Assessing the Differentials – Forwards

We roll out the third in a three-part series focusing on differential options this afternoon. Having analysed the Defenders and Midfielders who may benefit from kind upcoming schedules over the next 13 Gameweeks, we turn our attentions to the men up front.

Seven Gameweeks into the new season and Diego Costa now sits in over two-thirds of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) teams after scoring nine times for league leaders Chelsea. Whilst the Blues summer signing is far and away the most popular option for our three-man frontlines, it’s noticeable that only eight strikers are owned by 10% or more Fantasy managers to date. With that in mind, then, there’s plenty of scope for some overlooked alternative to make their mark.

Daniel Sturridge
The striker’s absence has seen Liverpool win just one of their last four matches but he’s returned to full training ahead of this weekend’s trip to QPR. Sitting in just 9% of FPL teams, Sturridge is proven Fantasy class –as evidenced by his 22 goals and eight assists in just 29 appearances last year. With Brendan Rodgers’ side set to face just three of last year’s top eight (CHE, mun, ARS) over the next 13 Gameweeks, Sturridge’s likely comeback offers us an alternative big hitter for our front three – available for 11.2, his displays look vital to the Reds’ attempts to get their title bid back on track.

Radamel Falcao
With (the currently suspended) Wayne Rooney earmarked for the role in “the hole” by Louis van Gaal and Robin van Persie failing to justify his lofty 12.4 price tag, the Colombian may prove to be the best option amongst United’s forwards. Having scored 103 goals in 134 league matches for Porto, Atletico Madrid and Monaco, Falcao’s record speaks for itself – granted, he’s notched just once for United but with a couple of assists also earned, the points have still been ticking over. With Angel di Maria currently the most popular player amongst the Red Devils’ assets so far, Falcao’s 10.9 price tag has deterred most, with just 9% ownership to date. Granted, United have the toughest schedule for attacking points over the next 13 Gameweeks according to our fixture ticker but as he’s shown time and again, “El Tigre” has the class to prevail regardless.

Romelu Lukaku
There’s no doubt he can, at times, prove a frustrating pick but the Everton frontman has the schedule to prosper. After a slow start to the campaign, Lukaku has struck twice in the last four Gameweeks and is braced for a run of matches which sees the Toffees face just three of last season’s top eight (tot, mci, sot) in the upcoming 13 Gameweeks. Certainly, at 9.0 he’s far pricier than Steven Naismith (5.2) as a route into the Merseysiders’ attack but with Ross Barkley poised to return imminently, the popular Scot may well find his pitch time curtailed or potentially shifted to the right. Lukaku, on the other hand, looks a certain starter regardless and, having racked up 32 goals and 16 assists in the last two seasons, there’s no questioning the 9%-owned Belgian’s ability.

Christian Benteke
After months on the sidelines, the Villa forward finally returned to action last time around, with a 30-minute appearance off the bench against City. Initially priced at 8.0, Benteke has slipped to 7.9 in the FPL game and could, potentially, prove to be a real bargain if Paul Lambert’s side can get their season back on track. After squaring up to Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and City in back-to-back matches, the midlands outfit now face just three of last year’s top eight in the next 13 Gameweeks, leading us all the way up to the winter wildcard – if Benteke can rediscover the form that ripped apart Premier League backlines on his way to 19 goals and four assists in 2012/13, the bandwagon won’t be long in forthcoming.

Wilfried Bony
Thirteen goals in the final 19 Gameweeks of 2013/14 earned the Swansea striker an 8.5 price tag this time around. Whilst Gylfi Sigurdsson’s return to the Liberty has elevated the playmaker to the top of the midfield standings, Bony has been slow to rediscover his form but, after opening his account for the campaign against Newcastle last week, there’s hope that he’s finally settling back into the goal scoring groove. Now down to 8.3 and owned by only 4% of FPL managers, Bony has a mixed upcoming schedule but he’s more than capable of delivering the points regardless of fixture – eight of last term’s 17 strikes were against the top seven.

Papiss Cisse
Another player who has the history to suggest we shouldn’t overlook his points potential. After recovering from a knee injury, Cisse has struck four times in three appearances over a total of 151 minutes –scoring all of Newcastle’s goals from Gameweek 4 onwards. A total of 25 points over that trio of matches harks back to the glory days of 2011/12, where, after arriving at St James’ Park in the winter transfer window, he proceeded to fire 13 goals in just 14 matches. Ten strikes in the subsequent two seasons has ensured Cisse’s price sits at a lowly 5.9 but with his confidence sky-high, he’s already looking like making a mockery of that valuation – with five strong home fixtures (LEI, QPR, SUN, EVE, BUR) and some decent away matches (wba, whm, bur) prior to the winter wildcard, he may yet keep Alan Pardew in a job.

Saido Berahino
The West Brom youngster sits just one point off second spot in the FPL forward standings yet, in spite of a very favourable 5.6 price tag, is owned by a mere 6% of managers. Berahino has already racked up five goals – equaling his tally for 2013/14 – and has also been handed spot-kick duties by Baggies boss Alan Irvine. His versatility could go against him – Irvine has shifted the youngster to the wing on occasion – but with new signing Brown Ideye still struggling for form and fitness, Berahino still looks in the driving seat for the lone striker role. A total of 16 attempts inside the box is fifth amongst forwards this season, whilst 10 shots on target has been bettered only by Costa and Sergio Aguero – up next are four kind home matches (CPL, NEW, WHM, AVL) and trips to Leicester, Hull and QPR in the next 10 Gameweeks.

Diafra Sakho
The West Ham forward has now scored in each of his last five appearances in all competitions and looks a canny piece of business by Big Sam. Snapped up from French outfit Metz, Sakho has so far been the main beneficiary of the Hammers’ more expansive style of play, with strike partner Enner Valencia yet to mirror his impact. Priced at a mere 5.6, the Senegal striker’s exploits have mainly been ignored by FPL managers – less than 2% have him on board ahead of a weekend trip to Burnley. Set to face only four of last year’s top eight (MCI, eve, che, ARS) from now until the winter wildcard kicks in, he could prove exceptional value if he can maintain his stunning start to life in the top-flight. With Stewart Downing similarly priced in midfield, though, Sakho is likely to remain off most radars, strengthening his differential prospects going forward.

Emmanuel Adebayor
To an extent, the Tottenham frontman appears here by default. Whilst his displays so far have produced points in only two of his seven starts, Adebayor is clearly Mauricio Pochettino’s favoured option for the lone striker role and subsequently cannot be ignored in light of his upcoming schedule. Available for 8.4, with an ownership under 5% in FPL, he has five strong home clashes (NEW, STO, EVE, CPL, BUR) in addition to trips to Villa, Hull, Swansea and Leicester in the lead up to Gameweek 21. Certainly, the form of Nacer Chadli and, to a lesser extent, Christian Eriksen, means the Togo international has been poor value thus far but with spot-kick duties also in his locker, Adebayor could yet have a part to play if he can improve his shot conversion – last season’s 25% has slipped to a lowly 7.1% to date and resulted in a single goal.

Jamie Vardy
A goal and five assists in just three starts highlights the Leicester forward’s capabilities. Vardy rose to prominence with a stunning 21-point haul against United but with 23% of FPL managers opting for team-mate Leonardo Ulloa, the 5.0-priced frontman sits in only 2% of sides thus far. Crucially, though, Nigel Pearson’s move to 4-4-2 against Burnley saw Vardy shifted to a central role alongside the Argentine, with the Foxes boss clearly looking to utilise his pace through the centre – with Newcastle, Swansea, West Brom, Sunderland and QPR in the next six, he could be worth a short-term punt before the schedule turns a little tougher.