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26 August 2014 25 comments
RedLightning RedLightning
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If you look at the Transfers or Statistics tabs on the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) website you will find a metric called points per game. We often abbreviate this to ppg, and it refers to points per appearance.

In some cases it is useful to just work out a player’s ppg from the point at which they join a new club (e.g. Mata last season) or become a regular starter for their team (for instance, Theo Walcott in the 2012-13 season). Points per start can also be useful if there is reason to believe that the player will start more regularly in future.

But there are some who prefer to use points per 90 minutes (pp90m), but this measurement can be misleading. For example, Manchester City’s Stevan Jovetic had a pp90m of 8.3 last season, but his ppg was only 2.6. If Jovetic plays more minutes per game this season and his form remains the same as before then I would expect his average FPL score this season to be somewhere between these two figures.

The problem with pp90m  is that there is no simple formula to convert the number of points that a player scores in a number of short appearances to the number that he might have scored if his appearances had all been for the full 90 minutes. It is not as simple as just dividing his total points by his minutes played and then multiplying by 90. Why not? Here are some of the reasons:

1. Substitutions not factored in.

Once a player has established his place in his team, if he is substituted after 65 minutes on average, then he should be expected to play about 65 minutes in future matches, not 90. His FPL score will be awarded for the minutes that he actually plays – FPL don’t give him any extra points for what he might have scored if he had stayed on the pitch for 90 minutes.

2. Appearance points.

A player gets one appearance point for playing 1-59 minutes, and two for playing 60-90 minutes. If he gets one appearance point for a one-minute cameo, that doesn’t mean he would have got 90 appearance points if he had played for 90 minutes. If he gets two appearance points for playing 60 minutes, that doesn’t mean he would have got three appearance points if he had played 90 minutes.

3. Clean sheet points.

A player gets four of these (if he is a defender or goalkeeper) or one (if he is a midfielder) if he plays at least 60 minutes and his team do not concede any goals while he is on the pitch (or after he has left it if he has received a red card). These points do not increase if he plays 90 minutes instead of 60 – on the contrary, they would decrease during that extra 30 minutes if the opposing team scores a late goal.

4. Bonus points

These will also be affected. It is normally much easier to earn bonus points when playing 90 minutes in a single match than if those 90 minutes are split over a couple of matches. But if a player twice scores two goals in half a match then he might get two sets of three bonus points, whereas if he scores four goals in a single match then he only gets one set of three bonus points.

5. Fatigue

Players may tire towards the end of the game, especially if they are not used to playing the full 90 minutes, so they may not be able to maintain the same level of performance if they stay on the pitch for extra minutes instead of being substituted.

6.Game of two halves

More goals are scored in second halves of games than in first halves. So an impact substitute who comes on at half time has a number of advantages over players who play the full 90 minutes. He will be less tired than those who have already played the 45 minutes of the first half, and he will be playing the halves in which more goals are likely to be scored. He is therefore likely to require fewer minutes per goal or assist than if he had played the full 90 minutes. There are many examples of impact substitutes who are less effective when playing the full 90 minutes.

RedLightning <p>Opening Day League is now closed to new entries … Top 10k Any Season (6axmwm) is only for teams with at least one previous finish in the overall top 10,000 … Multiple Top 10k Finishes (tm6cxk) is for teams with two or more previous top 10,000 finishes … January to May League (18x9rh) will start scoring in Gameweek 20 … Last Ten (rhz4za) will start scoring in Gameweek 29.</p>

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  1. @BigChrisso
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 3 months ago

    Terrific article that is well written and raises many great points. Pp90 can be good for assessing a players potential in certain circumstances and the example of Jovetic is a classic situation where it may be used to do so.
    Coming off a injury plagued season I used his Pp90 stat to see if he had any statistical foundation to continue his decent preseason form in the league. The 8.3 Pp90 gave me confidence he could produce so I went with him from GW1.
    It is a decent supporting stat that if used in considered applications can be beneficial.

    1. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 3 months ago

      Thanks, BigChrisso.

      As you say, pp90 can be a useful supporting stat in some cases, such as when a player like Jovetic has recovered from an injury and is likely to play more minutes per match in the future.

      But extrapolating the pp90 figure to estimate exactly how many points the player is likely to score if he plays the full 90 minutes in a single match is not trivial, so in most cases I prefer ppg.

    2. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 3 months ago

      IMO it was Jovetic's great form in pre-season that really put him on our watch-lists. That was when he showed what he was capable of when given the chance to play more minutes per game.

      Walcott probably had an excellent pp90m stat from his games as a sub in 2012-13 before he became a regular starter. His reason for not starting at first wasn't anything to do with fitness - it was just that Arsene Wenger was not yet convinced he was good enough to be in his starting XI. But even without looking at his pp90m, we already knew that he had potential. It was just a question of whether he was going to fulfil his promise when given the chance to play a full match. We could not be certain that he would become a big-hitter until he had actually played a few full games as a regular starter.

      Mata's case last season was rather different. He scored 30 FPL points in 13 matches for Chelsea before his transfer to United in January. I don't know how many minutes he played in these 13 matches, so I don't know whether his pp90m for them was good or bad, but it would have given very little indication of his true form. It was his form for Chelsea the previous season, when he was their star player, that told us he was likely to do very well at United.

  2. TFP
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    11 years, 3 months ago

    pp90m are ppG are both very useful stats if used properly.

    the most obvious abuse of these measures would be to use it to judge goalkeepers & use it to conclude that [say, taking an example from a few years ago] Hilario was a great keeper to have in your team because that season he'd played a single game & kept a clean sheet in it, giving him both PPG and pp90m of 6.0, making him the 'best keeper in the league' on either measure.

    many less obvious mistakes are also possible as per the article's examples.

    understand what the stats mean and use them accordingly.

    1. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 3 months ago

      True. Neither ppg nor pp90m mean very much if they are taken over too few matches and if other factors are not also taken into account.

      Trier has an outstanding ppg for his first two matches, but how well can he keep it up, and will he even keep his place in the team? If however after 5 or 10 matches he has established his place in the team and still has an impressive ppg then we ought to sit up and take notice.

      Steven Taylor has played 1 minute for 1 point, giving him a pp90m of 90.0.
      Drogba has scored 2 points in his two appearances totally 18 minutes, a pp90m of 10.0.
      If these two keep up high pp90ms with a series of similar performances, that should not make either of them a serious contender for our FPL teams.

      Chris Wood, however, has scored 6 points in two appearances totalling 20 minutes, a pp90m of 27.0, so perhaps he might be one to keep an eye on if he becomes a starter and continues to score goals, thus maintaining or improving his current ppg of 3.0. If he doesn't continue to score goals or become a regular starter though, his pp90m will be irrelevant.

  3. Crystal
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 3 months ago

    Point 3 is especially relevant which leads into #5 and #6. How many late goals do we see in games, I wish all my defenders were subbed at 61 minutes played!

  4. OShaughnessy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 3 months ago

    First off, thanks for the article.
    I love the passion this community has & it makes playing this game all that much more fun.

    After that, I do have to take exception to how you've dissected the pp90m stastic.
    90 minutes was chosen *arbitrarily* because that's the length of a football match.
    We could just as easily use pp45m & then your argument's for substitutions, appearance pts, clean sheet pts, bonus pts, fatigue & a "game of two halves" fall by the way side.

    On the whole, pp90m is only *one metric* we use to help assess a player's fantasy worth.
    It should be used in conjunction with our common sense, in order to aid us is determining a player's overall appeal.
    Your take on Jovetić & his pp90m v. ppa is a perfect example of this. It shows us that there isn't any one stastic we should look at in a vacuum & in turn feel we've learned the entire story.

    In the end, pp90m or pp45m for that matter, should still be considered as *one of the many* valuable tools in our quest to find an advantage to crush those who want to take our mini-league crowns.

    1. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 3 months ago

      After further thought, I still don't consider pp90m to be a very useful stat, but I'm coming round to the view that I ought to take more notice of two of its major components - minutes per goal and minutes per assist - together with such secondary stats as shots on target, chances created and goal conversion rate. Once you've seen Jovetic's major stats last season of 123 minutes per goal and 184 minutes per assist together with his secondary stats and his ppg, the unreliable pp90m stat does not really provide any additional useful information in my opinion.

      Congratulations on your brilliant start to the season, by the way.

  5. RedLightning
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 15 Years
    11 years, 3 months ago

    Thanks, Kyle

    I think most of those who have replied to my article agree with you that pp90m figures can be useful but should not be used on their own. There are a few out there though who quote pp90m figures in preference to ppg because they believe them to be superior.

    pp90m is a very crude measure. To obtain a more accurate forecast for a player's likely average score per match it would be necessary to:
    - Estimate how many minutes the player is likely to play
    - Remove all appearance points and replace them with a value of 2
    - Add clean sheet points according to the team's frequency of clean sheets
    - Subtract points for goals conceded according to the average number of goals conceded per match by the team
    - Scale the player's BPS points to the appropriate number of minutes, allowing for some variation and relating them to goals, assists and clean sheets, and deduce his chances of getting bonus points
    - Scale the number of a goalkeeper's saves to the appropriate number of minutes before awarding him save points
    - Scale the rest of the player's points (including goals, assists and cards) to the appropriate number of minutes.

    This looks far too complicated to be worth doing though, and it still doesn't allow for the effects of freshness and fatigue. The original super-sub David Fairclough made a habit of scoring as a late sub, but he very rarely scored multiple goals when playing a complete match.

    And if pp90m is not supposed to be an estimate of how many points a player might score in a 90 minute match, then what is it supposed to be?

    1. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 3 months ago

      (Reply Fail to Kyle O'Shaughnessy)

    2. OShaughnessy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 3 months ago

      All very interesting stuff here but, far too much for me to speak on each point.
      Ultimately, I feel you're *correct* but, nonetheless overcomplicating the matter.

      So let me focus on this aspect of my previous post; pp90m is *one* metric I use in assessing a player's overall worth however, in order for pp90m to be relevant it must be looked at in conjunction with many other underlying stastics. (SiB/p90m, kp/p90m, conversion rate, blah, blah, blah...)

      Let's first take an extreme example to illustrate my point. Last year Fabianski played 90min total & managed 7pts. No reasonable person would project him to then wind up on 266pts if he played 38 games, right? This is an incredibly small sample & historically we know teams won't keep 38 CS on the year. So, let's toss that pp90m into the statical trash heap.

      Conversely, Jovetić managed 8pp90m last year, which coupled with his ability get shots within the box (SiB), create chances for his teammates (kp) & his historically good conversion rate, tells me that if given a decent number of minutes on the pitch that I can expect a much better return than his paltry 2.6ppg.

      As a result, now Jovetić's a starter & guaranteed a decent chuck on time on field I feel great about owning him over many others in his price range as they haven't shown the ability to score at such a high rate.

      Overall, we're most likely in agreement here I wholy concede that pp90m, on it's own is a useless stastic however, if used in the correct context it can certainly assist us in determining a player's worth fantasy wise.

      Post Script
      The point I was making re: pp90m v. pp45m was just that the results of the ratio would be the same no matter how many *minutes* we choose to divide by. 90min has become the standard because it's intuitive, yeah? I mean pp37m would give us the same *number* but, in the end just wind up being overly confusing as we'd need to convert it back to a unit that made the most sense to us.
      (i.e. *one game*)

      1. RedLightning
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 15 Years
        11 years, 3 months ago

        Thanks for the detailed reply but, as I said in another reply, I feel that if you have already considered minutes per goal, minutes per assist and the other stats you mention and also applied some common sense then the pp90m stat is a misleading one that doesn't really add anything useful.

        If however pp90m is the first stat you look at, then it might sometimes point to the odd player worthy of further investigation. But you shouldn't really need to look at that stat in order too decide whether Jovetic is worth a place in your squad.

        However, it is a value that you have to calculate for yourself (unless it's available in the members tables - I haven't checked that) and it is just as easy to calculate minutes per goal and minutes per assist instead which I consider to be more useful.

        1. OShaughnessy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          11 years, 3 months ago

          Good to see we are in agreement...

          You like the goals & assists per 90min & ultimately, these are *the* key components in determining a player's pp90m.

          Wish you all the best & good luck this year mate.

          1. RedLightning
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 15 Years
            11 years, 3 months ago

            🙂

        2. Qubit
          • 16 Years
          11 years, 3 months ago

          Just wanted to say thanks for the article. Good reading and well thought out. For me, minutes per goal and mins per assist are OK, but I must admit I tend to use points per minute when assessing a players raw potential.

          Aguero for example, last year registered 0.102 points per minute. This is waaay above most other players who play anything like regularly - Rooney 0.078, Ramsey 0.083, Hazard 0.07, Sturridge 0.087. Yes, I realise that the measure is slightly skewed due to Agueros limited minutes, but basically it just re-inforces the argument for me that (especially given Suarez's departure) a fit Aguero is a must.

          I also use a spreadsheet to calculate a rating based on such things as shots in the box, shots on target etc etc. (basically the stats that have the strongest correlation with scoring goals) I find this most useful in sorting the wheat from the chaff and it provides a good measure of current form also -highlighting those who should be about yield returns even if they haven't yet.

          Drat, Ive run out of time and am late for the train! 🙂

          1. RedLightning
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 15 Years
            11 years, 3 months ago

            I agree that Aguero would be almost essential if he could keep fit, but this should be clear enough from looking at other stats, especially if you adjust his ppg to only include matches in which he has played more than 60 minutes.

            There are a number of reasons (beyond the fact that he is a very good player) why his points per minute are better than his rivals . One is that he doesn't play the full 90 minutes as often as some of the others. He often gets substituted late in the game in order to bring on a fresh pair of legs and reduce the risk of fatigue and injury, especially if City have already established a winning lead.

            But even minutes per goal and minutes per assist do not tell the whole story. Suppose he makes a number of 30 minute appearances as a late substitute and scores at a rate of a goal every 30 minutes. This indicates that he would be a very useful player to have in your team, but it doesn't mean that he will score lots of hat tricks as soon as he if fit enough to start. He will probably find it more difficult to score in the first 30 minutes of the match than in the last 30, because the opposing defenders will still be fresh and will not yet be chasing the game if they are a goal behind. And by the time he gets to the last 30 minutes he will no longer be as fresh himself. And he may well get substituted during those last 30 minutes.

            Your spreadsheet does sound like a very good idea and you have made another excellent start. Do you fancy joining my league?.

  6. Alberto Tomba
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 3 months ago

    I really hope they let you into Oxbridge otherwise your intelligence may not be fully appreciated by some of us on here! 🙂

    1. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 3 months ago

      Thanks for the compliment, Alberto, but I'm afraid it's a few years too late for that now (I hope your comment was not meant to be sarcastic). 🙂

  7. Qubit
    • 16 Years
    11 years, 3 months ago

    Both are usefull if you are aware of the limitations. I prefer to think of pp90 as a measure of raw potential (all other things being equal - which often they are not, but that is where our own assessment can come in - like if we know a player will be played more frequently and in a favourable position etc). PPG also has its issues. The truth often lies somewhere in between the 2.

    1. OShaughnessy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 3 months ago

      This is the internet, so if you could just quit making sense, pick a side, dig your heels in & irrationality defend it, that'd be great.
      Thanks. 😉

  8. ameenkw
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 3 months ago

    Bojan to Fletcher .. yay or nay?

    1. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 3 months ago

      It would probably be an improvement.

      You could also consider Naismith.

  9. Ginkapo FPL
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 3 months ago

    P90 and commonsense is better than just looking at overall score. Of course PPG is the best, but doesnt accurately look at players recovering from injury.

  10. Dino
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    11 years, 3 months ago

    Cracking article well done RL

    1. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 3 months ago

      🙂