun) dgw
Robin Van Persie has established himself as the most consistent form striker in the league and it’s no surprise to see him topping the Anytime Goalscorer market this week. Netting 7 goals in his last 4 games and featuring twice in this Gameweek (hopefully),Van Persie has been the hot property this week and will be sporting the armband for thousands against Wolves later today. Paddy’s price here – 1.44 is the shortest they’ve gone for any striker in any game this season. The planets seem to be aligning for Van Persie.
Liverpool’s new hitman Luis Suarez is favoured by Paddy’s odds this week, coming in second in the market. The Uruguayan will be eager to make his mark again following his debut goal and Wigan’s away record of 1.5gca (goals conceded away) should grant him every opportunity if Dalglish throws him in from the start at Anfield.
Steady scorer Darren Bent has been welcomed by Aston Villa faithful, already helping take the scalp of Man City and finding a consolation at Man United. His FPL price of 8.8m looks a bit much for a striker without the lure of a double fixture but Bent certainly looks a handy differential and Paddy rate him this weekend.
Significantly Arsenal are so strongly backed for goals against Wolves, they offer four attacking players with Cesc Fabregas’ odds looking particularly short considering he has yet to catch fire since his return from injury.
Peter Odemwingie once again sits above big guns like Torres, Drogba and Rooney, a sight that is becoming more and more familiar. With Roy Hodgson newly installed at the Hawthorns helm, the Nigerian shouldn’t struggle to find the motivation here and will be expected to improve on his 9-goal season haul. With the Baggies playing both West Ham and Wolves at home in the Gameweek, Fantasy investors will be hoping and expecting for at least a 2 goal return.
Paddy’s United vs City Preview
This afternoon derby promises to be more competitive than it has been for quite some time but from a neutral’s point of view, the biggest concern is that we’ll be served up another turgid display between two sides who have only really managed only a handful of truly convincing performances between them this season.
The way Roberto Mancini has set his teams out against his title rivals doesn’t bode well and another 0-0 draw at 8/1 is a distinct possibility. City have scored just once in five games against United, Spurs, Chelsea and Arsenal, with three of those five games ending 0-0. It’s clear that when the pressure is on the Italian reverts to type and focuses firmly on avoiding defeat. A fifth shut-out against a title rival in this game is 7/2 if you fancy them to hold firm.
Rio Ferdinand, though perhaps over-rated, does form a reliable partnership with Vidic and when he’s been absent from the team this season, Ferguson has struggled to find a satisfactory replacement from his underwhelming list of options. With the addition of Dzeko and the improvement of David Silva, City have been more potent going forward or late and for all his off-field attitude problems, once he’s on the pitch Carlos Tevez has been excellent this season. He may feel he has a point to prove, especially if the home fans get on his back, and he’s well priced at 6/1 to score first and 15/8 to score anytime. He certainly looks better value than the sporadic Berbatov and the not-quite-back-to-his-best Rooney, both of whom are 9/2 to open the scoring.
For all the previous United bashing their record at home is near perfect, which is more of a testament to the manager’s ability to instil belief in his players than it is to the general standard of their play. That record is the reason why the home side are odds on at 4/5 but with Ferdinand gone and their unbeaten run ended, the draw at 12/5 and City to win at 15/4 both provide better value.
Paddy’s Money Back Special…
The Money Back Special is a “Feast or Famine” offer for the early kick-off at Old Trafford. If this game finishes scoreless or it has more than four goals, Paddy Power will refund all losing 1st /last goalscorer, correct score and scorecast singles on the match.
Click here for this and other Paddy odds…
Paddy’s Scout Specials
We’ve had a host of specials from Paddy running this week, all tying in with our double Gameweek selections.
Peter Odemwingie to score 3 or more goals in the Gameweek 7/1 (8.00)
Charlie Adam to score 2 or more goals in the Gameweek 6/1 (7.00)
Arsenal to keep two clean sheets in the Gameweek 5/2 (3.50)
Cesc Fabregas to score 2 or more goals in total in the Gameweek 6/4 (2.50)
Robin Van Persie to score 3 or more goals in total in the Gameweek 13/8 (2.62)
Robert Huth to score a header against Arsenal 16/1 (17.00)
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