The Burning Question – Is Lukaku A Risk Worth Taking?

Next up in our series of Burning Question articles, we cast an eye over Chelsea’s in-form Belgian forward ahead of double Gameweek 1. Home games against Hull and Villa have Romelu Lukaku firmly on Fantasy radars – currently the third most popular frontline option in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game, with over 22% ownership, plenty are willing to take a punt as they look to get quickly out the blocks.

With both Demba Ba and Fernando Torres vying for a starting berth as Jose Mourinho’s lone striker, the issue of minutes over the pair of matches is something of a concern, bearing in mind there’s a trip to Old Trafford the following Sunday. Having racked up five goals and two assists over just 256 minutes this summer, though, Lukaku’s form gives our contributors plenty to consider.

Evs says….
Quite simply, I would say yes. I am not convinced Jose Mourinho is thrilled by a poacher such as Demab Ba, and will he really turn to a second-gear Fernando Torres? I’m not having it.

Unless a move for Wayne Rooney is fast-tracked, I see Lukaku as the only real option up front for Mourinho; he can hold the ball up, bring in Chelsea’s weapons in midfield and has the ability to turn and run at opponents. The comparison with Didier Drogba is lazy but it’s also a good fit.

Lukaku’s numbers speak for themselves: 31 goals in two seasons at Anderlecht (he scored 131 goals in 93 games at youth level) plus last season at the Hawthorns he netted 17 times in 35 games – again, a ratio of a goal every other game. In his year-long spell at the Baggies, the Belgian netted six times in 15 substitute appearances including a hat-trick against United, so no worries there.

I suspect he’ll start at least one of the two matches in Gameweek 1 but, even if he doesn’t feature in the first XI in both, I will settle for 20 minutes off the bench in either – he’s explosive enough to make the difference with limited pitch-time.

Tinkerman says….
No doubt Fantasy managers will be looking at the two very favourable fixtures in the first Gameweek and anticipating a slew of goals from Chelsea. Lukaku seems to have been handed his fair share of pre-season minutes and has responded well with goals, assists and some lively performances. Jose Mourinho will surely be mindful of the fact that the Belgian outscored both Fernando Torres and Demba Ba in the league last season, despite having played over 500 minutes less than either of his fellow-forwards.

Judging by Mourinho’s comments, however, rotation is a real worry and I suspect he will make full use of his squad over the double Gameweek, especially given the importance of the fixture at Old Trafford on Sunday week. This would likely see Lukaku playing significantly fewer than the 180 possible minutes over the two Gameweek 1 fixtures, with a real possibility of him starting on the bench in one of the matches against Hull and Villa.

Many will point out that he didn’t need much game time last term to rack up the goals. Regardless of this, we have to take into account the fact that starting with Lukaku leaves us facing an additional tough decision: we either bench him in Gameweek 3 (as well as having a dilemma the previous weekend when he plays against United) or use a precious transfer to swap him for another player after one or two Gameweeks. I personally think he has the potential to score well in the opening Gameweek, but I’d rather pay more attention to the prospects of alternatives who seem guaranteed to get close to 270 minutes over the first three Gameweeks and who don’t require us to factor in the use of a transfer.

Spencer says…
Looking at the Blues’ fixtures for the double Gameweek, I feel that a Chelsea forward is a must have. No disrespect to their opposition, but Hull are newly promoted and Lambert’s teams have never been the best defensively. So who are the contenders?

For all his recent gongs – the Golden Boot in Euro 2012 and this year’s Confederations Cup – Fernando Torres still fails to convince on the Premier League stage. As for Demba Ba, his 38 goals in just 80 appearances in the Premier League is impressive but I question whether he play as the lone striker role in Mourinho’s preferred formation.

That leaves Lukaku. While 17 goals in 43 appearances is less impressive than his two rivals, he is seemingly ready-made to fit Mourinho’s tactics. Big, strong, and powerful, the Belgian has all attributes that Mourinho likes in his forwards and, for me, that will see him get the minutes that will repay Fantasy investment.

Applebonkers says…
For the double Gameweek I really think so. While he seems unlikely to get 180 minutes, paying 8.0 for a striker who looks good to start at least one of the games looks a bargain – particularly if that game is against promoted Hull. As a guilty recipient of his 16 points off the bench in Gameweek 38 last season, we’ve also seen how he can impact matches without earning starts.

Beyond the double, Torres has the European experience (and goals last season) which Lukaku and Ba both lack – the Spaniard looks favourite to start the European Super Cup against Bayern Munich after Gameweek 2, adding more weight to Lukaku’s chances of going up against a United defence. We have to consider that Mourinho will have seen his hat-trick against the champions on the final day of 2012/13 and United’s rearguard will hardly relish an early re-union with Lukaku’s pace and power – as the most advanced central attacker, either in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, he could still thrive on limited game time. After that, I’d consider other options. Sell for Chelsea’s blank Gameweek 3 and monitor the rotation policy.

Mark Says…
To be honest, I’m still smarting from pinning Lukaku to my bench for his final day hat-trick. Despite that, I have to consider revisiting the Belgian from the off given the double Gameweek prospects. As I’ve stated in the previous “Burning Question”, I don’t see too many of Mourinho’s men given more than 100 minutes over their two Gameweek 1 home fixtures. Even so, Lukaku has the confidence and weaponry to inflict plenty of damage given those minutes, fed ammunition by the likes of Hazard, Mata and Oscar.

I just wonder if Mourinho will opt for Lukaku at Old Trafford on Sunday week, or whether he’ll go for the experience of Fernando Torres. True enough, Lukaku’s fateful hat-trick in Gameweek 38 proved his ability to dismantle the United rearguard but the prospects at Old Trafford a week into the season look very different to that final day showpiece. If he’s kept out of that cauldron, we could be looking at limited minutes over the first three Gameweeks. With the blank to follow, a price drop could loom and suddenly, Lukaku owners will feel pushed into a change or risk losing early cash.

Having said that, Lukaku will make it into at least one of my Fantasy lineups – probably Sky Sports. I’m undecided whether that will translate to my Fantasy Premier League squad, as yet. Much depends on whether I find a place for Hazard in midfield. As I’ve mentioned previously, Chelsea’s assets come with a health risk – a ticket to frustration. I’m unsure if I want to opt for a double helping.