Many of us will have experienced how our own performance — at work, in sports or in other areas of life — can become less focused for a while after targets we have set ourselves have been achieved. Psychological studies have identified the quality of “mental toughness” as being very important in sports and performances in other fields and a research team at the University of Hull have recently proposed that this “mental toughness” can be identified as consisting of four key elements: confidence, commitment, control and challenge.
This is of interest to a Fantasy Football manager because mid-table teams or others “with nothing to play for” can sometimes under-perform or perform differently. In the case of already-relegated teams I can even remember examples of improved performance — when the worst has happened and the players and staff are liberated from a struggle they had been failing in.
Confidence, commitment, control and challenge
Looking at the “Four Cs” we can see the following:
- Confidence – for a mid-table team this should be fairly neutral, they have performed adequately at least;
- Commitment – how committed players and teams are to attain maximum performance after targets have been reached will be variable, some may already be “on the beach”;
- Control – the influence of managers and club owners is influential here. Mike Ashley’s apparent satisfaction with Premier League survival and not being overly concerned about cups or anything else certainly seems to have created an environment of malaise at Newcastle for example;
- Challenge – this is the big one. How do you maintain motivation and the willingness to make sacrifices and give 100% when targets have already been reached?
How teams will deal with these variables will vary, of course. But I thought it would be interesting to appraise the “mid-table teams” and see which ones might be expected to be taking their foot off the pedal.
The Mid Table Sides
Southampton and Spurs are realistically not going to reach Champions League qualification but are almost assured of a Europa League place unless Aston Villa beat Arsenal in the FA Cup Final. The question is do either team really want to be in the Europa League? I think there is more ambivalence about it at Spurs than at Southampton. Ronald Koeman is a Dutch manager and the Europa League is usually more highly regarded in that country.
Both teams have had decent seasons so confidence should not be an issue. But in the other three areas (commitment, control, challenge) the general attitude at the club will be influential. Taking this into account I would expect a greater likelihood of Spurs easing off than Southampton.
Swansea and Stoke have both been safe for quite some time and both teams have arguably exceeded expectations this season. However they both also have motivated younger managers and some leaders in their squads (Williams, Shawcross). I’d expect a bit of easing off (maybe more in Stoke’s case) but perhaps nothing extreme.
West Ham are perhaps the most likely candidates to under-perform despite having relatively easy fixtures. The Sam Allardyce situation, in which rumours continue that his job is at risk, has been badly handled but his ability to motivate a squad when they are safe hardly helps his cause.
Everton and Palace are also both safe now but have got there thanks to a good recent run of form. I think the overspill of that may last a while yet, especially in Everton’s case because there are some very experienced players at that club who won’t be happy at their generally poor season. In Palace’s case their fixtures are awful anyway; if they lose the next three it will be no surprise really.
West Brom and Newcastle are in similar positions in that neither is mathematically safe yet though both might already have enough points. In the case of West Brom, Pulis’ position as a recent appointment will probably mean continuing commitment as they start to build for next season. In Newcastle’s case, however, it seems that they thought they were safe two months ago — Ashley’s interim appointment of Carver suggested that — and that the players are already on the beach having put a few extra holiday pounds of weight on. That will be hard to reverse now.
Conclusion
Therefore, according to my appraisal, the teams most likely to be below par in the remaining games are Spurs, Stoke, West Ham and Newcastle. Sides with fixtures against those four teams may have an easier job than might have been the case earlier in the season. Fantasy Premier League managers with assets from those teams may want to think twice about keeping them.
Meanwhile, Everton are among my picks of the mid-table sides with the motivation to perform well as the season draws to a close.
