Sleeper – Romelu Lukaku

Our “Sleeper” series of articles focusses on those previously profitable Fantasy assets who underperformed in the season gone by. Everton’s Romelu Lukaku fits that description perfectly.

Following a successful loan spell at Everton during the 2013/14 season, where he scored 15 league goals, hopes were high for the big Belgian last time out. Lukaku made his move to Goodison Park permanent, signing for a club record fee of £28m from Chelsea, after making only 15 appearances during his time at Stamford Bridge.

Handed a price tag of 9.0 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game, the Toffees frontman made a reasonable start to last season, scoring twice and providing an assist during the first five Gameweeks. Following blanks against Liverpool and Manchester United, he found the net four times in his next seven outings, although crucially, he failed to register a single double-figure haul over that period.

The 22-year-old forward endured a barren spell between Gameweek 15 and 22, registering just a single assist, before grabbing the winner in the 1-0 victory at Crystal Palace on January 31.

The second half of the season again highlighted the Belgian’s inability to register consistent attacking returns, scoring attacking points in just four of his final 13 appearances. Lukaku’s first double-digit haul came in the 3-0 win against Newcastle in Gameweek 29, while his highest score of the season arrived against West Ham in Gameweek 37, where he bagged a goal, an assist and full bonus in the 2-1 win.

Although he excelled in the Europa League by scoring eight times, Lukaku was far from prolific on the domestic stage and converted just 9.5% of his scoring opportunities. The Toffees striker ranked joint 20th among forwards for bonus points (with 12 accrued), compared to eighth for total points. He ended the campaign with 135 points, less than he had managed over the previous two seasons (168 and 159), averaging just 3.75 points per appearance.

THE PROSPECTS

Partly due to their involvement in the Europa League, it’s fair to say that the Merseysiders endured a difficult year. Manager Roberto Martinez never seemed entirely sure on whom to play in tandem with Lukaku, and with rest and rotation rife, the likes of Ross Barkley, Aiden McGeady, Kevin Mirallas, Steven Naismith, Aaron Lennon, Leon Osman, Arouna Koné and Samuel Eto’o were all tried in the positions behind the striker.

This time around, though, the Toffees won’t have the distractions of the Europa League, which has seen the league form of the likes of Tottenham, Swansea and Stoke also suffer in recent years. Hopes are high, then, that, with less need to tinker due to fatigue, Martinez’ side will replicate the displays that saw them earn a fifth-placed finish in his first year at the helm in 2013/14.

Despite hinting at his preference Champions League football, Lukaku is expected to stay at Goodison for the season ahead and a price of 8.5 to 9.0 is anticipated for a player who is now the Toffees number one spot-kick taker, having usurped Leighton Baines in the pecking order.

One look at the underlying stats certainly bodes well for Lukaku’s prospects in 2015/16. As the focal points of his side’s attack, the target man sat fifth amongst forwards for total attempts (105, just eight less than Harry Kane), whilst Lukaku’s tally of 66 efforts inside the box was just one less than both Harry Kane and Diego Costa. Sitting fourth amongst frontmen for attempts on target (41) in 2014/15, and fifth for chances created (38), Lukaku – as he’s shown before – could be a real Fantasy force if he and his team-mates can start sticking away their opportunities with greater regularity.

On the downside, the opening schedule has done little to persuade us he will be worthy of our initial investment. Aside from their home opener against Watford, Martinez’ men then face a run which pits them against last season’s top eight, in addition to a trip to West Brom, in the following nine fixtures. Given that the schedule eases significantly from Gameweek 11 onwards, many Fantasy managers will be happy to afford Lukaku the chance to ease his way into the new campaign before eyeing up his potential acquisition.