Ex-FPL champion Simon March: How to avoid the correlation-causation fallacy

Ex-FPL winner Simon March discusses the spurious correlations between data sets that we Fantasy managers often pounce on
| Player | Team | Price | Progress | Tonight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogers | AVL | 7.6m | 100.7% | Very Likely |
| Garner | EVE | 5.1m | 99.7% | Likely |
| Saliba | ARS | 5.9m | 93.0% | Unlikely |
| Gabriel | ARS | 6.7m | 88.2% | Unlikely |
| Kelleher | BRE | 4.5m | 89.6% | Unlikely |
| Ødegaard | ARS | 7.8m | 88.8% | Unlikely |
| Enzo | CHE | 6.4m | 85.3% | Unlikely |
| Dorgu | MUN | 4.2m | 81.8% | Unlikely |
| Thiago | BRE | 7.1m | 75.2% | Unlikely |
| Palmer | CHE | 10.4m | 73.2% | Unlikely |
| Frimpong | LIV | 5.7m | 68.6% | Unlikely |
| Bruno G. | NEW | 7.2m | 62.6% | Unlikely |
| Roefs | SUN | 4.9m | 63.1% | Unlikely |
| E.Le Fée | SUN | 4.9m | 55.3% | Unlikely |
| Truffert | BOU | 4.5m | 54.7% | Unlikely |
| Thiaw | NEW | 5.1m | 53.3% | Unlikely |
| Mitchell | CRY | 5.0m | 50.6% | Unlikely |
| Rice | ARS | 7.3m | 46.5% | Unlikely |
| Mané | WOL | 4.5m | 48.5% | Unlikely |
| Schade | BRE | 7.1m | 48.7% | Unlikely |
| Dúbravka | BUR | 4.0m | 46.8% | Unlikely |
| Wissa | NEW | 7.3m | 46.8% | Unlikely |
| A.Becker | LIV | 5.4m | 45.7% | Unlikely |
| McGinn | AVL | 5.4m | 44.7% | Unlikely |
| Xhaka | SUN | 5.2m | 44.3% | Unlikely |
| Tielemans | AVL | 5.9m | 43.5% | Unlikely |
| Igor Jesus | NFO | 5.8m | 43.2% | Unlikely |
| L.Paquetá | WHU | 5.9m | 43.5% | Unlikely |
| Konaté | LIV | 5.4m | 42.2% | Unlikely |
| Šeško | MUN | 7.2m | 41.1% | Unlikely |
| Dalot | MUN | 4.5m | 42.1% | Unlikely |
| Lewis-Potter | BRE | 4.9m | 40.7% | Unlikely |
| Cherki | MCI | 6.8m | 40.5% | Unlikely |
| Hall | NEW | 5.3m | 37.5% | Unlikely |
| Kayode | BRE | 4.5m | 37.4% | Unlikely |
| James | CHE | 5.7m | 36.7% | Unlikely |
| Martinez | MUN | 4.8m | 34.9% | Unlikely |
| Mykolenko | EVE | 4.9m | 34.0% | Unlikely |
| Matheus N. | MCI | 5.5m | 33.4% | Unlikely |
| Wharton | CRY | 5.0m | 33.2% | Unlikely |
| Player | Team | Price | Progress | Tonight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Williams-Barnett | TOT | 4.5m | 10.4% | Likely |
| Marc Guiu | CHE | 4.3m | 100.3% | Very Likely |
| Bettinelli | MCI | 3.9m | 96.3% | Maybe |
| Fraser | WOL | 4.3m | 96.5% | Maybe |
| Harriman-Annous | ARS | 4.5m | 91.5% | Maybe |
| Sousa | AVL | 3.9m | 95.9% | Maybe |
| Bellegarde | WOL | 5.2m | 96.4% | Maybe |
| Okafor | LEE | 5.5m | 94.3% | Unlikely |
| Adams | BOU | 5.0m | 94.3% | Unlikely |
| Mount | MUN | 5.9m | 91.5% | Unlikely |
| Robertson | LIV | 5.8m | 93.6% | Unlikely |
| Lewis | MCI | 4.7m | 93.0% | Unlikely |
| Abdullahi | SUN | 4.3m | 92.2% | Unlikely |
| Fer López | WOL | 5.2m | 91.9% | Unlikely |
| Cunha | MUN | 8.2m | 84.8% | Unlikely |
| Gusto | CHE | 5.0m | 90.4% | Unlikely |
| Dowman | ARS | 4.3m | 90.5% | Unlikely |
| Damsgaard | BRE | 5.8m | 89.2% | Unlikely |
| G.Rodriguez | WHU | 4.8m | 89.3% | Unlikely |
| Ward-Prowse | WHU | 5.6m | 87.9% | Unlikely |
| Rees-Dottin | BOU | 4.4m | 87.4% | Unlikely |
| Kudus | TOT | 6.4m | 85.9% | Unlikely |
| Marsh | CRY | 4.5m | 86.3% | Unlikely |
| Kovačić | MCI | 5.9m | 82.1% | Unlikely |
| Arthur | BRE | 3.9m | 82.4% | Unlikely |
| Benitez | CRY | 4.0m | 82.7% | Unlikely |
| Phillips | MCI | 4.8m | 80.6% | Unlikely |
| Roberts | BUR | 4.4m | 79.4% | Unlikely |
| Gana | EVE | 5.4m | 77.2% | Unlikely |
| Poveda | SUN | 4.8m | 77.1% | Unlikely |
| Henderson | CRY | 5.1m | 75.2% | Unlikely |
| M.Salah | LIV | 14.0m | 74.7% | Unlikely |
| Meslier | LEE | 4.2m | 72.5% | Unlikely |
| R.Williams | LIV | 3.8m | 70.6% | Unlikely |
| Neil | SUN | 4.8m | 70.7% | Unlikely |
| Bajcetic | LIV | 4.3m | 69.8% | Unlikely |
| Ebere | EVE | 4.4m | 69.2% | Unlikely |
| Grealish | EVE | 6.5m | 67.9% | Unlikely |
| Peart-Harris | BRE | 4.4m | 69.3% | Unlikely |
| Bergvall | TOT | 5.3m | 69.0% | Unlikely |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | ARS | C, Vs | |
| No Change | EVE | B, Vs | |
| Up | BHA | C, Vs | |
| Up | AVL | C, Vs | |
| No Change | BRE | A | |
| No Change | BUR | B, £ |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Up | ARS | A, Vs | |
| No Change | EVE | B, Vs, Inj | |
| Up | SUN | A, £ | |
| Up | BHA | C, Vs | |
| Up | AVL | C, Vs | |
| Up | NEW | C, Vs | |
| No Change | CRY | C | |
| Down | LIV | B | |
| Down | MCI | C | |
| Down | FUL | B |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | ARS | A, Vs | |
| No Change | MCI | B | |
| No Change | MUN | B | |
| Up | AVL | A, Vs | |
| Up | NEW | B, Vs | |
| Down | BOU | A | |
| Down | LIV | A | |
| No Change | EVE | C, Vs | |
| No Change | BRE | A | |
| No Change | BHA | C, Vs, Inj | |
| No Change | NFO | C, £ |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | MCI | A | |
| No Change | LIV | A | |
| No Change | WHU | B, Vs | |
| Up | AVL | A, Vs | |
| Up | LEE | A | |
| Down | BRE | C |

Ex-FPL winner Simon March discusses the spurious correlations between data sets that we Fantasy managers often pounce on

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Joe, Seb and Karam look at the key issues facing FPL managers ahead of Gameweek 35

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We take our final look at the remaining schedule