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Clean Sheets – Reality Versus Dreams

10 November 2014 60 comments
Heels_Over_Head Heels_Over_Head
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With 11 games played so far and with the heavy schedule of December fixtures looming, it is time for the big clubs to start getting serious about their defences. At the same time, it is a good time to look at the reality versus dreams surrounding clean sheets and find out just how many more shut outs we can expect from Premier League sides.

Premier League Clean Sheets – A Recent History

A good case in point is Southampton. Their defenders are very popular now and deservedly so with seven clean sheets from 11. But what are their odds of replicating this dream start over the season? A look at recent history tells us that they will be extremely lucky to double their clean sheet tally and owners of Southampton defenders are set to have their dreams crushed. Here are the clubs that have kept 14 or more clean sheets in a season since 2010.

2010/2011 (5 teams)

  • 18 – Manchester City
  • 15 – Chelsea, Manchester United
  • 14 – Fulham, Liverpool

2011/2012 (5 teams)

  • 20 – Manchester United
  • 17 – Manchester City
  • 15 – Newcastle
  • 14 – Swansea, Tottenham

2012/2013 (4 teams)

  • 18 – Manchester City
  • 16 – Liverpool
  • 14 – Arsenal, Chelsea

2013/2014 (7 teams)

  • 18 – Chelsea
  • 17 – Arsenal
  • 16 – Manchester City
  • 15 – Everton, Southampton
  • 14 – Tottenham, West Ham

Conclusions

It is time for a reality check as it is clear that so-called big teams, that are regularly in the top four of the Premier League are highly likely to be this season’s clean sheet kings. Chelsea have chalked up at least 14 clean sheets in three of the last four seasons. Meanwhile, Manchester City have had 14 or more clean sheets all of the last four seasons and Arsenal have had 14 or more clean sheets for the last two. When you consider all three of these clubs have just three clean sheets so far this season, there is a strong statistical likelihood that each will gain at least another 11 clean sheets in the remaining 27 games.

The historical data also shows that those dreamers who expect Southampton to mirror their early season form are in need of a wake-up call. Statistically it is unlikely that Southampton will be able to muster any more than seven more clean sheets this season.

As Southampton’s fixtures turn in the next two weeks, it is time to consider moving toward defenders from the three big clubs that have shown they can consistently produce clean sheets. The slow starts to accumulating clean sheets by Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City only makes them more statistically likely to get clean sheets going forward if we can assume they will continue to bring home the clean sheet totals they have in previous years.

Heels_Over_Head Knocks & Niggles Draft League Commissioner since 2013/14 season. This league is on Fantrax.com and unrelated to FPL. 2017/18 season membership is full up. If you are interested in joining for the 2018/19 season, read more here: http://tinyurl.com/ybefwvbd

60 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    11 years, 28 days ago

    You've convinced me. Bertrand out straight after the villa match. Azpi is looking more and more appealing too.

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    1. MRCONTE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 28 days ago

      These records will convince you even more. For sure!!

      I've gathered data for the past 3 seasons. And it looks like we just need to sit back & wait for the big teams to replicate their full season past cleansheet records.

      As we can see, most of so-called big teams didn't get a big number of cleansheet records on their first 11 matches. They recorded just around 3 or 4 cleansheets at GW11.

      TEAM : Cleansheet GW11/GW38

      Season 2011-2012
      Liv : 4/12
      Che : 2/10
      Mci : 4/17
      Ars : 4/13
      Eve : 1/12
      Tot : 3/14
      Sou : -/-
      Whm : -/-
      Mun : 5/20

      Season 2012-2013
      Liv : 2/16
      Che : 4/14
      Mci : 3/18
      Ars : 4/14
      Eve : 2/11
      Tot : 1/9
      Sou : 0/7
      Whm : 5/11
      Mun : 2/13

      Season 2013-2014
      Liv : 4/10
      Che : 3/18
      Mci : 4/16
      Ars : 3/17
      Eve : 6/15
      Tot : 7/14
      Sou : 6/15
      Whm : 6/14
      Mun : 3/14

      Season 2014-2015
      Liv : 2/??
      Che : 3/??
      Mci : 3/??
      Ars : 3/??
      Eve : 3/??
      Tot : 3/??
      Sou : 7/??
      Whm : 2/??
      Mun : 3/??

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      1. Heels_Over_Head
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 28 days ago

        This is BRILLIANT !

        Out of curiosity, how did you gather the data?

        Thanks for sharing 😀

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        1. MRCONTE
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          11 years, 28 days ago

          just check http://www.statto.com.

          For example, the 2012-2013 full season defence records : http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/2012-2013/defence/full

          Then I manually counted the GW11 cleansheet records from : http://www.statto.com/football/teams/chelsea/2012-2013/results

          CHEERS!!!

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      2. Solenya
        • 14 Years
        11 years, 27 days ago

        Nice one. Have a +1

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      3. Mahesh_Kumar
        • 11 Years
        11 years, 27 days ago

        +1

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      4. Woy of the Wovers
        • 15 Years
        11 years, 27 days ago

        So all these teams more than double their GW11 tally yet Southampton will be really lucky to do that? Who's dreaming?

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        1. MRCONTE
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          11 years, 27 days ago

          The point is that teams with strong defensive records like chelsea & mancity (statistically) will gain their numbers of cleansheet at the end of the season, although (surprisingly) at GW11 they usually only get 3 or 4 cleansheets.

          I've been a fan of southampton's defenders since last season, and hope they can give us more and more cleansheet figures this season, at least 10 additional cleansheets.

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          1. Hymie
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            11 years, 26 days ago

            Here's a couple of "big numbers" based on your data above that supports the view that Southampton will easily reach 14 cleansheets:

            - 4 out of 4: Teams with 6 or cleansheets by GW11 go on to get at least 14 cleansheets by GW38.

            - 100%: the likelihood that a team with 7 clean sheets at GW11 will end up with at least 14 by GW38. (see TOT 2013/14)

            - at this stage last season, SOU had 6 cleansheets and ended up with 15 by GW38.

            Yes, the data suggests that defences tighten up in the back half, though the comparatives here need to be adjusted for the 245% increase in games by GW38 too (divide the 27 games remaining after GW11 by 11 if that confuses you). Factoring this in, you see the stats aren't all that impressive.

            Aggregating the data from the 3 completed seasons yields you the following actual versus trend outcomes for projecting the "to-GW11 performance" over the rest of the seasons. Eg. Liv aggregates are 10 by GW11, so trend suggests at least 34 by GW38. Actual is 38, so it tightened up by only 4 cleansheets over 81 games (5% improvement)

            All of them then:

            LIV 10 >> 34 - 38 (+ 5%)
            CHE 9 >> 31 - 42 (+11%)
            MCI 11 >> 38 - 51 (+16%)
            ARS 11 >> 38 - 44 (+ 7%)
            EVE 9 >> 31 - 38 (+ 9%)
            TOT 11 >> 38 - 37 (- 1%)
            SOU 6 >> 20 - 22 (+ 3.5%) -- 2 seasons only
            WHM 11 >> 38 - 25 (-25%) -- 2 seasons only
            MUN 10 >> 34 - 47 (+16%)

            Some interesting points. MCI (16%) and CHE (11%) tighten up as expected. MUN (16%) holds its own, but stats heavily swayed by 20 cleanies under Fergie.

            TOT (-1% don't improve, and worse, WHU (-25%) open the floodgates.

            But as for SOU, if they were to push out from here at their avg (3.5%), we should see 25 clean sheets for the season. Go figure. 🙂

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            1. Dino
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 16 Years
              11 years, 26 days ago

              You lost me, how do you figure pool to tighten up only 4 cs over 81 games? I don't get where you get 81 games sorry

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              1. Hymie
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 12 Years
                11 years, 26 days ago

                3 seasons worth of game from GW12 to Gw38 (inclusive): 3 x 27 = 81.

                In aggregate over the 3 seasons, Pool got 10 clean sheets over the 33 games in the first bracket (GW1-GW11), so projecting this cleansheet rate (let's call it their "CSR") for the 2nd bracket, they should have managed at least 34 cleansheets.

                However, they tightened up (but not by much) and managed 38 (i.e. only 4 more CS over those 81 games than their early season CSR suggests)

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                1. Dino
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 16 Years
                  11 years, 25 days ago

                  Ah I get you now but would you consider pool a top defence for those years? I wouldn't. The only consistent big hitter defences over those years would have been United, city, arsenal and to a certain extent Chelsea (although they had the aberration where they finished 6th).

                  I'm not sure your projection figures hold up for the lesser teams due to their lack of consistency and their heavier dependence on fabout able fixtures over shorter terms which can help them to unreasonably high cs ratios.

                  Of the current teams only Chelsea, City and Arsenal can be expected big hitter defencos which will perform as they have historically and get 11+ cs between now and the end of the season.

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  2. Doolittle
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 28 days ago

    Good article, Bertrand -> Azpilicueta in a couple of weeks looking likely for me.

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  3. The Gambler.
    • 16 Years
    11 years, 28 days ago

    Records are there to be broken though and Saints firesale hasnt harmed them yet.

    If no pressing transfers then fair enough!

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  4. Tomas Brolin ate all Depays
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 28 days ago

    cheap routes in top defenses?

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    1. Heels_Over_Head
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 28 days ago

      Chelsea
      Azpi now
      Luis if one of the starting four is injured
      (* caveat, I'm getting Terry first if I can afford it; and I do plan to be doubled up on Chelsea defense by month's end or sooner)

      Arsenal
      Chambers now
      Debuchy next month

      ManCity
      tougher because Pellegrini rotates more... I'm inclined to just get Hart during the January WC, though would also consider Kompany or Mangala (who aren't that cheap)

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  5. BigManBakar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 28 days ago

    Great article, I'm keeping Ivanovic despite his poor returns. This article just convinced me even more 🙂

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  6. poopdollar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 28 days ago

    Except that like Soton's underlying metric stats have them rated as one of the best defensive teams in the league. Market hasn't adjusted and I think Soton are pretty much a lock for top 4. They are very sound defensively and will have a punchers chance in every game vs the other top teams. They have a massive death run in the next two months playing CHE, ARSx2, MUNx2, EVE, MCI. If they can get even half of possible points in that run they will be in phenomenal shape since all the other top teams minus chelsea can't get their shit together.

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    1. Heels_Over_Head
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 28 days ago

      Market hasn't adjusted?

      Clyne is up .7, Betrand is up .6, Forster is up .3; and those are two biggest rises by defenders and the biggest rise by a goal keeper in the game.

      I don't know understand why people think that top teams that struggle early in the season are never going to pull together. Teams at the top year in and year out know how to manage a bad patch and come together. They've done it before, they'll do it again.

      Southampton have had a tremendous run, they're coming off four clean sheets in a row now (during which I owned double Clyne & Bertand and started both every week), but trend lines don't continue forever.

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  7. Rats Ass
    • 15 Years
    11 years, 28 days ago

    Fairly small data set. You could argue that the recent trend is towards a broadening of the teams who are able to keep more clean sheets. That said, I'm keeping Ivan!

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    1. Heels_Over_Head
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 28 days ago

      How many years did you want me to go back?

      I didn't make a trend out of one season (like last year's anomaly of 7 teams have so many clean sheets).

      Man City are defensively stout every year, regardless of manager.

      Chelsea are usually defensively stout, and particularly when managed by Mourinho.

      Arsenal's clean sheets always surprise me, but I'll give Arsene the benefit of the doubt as he has a managerial knack unlike any other. (I mean, how hard is it to target and finish fourth consistently... this is no easy thing, you have to constantly adjust to how well or poorly other teams are doing... it is elegant and amazing to watch every season that he pulls it off yet again 😉

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  8. John t penguin
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 28 days ago

    Nice read
    Do you have data for amount of CS these teams had at this point in previous seasons to see how it compares to this year.

    Think it is common practice for bigger teams to tighten up as season goes on but I am sure at least one of big teams usually starts well in terms of CS , which hasn't really happened is year.
    Oh and thanks for knocking me off top of articles column after ten minutes 🙂

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    1. John t penguin
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 28 days ago

      Asking a question of someone who is still asleep
      Bit stupid

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    2. Heels_Over_Head
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 28 days ago

      I would never intentionally knock you off the top after 10 days, let alone 10 minutes.

      Finding partial season data is difficult (i.e. I haven't found it) so I can only go by my fuzzy memory. For example, last season I think Tottenham and Southampton were the defenses to own early and the number of clean sheets they generated faded a bit, but obviously they still finished with a bunch.

      I do also remember last season Man City starting off terribly to the point Hart was benched for Panti, then they locked down in the second half of the season.

      Also, Chelsea got better in the 2nd half of last season though many attributed that to Matic's arrival in January alongside Azpi's emergence.

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    3. Heels_Over_Head
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 28 days ago

      see MrMourinho comment above in reply to Jonty

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  9. Kalix
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 28 days ago

    This Article seems a bit confused...

    A quote:
    "Recent history tells us that [Southampton] will be extremely lucky to double their clean sheet tally" [up to a total of 14 clean sheets].

    Followed by "Recent History":
    Southampton had 15 clean sheets in 2013/2014.

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    1. Kalix
      • 14 Years
      11 years, 28 days ago

      There is merit in ditching for what looks like woeful run of fixtures...but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Southampton with the most clean sheets come end of the season.

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    2. Kalix
      • 14 Years
      11 years, 28 days ago

      If anything, they'll be extremely *unlucky* not to double their tally...with 27 games remaining!

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      1. Heels_Over_Head
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 28 days ago

        We shall see. You think they're going to tap 20 like Man United?

        That would be 13 of the next 27.

        By the same token, do you think Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal will have less than 16 at the end of the season?

        Because that's also 13 out of the next 27.

        Which is more likely? Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal continue to be consistent year over year, or Southampton reach record heights?

        Fantasy is about guessing likelihoods, that's all I'm saying.

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        1. Kalix
          • 14 Years
          11 years, 28 days ago

          This is where the article is a bit confused:

          A) Southampton will carry on as they are and finished with 24 CS.
          B) Southampton will double their current total, and finish with 14 CS.

          You start out trying to disprove A, and give very good evidence for that job.
          But then go on to *assume* B (why, I'm not sure..?)

          They got 15 last season, reaching 14 seems very doable after such a great start.

          I think A is almost certainly false, but B is quite probable.

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          1. Heels_Over_Head
            • 12 Years
            11 years, 28 days ago

            Apologies for being confusing. The original title was "Inverted Clean Sheet Theory" and some things were cut to make the article punchy (by the excellent editing staff at FFS).

            My point is that yes, Southampton will probably get between 12 and 16 clean sheets this season, sure, but if you expect, for example, Southampton and Chelsea to both finish with 16 clean sheets
            THEN
            Chelsea have more clean sheets in their future
            and Southampton have less.

            ----

            I'm just saying that X number of clean sheets for the best defenses is what normally happens, the same that most teams get 3 PKs or less each season but we only remember the few teams (Liverpool, ManCity & Chelsea) that got 5 or more last season.

            ---

            Alas, I'm quite tired at the end of my day here and unsure I've made sense yet... hope I did, but if I'm still off in the woods, let me know.

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  10. ​
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 28 days ago

    "The slow starts to accumulating clean sheets by Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City only makes them more statistically likely to get clean sheets going forward if we can assume they will continue to bring home the clean sheet totals they have in previous years."

    This is fast and loose logic that can't be held up by the use of the word "Statistically" over and over in this article.

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    1. Kalix
      • 14 Years
      11 years, 28 days ago

      Agreed. An assumption like that is akin to Gamblers Fallacy.

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    2. Heels_Over_Head
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 28 days ago

      "There are three kind of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics." - Mark Twain

      Sorry you don't like my simplistic wordsmithing.

      Hart was benched for being inept this time last year and ManCity shut teams down in the second half and won the league.

      Chelsea were stronger in the second half last year, though this has been attributed to Matic coming in January.

      If you think Southampton and West Ham are going to be in the Champions League spots at season's end, fine then. If you recognize that ultimately those positions will wind up in the hands of bigger clubs, how do you expect it to happen?

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    3. robdag
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 28 days ago

      Agreed. This has gamblers fallacy written all over it.

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  11. tm245
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 28 days ago

    Interesting stuff. This article is one of my all time favorites on the subject.

    http://premierleaguefantasy.blogspot.com/2012/08/do-defences-really-strengthen-as-season.html

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    1. Heels_Over_Head
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 28 days ago

      I'd love to read it but that site (or at least that article) is blocked here in the United Arab Emirates for some reason.

      🙁

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      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 14 Years
        11 years, 27 days ago

        Over the past two seasons we can see that the strongest defensive teams have started out well without being spectacular (~35% of clean sheets kept) but as the season progresses they have gotten stronger and stronger, peaking around the mid season point. This ties into the narrative of good teams coming into their own, and perhaps suggests that it’s around that period we should be aiming shift our defensive funds towards the stronger teams.

        Now, the problem of course is that these two findings appear to give somewhat contradictory advice. On one hand, we are saying that clean sheets decrease during the middle of the season, but on the other we’re saying the good teams keep more clean sheets, so what should we do? Well, it seems like an optimal strategy may be to open the season with 5 defenders from teams with upside, whose fixtures gel and who all come at an easily replaceable price (getting stuck with too many dud 4.5m defenders can be a major problem). As the cream rises during the season, we could consider shifting funds from having 5 good players to maybe just 3 very good ones (hopefully one will emerge at a bargain price) and then ride those studs to virtually the end of the season (which becomes a crap shoot depending on who has trophies to play for, and which ones).

        For the immediate future then, the lesson is that big name defenders aren’t perhaps essential to open the season and you might be able to free up a couple of million here and there to use elsewhere if you so desire. If you decide to follow that strategy then flexibility will be key as you will almost certainly want to divert funds towards the better teams during the middle portion of the season.

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        1. Ginkapo FPL
          • 14 Years
          11 years, 27 days ago

          I was about to post the same link. Simply put, invest in the big teams after christmas for the logic you have stated, but until then stay dirt cheap as there is no value in the big teams yet.

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  12. 7shadesofsmoke
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 28 days ago

    I think Saints DF -> Azpic will be a very popular move in the next few weeks.

    I also like the look of Swansea given how strong their fixtures are from GW13.

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    1. Heels_Over_Head
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 28 days ago

      Yes, Swansea has strong fixtures from 29 November to 10 January. Been telling people not to drop Siggy for this reason. Defense should do well as well, though they do have 5 clean sheets already 😉

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  13. John t penguin
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 28 days ago

    Bit surprised stoke don't feature in any of past years top defences.
    Is there past CS ability a myth

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    1. Heels_Over_Head
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 28 days ago

      Stoke CS by year
      10/11 - 9
      11/12 - 9
      12/13 - 12
      13/14 - 9

      been using this site
      http://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/premier-league/2010-11/best-defence.html

      have to independently choose "year" and "defence stats" in separate drop-down windows, then hit go

      it sorts by points allowed per game which isn't always an accurate representation of most/least clean sheets so teams are *not* ranked by clean sheet on these tables

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    2. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 28 days ago

      Most of Stoke's clean sheets probably occurred in home matches - not so good in aways.

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  14. Heels_Over_Head
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 28 days ago

    Interesting to note that last season
    http://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/premier-league/2013-14/best-defence.html

    Liverpool gave up 1.32 goals per game yet only had 10 clean sheets
    while
    Tottenham and West Ham gave up 1.34 goals per game yet both had 14 clean sheets

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  15. Heels_Over_Head
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 28 days ago

    For those that like to argue for cheap defense, relegated Norwich had 12 clean sheets last season (same as Crystal Pulis)
    http://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/premier-league/2013-14/best-defence.html

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  16. HP.
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 28 days ago

    Fabregas will play next match, if Mourinho knew he was injured and was planning to rest him against WBA would he not have told him to get a deliberate yellow card?

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  17. MMN
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 28 days ago

    When the midweek fixtures start rolling in, in the festive period, do we think Costa will play 3 times in a week?

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  18. Sciolist
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 28 days ago

    "makes them more statistically likely to get clean sheets going forward if we can assume they will continue to bring home the clean sheet totals they have in previous years"

    You can't assume that from a statistical point of view.

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  19. tm245
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 28 days ago

    @HoH -- Here are a few excerpts from that article I linked above. He was a writer on here for awhile before he went off on his own. His blog has been some really interesting reading over the years.

    Chris Glover, Premier League Fantasy Blogspot, Aug 2012
    "Not much changes with the increased sample, and while I'm not willing to suggest this is by any means conclusive (I would expand the sample for more years if I had more time), I think the data is at least persuasive in a negative sense: we shouldn't be expecting a glut of clean sheets in the middle of the season as team's 'tighten up. Before taking conclusions too far though, what if we look at which teams are keeping clean sheets and when.

    Over the past two seasons we can see that the strongest defensive teams have started out well without being spectacular (~35% of clean sheets kept) but as the season progresses they have gotten stronger and stronger, peaking around the mid season point. This ties into the narrative of good teams coming into their own, and perhaps suggests that it’s around that period we should be aiming shift our defensive funds towards the stronger teams.

    Now, the problem of course is that these two findings appear to give somewhat contradictory advice. On one hand, we are saying that clean sheets decrease during the middle of the season, but on the other we’re saying the good teams keep more clean sheets, so what should we do? Well, it seems like an optimal strategy may be to open the season with 5 defenders from teams with upside, whose fixtures gel and who all come at an easily replaceable price (getting stuck with too many dud 4.5m defenders can be a major problem). As the cream rises during the season, we could consider shifting funds from having 5 good players to maybe just 3 very good ones (hopefully one will emerge at a bargain price) and then ride those studs to virtually the end of the season (which becomes a crap shoot depending on who has trophies to play for, and which ones).

    For the immediate future then, the lesson is that big name defenders aren’t perhaps essential to open the season and you might be able to free up a couple of million here and there to use elsewhere if you so desire. If you decide to follow that strategy then flexibility will be key as you will almost certainly want to divert funds towards the better teams during the middle portion of the season."

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    1. Heels_Over_Head
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 28 days ago

      Thanks for this.

      Sound words. Much obliged for sharing.

      Also check out the data in MrMourinho;s comment above in reply to Jonty (1st comment).

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  20. Tibbles
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 28 days ago

    Haven't done any homework on this, but I assumed the 'big' teams reason for mid and late season CS success was alot down to squad depth.
    Teams pick up injuries more as season progresses, the Christmas fixture chaos etc all adds to pressure on defences to perform. The added quality of the squad comes into play, with replacements and rotation from the stronger sides giving them advantage over smaller sides. Obviously different permutations are involved as well, but just think there is more to the top sides 'tightening up'.

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    1. Heels_Over_Head
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 28 days ago

      Good points.

      Squad depth is certainly a factor. But, indeed this is part of the problem with investing in ManCity where rotation among defenders is frequent (why I'll get Hart in the January WC). Chelsea rotate very little so it isn't all about depth, but they have good backups when needed; and Mourinho emphasizes the whole team playing defense.

      Also check out the data in MrMourinho;s comment above in reply to Jonty (1st comment).

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  21. thebikeryogi
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 28 days ago

    I think that Southampton have improved both defensively and offensively to be serious contenders for top 4. Some more wins and they are locked for a 4-5th finish certainly. They have no Europe to wear players out and have a pretty good squad. And if they are top 4 contenders, why cant we assume that they'll get as many CSs as other big teams. Granted that they will not maintain this form all season, but 18-20CS might be a possibility!!

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    1. Gregor
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      11 years, 27 days ago

      Look at their fixtures though, and this is over the busy Christmas schedule and they're still in the League Cup and might have a two legged semi to deal with. A couple of injuries and players out of form and they'll soon slide.

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      1. thebikeryogi
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 27 days ago

        true enough. although, i think i'll keep pelle. who do you think is a better choice...welbeck or pelle?

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  22. FrankieTheGent
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 27 days ago

    This is just wrong.

    Southampton did it last year and are on course again.

    Let's not count the year after they won double promotion and the years in the lower divisions.
    Last year is the best judgement of form.

    Looking at the stats for last year is encouragement to keep southampton defenders.

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  23. Woy of the Wovers
    • 15 Years
    11 years, 27 days ago

    The other flaw here is that teams change with seasons. If you suggested 10 years ago that City were consistently good defensively, you'd be laughed out of town. Maybe back this up with Shots conceded in the box as CS data is rather sparse. It will probably highlight that SOT have improved over the three seasons while Liverpool and United have got worse.

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  24. Marknlard
    • 16 Years
    11 years, 25 days ago

    "Meanwhile, Manchester City have had 14 or more clean sheets all of the last four seasons and Arsenal have had 14 or more clean sheets for the last two. When you consider all three of these clubs have just three clean sheets so far this season, there is a strong statistical likelihood that each will gain at least another 11 clean sheets in the remaining 27 games."

    If only fantasy football was this easy.

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  25. gurka
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 16 days ago

    The overuse of the word statistic is rather humorous

    Southampton got 15 last season so why is it 'statically' sound that they will only get 7 more

    Thanks for the rough guide though

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