Community Submissions

The Form Gauge – Gameweek 9

The Form Gauge consists of two lists which contain data taken from the last four Gameweeks to give us some sort of a team form guide. The attack list is sorted by how many games the club has failed to score in (FS) and then by goals scored (GS). Meanwhile, the defence list is sorted by clean sheets (CS) and then by goals conceded (GC). In both cases, the higher up the table the team is, the better the form it is in.

ATTACK

1. Manchester City (FS 0, GS 11)
2. Manchester United & West Ham (FS 0, GS 9)
3. Hull, West Brom & Chelsea (FS 0, GS 8)
4. Everton & Liverpool (FS 0, GS 7)
5. Stoke (FS 0, GS 6)
6. Southampton (FS 1, GS 11)
7. Arsenal & Crystal Palace (FS 1, GS 6)
8. QPR & Newcastle (FS 1, GS 5)
9. Tottenham (FS 1, GS 3)
10. Leicester (FS 2, GS 7)
11. Burnley & Swansea (FS 2, GS 3)
12. Sunderland (FS 3, GS 3)
13. Aston Villa (FS 4, GS 0)

DEFENCE

1. Southampton & Chelsea (CS 2, GC 2)
2. West Brom (CS 2, GC 4)
3. Sunderland (CS 2, GC 9)
4. Manchester City & West Ham (CS 1, GC 4)
5. Arsenal, Newcastle & Swansea (CS 1, GC 5)
6. Everton, Crystal Palace, Stoke & Tottenham (CS 1, GC 6)
7. Hull (CS 1, GC 8)
8. Burnley (CS 1, GC 9)
9. Liverpool (CS 0, GC 7)
10. Leicester (CS 0, GC 8)
11. Manchester United & QPR (CS 0, GC 9)
12. Aston Villa (CS 0, GC 11)

10 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Great stuff...Wonder if Chelsea can maintain that defensive form against ManU?

  2. Jay_
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Nice work , Berahino looking ever more juicy

      1. KISSES
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 4 months ago

        E6 - Berahino or Sakho?

    • bluenredhattrickmaster97
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Should I go Drogba or Benteke for WK 9? Thanks!

    • brianutd-why always we? 20
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Floodgates opening

    • The Fantastic Mr Fox
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 4 months ago

      I had used last week's numbers and gone one step further in analysing a team's goal-scoring potential against its opposition's defense. Based on The Sarjeant's grading system, i assigned them a rank of 1-20 in attack and defense. Then i calculated Goal Scoring Potential (GSP), as

      GSP = Defensive rank of opponent/attacking rank of team

      for eg,
      MCI - Attack rank 3, defense rank 9
      TOT - Att 13, Def 7

      To make the ranking more comparable 1 - 20 was considered as 101 - 120. This was done to avoid situations where ATT rank 1 team would have an abnormally high GSP bcos you're dividing opponent's defensive rank by 1. While using 101-120 isn't mathematically accurate (since rank 2 team might have scored a lot more goals than rank 3), it gives a crude estimate.

      So GSP of City was, 107/103 = 1.038
      TOT = 109/113 = 0.96

      So with these numbers, i created a new GSP ranklist, and predicted game outcomes

      MCI* vs TOT
      MUN* vs WBA
      ARS vs HUL* (adjacent ranks, but Hull higher)
      BUR vs whu*
      CRY vs CHE*
      EVE* vs AVL
      NEW vs LEI*
      SOU* vs SUN
      QPR vs LIV*
      STO* vs SWA (against popular expectation)

      * - team with higher GSP

      The final results showed,
      Correct prediction - 7 games
      Draw - 2 games (Ars & Hul GSP were almost equal so a draw was a possibility)
      Incorrect - 1 (New held out against a more favoured Lei attack)

      Its a pretty decent success percentage, especially the Sto-Swan and Ars-Hull games. These numbers work best when comparing a team with its opponent, rather than with any other team. While i understand this method is not very scientific, it may be of interest to those who think there is some sense behind it. I did it to break the boredom of Internationals week, so forgive me 😀

      Predictions for the upcoming GW 9

      WHU vs MCI* or Draw
      LIV vs HUL*
      SOU* vs STO
      SUN vs ARS* or Draw
      WBA* vs CRY
      SWA* vs LEI
      BUR vs EVE*
      TOT vs NEW* or Draw
      MUN vs CHE*
      QPR* vs AVL

      1. FAITHNOMORENO
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 4 months ago

        so,according to your statistics hull will win at liverpool? have you calculated injuries?

        1. The Fantastic Mr Fox
          • 9 Years
          9 years, 4 months ago

          I haven't included such things bcos u can't really gauge the impact of injuries. this is purely based on Form

      2. The Albatross
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 4 months ago

        just come across this, wonderful stuff motr, would leave to see it as a regular feature

        1. The Fantastic Mr Fox
          • 9 Years
          9 years, 4 months ago

          Thanks. I will. If it continues to give decent predictions i will be using it for my decisions.

          Form over Fixture