If you look at the Transfers or Statistics tabs on the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) website you will find a metric called points per game. We often abbreviate this to ppg, and it refers to points per appearance.
In some cases it is useful to just work out a player’s ppg from the point at which they join a new club (e.g. Mata last season) or become a regular starter for their team (for instance, Theo Walcott in the 2012-13 season). Points per start can also be useful if there is reason to believe that the player will start more regularly in future.
But there are some who prefer to use points per 90 minutes (pp90m), but this measurement can be misleading. For example, Manchester City’s Stevan Jovetic had a pp90m of 8.3 last season, but his ppg was only 2.6. If Jovetic plays more minutes per game this season and his form remains the same as before then I would expect his average FPL score this season to be somewhere between these two figures.
The problem with pp90m is that there is no simple formula to convert the number of points that a player scores in a number of short appearances to the number that he might have scored if his appearances had all been for the full 90 minutes. It is not as simple as just dividing his total points by his minutes played and then multiplying by 90. Why not? Here are some of the reasons:
1. Substitutions not factored in.
Once a player has established his place in his team, if he is substituted after 65 minutes on average, then he should be expected to play about 65 minutes in future matches, not 90. His FPL score will be awarded for the minutes that he actually plays – FPL don’t give him any extra points for what he might have scored if he had stayed on the pitch for 90 minutes.
2. Appearance points.
A player gets one appearance point for playing 1-59 minutes, and two for playing 60-90 minutes. If he gets one appearance point for a one-minute cameo, that doesn’t mean he would have got 90 appearance points if he had played for 90 minutes. If he gets two appearance points for playing 60 minutes, that doesn’t mean he would have got three appearance points if he had played 90 minutes.
3. Clean sheet points.
A player gets four of these (if he is a defender or goalkeeper) or one (if he is a midfielder) if he plays at least 60 minutes and his team do not concede any goals while he is on the pitch (or after he has left it if he has received a red card). These points do not increase if he plays 90 minutes instead of 60 – on the contrary, they would decrease during that extra 30 minutes if the opposing team scores a late goal.
4. Bonus points
These will also be affected. It is normally much easier to earn bonus points when playing 90 minutes in a single match than if those 90 minutes are split over a couple of matches. But if a player twice scores two goals in half a match then he might get two sets of three bonus points, whereas if he scores four goals in a single match then he only gets one set of three bonus points.
5. Fatigue
Players may tire towards the end of the game, especially if they are not used to playing the full 90 minutes, so they may not be able to maintain the same level of performance if they stay on the pitch for extra minutes instead of being substituted.
6.Game of two halves
More goals are scored in second halves of games than in first halves. So an impact substitute who comes on at half time has a number of advantages over players who play the full 90 minutes. He will be less tired than those who have already played the 45 minutes of the first half, and he will be playing the halves in which more goals are likely to be scored. He is therefore likely to require fewer minutes per goal or assist than if he had played the full 90 minutes. There are many examples of impact substitutes who are less effective when playing the full 90 minutes.
