QPR’s home hitman hogs the array of impressive numbers on show from the weekend, ably assisted by stellar showings from Tottenham’s Harry Kane and Christian Eriksen. Elsewhere in our regular members’ statistical digest, we examine how Man City’s tactical tweaks influenced two of their key midfielders and analyse how a pair of returning United assets are hinting at major hauls as their minutes begin to build.
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Mertesacker is shocking.
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Standard Arsenal defender
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Not sure that I agree. He's missing Koscielny.
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Not sure how it can be disputed after some of the analysis I've seen on MNF and MOTD. His commitment has been nothing short of appalling recently.
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He captains the team.
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He is no captain. Lacks leadership, takes no responsibility.
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Hmmm. Well, I watch Arse every week, and if I'm honest, I don't agree with that.
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This may be a case of people judging the player's mental state by the way he looks. Like when everybody says that Özil doesn't work on field or is lazy.
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I wholly agree.
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Or the fact that he ducks out of every header
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Every header? Really?
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He has the same injury as what Vermaelen had. Worrying for Kosc that his career might be taking a cruel turn.
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Oh, sh!t. 🙁
That is awful ... -
Let's hope it's not that bad and he can fully recover from it - and that Wenger gives him time to do so.
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+42.
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he's not and you are wrong
cb is built on partnerships. If you consistently change the players around it will never work.
Look at united, look at liverpool who have the same problems. Kosc and Mert were seen as a great partnership last season and this was because they played alongside each other for long periods.
Consistency is key-
Yeah they both got ripped by City Chelsea Liverpool.
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do you base a player on one performance?
I base it on longevity - and the partnership did well last season for a long period of time-
Thats 3 performances. The partnership can cope against teams who sit bit and don't press the front line. Koscienly makes Mertesacker look good. Koscienly is quality, Mertesacker is awful.
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Maybe so, but his individual performances have been awful. No commitment, takes no responsibility whatsoever, ducks out of headers and challenges, doesn't pick his man up, all sorts.
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What a contrast with Skrtel, who heads goals even with a damaged head!
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Think he could do with replacing and an extra to replace the space Verm left in the Summer.
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Worth a Hulk 😆
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City and Chelsea are the only two teams in the league that set themselves up properly . They both have strong defensive mids in front of their back four and Chelsea in particular are organised at the back . Mert and Lovren would not be found out half as much if Arsenal and Liverpool did the same thing .
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Unlike other teams, the Arsenal defense gets very little defensive help from their midfield.
I would suggest that is more the manaters fault rather than Mertesackers.-
Wtf. Managers obviously
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Who is the most nailed on City defender? xx
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As in, least chance of being rested in the coming days.
May as well get rid of Yun -
Hart.
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hart
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Mangala
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Zaha.
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🙂
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He had his rest his attacking displays are essential to city with no strikers.
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Lol just seen my typo!
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I thought it was a cheeky comment to which I was trying to think of a humorous response. Zaba would be nice to have in my team, strongly considering it.
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Did Chambers > Zaba (see my link above) and paid off nicely he may miss one but he's capable of outscoring other city def in 3 v 4 games just need to ditch Moore now, looks like Saylor for me he covers Hutton/Wisdom over the Xmas ( Azpi owner as well!)
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I may wait until later in the week to make the change, if Siggy is out for Boxing Day I'll have to swap him out for Silva or somebody like that. I'll probably get Zaba if Siggy is fit.
Any idea who you're captaining on Friday? I'm thinking Hazard.-
Haz/Costa Sanchez looks an option too.
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Harry Kane reminds me of Peter Crouch... must be the crappy hairstyle and below par looks?
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why you judging another mans looks?
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I find Giroud attractive 🙂
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😀
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😯
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He has beautiful hair
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Homophoebic much??
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🙄
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Thinking the same thing Bemba.
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That's its I'm selling him
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Crouch is decent looking. Hes just tall.
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His girl is even better looking 🙂
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I'd love to disappoint her for 2 minutes
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Ha ha! Love it.
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LOL HAHAHAHAHA
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If he scores against utd and chelsea he'll be looking lovely to me.
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football phrases that annoy me;
"he knows where the goal is".
is there footballers out there who don't know where the goal is?-
I give you altidore
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😆
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balotelli
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Torres
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Balotelli
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daley blind
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Balotelli, torres
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Jozy, Mario
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Saylor
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Harsh 😆
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But funny
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🙂
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i may have phrased that badly 😳
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Richie Dunne knows where the goals are but he gets confused easily
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Torres
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Mikel, sometimes I'm not sure if he knows where anything is, or his profession, or his name.
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Well. This has arguably been my worst GW of the season...
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go on do tell...
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Same! season's lowest points so far 31
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30 for me.
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Why isn't your team linked?
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Embarrassed I believe!
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😆
gotta love song that crazy kid 🙂
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More to come, relax! 😳
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Sanchez (C) didn't work out 🙁
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Happens, forget it and move on 🙂
Poor captaincy does spoil gameweek, wonder how long I will survive without Kun 🙁
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So Newcastle go to Old Trafford next.
Don't be too disheartened about RVP and Rooney's blanks this week....-
Dummett(c)? 😉
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Newcastle will definitely be looking to shut up shop at Old Trafford.
Expect a 1-0 or even a 0-0.-
Did you see their defending for the AJ goal?
It was horrible!
Just think their performance this week was so so poor and this result will affect morale
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Sunderland are a better team though
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You think that villa are a better defensive unit than Newcastle?
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No, I think LVG will sort em out though and 1 will get a couple in a 2-0 win though.
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I'm not, more disheartened about there potential backlash as a toon fan. The points will be a healing salve to my boxing day pain.
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It's where Rooney will play that concerns me.
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Think it will be tight enough
Newcastle could even sneak a win -
Nobody has mentioned Tiote being suspended....
I suppose the Geordie's have a better chance of finishing with 11 then at least.
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So I've been running the stats for the Stoke-Chelsea game with the view to find a value bet. This is what I came to:
GOALS/BTTS
Chelsea - less than convincing record on the road in the PL of late, 3 draws, 1 loss and 2 wins in 6. They have scored 7 in 6, and kept only 1 clean sheet in 6 as well. Average match goals = 2.16
Stoke meanwhile have scored 9 in 6 home games, but only managed 1 clean sheet in the process. Average match goals = 2.75
In the Premier League, Stoke have scored 5 in 5 against Chelsea at home, however have failed to score in 2 of those 5 matches. Meanwhile Chelsea averaged 1.8 goals a game at the Britannia in their last 5 meetings, failing to score in only 1 of the 5.
CONCLUSION: On paper, the home/away averages of this season suggest a game with either 2 or 3 goals, which can be backed at evens. However given the past encounters between the two teams, BTTS at Evens+ looks good value (given this seasons stats it has approx 75% chance of occurring). Stoke haven't kept a clean sheet in 10 PL games and Chelsea have only kept 1 clean sheet in 8 away games.
TIP - BTTS @ 2.00 to 2.10 (if you shop around)
P.S. - 1.61 for a Chelsea win looks horrible value (like you didn't know that already), I'd more happily plump for a 1-2 correct score at 9.00, or Chelsea to win by a 1 goal margin at 3.40.
That was exhausting work, took ages, what do you think?
(And yes I know I post about betting a lot, mainly because betting forums are full primarily home to brainless addicts)-
As long as Begovic makes 15 saves and Azpi scores a goal I'm not too fussed tbh
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2-0 to Chelsea I think.
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What you say makes sense, but as a double Chelsea defence owner, I am going to blindly disagree with you and say that Chelsea will keep a clean sheet 😀
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1 cleanie in 8...would be a serious troll if they did 🙂
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I also like Chelsea to score exactly 2 goals at 3.60
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Hazard 15/8 anytime.
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Rather late and too much Single malt on board ( mindless addict) to really dig the detail but I have to admire your detail.
However given your analysis buying at 2.00-2.1 looks very sound investment. -
interesting to me -like the logic-will take the tip
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1-0 Chelsea, probably an Oscar free kick or something goofy. Costa will get a YC, as it is away and especially because it is Stoke
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Stuck money on Chelsea to win and BTTS at 4.0
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Those bringing in Cazorla..
a) He's on 4 yellows
b) Surely he'll be rotated?
c) 2 tough away games to West Ham and Southampton-
Home to west ham, but yeah, be wary.
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Away to West Ham
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They're playing West Ham at Stamford Bridge.
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We're talking about Cazorla here mate..?
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😯 Ahh lol. My bad mate. Thought I read Costa and saw West ham next up. Time to log off I think.
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It'd be a one week captaincy transfer.
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Rotation could start vs qpr
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D) amazing form
E) proven fpl option
F) plum fixture this week
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Why all the interest in Sunderland defence?
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probably all the points they're accumulating
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Haha good explanation
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Might as well get Pants. The defence, after all is just pants.
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Stoke v Chelsea top 10k ownership and captains
Top 10k ownership of players remaining:
Courtois 1.6% / Cech 0.1%
Begovic 1.4%
Azpi 28.2%
Ivanovic 10.4%
Terry 6.9%
Cahill 4.2%
Wilson 0.2%
Shawcross 0.1%
Hazard 79.5%
Fabregas 22.8%
Oscar 4.5%
Walters 0.4%
Costa 77%
Bojan 0.2%
Captaincy:
Hazard 8.4%
Costa 14.3%
Fabregas 0.3%-
All about the fab points since apparently he's a differential now...
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Oh the pain if Hazard doesn't start.
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Don't you dare say that 😯
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i have Hazard(c) 😯
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Same... And Bony (VC)...
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Don't see any reason why he should be rested. But fate is a funny thing. when all hopes are pinned on a certain player to deliver...good luck to us.
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If he doesn't start then Hazard (C) VS West ham 😀
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This and makes it a better decision as I am torn between him and Sanchez!
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Exactly this.
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That would be ideal, one of him or Costa rested
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I will get my 8 pts from Clyne
Alongwith many hearts broken-
feel like having some criss cut fries right now.
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Haz plez play tonite!
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Same situation, but I doubt Hazard doesn't feature at all sadly
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1-0 stoke or 0-0 is all I want for Christmas. Costa red would be icing on cake
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you did all in your head didn't you?
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Yep, taken me all day.
Nah I should've mentioned, all the info comes from here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/tyEj4ipz0_f0JBdfjk_oJcA/htmlview
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Nice work Innsie 😀
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All taken from the google doc in my comment above!
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Bojan Hattrick
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(C)osta
😎 -
Thanks, Innsie!
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What does all this mean for all us owners who have Costa and Hazard but neither as captain? Do we want them to score?
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I apologize for the length of this analysis, I just started crunching the numbers and had some fun with it so it kept growing. Anyway here's a summary of the data.
TL;DR - (The higher AND more similar their scores, the better). We certainly still DO want them to score points - the key for people in our situation being, is that the more SIMILAR their scores are, the better. They can score points for fun as long as they match each others outlay. In terms of who we would prefer to score higher or If only one of them were to return points, Hazard would be preferable as he is less captained. Unsurprisingly the worst result BY FAR is them both blanking/scoring low. Below is ranking of potential outcomes follwed by an example statistical summary for your scrutiny of my process, as it pertains to them and the top10k (i.e. the conclusions Innsie's data implied).
RANKING OF OUTCOMES:
1. SAME HIGH SCORE (i.e. Hazard 10/Costa 10) - Avg. gain of 2.63 pts vs top10k
2. HAZARD HIGH / COSTA MID (Hazard 10/Costa 6) - Avg. gain of 2.146 pts vs top10k
3. COSTA HIGH / HAZARD MID (Hazard 6/Costa 10) - Avg. gain of 2.062 pts vs top10k
4. HAZARD HIGH / COSTA LOW (Hazard 10/Costa 2) - Avg. gain of 1.662 pts vs top10k
5. BOTH MID (Hazard 6/Costa 6) - Avg. gain of 1.576 pts vs top10k
6. COSTA HIGH / HAZARD LOW (Hazard 2/Costa 10) - Avg. gain of 1.494 pts vs top10k
7. DOUBLE BLANK (Hazard 2/Costa 2) - Avg. gain of 0.526 pts vs top10k
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ex. HAZARD HIGH COSTA MID - Hazard 10 (X) + Costa 6 (Y) = 16
Hazard(c) WITH both [5.1%] - 26 (2X + Y)
Costa(c) WITH both [8.8%] - 22 (X + 2Y)
Hazard(c), NO Costa [1.5%] - 20 (2X)
Costa(c), NO Hazard [2.3%] - 12 (2Y)
Hazard AND Costa, NEITHER (c) [47.3%] - 16 (X+Y; "the Coldplay")
Only Hazard, not (c) [16.7%] - 10 (X)
Only Costa, not (c) [13.5%] - 6 (Y)
Neither [5%] - 0 (0X)
In this scenario we stand to:
-gain 16 points on 5% of top10k (0X)
-gain 10 points on 13.5% (Y)
-gain 6 points on 16.7% (X)
-match 47.3% of top10k (COLDPLAY)
-gain 4 points on 2.3% (2Y)
-lose 4 points on 1.5% (2X)
-lose 6 points on 8.8% (2Y + X)
lose 10 points on 5.1% (2X + Y)
For an average gain of 2.146 points on the top10k.
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I've started Yun 3 times now since gameweek 13 and he has returned me a grand total of 1 point. That's 0.33 points/game. Not bad for a player sitting at fourth on the watchlist for defenders.
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We get what we pay for 😆
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🙂
(i)? -
Solid decision making, perhaps a bit unlucky with your benching decisions?
Baines has got me exactly 1 PPG for the last 6 weeks at nearly double the price!-
Therefore yun is twice as good value as baines. What a bargain
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Yes that's been bad, but he's averaging 4.7ppg. Not too shabby.
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Surely Yun should be your 14th outfield player who only gets called upon when absolutely down to bare bones.
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Yun, hutton and dummet should all be my 14th outfield player granville but i got to play one of them
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Same with Yun, Hutton, Bartley. Started Bartley once since gameweeks 13. 6 points. Hutton twice. 8 + 1 point. Yun is the only one to not deliver when called upon.
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I would play Hutton out of that rogues gallery.
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😯 Cornerstone of my defence
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At least he got me one cleanie against Burnley. Doesn't take the sting off starting him over Clyne this GW
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What?!
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Southampton had tons of players missing and had lost five in a row. Not one I regret since I was always starting Yun. I'm more mad about Bony not staying on the bench
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😆 😆
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The trouble with players like Yun is that you need to keep funds in case you want to get rid.
I had to get rid of him but had to sell Rooney (no real loss) as an enabler to upgrade Yun.
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Half the planet could be eradicated by ebola and that TY guy from ArsenalFanTV would still find positives in it.
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😆
Did you see the Clause video? "Christmas is ruined!!" 😆-
Haha I feel bad for the guy honestly. Apparently he sits in the back with TY on the bus to away games. I think anyone would be broken at this point.
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They are both loons. Great entertainment! 😀
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If you can't find positives in half the planet's population being wiped out, you can't find positives in anything.
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Well.. yeh, this actually! 😀
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I'm sure we'd struggle on with 4 billion.
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Arsenal had the lowest possession (35%) and faced the most shots (27) since Opta started in 2003.
We were lucky to get a point apparently.-
I'm a Liverpool fan, but I don't think we were that good.
We turned like tanks and took too long to pass forward.-
Plenty of shots on target.
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Our final ball was terrible
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Those stats aren't fair I don't think. We were chasing the game and we took a lot of shots from improbable places - and we had a lot of possession without creating much in the first half
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The reverse Happens to arsenal everyweek
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Liverpool deserved 3 points and to be fair, if Sturridge played, the game would have been over within 30 minutes. That being said, both teams were there for the taking in the final 20 minutes
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We would have wiped ManU out too. Pity.
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Sturridge massive miss. Not an excuse though, spent over 100m
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We were dreadful. Coudn't string two passes together, couldn't hold the ball up, awful defending, especially from Flamini.
Spineless team.
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Finally cracked the top 50k for the first time this season, I've taken my time!!
Thanks Mr. Tilimon-
Huzzah! or Hazard!
Take your pic.
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I wonder if anyone that still has 3 Chelsea , a captain out of those 3 , and maybe a autosub too all still to play , that has a green arrow already
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3 out of 5
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That's still good going , I have 3 too but red arrow
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Austin (C) has done wonders for my GW
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and bego
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UFPL I have a green arrow, 4 to play and hazard or costa captain to come
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Well done TL
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o/
Azpi, Haz(c), Costa to come. Austin, Yaya Guzan, Dummett points to come off the bench. The average may get hit a bit 😆-
wtf lol
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That's crazy ! Good on you , you must be buzzing to see your arrow tomorrow 🙂
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Think guy in my ML has all those and his auto sub is Austin
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This guy has this aswell: http://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/2643336/event-history/17/
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he's a dumbass. Doesn't deserve those pts
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Looks like he has given up
But perfect example of why you should get half points or something for bench players
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i have azpi, hazard and terry. naylor to climb off the bench and up 20 thousand places to 35k. captain's played tho
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Am I the only one that thinks it's completely ridiculous that Ki was awarded all three baps after that goal?
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He was Ki to the goal being scored
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But it was Ki who unlocked the defense
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He had the secret
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Thems the rules. With any set statistical stsfem there will be a fair number of anomalies in calculating them
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Welbeck played 90 minutes today? Didn't even notice him.
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Passenger. He's average. Been saying it for ages
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if he doesn't score he is average? Welbeck is more than goals, his off the ball movent allowing for others to get space is great.
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Lol. Wow
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Welbeck a tool. Not a good enough scorer for a forward
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It's alright though, he's erm, movement off the ball *which is defensive* creates space for others
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Henderson tripped over him a few times
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Baines and Siggy > Debuchy and ADM for a hit
How's it look?-
Dont take hits. For all you know the former will probably outscore the latter
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Don't take hits.....ever?
That's flawed advice mate come on 😉-
During the festive period
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Do you like the look of the moves or no good?
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Nope from me
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Cheers Berbz
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What kind of logic is that?
Don't make any transfers at all while you're at it, incase the ones you transfer out outscore the ones you transfer in.-
Take hits during the next 10 days and tell me how it goes
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agree. taking hits during this period of rotation is nuts. you'll take a hit just to watch them sit out the game. learned this the hard way last year. Man City rested all their top players vs. a woeful Crystal Palace.
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Never dont take hits. For all you know the latter will probably absolutely outscore the former.
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😉
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Nonetheless, I'd give Baines & Siggy another week if I'm honest
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not a fan of Arsenal defense. They gave up two lousy goals today. Debuchy won't score that often, and is a YC magnet at time.
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They will tighten up when kos is back.
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Is it time to sell Sanchez?
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good god no.
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Of course not
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No
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The burning question.
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you might be on to something
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Or on something.
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Ha ha!
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Yes
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before QPR is madness, rest talk is only speculation.
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No - it was two weeks ago, now.
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At first this seems like a stupid comment but with giroud fit he is still playing very wide but has still returned 9,5,9 and 2 in the last month... I would still hold mate
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Yes. He had one blank in a row now. Gotta go.
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First season playing this game, currently sitting on 12K. Is this considered good?
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Considered Great!
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Cheers mate! Good to hear
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brilliant bud! 🙂
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Thats great rank! 🙂
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Very good and the best of luck!
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for a first seasoner, yep. keep on chuggin
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Loving the feedback, this is a great community! Find myself on here during work most days now...
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link up your team, get a grav and get involved! 🙂
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How's it going at Palace?
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Pretty good, everyone keeps telling me to get a better haircut mind you
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B
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Overall Rank Check Time:
Rank 1st - 1105pts
Rank 100 - 1042pts
Rank 1000 - 1004pts
Rank 10,000 - 952pts
Rank 50,000 - 904pts
Rank 100,000 - 881pts
Rank 200,000 - 854pts-
49 points from top 1k.
Impossible is nothing-
well done mate. cracking stuff. I'm just enjoying the fact I've risen a bit the last few weeks!
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Cheers mate. Great rank yourself!
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Only 196pts away from top : - )
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100 from number 1 🙂
100 from 50,000 🙁-
this.. i hate this
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Nice! You have to cover around only 5pts per week which is possible on paper 🙂
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Nice score this week (looks over shoulder)
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Tomorrow please, I have my captain yet to play! 🙂
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Hmmm... Thanks FFS 😀
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Oh sooo close 44 points from top 1K.
I should be happy considering this time last year I was 250K
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Cazorla won't be rotated against QPR.
As usual, Arsenal don't have enough fit options.-
yeah this is a good point
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He'll play for sure, but is it worth bringing him in when hes on 4 yellows, and also has a couple of tough away games coming up too?
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Best Liverpool defender to get until the wc?
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None?
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But fixtures are sooooo good...
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But they are soooooo bad!
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This is soooo true 🙂
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Played quite ok yesterday. Coutinho was good, bur him I would never buy. Sterling is temting, his pace is unreal
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One who isnt playing 🙂
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reported.
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😆
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No such number, no such name! Return to sender!
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Ok ok - then city defender?
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Zabaleta. But I am looking at Hart.
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Cheers. Will he play all three?
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Mmm. I really don't know. Sorry.
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Cheers!
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Its like asking what is the best STD to catch lol
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Lol
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Kolo or Skrtel
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Škrtel
But I would stay far away from Liverpool defense and I'm a Liverpool fan.
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So I think I've settled on the christmas special....
Competition where people pick 3 punts (def-mid-fwd) all under 3% ownership and whoever gets the highest total score gets a 10 quid amazon voucher....
sound good?-
sounds interesting
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Kolo Toure
Phillipe Coutinho
Steven Fletcher-
do it on the article 2moz
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Why don't you do something on punts of players that will play both games on 26th and 28th ?
Would love to see that, can see most teams only having 8 or 9 players each time.n-
has been mentioned but doesn't really tie in with my usual article
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You reckon Marney -> Milner is the best way to use FT? Leaves 0.6 ITB and gets me:
Foster
Ivan Baines Naylor
Sanchez Haz(vc) Siggy Milner
Bony(c) Costa Austin
BENCH: Krul - Downing - Bertrand - Moore
Cheers and Merry Xmas everyone.-
Anyone ?
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It could work really well but for the next few gws only mate
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Nice team!
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looks good. Milner > marney anyway
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Rise: Kane
Fall: Mirallas, Mulumbu-
Cheers.
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Finally 😆
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22nd: Stoke v Chelsea
26th: Chelsea v West Ham
28th: Southampton v Chelsea
3 games in 6 days.-
Some FT players will be rested for Chelsea.
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Really? I thought same starting XI every game.
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I think resting Azpi is just the start...with so many games he will change it round.
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Damn, I thought my Chelsea players were nailed on 🙁 better get them out then
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😀
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that's 7 days.
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It's not that bad if you think about it. It's like when Chelsea have a UCL tie, BPL game on the weekend before hand, UCL game midweek and then another BPL game on the following weekend, three games in a week.
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"there was contact"!
footballing phrase that annoys me most-
* --> "That would have gone in if it was just an inch lower / the keeper hadn't saved it!"
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Yep. Basically an excuse for diving.
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Football is a non-contact sport these days
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I fondly remember the days when you could make the generalization that it was all foreigners who dived, but it's as much the English players now as it is anybody.
The faking of injury and holding of the face is what annoys me the most though, I'd take diving over that any day. -
Andy Townsend likes his "if he doesn't make as good as a contact, its in the back of the net." Or "if he scuffs that, its in."
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"I know Agbonlahor (or pick any other listed PL player), he's not that type of player", FFS
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Double pivot is mine. Ugghhh!
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I think one of the most stupid FPL decisions I have made in a while is captained Costa over Austin
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Very stiff mate
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You never know until after tomorrows game,Costa could score 4
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God I hope not
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Not yet...
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total nonsense, what are you talking about?
really hate these post mortem (and chelsea haven't even played in this case) rubbish posts.
captain hindsight crap, unless you're joking-
This. The worst are those moaning about captain fails 20mins into the game.
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I can't imagine getting this angry over a regretful post about captaincy.
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This. Especially when the captain hasn't played yet.
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