February
06

Scouting the Doubles – Swansea

Filed under: Scouting The Doubles - Posted by: stilicho

A visit from QPR and a trip to Anfield comprise the menu for a Gameweek 26 feast haunted by the prospect of famine for Swansea. With goalkeepers useful instruments in double-then-blank scenarios, the uncertainty around Michel Vorm’s availability imposes an ill-timed tactical restriction on Fantasy Managers. But with strong candidates abounding in defence and midfield, we run the rule over the surviving runners and riders from the Swansea ranks as another Double Gameweek deadline approaches.

The Prospects

The insolent gung ho of Swansea’s early outings this season seems to have given way to a more pragmatic approach of late. The best away defensive record in the league has kept Fantasy Managers in business whilst the headline hogs have stumbled over an itinerant schedule. Failing to find the net in their last three away games, investors in the Swans’ attack can still repose hope in their form at the Liberty, where they average over two goals a game since Christmas.

QPR are hardly sitting ducks: Harry Redknapp’s rejuvenated charges have been in formidable defensive nick this year, shipping just one goal in their last five games. Yet with personnel changes imposed at the back for the Hoops through defection and injury, Swansea’s fluent forays will doubtless test the cohesion of the replacement draft.

Liverpool have been imperious at Anfield of late: flinging twelve goals past Fulham, Norwich and Sunderland without reply. But with European commitments on the cards midweek for the Reds, the Swans might be fortunate enough to face a weakened, or at least, slightly fatigued eleven come next Sunday.

The Likely Lads

The points may have dried up in recent weeks for Michu, but the chances certainly haven’t. In spite of a seven game goalless run the Spanish sensation still tops the ownership charts on 49%, and those brave or foolish enough to forgo his services run the risk of being precipitated headlong down the rankings when he locates his shooting boots. Marouane Fellaini’s brace last weekend after a similarly barren spell furnished a valuable, some might say painful, reminder of the value of patience in Fantasy football – and whether leading the line or tucked in the hole, Michu will have no shortage of backers come Saturday. Currently priced at 8.4 in FPL (5.5 in Sky Sports) and languishing a distant fourth in this week’s captaincy poll, Fantasy Managers have the rare opportunity to make the most widely owned player in the game a differential captain in a double Gameweek.

Having spent most of the season deeper than Wittgenstein and scratching out an honest dollar from the Swansea set plays, a couple of elegant open play strikes in recent weeks have showcased Jonathan De Guzman’s capacity to make merry in more advanced positions. With Leon Britton partnering Ki Sung-Yueng in the double pivot last weekend at West Ham, De Guzman was pushed forward in support of Michu – and although the experiment was terminated after an hour by the introduction of Luke Moore, it seems likely that De Guzman will be given leave to weigh anchor whenever Michu is called upon to lead the line. Priced at 5.9 in FPL (4.7 in Sky Sports), owners of the Dutch international will have dead-balls to fall back on irrespective of his open play position.

Grabbing the baton from the unfortunate Neil Taylor in Gameweek 2, and wrecking the FPL pricing curve for the Swansea defence in the process, recent watchlistee Ben Davies has been the default Swans back-line pick around these parts for many months. His tidy finish against Stoke having advertised his merits to a wider audience, the young left back is now tipping the scales at 4.6 (3.6 in Sky Sports) – a sum perhaps more consummate with the dignity of his office. Still the cheapest option on show, and with more attacking points garnered than the rest of the Swansea defence combined, Fantasy Managers are hardly overwhelmed with incentives to broaden their horizons.

That said, Angel Rangel wangles his way into the reckoning from the right. With fullbacks given license to roam in the Swansea system, the high ground is very much down the flanks in defence. Although destitute of attacking returns since Gameweek 2, Rangel versus Davies on the members’ comparison tool makes for interesting reading, and with a current price of 4.7 in FPL (5.7 in Sky Sports), just 0.1 more than Davies, the Spaniard makes a good case for consideration.

Cheeky Punt

Michu and De Guzman aside, the Swansea attack boasts more punts than an Inspector Morse box set. Wayne Routledge, Nathan Dyer and Pablo Hernandez are tussling for the two wide midfield slots, whilst Itay Shechter and Luke Moore are fighting what seems a mutually losing battle for the lone spot up top. Starting the last six and notching two assists over that spell, Pablo Hernandez is the most credible contender from the midfield melee. But only making it past the 72 minute mark twice in those six games and costing the same as De Guzman, a midrange 5.9 in FPL (6.5 in Sky Sports), the case for Hernandez might blush in the face of rigourous inquiry.

About The Author

“I never make predictions and I never will”

stilicho

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  1. Just crunched a few numbers on Rooney and RVP with a few findings;

    - RVP is actually performing better this year, than last season! 0.084points per minute now, 0.080 ppm last season
    - ROO is worse off this year, probably due to injuries though. 0.079 points per minute now, 0.081 ppm last season

    Rooney is the best value!!!
    - 0.5974 points per million invested in Rooney at 11.9 million
    - 0.5361 points per million invested in RVP at 14.1 million. IF you invested him at 13.0 million he is still 0.5815 points per million. Still lower than Rooney at his current price.

    Data;
    RVP 12/13: 2028 minutes / 171 points = 0.084 points per minute, 7.56p per 90 minutes
    RVP 11/12: 3331 minutes / 269 points = 0.080 points per minute, 7.2p per 90 minutes
    -----------------
    ROO 12/13: 1290 minutes / 102 points = 0.079 points per minute, 7.11p per 90 minutes
    ROO 11/12: 2830 minutes / 230 points = 0.081 points per minute, 7.29p per 90 minutes

    Thoughts on this?

    • 1 year, 6 months ago
    1. Well I am on the Rooney camp and own him. But RVP is much more consistant so a better C option for the lazy manager.

      • 1 year, 6 months ago
      1. His history this season looks pretty consistent to me. I think this is a myth.

        • 1 year, 6 months ago
    2. Thoughts are, tremendous research. I owned Rooney over RVP for a time this season and it scared me so much i managed it for no more than 4 weeks. I wont be rushing back into that.

      • 1 year, 6 months ago
      1. Thanks. Rooney is basically more explosive, kinda like Bale. You either need to keep him/Bale over 4-5 weeks to be certain you get his avg ppg.

        • 1 year, 6 months ago
    3. The problem is, if I sold RVP for Rooney I don't want to really upgrade elsewhere except my bench fodder, and I already have plans for them.

      • 1 year, 6 months ago
      1. Welll then Herr Vets, you must be a very satisfied manager these days if you don't want to upgrade elsewhere...surely you must have Achiebe /Bentenke as a 3rd forward?

        • 1 year, 6 months ago
    4. Not sure about your points per million stats.

      e.g. RVP = 171 points / 14.1m = 12.13 ppm
      Rooney = 102 points / 11.8m = 8.6 ppm

      • 1 year, 6 months ago
    5. Yeah it's all down to minutes played on the pitch...i posted the same a couple of days ago. RVP isn't the best Fantasy player, he is only one of the best...Walcott achieves a full point more than him per 90 and Mata 0.5 points per 90 min as does Lamps....The difference is the minutes played...Will that continue ?

      • 1 year, 6 months ago
    6. Great work. RVP will be my C all day long!

      • 1 year, 6 months ago
    7. I think the issue here is consistency. If you captain RVP most weeks then your returns are better than captaining rooney. I imagine this would skew the conclusion stating that Rooney is better value although i won't work it out myself

      • 1 year, 6 months ago
  2. anyone remember my RVP vs Suarez annlyse??

    http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2012/07/16/scout-report-fabio-borini/comment-page-1/#comment-3426126

    it's so funny to see all those people who constantly hasrshed Suarez to have him in their teams now

    • 1 year, 6 months ago
    1. Suarez is good mate but he's no Jack Wilshere.

      • 1 year, 6 months ago
    2. You really are in the mood today aren't you Forca?

      • 1 year, 6 months ago
      1. And to be fair to 'everyone else', i think everyone hated the man and agreed he was a good footballer.

        • 1 year, 6 months ago
      2. yes i am

        well i didnt drink full 2 months so that could be a reason ;)

        • 1 year, 6 months ago
        1. Crack open that bottle and get on with it! :)

          • 1 year, 6 months ago
            • 1 year, 6 months ago
    3. Well it is a double so it is understandable. I personally wont, but cant say I feel comfortable with that.

      • 1 year, 6 months ago
    4. He's in for the gw and then out again, although I have had him this season. I think Studge is simply better value, will take points off him and allows me to have Kun.

      • 1 year, 6 months ago
      1. RVP and Suarez WILL out score Kun and Strurridge :D

        • 1 year, 6 months ago
    5. Funny to see how you have RVP now.

      And still, RVP>Suarez.

      • 1 year, 6 months ago
  3. Anyone have Alfie???

    • 1 year, 6 months ago
  4. I kind of hope Everton do have a DGW, gives me a nice excuse to bring back the boy Baines

    • 1 year, 6 months ago
  5. I would play Cole ahead of Baines for England every time. Baines is a more exciting player and a far better attacking prospect but Everton sacrifice CS in order to let Baines do what he does. They are pretty sloppy at the back these days and International tournaments require more security at the back which Cole provides. The experience and consistency Cole has has major tournaments puts him way ahead also.

    • 1 year, 6 months ago
    1. Cole is the better defender, no doubt. Hodgson will always err on the side of caution. In order to play Baines other sacrifices would have to be made into the starting lineup.

      • 1 year, 6 months ago
  6. Saurez is brilliant. Too bad he has to feed to Cavani, who is wasteful

    • 1 year, 6 months ago
  7. "Grabbing the baton from the unfortunate Neil Taylor in Gameweek 2, and wrecking the FPL pricing curve for the Swansea defence in the process" - Quality.

    • 1 year, 6 months ago
  8. Any word on Sturridge being fit for the 2 game weeks ?

    • 1 year, 6 months ago

Scout Picks

For Gameweek 3

  • Krul
  • Caulker
  • Kolarov
  • Dummett
  • Fábregas
  • Ramsey
  • Sigurdsson
  • de Jong
  • Jovetic
  • Rooney
  • Aguero
  • Williams
  • Eriksen
  • Adebayor

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Fixture Ticker

The Watchlist

Goalkeepers

Last updated: 31 Aug, 2014 7:45am
Player Club Factors
No Change Krul NEW B, Vs, £
Up Mignolet LIV C, Vs
Up Begovic STO B, Vs
No Change Forster SOT B, Vs
Up De Gea MUN B
No Change Courtois CHE B
No Change Mannone SUN C, Vs, £
No Change Fabianski SWA A, Vs
Up Lloris TOT B, VsX
Up Heaton BRN B, Vs, £

Defenders

Last updated: 31 Aug, 2014 7:55am
Player Club Factors
No Change Ivanovic CHE A
Up Clyne SOT B, Vs, £
Up Lovren LIV B, Vs
Up Shawcross STO B, Vs
Up Janmaat NEW A, £
No Change Jones MUN C, Vs
No Change Taylor SWA B, Vs, £
No Change Van Aanholt SUN C, Vs, £
Down Ward CPL C
No Change Caulker QPR B
Up Duff BRN B, Vs, £
No Change Vertonghen TOT B, VsX
Up Coleman EVE B

Midfielders

Last updated: 1 Sep, 2014 11:22am
Player Club Factors
Up Sterling LIV A, Vs
Down Ramsey ARS B
No Change Fábregas CHE A
No Change Sigurdsson SWA A
No Change Hazard CHE B
Up Dyer SWA A, £
Up Tadic SOT B, Vs
Up Sánchez ARS B
Up Puncheon CPL B, £
Up Henderson LIV B, Vs
No Change Larsson SUN B, Vs, £
Down Eriksen TOT C
No Change Cabella NEW B, Vs
Down Mata MUN B, Vs
Down Silva MCI B
Up Arfield BRN C, Vs, £

Forwards

Last updated: 31 Aug, 2014 7:47am
Player Club Factors
No Change Diego Costa CHE A
Up Sturridge LIV B, Vs
Down Rooney MUN C, Vs
No Change Aguero MCI B, Rest, Inj
No Change Adebayor TOT B
Up Naismith EVE A, £
Up Pellè SOT B, Vs
Down Jovetic MCI B
Up Emmanuel Rivière NEW C, Vs, £
Down Bony SWA C, Vs
Up Austin QPR B
Up Jutkiewicz BRN C, Vs, £

Selection Factors

A, B, C Current Form
Vs Favourable Fixtures
VsX Unfavourable Fixtures
Rest Rotation Risk
Inj Injured/Returning from Injury
OoP Out of Position
£ Potential Bargain
Sus Suspended/Near Suspension

“Petr is an amazing goalkeeper, but the difference between them is ten years and we think we have to make a decision about the future of the club and to give the goal to Courtois”

Jose Mourinho Chelsea Manager