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The Form Gauge

The Form Gauge is a new regular article in which I’ll be taking a look back at the last four Gameweeks’ worth of statistics and analyse which teams have been on or off form. Along with this, I’ll be having a look into the fixtures for the week ahead and judging them based on their current form. Last week, the community suggested a few excellent ideas on how to improve the article, which I’ve implemented below. 

THE FORM GAUGE

Goals Scored. 
High – Chelsea (13), Everton (9), West Ham (9), Man United (8), Arsenal (8), Southampton (8).
Low – Burnley (0), West Brom (1), Sunderland (3), QPR (3), Aston Villa (3).

Goals Conceded. 
High – Everton (11), QPR (10), Newcastle (9), Crystal Palace (8).
Low – Burnley (1), Southampton (1), Sunderland (4), Aston Villa (4), Stoke (4).

Clean Sheets. 
High – Southampton (3), Burnley (3), Man United (2), Swansea (2), Aston Villa (2), West Brom (2).
Low – Hull (0), Man City (0), West Ham (0).

Failed to Score.
High – Burnley (4), West Brom (3), Aston Villa (2), Newcastle (2), QPR (2), Sunderland (2), Tottenham (2).
Low – Arsenal (0), Chelsea (0), Everton (0), Hull (0), West Ham (0).

ANALYSING THE GAMEWEEK 6 FIXTURES

(All W/D/L are based on the last four games played in all competitions.)

Liverpool (WLWL) v Everton (LWWL)
The two Merseyside clubs have both been leaky at the back recently, only picking up a single clean sheet each, with Liverpool conceding seven goals and Everton conceding 11 – the worst in the league. Despite having a poor defensive record, Everton have been excelling in front of goal, notching at least two goals a game and have scored the second highest number of goals. The Merseyside derby has an average of 3.14 goals per game across the past three seasons in all competitions and I fully expect the scoreline to reflect this, with both teams looking likely to score.

Chelsea (WWDD) v Aston Villa (LWWL)
Current table-toppers Chelsea are in fine goal-scoring form, finding the net 13 times – four more than any other club – and scoring in every match. Aston Villa have been sturdy in defence, conceding just four goals and keeping two clean sheets, but I can’t see them shutting Chelsea out, just like they couldn’t contain Arsenal at the weekend, leaking three goals. The home team has the top assister in Cesc Fabregas, and goalscorer in Diego Costa – both look set for further returns this weekend. Last season Chelsea had the best defence, yet this season it’s a different story. They’ve picked up a single clean sheet over their last four matches, but with Villa struggling to find the net – failing to score in two games and scoring three goals across the other two – I’d strongly back Chelsea to win to nil. This match looks like it will be full of goals from a home side wanting to bounce back with a win after their 1-1 draw with Man City on Sunday, which makes Diego Costa a stand-out captain choice for me.

Crystal Palace (WDDW) v Leicester (LDWW)
These two teams will go into the match with high morale after their impressive Gameweek 5 victories. Neither team has any stats which stand out to be decent or poor, apart from the fact that Crystal Palace have conceded eight goals. Both teams have found the net seven times, with five of Leicester’s coming against Manchester United. For this reason, I wouldn’t feel too comfortable playing a defender from either team.

Hull (WLDD) v Man City (LDLD)
The current Premier League champions haven’t won any games in their past four matches and are up against a Hull side who also aren’t in the best of form either. Both of these clubs are two of three teams who haven’t kept a clean sheet. Hull have been decent in front of goal and scored in every match, although the opposition wasn’t that testing, as they’ve previously faced Stoke, Aston Villa, West Ham and Newcastle. Man City should win this, although Hull may scrape a goal.

Man United (LDWL) v West Ham (D*LDW)
*Match went to penalties – West Ham lost. 
This match looks like it could be an absolute cracker of a game when looking at the stats of the two teams. United will be feeling embarrassed conceding four goals to Leicester after leading 3-1, and West Ham will be looking to take advantage of a defence that looks very shaky. The stats tell us that United have kept two clean sheets, but what it doesn’t tell us is that they were against QPR and Burnley, two teams who have been poor at scoring. West Ham haven’t been able to shut out any teams, but with Alex Song now being deployed in midfield, this will bolster West Ham’s defence. Both of these teams have been in high attacking form, with West Ham scoring nine and Man United eight, with the former scoring in every match. I feel like this game will be a high scoring match, with United coming out on top, although West Ham look capable of picking up a point.

Southampton (WWWW) v QPR (LWLD)
Southampton are the only team in the Premier League who have a 100% win rate across their past four matches in all competitions. Not only have Southampton been winning, but their stats across their past four league games are strong. They’re ranked high for goals scored (eight) and clean sheets (three), and ranked low for goals conceded (one). QPR have failed to score in two of their past four games and scored three goals in their other two, so with these stats coupled with Southampton’s strong defensive numbers, a Saints clean sheet looks likely. I also expect Southampton to score a few goals against a QPR defence which has conceded 10 goals, the second most in the league. For this match, I’d bet on Southampton to win comfortably to nil.

Sunderland (WLDD) v Swansea (WWLL)
Sunderland’s results have all been low-scoring matches bar one, where they drew 2-2 with Tottenham. The Black Cats are another team who have failed to score in half of their matches, scoring just three goals in the others, whilst at the other end of the pitch, they’ve been quite solid, only conceding four goals. In Swansea’s first two games of the four we assess, they kept clean sheets against Burnley and West Brom, with both of these games at home for the Swans. This is a match that could go either way – it could end up like Sunderland’s previous low scoring games or make for decent viewing on Match of the Day.

Arsenal (DDLW) v Tottenham (LDDL)
The north London derby was won by Arsenal in both league fixtures last season 1-0. Although last season the derby was very low scoring, across the past three seasons in all competitions, the fixture has averaged 3.42 goals per game, making it the third highest-scoring derby between Premier League teams across that time period. Mauricio Pochettino’s new club, Spurs, haven’t won a single game in their last four and have failed to score in two of their last four league games. Tottenham have only manage to beat Arsenal once at the Emirates, in the 10/11 season, since they last beat them 3-1 in the 92/93 season.

West Brom (D*LLW) v Burnley (LDDD)
*Match went to penalties – West Brom won. 
Both of these clubs have been in dire form in front of goal, with only one goal being scored between them, as West Brom beat Tottenham 1-0 at the weekend. Burnley’s defence has been their best asset, which has seen them pick up clean sheets against Man United, Crystal Palace and Sunderland, and concede only one goal to Swansea in their other game. West Brom’s defence has also managed to be effective, picking up two away clean sheets against Southampton and Tottenham. This match has 0-0 written all over it, but now I’ve said that, the legend that is Chris Brunt will score a hat-trick, Burnley will come to life and the match will end 3-3!

Stoke (WWLD) v Newcastle (WDLD)
Under-pressure Newcastle manager Alan Pardew will feel relieved that his side managed to claw back a 2-2 draw with Hull on Saturday, and will go into this match needing all three points on offer. Newcastle’s defence has been woeful over the last four league games, conceding nine goals against Crystal Palace, Southampton and Hull. Stoke’s defence on the other hand has been average, letting in four goals. This is another game that could go either way, but Pardew will need to lift morale in his struggling team.

28 Comments Post a Comment
  1. FPL price manipulators are …
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Good stuff

  2. JT's Dog
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Good work

    • Bootsy: Snoddy's Reven…
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      I like this article, and really enjoy some opinions thrown in, thanks!

    • Mata-Is-The-Juan
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Solid stuff.

    • BigManBakar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Great stuff, thanks Sarje!

    • 41212 Bayol
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Great article! I hope you keep up with this.

    • OShaughnessy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Hello Sarjeant,

      The first time I saw you do this I smiled. It's nice to see someone trying to objectively measure *form*. Thanks for not just this but all your contributions.

      After that, I feel goals scored, goals conceded & clean sheets may be a bit misleading when truly trying to dig down & reveal a club's form.

      Perhaps metrics like: shots in the box, shots in the box conceded, possession & / or touches in the final third would really help you discover who's playing well fantasy wise.

      The reason I bring this up is goals scored & goals conceded are very misleading stats in the short term. Here's a couple of extreme examples from last year to illustrate what I mean re: goals & goals conceded being very misleading in the short term.

      West Ham 0 - Chelsea 0
      http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/football/25838369

      Everton 1 - Chelsea 0
      http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/football/23999387

      On the surface we'd think Chelsea had played *poorly* in these games however, when we dig deeper we'd see they out shot their opponents by at least a 2:1 margin & had the ball over 60%+ of the time...

      As a result, we may think Chelsea not playing their best but, in reality they're dominating their opponents.

      Well, this quick note is quickly turning into an essay so I'll leave you now with a *good on you mate* & a *keep up the hard work*!

      1. The Sarjeant
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        Cheers for this. And I fully agree. I did want to include these sorts of stats, the only thing stopping me would be the fact that I'd be publishing members data to all the community.

    • Kalix
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Awesome work!

    • DelboyFPL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      great stuff! but just 1 thing.... Man City have 1 clean sheet (NEW) (A) 😛

      1. The Sarjeant
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        This article only looks at the last four game weeks.

    • Lanley Staurel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      I really like this sort of article. Every week please Bilko 😉

    • roscola
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Excellent, love it

    • KISSES
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      I like this article, hope it carries on, cheers

    • Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Hmmm. Useful article - thanks!

    • Miami Monkey
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      But Burnley scored against Chelsea??

      1. The Sarjeant
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        It's assesing the past four gameweeks. That match was out of that time period.

    • Just A Hat
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      nice work

    • racerx
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Awesome article! well done

    • Hy liverpool
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Great stuff

    • Rogue Trooper
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Great article! Very useful. Please keep it up.

    • HVT
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Good work - Sarj thanks for a very comprehensive analysis,
      I hope you get to take on Lawro!!!

    • The Mandalorian
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Great job Sarj

    • Guy Demel's SH
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Good and interesting article, thanks.

      I might question using cup games in your form though, reason being that the playing eleven are often very different and the opponents varied, so I'm not sure it gives a true indicator of form for the team that would play in the PL. Can see the arguments on each side of this though.

      1. The Sarjeant
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        Well yeah, I see what your saying. But I still think it's important to form, as United losing 4-0 to MK Dons will have some sort of impact.

        Also, I only use it for the W/D/L, which I don't go into too much detail about.

    • Zep
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      This is a great article, Sarj...

      Good work Bru...

      1. Differential Equation 42
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        Ulloa for Naismith seems good on FT?

    • Saint Steve-O (@EliteFPL)
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Fantasic read... Thank you, will look forward to reading this weekly