Group A is possibly the trickiest one of all to call; South Africa are the outsiders of the four even though up until now, every single World Cup host nation has qualified for the knockout stages. One look at the bookies odds reflect how close this group is in comparison to the others.
With there being no real dark horse, all of the four teams involved have realistically something to offer -in the group stages at least- and it’s hard to write off any with some degree of certainty.
France -almost in spite of head coach Raymond Domenech- are the likeliest team to top the group if they play to their potential, but it would be no real surprise for any of the other three teams to finish in second. Mexico and Uruguay are capable of some fantastic football but both can sometimes flatter to deceive. South Africa would surely be rank group outsiders if the tournament wasn’t on home soil, but with the vuvuzela-crazy home fans spurring them on, a last 16 finish isn’t beyond them; as last year’s Confederations Cup showed, it took a Dani Alves goal two minutes from time for Brazil to deprive them a place in the final.
If France win the group, they’d play the runners-up in Group B, likely to be Greece, Nigeria or South Korea with Argentina expected to top that particular table. France would be hot favourites to book a place in the quarter finals then, where, if results follow form, a meeting with England would be on the cards. The second-placed team in Group A look likely to have the misfortune of facing Diego Maradona’s superstars so Fantasy potential from their ranks looks limited to the group stages. Investment in the likes of South Africa, Mexico and Uruguay, particularly in Fantasy games which don’t allow a clearout in preparation for the knockout rounds, looks a gamble…
France
France are nowhere near the force they once were and, quite frankly, perhaps still should be. With Laurent Blanc primed and ready to take over the reins once their tournament is over, it’s pretty clear that the French FA have no real faith in their current boss. A team that can boast a midfield with the likes of Franck Ribery, Youann Gourcuff and Florent Malouda should be a threat to any opposition, but the inability of Domenech to instill any real team spirit or find the correct formation and player selection has seen them struggle for any sort of cohesion.
However, recent friendlies have seen the manager alter the team’s formation; whether the loss of Lassana Diarra (the midfielder with most starts in qualification) was instrumental in his thinking, but the 4-5-1 he previously persisted with has been dismissed, much to the delight of the players.
Playing in a 4-3-3 formation that focuses on allowing players to flourish in their true positions, France have dominated recent matches against Costa Rica (61% possession, 26 shots) and Tunisia (71% possession, 21 shots) with only wasteful finishing failing to reflect both matches fairly. If they control their group matches in such a manner, France are certainly the likeliest to chalk up the most clean sheets as well as offering the greatest attacking threat, given the quality throughout their team.
William Gallas has returned to fitness at centre half and will add stability to a system which allows the full-backs to push on as Jeremy Toulalan, at defensive midfield, drops deep and shields the defence. Malouda and Gourcuff have the freedom to bomb forward in the middle of the park, and up front, Anelka is flanked by Ribery on the left and Govou on the right, with a lack of form and fitness leaving Thierry Henry on the bench.
The Fantasy Targets…
Patrice Evra
The new system is ideal for a player of Evra’s attacking instincts. A nailed-on starter at left back, he’d have much of the flank for himself as Ribery, playing wide left of a front three, comes inside time and again onto his favoured right foot. Last season’s Fantasy Premier League game saw him second-highest scoring defender in terms of assists, and Evra is Les Bleus best back-four option in terms of being involved in the play going forward.
William Gallas
The only defender to find the net in qualifying, scoring twice, including “that” goal against the Republic of Ireland. His eye for goal was again apparent in the recent game against Tunisia, where he grabbed the team’s much-deserved equaliser.
Yoann Gourcuff
Afforded far more freedom in the new set-up, akin to Frank Lampard in Carlo Ancelotti’s tactical rethink last season, even down to playing alongside Florent Malouda in centre midfield. Bagged just one goal in qualifying, but his set-piece duties helped him grab five assists in addition. An outstanding playmaker, he could finally be about to transfer his league form (18 goals and 18 assists in 61 league starts over the last two seasons for Bordeaux) onto the international scene, and finally justify that “new Zidane” label to the watching world.
Franck Ribery
In recent games, Domenech seems to be taking his lead from Louis van Gaal by playing Ribery as an “inside out” winger, allowing him the left flank role he so brilliantly flourishes in at club level at Bayern. With three goals, he was France’s second-top scorer in qualifying behind Henry and Gignac, despite playing in only 6 of their 12 games.
Nicolas Anelka
With Thierry Henry struggling for both fitness and form, Anelka looks likely to the main man in the middle for France. Given his success in leading the line at club level in the absence of Didier Drogba, a role in the centre of a 4-3-3 could be more beneficial to his output than in any other of Domenech’s systems.
Mexico
Previously in danger of missing out on the tournament altogether, the Mexicans have been a team on the up ever since sacking Sven Goran Erickson and replacing him with Javier Aguirre, a move that ensured qualification. In recent friendlies, their possession football has had come with a real attacking edge, and, like France, only some poor finishing from the forward men has prevented results being a fairer reflection of the team’s performance. Their slick passing game has been impressive and tonight’s impressive win over Italy only adds weight to the suggestion that there would be no real surprise if they were to progress at the expense of history, and resultantly, host nation South Africa.
Whilst they lost just one goal in eight matches previous to the game with England, Mexico conceded three against Capello’s men and subsequently lost 2-1 in Holland, suggesting that for as much as they repel smaller teams, any quality strikers should find a way through their rearguard.
Aguirre has made sure the team have played plenty of friendlies in the build-up, with every member of the squad being given game-time in order to keep match fit. This does make predicting any first-choice XI slightly trickier, particularly in the all-important forward positions. Formations have also varied of late, as Aguirre switches between 3-4-3 and 4-4-2, though the fact he has named 5 midfielders and 8 forwards in his squad suggests the former system is the likelier of the two.
The Fantasy Targets…
Rafael Marquez
With such a mix of young and old in the Mexico squad, his presence and experience will be vital. At 31, this could be the Barcelona man’s final appearance on the biggest stage of all, and whether he plays at centre-half or fills the defensive midfield role alongside Gerardo Torrado, Marquez will add a touch of class and composure to the proceedings. Injury meant he played just 7 qualifying games, but has managed 90 appearances for his country, scoring 10 times.
Andres Guardado
Far and away the real creative talent of the team, the left-winger may well be the key to Mexico’s success. Fast, tricky and full of running from the first minute to the last, the Deportivo la Coruna man has now fully recovered from the groin injury that forced him to miss the end of La Liga last term. Scored 3 goals and missed just 2 out of 18 games in the qualifying stages, and is a guaranteed first choice for Aguirre. The likely set-piece taker too.
Cuauhtémoc Blanco
Appeared occasionally from the subs bench under Erickson, but is a key man for Aguirre, both on and off the field. However, at 37, there must be some concern over the likelihood of him lasting 90 minutes, given the number of forwards at the manager’s disposal. Recent friendlies have shown that Blanco should be the man on penalty duties, as long as he’s on the pitch; judging by Aguirre’s selection during qualifying, he’s a likelier starter than most, as his lack of pace means he’s no impact sub.
Javier Hernandez
The new Man United man has seemingly come from nowhere to not only claim a slot in the squad, but stake a claim for a first-team place. Despite making his debut in September last year, he’s already scored seven times for his country; a goal against Holland followed by two in the 5-1 demolition of Guatemala is indicative of the youngster’s fearless form of late, and it would be a brave move by Aguirre to drop “Chicharito” now.
South Africa
As mentioned above, there’s no ignoring the host-nation factor; for South Africa not to progress would go against the grain of every proceeding World Cup to date. Having returned to the helm last autumn, Carlos Alberto Parreira has made them difficult to beat, demonstrated by a recent eleven game unbeaten run, in spite of any true world-class players. They tend to vary shape according to opponent, attacking with 4-4-2 and staying more compact with a 4-5-1. With no real stand-out defenders, the Brazilian coach will want to keep it tight at the back and hope the team’s quality further up the pitch will be enough to prevail.
With the crowd behind them, it’s feasible the Bafana Bafana could muster enough points to reach the last 16, in spite of the fact they are the least technically sound in the group. Mexico’s form over the last few games, however, suggests they will be up against it… Their tournament opening game against Aguirre’s men could go a long way to deciding that second slot.
The Fantasy Targets…
Steven Pienaar
Pienaar had probably the best season of his career last term, as his play down the left of Everton’s midfield was noticed not just by fantasy managers but Premier League bosses, too. The close-season has seen a move away from Goodison Park continually talked about in the press in light of faltering contract talks.
Interestingly, recent games have seen the South Africa manager experiment with Pienaar in a centre midfield role, but Parreira has yet to decide on his final starting slot. Regardless of position, his endless energy and surging forwards runs -added to the fact he’s been taking direct free-kicks- make Pienaar fundamental to his country’s progress.
Teko Modise
One of the hottest properties in South African football, the cultured playmaker has been named Player of the Year in the domestic league for the past two seasons. Regarded as every bit as good as Pienaar, he’s been linked with a move to a host of European outfits of late (including both Milan clubs), and has netted 10 times in half a century of appearances for his country. Possessor of a cracking long shot, too.
Katlego Mphela
The man to get the goals, both from open play and from his duties as number one penalty taker. His two goals against Guatemala took the hitman to six strikes in eight games for his country this year, with Perreira managing to get the best out of his hitman. Mphela’s record at international level is a goal every second game, with last year’s Confederations Cup brace against Spain proving he can score against the very best.
Uruguay
Another team who struggled in qualifying, with a play-off win over Costa Rica seeing them scrape through in the end. If recent reports are anything to go by, Uruguay look to be playing a three-man defence in recent games, a change from their normal 4-4-2 shape. Given that both France and Mexico look likely to play with three up front, and South Africa will have the crowd screaming them on, Uruguay could well find the going tough.
Suspension to a key player, Porto winger Cristian Rodriguez has not helped their cause; an almost ever-present during qualification, he’s been dropped from the squad altogether as he was due to miss the first two group matches. With no real creative spark in the centre, Uruguay will be heavily reliant on their front two- Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez- to keep them in with a chance of progression.
The Fantasy Targets…
Diego Lugano
The team captain, Lugano is a powerful, tough tackling centre half, superb in the air at both ends of the pitch. A fantastic four goal haul in qualifying -including the vital play-off winner away to Costa Rica- is indicative of his inspirational performances.
Diego Forlan
Despite a poor record at Old Trafford, there’s no denying his quality; 62 starts, 50 goals and 16 assists for Atletico Madrid in the last 2 La Liga seasons speaks for itself. All will be dependant on Uruguay’s ability to keep possession and build chances; if they are patient enough to keep their heads and their shape, Oscar Tabarez’s team contain one of the best strike duos in the tournament. Of their 20 games in qualifying, Forlan played 15 times, grabbing 7 goals and 4 assists.
Luis Suarez
Only 23 years old, the Ajax man comes off the back of a phenomenal scoring season in Holland, where he bagged 35 league goals. A bit of a talisman for his country, too; when he scores, Uruguay don’t lose. A pacy, extremely skilful and intelligent player, he’s been linked with the likes of Arsenal, Barcelona and Man Utd recently. Bagged 5 goals and 5 assists in 19 qualifying appearances, but is a temperamental type, with a penchant for the odd yellow card or two.